DFS Alerts
Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Tolbert ruled out for Week 13; LeSean McCoy expected to play
Benjamin is dealing with a torn meniscus and hasn’t practiced all week. Stephon Gilmore could follow Zay Jones, leaving Malcolm Butler with Deonte Thompson and Jonathan Jones defending Jordan Matthews in the slot. After a rough start to the season, the corners have played much better over the past four games; all three are in the top 27 in yards per cover snap during that stretch (per PFF). Jones has a good shot to lead the receivers in targets if Benjamin sits but his inefficiency problems continued last week when he only pulled down three of his ten looks and Gilmore has held receivers to a solid 57% catch rate since returning from injury. Malcolm Butler has limited receivers to an impressive 43% catch rate over the past four weeks while Jones posted 52%. In part due to improved cornerback play, the Patriots have held opponents to 17 points or fewer for seven straight games. The Bills are at home this weekend, which should help Tyrod Taylor and his pass-catchers, but New England’s defense appears to have fixed their early-season “communication issues” as the team put it. The Bills are implied to score 20 points on Sunday. McCoy was a mid-week downgrade to a limited practice Thursday with knee soreness and won’t practice today. Head coach Sean McDermott believes he’ll be ready to go on Sunday though and his touchdown expectation will be a bit higher with Tolbert sidelined. However, over the past four weeks, the Patriots have stuffed RBs for the fourth-fewest PPR points per game.
Other tagged players: Mike Tolbert, LeSean McCoy
Healthy Again?
I don’t have any idea how healthy Jameis Winston really is, but at his current price point, I am willing to take a shot on him. I love Mike Evans this week, and you can scroll to him for another news blurb, but the Winston to Evans connection is very much in play for GPP contests. The Packers do not have a great defense, and Winston should be rested and ready to go. There’s a bit of risk because of the uncertain health, but that’s baked into his very affordable price tag.
Low-Owned Upside
Our current ownership projections have Fournette sitting at less than 10%, and that is music to my ears in tournaments. There is a lot to like here: he’s practicing in full and seems to be healthy for the first time in a while, and the game flow projects to be very positive, with Jacksonville sitting as ten point favorites. The Colts have packed it in for the year, and this feels like a game where Fournette gets 25 carries. If that happens, a big game could very much be in the works. He’s a fantastic tournament option.
Ready for a Breakout Game?
There are a lot of factors working in favor of Jared Cook this week. With Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper both likely out of commission, there are a ton of targets to go elsewhere. Some of those will definitely head Cook’s way. The matchup is also a great one against a Giants team that has struggled against tight ends all year long. A+B = a great fantasy day, in all likelihood. Fire up Cook with confidence in all formats in Week 13.
Cowboys LT Tyron Smith, RT La'el Collins, and LB Anthony Hitchens active Week 13; LB Sean Lee inactive
Having Smith and Collins out there should help the Cowboys defend the league’s sixth-ranked team in adjusted sack rate (per FO). It’s also good news for Alfred Morris. The Redskins are 31st in adjusted line yards and Morris is averaging 5.8 yards per carry this season. It’ll be Lee’s third missed game in a row due to a hamstring injury. Dallas has really struggled to defend the run without Lee on the field but they were able to keep Melvin Gordon in check on Thanksgiving, holding him to 65 yards on 21 carries. In Week 10 when Lee was injured and exited early, the Falcons picked up 134 yards and a score on the ground while the stable of Eagles backs tore the Cowboys up for 215 yards and two scores (6.5 ypc) a week late. Tonight, they’ll face Samaje Perine, who’s crossed 100 rushing yards for two straight weeks. With Chris Thompson sidelined, he was active in the passing game as well; Perine saw four targets and finished with three catches for 30 yards. On the season, Dallas is now 19th in adjusted line yards (per FO). Considering how poorly the Cowboys offense has performed recently, game flow could turn in Perine’s favor. The Redskins are currently 1.5-point road favorites.
Redskins LT Trent Williams, RG Brandon Scherff, and RT Morgan Moses active Week 13
Williams is PFF’s ninth-ranked tackle and he hasn’t been charged with a sack all season. Unfortunately for Kirk Cousins, DeMarcus Lawrence, who’s posted the fourth-best pass rushing productivity rate, attacks from the opposite side of the formation. RT Morgan Moses has been charged with the 16th-most sacks among tackles (4), and one of those was courtesy of Lawrence back in Week 8. Moses also gave up the sixth-most pressures that week (4). While Washington’s line is mostly health, C Chase Roullier (hand), who’s filling in for Spencer Long, won’t be able to play Thursday night. Tony Bergstrom will take Roullier’s place again. His PFF grade would be 34th among 36 centers if he qualified.
Mike Williams isn't expected to play Week 13
Williams has a bone bruise on his knee and it doesn’t look like he’ll be suiting up this weekend. He only had a part-time role, so his absence won’t change much. Travis Benjamin should see more snaps with Williams sidelined but he’s just a boom-or-bust option without much boom given his place on the offense. He’s been held to three or fewer catches in all but one game this season.
Other tagged players: Travis Benjamin JuJu Smith-Schuster practiced Thursday
Smith-Schuster (hamstring) was a full participant, indicating he’s ready to return from a one-game absence Monday night. He’ll likely resume his WR2 role, hurting the fantasy values of Martavis Bryant and Eli Rogers. He’ll have a tough spot against a Bengals team that’s allowed the second-fewest PPR points to WRs this season. However, he’ll mostly see Darqueze Dennard in the slot and our WR/CB matchup tool provides him the 13th-best rating of the week. Smith-Schuster averaged 8.3 targets over his last three games and scored twice. His 1.93 yards per route run rate would be 13th in the league if he qualified.
Josh Gordon officially activated, will start Week 13
Gordon will make his long-awaited return on Sunday against the Chargers. He’s reportedly in great shape and with the lack of options around him, should have a significant role right away – the team already said he won’t have a snap count. Casey Hayward will likely shadow Corey Coleman, leaving Gordon with Trevor Williams most of the game. Williams has allowed fewer fantasy points per route defended than Hayward (0.16 to 0.19) and he’s earned PFF’s 13th-best cover grade. As a unit, the Chargers are seventh in pass DVOA and allowing the fifth-fewest yards to WRs. It’s a tough spot for Gordon’s first game back.
Saints CB Ken Crawley expects to play Week 13; CB Marshon Lattimore and LT Terron Armstead didn't practice Thursday
Both players missed last week’s game against the Rams and Jared Goff threw for 354 yards and two scores. The Saints simply don’t have depth behind them. Fortunately for the Saints, they should at least get Crawley back. Lattimore’s status is more uncertain following his mid-week downgrade to a ‘DNP’ on Thursday. He’s the better CB, ranking eighth in yards per cover snap (0.74, per PFF) while holding passers to the third-lowest rating (47.4), and he often follows WR1s. If Lattimore can’t go, it would be a nice boost for Devin Funchess, who’s coming off his first 100-yard game of the season (108). Although Christian McCaffrey should be heavily involved whether Lattimore plays or not, he could see a little boost if Funchess has to content with the corner. Last time McCaffrey played the Saints, he went off for 101 receiving yards on nine catches. The Saints are giving up the ninth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to RBs.
Other tagged players: Devin Funchess, Christian McCaffrey Will Fuller didn't practice Thursday
Fuller has missed the past two games and he’s yet to practice this week, putting him on the wrong side of questionable for Week 13. DeAndre Hopkins picked up ten targets last week and finished with seven catches for 125 yards against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Struggling quarterback Tom Savage will continue to lean on Hopkins plenty when they take on the Titans this weekend, whose defense is giving up the seventh-most PPR points to WRs. Hopkins could be followed by Adoree’ Jackson, who’s allowed a friendly 0.3 fantasy points per route run along with a 60% catch rate (per PFF). Bruce Ellington will serve as the WR2. He’s picked up at least seven targets in each of the past four games but he’s only averaged 4.0 receptions and 38.8 yards during that stretch while scoring once.
Other tagged players: DeAndre Hopkins, Bruce Ellington Chris Hogan didn't practice Thursday
It looked like Hogan was trending in the right direction this week but he hasn’t been able to participate yet. If he doesn’t return tomorrow he’ll most likely be sidelined for the fourth straight game. Should he sit, it would help Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Cooks has caught six passes in each of the last three outings and he’s scored twice. While Gronk was quiet in the first two contests without Hogan, he blew up for a two-score performance last week against the Dolphins. He should continue picking up extra looks in scoring position as long as Hogan is down.
Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski Senorise Perry returned to practice Thursday; Jarvis Landry limited
Perry was a full go on Thursday, indicating he’s on track to clear the concussion protocol and play the Broncos this weekend. If he’s able to suit up, he’ll serve as Kenyan Drake’s backup. It’s not clear how much Miami will work Perry in but it seems like Drake should have the featured role with Damien Williams out with a dislocated shoulder. Williams and Drake have combined for 22.5 touches per game since the Jay Ajayi trade and Drake could see the vast majority of that work this weekend. Unfortunately, it will come against the Broncos, whose defense is allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards to RBs while ranking third in adjusted line yards heading into Week 12 (per FO). However, Broncos DL Domata Peko and DE Derek Wolfe both left the Week 12 early. Peko suffered an MCL sprain while Wolfe is dealing with a neck injury which can be very tricky. Both players are among the top 34 interior defenders in PFF’s run defense grading out of 121 qualifiers. If neither can play, it would be an upgrade for Drake on the ground. The Broncos have struggled a bit with backs in the passing game; they’ve given up the most receiving touchdowns to the position (0.55/g). The Raiders took advantage of that vulnerability after they lost Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree with Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington combining for an 8/8/79/1 line. Over the past four weeks, Drake and Williams have combined for 6.0 receptions per game. Landry was added to the injury report with a knee injury Thursday, which isn’t a great sign. If he’s able to practice tomorrow, he should be fine for Sunday.
Other tagged players: Jarvis Landry, Kenyan Drake Adrian Peterson expected to play Week 13
Peterson has been sidelined this week with a neck injury but offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin full expects Peterson to suit up on Sunday. He’ll maintain his featured role in their backfield against the Rams. Last time these two teams faced, LA blew the Cardinals out 33-0 and Peterson only touched the ball 12 times. Vegas seems to think it could get out of hand again as the Rams are 7-point road favorites and the Cardinals have the fifth-lowest implied total on the board (18.75). Peterson posted a pair of nice games since joining the team but he’s also returned 1.9 yards per carry or fewer in three of his six appearances with Arizona and he’s averaging 3.5 ypc overall with the team.
Other tagged players: Kerwynn Williams, D.J. Foster Greg Olsen could play without practicing
The tight end hasn’t practiced yet this week after re-aggravating his foot injury in Week 12. Coach Ron Rivera said they just want to go easy on him this week and he wouldn’t have a problem with Olsen suiting up on Sunday without practicing. Although he’ll likely come down to a game-time decision, it seems like Olsen will be able to play against the Saints on Sunday, albeit in a limited role.