DFS Alerts
Lions don't expect Dwayne Washington to play
The Washington Redskins are an ideal matchup for RBs. Usually we can’t target the Lions’ backfield though because carries are too hard to predict. That should be easier this week though as the Lions are expected to have just two active RBs. Justin Forsett and Zach Zenner are expected to split carries. Last week in the same situation, Zenner out snapped Forsett 48 to 12. It is worth noting that Forsett was only signed in the week prior to that game. Even in an excellent matchup, Forsett and Zenner are probably just GPP options. It’s probably still safer just to use Mike Gillislee splitting carries with LeSean McCoy (if McCoy plays). The Lions are more likely to go pass-heavy this week using check downs to Tate and Bolden as their de facto running game.
As reported by: Ian Rapoport Other tagged players: Justin Forsett
Andy Dalton could be your cash game QB
The Cleveland Browns have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. They’ve also allowed two or more passing touchdowns in 14 of their last 15 games. In their last four games they’ve actually allowed Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady and Marcus Mariota to throw three touchdowns each. There’s been plenty of talk about A.J. Green getting things right this week but many have neglected to mention the guy throwing him the ball. Dalton is the 7th most-expensive QB on FanDuel but he’s much more affordable on DraftKings where he’s the 13th most-expensive. Dalton is certainly usable in cash games especially for those looking to pivot off Jameis Winston.
As reported by: Evan Silva Matchups Column Odell Beckham officially active Sunday morning
It wasn’t necessarily a huge question whether Beckham would play this week. The bigger issue here is that there was obvious concern in warm ups that Beckham isn’t right. If you are playing the Sunday morning slate that includes the London game it makes sense to avoid Beckham. He’ll play but there are questions about how effective he’ll be.
As reported by: Adam Schefter LeSean McCoy expected to be active but limited
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter the Bills expect LeSean McCoy to be active today. McCoy will likely be limited to 25-35 plays though. McCoy obviously isn’t usable based on his expected volume but this also takes away most of the value Mike Gillislee had as a punt option. Those looking for a value RB should consider Spencer Ware and Jacquizz Rodgers instead.
As reported by: Adam Schefter Other tagged players: Mike Gillislee Buffalo Bills defense is one to target in Week 7
One of the first things to look for when rostering a defense is whether they can get pressure on a quarterback. Pressure leads to sacks, turnovers, and in turn, fantasy points. When looking at adjusted sack rates, a fantastic metric from Football Outsiders, something jumps out immediately: the Bills defense ranks first at 9.3% and Miami’s offense ranks dead last at 9.1%. In terms of raw numbers, the Bills have the second-most sacks with 20, while Miami has allowed the fourth-most with 17. Buffalo ranks fourth in turnovers forced per drive (0.167) and Miami commits turnovers at the eight-highest rate (0.157). Another great aspect of this matchup is that the Dolphins best receiver, Jarvis Landry, will line up across from the Bills’ best corner, Nickell Robey-Coleman, on roughly three quarters of his snaps. Robey-Coleman has earned a stellar 85.4 grade from Pro Football Focus, which is seventh. He only gives up 0.19 fantasy points per route defended, good for 17th in the league. As a bonus, the game’s total has been trending downward, dropping from 45.5 to 44, leaving Miami with an implied total of 20.5 points. New England, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Denver and Baltimore have all been getting a lot of attention heading into Week 7, which will suppress Buffalo’s ownership levels. It’s shaping up as a great week to roster the Bills’ DST.
As reported by: Football Outsiders
Travis Benjamin fully expected to play Sunday
Beat writer Michael Gehlken reports the Chargers are “not concerned” about Benjamin’s status even though he’s listed as questionable. Despite being in the game with the highest total, Desmond Trufant may cover Benjamin a lot, which is good reason to fade the Chargers’ receiver. Atlanta is allowing opposing WR1s the third-fewest receptions (7.6) and fewest yards (51.6), in large part due to Trufant’s success. Benjamin’s presence in the lineup is good for Tyrell “The Gazelle” Williams as he’ll see less of Trufant, but the Falcons rank 5th in DVOA against WR2s, according to Football Outsiders. Their largest weaknesses in the passing game are defending tight ends and running backs. Hunter Henry is a strong play, even though Gates will cut into his workload; he still managed eight targets and a touchdown last week when both played against the Broncos.
As reported by: Michael Gehlken Other tagged players: Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry Will Fuller (hamstring) removed from injury report
Fuller was active last weekend, but didn’t make it onto the field. He has a tough matchup this week with Denver. Houston’s implied team total is a very low 16.25 points. The Broncos have an elite secondary that shut downs opposing receivers, and Houston has a struggling quarterback in Brock Oswieler. On average, Denver is allowing just 4.6 receptions and 30 yards per game to WR2s. It’s not the best time to roster Fuller even though he’s healthy.
As reported by: Aaron Wilson Jeremy Hill is a sneaky value option
Giovani Bernard has out-touched Hill two weeks in a row. It isn’t terribly surprising as Bernard, the passing down back, has had more snaps in every game the Bengals have lost this season. Hill has also been dealing with a shoulder injury, which limited him to four touches in Week 5 against the Cowboys. It may be the reason Cincinnati left Bernard in on the goal line against the Patriots, where he was repeatedly stuffed. Assuming there is no hidden information on his health (he’s off the injury report now), he has a very good potential to score on the weak Browns’ rush defense this weekend; Cincinnati should be able to move the ball into the red zone frequently, and will want to utilize Hill, the much bigger back, near the end zone. In general, he should get a ton of rushes, especially in the second half. The Bengals are 10-point favorites with an implied total of 27.5 points. On the surface it may seem like Bernard has taken over the backfield, but the trends of the past two weeks were primarily based on injuries and matchups. The expected game flow against Cleveland strongly favors Jeremy Hill. He’s only $4,000 on DraftKings ($800 less than Bernard), and is relatively cheap across the industry. He’ll likely have low ownership, with more people interested in Bernard and the other value running backs this week. It’s a great time to sneak Hill into some tournament lineups, especially on DK.
Other tagged players: Giovani Bernard Mike Evans without Vincent Jackson, by the numbers
Now that Vincent Jackson has been moved to the IR, Mike Evans is expected to see an increased workload. In six games without Jackson in 2015, Evans was targeted 12.5 times per game. That translates to a 54.1% increase from his 8.1 average with Jackson. Most notably, his average yards per game increased from 62.8 to 106.8, a 70.2% bump. Evans hasn’t been an efficient receiver during his NFL career; he’s caught 52.2% of his passes over three seasons. Without Jackson his efficiency dropped to 48.0%. He also failed to catch a touchdown in that split, despite seeing as many as 19 targets in a game. However, Evans had a touchdown slump in general during the 2015 season, only finding the end zone three times. He’s already exceeded that total this year (he has four). There are other important differences this year. Doug Martin and Charles Sims are also out and Austin Seferian-Jenkins is now in New York. Sims was 2nd on the team in targets last year, Martin was 4th, and ASF was 6th. Evans is going to get as much work as he can possibly handle going forward. The primary issue is that there are even fewer players for opposing defenses to worry about. We should expect a decrease in Evans’ efficiency, and it may be a larger dip than last year. The good news is that he should see a similar average yards per game as he saw last year without Jackson (he’s already averaging 89.8 this season), and he should definitely find the end zone plenty of times. He’ll be a volatile player, but his floor and ceiling will be high. In Week 7 he visits a San Francisco defense that plays better at home than away. In 2015, they only allowed seven passing touchdowns at home. In 2016 they’ve allowed four passing touchdowns at home (three games), and just 166.3 passing yards per game. Pro Football Focus grades their top three corners above 72.4. Evans should see a ton of opportunities, but it may be a tougher matchup than people expect. The 49ers will certainly make it a priority to shut Evans down.
Vernon Davis has a great matchup versus the Lions
While Vernon Davis isn’t the most talented TE, his matchup looks great on paper. The Lions have allowed a TE touchdown in 17 of their last 21 games. They’ve allowed seven touchdowns to TEs in six games this season. With Jordan Reed ruled out, Davis will draw the start this week. The only drawback here is that Davis has seen just four targets in each of his last two games. That said, the Redskins pass the ball on 73% of their offensive snaps. Davis is nowhere close to being a must-play though, he’s just someone to consider as a value TE.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Defense vs Position stats Other tagged players: Jordan Reed Joe Flacco (shoulder) will be active Sunday, expected to start
Flacco hasn’t been elite this year, throwing for just five touchdowns over six games. The Ravens visit the Jets this weekend, a team that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA metric. The Jets have allowed the highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (114.7), so on paper in looks like a great game for Flacco. However, we noted earlier in the week that there has been some reverse line movement on this game. At one point in the week 81% of all wagers placed came in on the Ravens, but despite this, the line shifted from favoring the Ravens by a point to favoring the Jets by two; a solid indication that a lot of sharp money is on New York. We saw similar movement against the Raiders last week, and their offense put up just ten points. It’s an ominous sign for the Ravens offense that will be without receiver Steve Smith. Although the Jets have struggled defending the pass, they kept Carson Palmer in check in Week 6, even though it was expected to be a nice bounce back spot for him. Flacco is in play for fantasy, but there are other options available at a similar price point. Andy Dalton is $200 more on DraftKings and he has a great matchup with the Browns. Kirk Cousins is another one; he’s $100 more on DK and facing the terrible Lions’ pass defense.
As reported by: ESPN Jay Ajayi will be Miami's lead back going forward
Ajayi broke out for 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers last week, which has earned him the starting role for the Dolphins. Arian Foster had beaten Ajayi for the job in training camp, but has been hobbled up by a hamstring injury since Week 2. As of now it looks like Ajayi will retain the feature role even when Foster is 100%. However, Foster will still be worked in and get some touches against Buffalo this weekend. The Bills rank 12th in rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders, whereas Pittsburgh ranks 17th. Both teams have allowed the same number of rushing touchdowns (6) and they give up a similar amount of rushing yards per game (Buffalo: 103.2; Pittsburgh: 101.2). Game flow really helped Ajayi last week, but it might not be so conducive to the run game in Week 7. Buffalo is favored by three, and Miami will likely play from behind in the second half. He should manage a decent volume either way, but he hasn’t been used too much in the passing game this season. While it’s unlikely that he’ll see 25 carries again, if the Dolphins stay hot, it’s possible. The good news is Ajayi’s price is still low across the industry, so he can be worked into tournament lineups pretty easily.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Arian Foster Denver altering run scheme, will give Devontae Booker more snaps
After averaging 141 rushing yards per game over the first two games, Denver has hit a wall; over the last four their average has fallen to 77.25 yards per game. Head coach Gary Kubiak wants to shake things up a bit on the ground and that will include getting Booker more playing time. Booker, a rookie out of Utah, has averaged 4.7 yards per carry while Denver’s starter, C.J. Anderson, has averaged 3.5 ypc (Anderson has a much bigger sample size though; he’s run the ball 94 times to Booker’s 34). Booker has looked explosive, he reads the line of scrimmage very well, and he’s a solid receiving back (he’s caught eight of 11 targets so far). Although Anderson will remain the starter, his fantasy value will take a hit as his volume is set to decrease. This is unfortunate because Denver plays Houston this weekend, a team that’s allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns per game and fourth-most rushing yards per game. Anderson is still in play for fantasy this weekend as Denver is favored by 8 points and Houston has a much better pass defense. However, the potential time share is definitely something to keep in mind when constructing lineups. Booker still isn’t a strong play, but he may become one. The good news for Anderson is that we’re almost at the halfway point in the season. He’s led the NFL in total yards after Week 8 in each of the past two seasons.
As reported by: CBS Denver Other tagged players: C.J. Anderson Tampa Bay not sure when Doug Martin will return
Head coach Dirk Koetter said he doesn’t know when Martin (hamstring) will be able to play again. He’s definitely out this week, but it’s possible he misses more time. Jacquizz Rodgers will be the lead back this weekend and makes for a great value play. Last game he had 35 touches, and this week he faces a 49ers team that’s allowed a 100-yard rusher in five straight games.
As reported by: Alex Marvez Cecil Shorts to start for Vincent Jackson
Shorts hasn’t played since injuring his hamstring in Week 2. He’ll start on the outside opposite Mike Evans and Adam Humphries will stay in the slot. Shorts has one reception for 12 yards this season. Last year he averaged 3.8 receptions, 44 yards, and 0.18 touchdowns per game with the Texans, although he primarily played the slot. He isn’t a viable fantasy play; expect Mike Evans and Cameron Brate to pick up most of Jackson’s workload.
As reported by: Alex Marvez