DFS Alerts

Glenn Robinson (calf) questionable for Monday

Robinson has been upgraded to questionable after missing the last 11 games with a calf strain. He’s probably not going to have much of an impact if he plays tomorrow. Lance Stephenson was signed after Robinson went down and he played well against LeBron and the Cavs on Saturday, earning 27 minutes. He could continue to see 25+ in this series while Paul George pushes towards 40. Monta Ellis and C.J. Miles combined for another 43 minutes in Game 1. There might not be enough minutes for Robinson to become relevant in fantasy.

Jusuf Nurkic (leg) ruled OUT for Portland

Nurkic was considered questionable heading into Sunday, but he’s been ruled out ahead of Portland’s matchup with Golden State. His absence will help C.J. McCollum, whose usage drops 5.2% when he shares the court with Nurkic. He’s been a streaky scorer lately and his matchup tonight will make it tough to get hot; Golden State has allowed opponents the lowest field goal percentage this season (43.5%). Al-Farouq Aminu should receive a boost in minutes without the injured center, which makes him an interesting mid-range option. Aminu has been playing well over the past four weeks, his usage is up 1.4% and his per-36 fantasy production has risen to 29.14 FD points. He should get into the 30s tonight.

Wayne Selden will start in place of Tony Allen Saturday

Allen is out dealing with a calf injury, allowing the rookie Selden to earn his third start as a member of the Grizzlies. Selden is not an appealing target as he returns 0.47 FD ppm when Allen is off the court. Although Mike Conley has only played 55.5 minutes in this situation, his usage increased 2.5%; it’s a small sample size, but it’s reasonable to expect a similar trend over a longer period of time. Allen’s absence is an obvious upgrade for the Spurs offense, particularly Kawhi Leonard, as Allen ranks 45th in the league in DRPM (1.95) while Selden is 246th (-0.16). After failing to exceed 33.4 FD points in the first two meetings with Memphis, Allen missed their third matchup, and Leonard lit it up for 57.4 FD points. James Ennis started that game, he ranks 79th in DRPM (1.40), so Selden getting the nod is an added bonus.

Dennis Schroder (foot) and Kent Bazemore (knee) both probable for Sunday

These injuries don’t seem to be major issues and they’re both expected to play in Game 1 of their first-round series with the Wizards. Bazemore will come off the bench tomorrow, but he’s excelled since being removed from the starting lineup upon returning from injury. He’s actually led the team in per-minute fantasy production (1.19 DK ppm), returning an extra 0.36 DK ppm above his average rate. 47.7% of field goals come from mid-range or above the break; on the season, Washington has allowed the third-highest field goal percentage from mid-range (43.4%) and the highest from above the break (38.3%). While he’s been enjoying the softer defenses of his opponent’s second units, he’s only eclipsed 20 minutes twice in the six games since his return. He should be afforded more playing time in the playoffs and that makes him an interesting GPP value option. Schroder has struggled against Washington this season, averaging 15.3 points and 4.0 assists across four contests. He’s been held under 22 FD points in three of the four contests and his best score was 28.9 FD points back in November.

Matt Barnes (ankle) ruled out for Sunday

Barnes missed the final two games of the season as he rehabs his ankle issue, he won’t be available to play tomorrow when the Warriors host the Trail Blazers. His absence won’t have too much of an impact on the Warriors’ fantasy outlook now the Kevin Durant is fully healthy. In the 2016 playoffs the Warriors routinely gave sixth-man, Andre Iguodala, 30+ minutes off the bench after averaging 26.6 during the regular season (he averaged 26.3 this year). They should follow a similar pattern with Iggy in the 2017 postseason, and Barnes’ absence will help ensure that. As a result, Iguodala will be a nice value option. He enjoyed playing Portland this season, averaging 0.82 FD ppm, which represents a 7.9% boost above his normal rate.

Dwyane Wade expected to play at least 30 minutes Sunday

Wade (elbow) was restricted to 25 minutes or less in the final three games of the regular season after returning from an 11-game absence. He’s now expected to return towards his normal minutes and is expected to play a little more than 30 tomorrow against the Celtics. When Wade is on the floor, he leads the team in usage (31.9%) and per-minute fantasy production (1.10 DK ppm). Butler loses 4.6% off his usage rate (23.7%) and 0.18 DK ppm (1.01). Wade is $4,300 cheaper than Butler on DraftKings ($5,900 vs. $10,200); even though he’s more of a GPP option with his injury, he’s definitely in play with his increased workload.

Allen Crabbe (foot) probable for Sunday

Crabbe is fully expected to play after missing the final three games of the regular season. He will take away minutes from Evan Turner and that’s a good thing for both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. When Crabbe is on the floor, Lillard’s usage bumps up 2.7% and his per-minute production rate jumps 0.11 FD ppm to 1.26. McCollum’s usage rises an equal amount to 31.7% while his per-minute production increases 0.03 FD ppm to 0.99. When Turner is on the floor, their usage rates increase less than 1%, Lillard’s fantasy production remains even and McCollum’s drops 0.03 FD ppm.

Ian Mahinmi (calf) ruled out for Sunday

Mahinmi is expected to miss at least the first two games of Washington’s series with Atlanta as he rehabs a calf strain. This could mean more time for Jason Smith off the bench and for Marcin Gortat. After missing the first few months of the season, Mahinmi began taking minutes from Gortat in February, which left the starting center in the mid-20s most nights. Prior to Mahinmi’s return, Gortat routinely playing into the 30s, but he only passed that mark three times since the beginning of March. As a result, Gortat’s fantasy production and salary fell. Washington will need a big man in to compete with Dwight Howard on the glass, which means Gortat’s deflated price tag could turn into a bargain for the first couple games of this series.

Jusuf Nurkic (leg) questionable for Sunday

Nurkic missed the final seven games of the season with a leg fracture, but coach Terry Stotts said Nurkic’s status is “undetermined” for Sunday’s game against the Warriors. While Nurkic’s presence would make the team better, he has a negative impact on everyone’s fantasy production, outside of Damian Lillard. Although Lillard’s usage decreases 1.3% when Nurkic is on the court, he manages an extra 1.16 FD points per 36 minutes, bringing his total to 42.65.

Milwaukee posted the second-worst rebounding rate in the NBA after the all-star break

With little value available at shooting guard and small forward on Saturday’s slate, saving cap space at other positions may be vital to success. Milwaukee’s poor rebounding – their overall rebounding rate was 47.3% after the all-star break – may open up a nice spot for Jonas Valanciunas, who commands a reasonable $5.5k salary at both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Raptors’ starting center nearly averaged a double-double this season (12.0 points, 9.5 rebounds per game) and he’s demonstrated a high ceiling relative to his price. Catching those ceiling games can be tough as his primary drawback is his inconsistency in both scoring and rebounding. Clearly, he has a favorable matchup for the latter. It also helps that when he’s on the floor he grabs 20.8% of the total rebounds available, which is the sixth-best rate in the league this year (and is now a top-100 performance all-time for a single season). As for scoring, it looks promising as teams have repeatedly attacked the Bucks by going close to the rim. They’ve allowed the seventh-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket since the break, which is where 63.2% of Valanciunas’ made field goals came from this season. Milwaukee is in the bottom seven in opponent field goal attempts from all other distances outside of 25-29 feet. Although they’ve allowed the fewest field goal attempts from 5-9 feet, they’ve allowed the third-worst field goal percentage from that range, 46.6%, and Valanciunas makes 57.8% of his shots from there. All in all, 80.3% of his made baskets came from within 9 feet and the Bucks struggle to defend that area.

Milwaukee’s weaknesses will certainly benefit the center, but the time he has on the floor to exploit them may be an issue. On the season, he averages just 26.5 minutes. Fortunately, that trended upwards towards the end of the season. Discounting the final two games when everyone was limited, he earned at least 28 minutes in five of the last six outings and he managed to hit the 30-minute mark against the Heat on April 7th. With tighter rotations for the playoffs, he will hopefully keep receiving some extra time on the court. If he’s given that opportunity, he could have a very nice series.

Salaries released for first day of NBA playoffs

Both major sites have LeBron James as the most expensive player ($11k FD; $10.8k DK), which is to be expected. Not far behind him at the small forward position is Paul George, who reached the $10k mark on FanDuel ($9.8k DK), while Kawhi Leonard is nearly $3k cheaper than James on the site. Ahead of his tough matchup with Memphis, Leonard has been priced down to $8.3k ($8.5k DK), well off his $9.9k ($10.0k DK) asking price in mid-march. Over the course of the season, he played the Grizzlies three times. In the two matchups when Tony Allen was active, Leonard failed to exceed 33.4 FD points, but when Allen missed the third, Leonard managed to score 32 actual points and grab 12 rebounds on his way to 57.4 FD points. Allen exited Memphis’ season finale early; he’s currently out indefinitely and considered doubtful for their series with the Spurs.

One of the more notable price discrepancies between the two sites lies with Kyrie Irving; he’s the most expensive point guard on FanDuel at $9.0K, but he’s fourth on DraftKings at $7.8k. He’s done well against the Pacers this season, scoring at least 23 points and contributing exactly seven assists in all four games.

There are no mid-range options at shooting guard for this slate. After Giannis Antetokounmp ($10.4k FD; $10.2k DK), who only has SG eligibility on FanDuel, and DeMar DeRozan ($8.3k FD; $8.0k DK), there’s a large drop to the next option, J.J. Redick ($4.4k FD; $4.6k DK). When Austin Rivers went down with a hamstring injury on March 29th, Redick earned 33 minutes made the most of it by dropping 31 points. In the past seven games, he’s topped 27 FD points four times. He shot an unsustainable 53.1% from the field during that stretch though, and he’s struggled against Utah all season, failing to top 18.7 FD points in four attempts. Without any other value options immediately sticking out, as Rodney Hood ($4k FD; $4.4k DK) has been battling a knee injury lately that’s suppressed his minutes, it’s clear that shooting guard will be one of the toughest positions to figure out on Saturday.

Tony Allen (calf) out indefinitely

Allen exited the season finale early after suffering the injury and he’s considered doubtful for Memphis’ series with San Antonio. Over the course of the season Kawhi Leonard played the Grizzlies three times. In the two matchups when Tony Allen was active, Leonard failed to exceed 33.4 FD points, but when Vince Carter replaced him in the starting lineup, Leonard managed to score 32 actual points and grab 12 rebounds on his way to 57.4 FD points. Ahead of his tough matchup with Memphis, Leonard has been priced down to $8.3k ($8.5k DK), well off his $9.9k ($10.0k DK) asking price in mid-march.

Tyreke Evans (sore big toe) ruled out tonight

Evans will not play in tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers due to a sore right big toe despite never appearing on the Kings’ injury report at any point throughout the day. This will leave the Kings with just seven active players with Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, Garrett Temple, Kosta Koufos, and Anthony Tolliver all unavailable for tonight’s contest. This makes the Kings one of the top teams to target on the late slate solely based on the expected minute floors of players like Buddy Hield and Willie Cauley-Stein. The last time both Collison and Lawson were sidelined for the same game, Langston Galloway saw a whopping 37 minutes of action and handled a majority of the ball handling responsibilities.

Al-Farouq Aminu (rest) ruled out tonight

Aminu will be rested and won’t play in tonight’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans. He’ll join Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Allen Crabbe among the unavailable Trail Blazers for Wednesday’s contest, while Moe Harkless will play, according to Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts, after being a surprise DNP-CD in the previous game. With the aforementioned players unavailable in Monday’s contest, Shabazz Napier put up a monster performance relative to his price tag in 37 minutes, making him the preferred target on this Portland squad along with Evan Turner since the availability of Harkless should be canceled out by the fact that Aminu will not play due to rest purposes.

Nicolas Brussino and Dwight Powell will start for Mavericks tonight

With Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, J.J Barea, and Seth Curry off the floor and Brussino and Powell on, Powell sees a giant 9.7% bump in usage and his per-minute production rises 0.30 FD ppm to 1.19. That’s over a 166.5-minute sample size, so while it’s not as big as we’d like, it’s pretty decent. He’ll be a really solid value option tonight.