DFS Alerts
Will Fuller ruled out for Week 13
Fuller has missed the past two games and still hasn’t returned to practice since injuring his ribs. DeAndre Hopkins picked up ten targets last week and finished with seven catches for 125 yards against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Struggling quarterback Tom Savage will continue to lean on Hopkins plenty when they take on the Titans, whose defense is giving up the seventh-most PPR points to WRs. Hopkins has accounted for 33% of Savage’s targets over the past four games. He could be followed by Adoree’ Jackson, who’s allowed a friendly 0.3 fantasy points per route run along with a 60% catch rate (per PFF). Bruce Ellington will serve as the WR2. He’s picked up at least seven targets in each of the past four games but he’s only averaged 4.0 receptions and 38.8 yards during that stretch while scoring once.
Charcandrick West and LB Dee Ford ruled out for Week 13
West will miss the game for personal reasons. His absence should provide Kareem Hunt more snaps and a bigger role in the passing game this weekend. Head coach Andy Reid told reporters he wouldn’t be bringing anyone up from the practice squad, meaning Kansas City will only have two backs active on Sunday with Akeem Hunt serving as the backup.
Other tagged players: Kareem Hunt Broncos DT Domata Peko, DE Derek Wolfe, and RG Ronald Leary ruled out for Week 13
Peko suffered an MCL sprain while Wolfe is dealing with a neck injury which can be very tricky. Both players are among the top 34 interior defenders in PFF’s run defense grading out of 121 qualifiers, so their absence will be a nice upgrade for Kenyan Drake on the ground. He’s been splitting time with Damien Williams and they’ve combined for 22.5 touches per game since the Jay Ajayi trade. With Williams (shoulder) out and Senorise Perry (concussion) questionable at best, Drake could take on the vast majority of that workload on Sunday. The Broncos have struggled a bit with backs in the passing game too; they’ve given up the most receiving touchdowns to the position (0.55/g). The Raiders took advantage of that vulnerability after they lost Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree with Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington combining for an 8/8/79/1 line. Over the past four weeks, Drake and Williams have combined for 6.0 receptions per game. On the offensive side of things, Leary’s absence could cause some trouble. He’s PFF’s 12th-ranked guard by grading and in pass blocking efficiency. Fortunately for Denver, the Dolphins are just 24th in adjusted sack rate (per FO).
Other tagged players: Kenyan Drake Dolphins RG Jermon Bushrod and Damien Williams ruled out
It’ll be Bushrod’s second straight absence with a foot injury. He hasn’t played very well this season, earning PFF’s 61st grade among 78 qualifying guards, but his absence won’t make things better for Kenyan Drake. He’s been splitting time with Williams and they’ve combined for 22.5 touches per game since the Jay Ajayi trade. With Williams (shoulder) out and Senorise Perry (concussion) questionable at best, Drake could take on the vast majority of that workload against the Broncos on Sunday. Denver is allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards to RBs while ranking third in adjusted line yards (per FO). However, Broncos DL Domata Peko and DE Derek Wolfe both left the Week 12 early. Peko suffered an MCL sprain while Wolfe is dealing with a neck injury which can be very tricky. Both players are among the top 34 interior defenders in PFF’s run defense grading out of 121 qualifiers. If neither can play, it would be an upgrade for Drake on the ground. The Broncos have struggled a bit with backs in the passing game; they’ve given up the most receiving touchdowns to the position (0.55/g). The Raiders took advantage of that vulnerability after they lost Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree with Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington combining for an 8/8/79/1 line. Over the past four weeks, Drake and Williams have combined for 6.0 receptions per game.
Other tagged players: Damien Williams, Kenyan Drake, Senorise Perry Colts CB Rashaan Melvin and C Ryan Kelly ruled out for Week 13
Melvin, PFF’s 15th-ranked cover corner, left Week 12 with a hand injury and didn’t return. He’s the best corner on the team by a mile, so this will be a huge blow to their already-weak pass defense. They visit the Jaguars in Week 13, setting up a much better spot for Marqise Lee, who was held to a 1/13/0 line under Patrick Peterson’s shadow. Dede Westbrook ended up leading the squad with ten targets. With Allen Hurns ruled out, Westbrook should remain very involved in their passing game. He and Lee will see the likes of Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore on the outside, PFF’s 86th and 100th (if he qualified) cover corners, respectively. It’s worth noting the Jaguars are expected to return to a run-heavy scheme with Leonard Fournette following their Week 12 loss. The rookie runner should find success against a defense ranking 20th in adjusted line yards (per FO) and giving up the seventh-most PPR points to RBs. If Fournette can carry the offense, it would limit the volumes and upsides of the Jaguars receivers.
Other tagged players: Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook Rishard Matthews will be a game-time decision Week 13
Matthews returned to a limited practice today which was his first since last Thursday when he injured his hamstring. If he’s able to play. he’ll have a nice spot against the Texans. If not, it’ll be a boost for Corey Davis. The rookie only saw four targets without Matthews in Week 12 which was second on the team but disappointing in what appeared to be a great spot against the Colts. The Titans are running the fifth-fewest passing plays per game (31.7) and the ninth-fewest plays overall (61.5/g), which has limited the upside of the receivers all season. If Matthews is out again, Davis should be one of Marcus Mariota’s go-to targets but volume may a concern again as the Texans’ opponents are running the sixth-fewest plays per game (60.8). Even so, they’re giving up a ton of points, the fourth-most in the league (25.9/g), and they’re allowing the sixth-most PPR points to WRs this season. It’s clearly another positive matchup and if the Titans can get the offense clicking a little better – they’re 19th in points scored over the past three weeks (20.3/g) – Davis should be able to produce a good return for his salary. Vegas believes they can, providing them the seventh-highest implied total on the board (25.25 points). Davis will primarily match up with Kevin Johnson, who’s allowing the most fantasy points per route defended among CBs playing in Week 13 (0.41, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Corey Davis Falcons CB Desmond Trufant ruled out for Week 13
Trufant is in the concussion protocol. He would’ve primarily seen Stefon Diggs if he played, so his absence presents an upgrade for the receiver. Second-year CB C.J. Goodwin, who played just 20 snaps prior to Week 12, filled in for Trufant last week and allowed four receptions on five targets. Diggs runs about 50% of his routes on Goodwin’s side. He’s taken a backseat to Adam Thielen in recent weeks, failing to top seven targets over his past six games but he’s been very efficient with his opportunities. In addition to a solid 67% catch rate, he’s ninth in the league in yards per route run (2.08, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Stefon Diggs This Wide Receiver Loves Zone Defenses
Michael Thomas has had a high floor this season, but he has basically turned into a chain-moving receiver. After scoring a bunch of touchdowns in his rookie year, many were expecting him to be a huge redzone threat. While the touchdowns haven’t come in bunches this season, he is still getting peppered with targets, including a healthy dose of looks near the goal line. He has an excellent track record against the Panthers, who play primarily zone defense. While everyone else is ready to jump ship, this is the week to hop on Thomas.
Very Few Workhorse Backs Left
Todd Gurley doesn’t have the best running back matchup this week, but he is game-flow independent. The Rams basically give him every running back carry and then he’s a big part of the passing game as well. Patrick Peterson will likely lock down Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods is going to miss the game, and Cooper Kupp will have to deal with the Honey Badger. With three of their best weapons in tough matchups and/or injured, this could be a spot to give Gurley 30+ touches. Ignore the difficult matchup against the Cardinals and focus on his potential workload.
Chris Hogan ruled out for Week 13
Hogan will miss his fourth straight game, which will help Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Cooks caught six passes in each of the last three outings and he’s scored twice. He’ll mostly see E.J. Gaines, PFF’s 35th-ranked cover corner. While Gronk was quiet in the first two contests without Hogan, he blew up for a two-score performance last week against the Dolphins. He should continue picking up extra looks in scoring position as long as Hogan is down. The Bills have been solid against tight ends though, they’re giving up the third-fewest TDs to the position (0.18/g) and they’re 12th in DVOA.
Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski Allen Hurns and LB Telvin Smith ruled out for Week 13; RT Jeremy Parnell and LG Patrick Omameh questionable
Hurns is still dealing with an ankle injury that’s caused him miss the past two games. Last week, Dede Westbrook played 78% of the snaps and picked up a team-high ten targets.With Hurns out again, Westbrook could potentially slide into the starting role ahead of Keelan Cole. Even if he doesn’t, he should see the field plenty and should pick up a nice market share of the team’s targets against the Colts, whose defense is giving up the eighth-most PPR points to WRs this season. However, the Colts don’t have a Patrick Peterson to shut down Marqise Lee, which definitely helped Westbrook’s volume last game. Also, the Colts are equally bad against the run, ranking 20th in adjusted line yards (per FO) while giving up the seventh-most PPR points to RBs. Per the Florida Times-Union, Tom Coughlin was upset by the team’s Blake Bortles-heavy approach last week. Bortles dropped back on 72% of their plays, threw 33 times, took three sacks, and scrambled on six occasions for a team-high 62 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette received 12 carries and against the fifth-ranked defense in adjusted line yards, returned 25 yards on the ground. With a much weaker defensive front awaiting them this weekend, it seems reasonable to expect Jacksonville to return to their run-focused scheme, limiting the upside of the receivers. On the season, they’ve run more than any other team (50%). Smith remains in the concussion protocol. He’s currently PFF’s top-graded linebacker in run defense and he leads his position in run-stop rate. His absence is an upgrade for Colts RB Frank Gore but the old back is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season and he’s scored three times.
Other tagged players: Jacksonville Jaguars, Dede Westbrook Giants LB Jonathan Casillas ruled out for Week 13, DT Damon Harrison questionable, RT Justin Pugh doubtful
Harrison’s status is important considering he’s PFF’s top-graded interior defender against the run and he’s posted the fifth-best run-stop rate at his position. If he’s unable to suit up, it would be an upgrade for Marshawn Lynch, who played a season-high 75% of the snaps last weekend and returned his best game of the season – 110 total yards and a touchdown on 29 touches. While the Raiders mostly managed his reps all season, they’re in must-win mode down the stretch sitting at 5-6. That could continue to elevate Lynch’s workload going forward. He flashed two-touchdown upside two games ago and he’s fifth in the league in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. While the Giants crumbled over the past four weeks, they allowed the tenth-most PPR points to RBs and the eight-most TDs to the position (0.75/g).
Other tagged players: Marshawn Lynch Panthers DE Charles Johnson suspended for four games
Johnson violated the NFL’s policy on PEDs. He’s a starter for the Panthers but he isn’t having a strong season; he’s PFF’s 109th-ranked edge defender, hasn’t logged a sack all season, and his run-stop rate would be the sixth-lowest at his position if he qualified. The Panthers take on one of the best offensive lines in the game on Sunday. The Saints are first in both pass blocking efficiency and adjusted line yards (per FO).
Ty Montgomery and CB Kevin King ruled out for Week 13
Montgomery (ribs) will miss his third straight game. Aaron Jones has been dealing with a knee injury he suffered in Week 10. If he’s able to suit up this weekend without limitations, he should resume his starting role. While Jamaal Williams had a very nice game against the Steelers with 135 total yards and two TDs, he’s been an inefficient runner, averaging 3.4 yards per carry or less in all three starts this season. Jones has been a little up and down but he’s flashed some serious upside, posting 125 or more rushing yards in two of the four games he’s picked up double-digit carries. It’ll be a backfield to watch heading into Sunday as Jones could potentially be on a snap count if he plays, leaving him in a timeshare with Williams. Tampa Bay ranks 14th in adjusted line yards (per FO) and they’ve given up the 11th-most PPR points to RBs. With King out, Josh Hawkins will likely work in on nickel packages, he’s PFF’s 92nd-ranked cover corner and will mostly see Mike Evans when he’s on the field, setting up a nice matchup for the receiver, who’s averaged 10.1 targets per game over the course of his career when Jameis Winston is under center.
Other tagged players: Green Bay Packers Cowboys CB Orlando Scandrick expected to miss at least one week
Scandrick suffered two transverse process fractures in his back last night. He mans the slot for the Cowboys, so his absence should provide a nice boost for Sterling Shepard in Week 13. We’ll have to see how the receiver does without Eli Manning under center this week.