DFS Alerts
Receiver Gets Looks At Every Turn on Quarterback Carousel
Demaryius Thomas has had to deal with a rotation at the Broncos quarterback position this season, with Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, and Trevor Siemian all drawing starts, but Thomas still ranks 10th in the league with 96 targets on the year. He has turned those targets into a somewhat disappointing 651 receiving yards on 58 receptions, but things should be looking up against Miami this weekend. Siemian will once again draw the start, and while this may not say much, he has put up the best numbers among Denver quarterbacks this season. The Miami pass defense, meanwhile, ranks 24th in the league in yards per attempt allowed, and 29th in completion percentage allowed. At only $5,300 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel, Thomas could be an overlooked bargain on Sunday.
Wide Receiver Should Be Thursday Night Special This Week
Jamison Crowder has become a major part of the Washington pass offense over the past four games, drawing 42 targets for 27 catches and 412 receiving yards over that span. It’s no coincidence that Crowder’s increase in looks has come as Terrelle Pryor and Jordan Reed have been lost to injury, and he should continue to see a large target share from QB Kirk Cousins. Crowder’s next matchup comes against a Dallas team that just allowed 172 yards to Keenan Allen last week, and at only $6,900 on FanDuel and $6000 on DraftKings, Crowder should be a point-per-dollar bargain on the Thursday night game.
Quarterback Draws Great Matchup in Return From Injury
Jameis Winston has missed three games due to a shoulder injury, but he is getting back just in time to face a Packers pass defense that ranks 31st in completion percentage allowed, 28th in yards per attempt allowed, and 25th in passing yards per game allowed. Prior to his Week 9 injury, Winston had put up at least 21 FD/DK points and 300 yards in four of his previous six games, and this week the Buccaneers are missing their starting RB Doug Martin. The Bucs should be able to put up some points heading into Green Bay this week, and at only $7,300 on FanDuel and $5,600 on DraftKings, Winston could be a sneaky bargain with upside this Sunday.
Terrible Pass Defense Could Allow More Opportunities for this Bargain QB
Blake Bortles has been surprisingly good for his salary recently, hitting at least 14.5 FD/DK points in five of his last six starts, and at least one touchdown (rushing or passing) in each start. Included in that string is a 330-yard passing performance against the Colts, who he gets a rematch against at home this week. The Colts have been among the worst pass defenses in the league this season, ranking last in yards per attempt allowed, 29th in passing yards per game, and 28th in passing DVOA. Bortles has a new wide receiver to throw to in Dede Westbrook, and while Westbrook underwhelmed in his debut he should see more looks as he settles into the offense. Bortles ranks towards the bottom of the salary ranks at $7,400 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings, making him a bargain for tournaments this weekend.
High Volume Receiver Putting Up Huge Yardage Numbers
Keenen Allen has absolutely shredded opposing pass defenses over the past two weeks, putting up 23 catches, 331 receiving yards, and three touchdowns on 27 targets against the Bills and Cowboys. He gets another mediocre pass defense on tap again this week, facing a Browns team that is tied for second-worst in the league with 22 passing touchdowns allowed. Allen’s corresponding increase in price could drive others away this weekend, as he now ranks third on both FanDuel and DraftKings in salary, but ranking fifth in the league with 106 targets and 927 receiving yards, the Chargers wide receiver should be worth the price against Cleveland.
Rishard Matthews isn't practicing Thursday
It’s not a great start to the week for the receiver, he’s now missed both practice sessions. Matthews is dealing with a hamstring issued that kept him sidelined last Sunday and if he can’t get back on the field tomorrow, he’ll likely miss another game. Corey Davis only saw four targets without Matthews in Week 12 which was second on the team but disappointing in what appeared to be a great spot against the Colts. The Titans are running the fifth-fewest passing plays per game (31.7) and the ninth-fewest plays overall (61.5/g), which has limited the upside of the receivers all season. If Matthews is out again, Davis should be one of Marcus Mariota’s go-to targets but volume may a concern again as the Texans’ opponents are running the sixth-fewest plays per game (60.8). Even so, they’re giving up a ton of points, the fourth-most in the league (25.9/g), and they’re allowing the sixth-most PPR points to WRs this season. It’s clearly another positive matchup and if the Titans can get the offense clicking a little better – they’re 19th in points scored over the past three weeks (20.3/g) – Davis should be able to produce a good return for his salary. Vegas believes they can, providing them the seventh-highest implied total on the board (25.25 points). Davis will primarily match up with Kevin Johnson, who’s allowing the most fantasy points per route defended among CBs playing in Week 13 (0.41, per PFF).
Other tagged players: Corey Davis
QB Looks to Continue Hot Play Against Poor Pass Defense
Cleveland can seem like a difficult pass defense, with ranking 13th in fewest passing yards allowed on the season, but underneath that yardage number they rank second-to-last in passing touchdowns allowed (22) and near the bottom of the league in yards per passing attempt allowed (7.4). Philip Rivers, meanwhile, has remained the focal point of the Chargers offense, ranking seventh in the league in passing yards and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns. He’s also coming off a 400+ yard, 3-TD game against Dallas last week. The Chargers have the second-highest implied point total on the week, and at $8,000 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings, Rivers comes at a nice discount to the top quarterbacks on the slate, with similar upside.
Doug Martin and S T.J. Ward aren't practicing Thursday
Martin suffered a concussion Sunday and hasn’t practiced all week. Jacquizz Rodgers ended up leading the backfield with nine touches for 37 yards. If Martin misses any time, Rodgers could move into the starting lineup while Charles Sims handles the passing-down work. Rodgers has returned 3.6 yards per carry this season and he could potentially lose some early-down work to Peyton Barber, which would make it a three-way committee. If Martin plays, he could maintain the featured role but he’s returned just 3.2 yards per carry this season and he’s only scored twice. Green Bay’s defense has been solid up front, they’re currently 11th in adjusted line yards (per FO). On the defensive side of the ball, Ward is also in the concussion protocol. He’s PFF’s 68th-ranked cover safety among 84 qualifiers but he’s 17th in run defense. He and Chris Conte split time at safety and they complement each other well; Conte has earned the 75th run defense grade and the 21st in coverage. If Ward is out, Conte would likely take over a full-time role against the Packers on Sunday.
Other tagged players: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Adrian Peterson isn't practicing Thursday
It’s the second straight absence for Peterson, who’s dealing with a neck injury. Yesterday, head coach Bruce Arians said he has “no clue” what his backfield will look like this weekend. If Peterson sits, it could put Kerwynn Williams in the early-down role while D.J. Foster takes over on passing downs. We should learn more about Peterson and what the Cardinals plan to do if he sits over the next couple of days.
Other tagged players: Kerwynn Williams, D.J. Foster Coby Fleener ruled out for Week 13
Fleener has been a non-factor on the Saints offense this season averaging 2.5 targets per game while playing 31% of the snaps over the past seven games, so his absence shouldn’t change a whole lot. Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui will take over Fleener’s vacated playing time but they’ve only combined for 14 receptions all season. Quarterback Drew Brees will continue to focus on Michael Thomas and his running backs, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara; the trio has combined for 58% of Brees’ targets. Thomas alone has maintained a 27% market share and he’s efficiently hauled in 69% of his looks. While he’s been very consistent all season, he’s only found the end zone three times. Part of the problem is his lack of usage in the red zone, he’s third on the team with just seven looks inside the 20-yard line, behind both Kamara (13) and Ingram (8). He’ll face a Panthers defense giving up the seventh-most receiving touchdowns to WRs (1.0/g), which could help him find the paint.
Other tagged players: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram Ameer Abdullah and RG T.J. Lang aren't practicing Thursday
Abdullah was absent Wednesday with a neck injury and it appears to be a legitimate concern. If he ends up sidelined this weekend, Dwayne Washington would likely take over the early-down role with Zach Zenner potentially mixing in while Theo Riddick works in for passing situations. They’ll have a very tough spot against the Baltimore Ravens, whose defense is allowing the seventh-fewest PPR point to RBs.
Devonta Freeman won't be limited Week 13
He’ll still have a tough matchup with the Vikings, whose defense is permitting the fewest PPR points to backs this season, and he’ll lose snaps and touches to Tevin Coleman. While Freeman’s price has dropped considerably – and he’s now much cheaper than Coleman on DK – he hasn’t picked up more than 15 touches since Week 4 which is a bit concerning. Part of that is because Atlanta hasn’t been using their backs as much in the passing game under Steve Sarkisian’s command. Freeman averaged 3.4 receptions last year and he’s seen that drop to 2.1 this season.
Other tagged players: Tevin Coleman Kelvin Benjamin isn't practicing Thursday
Benjamin is dealing with a torn meniscus and is considered “day-to-day.” It seems doubtful he’ll be able to return this weekend against the Patriots. If he’s unable to go, Stephon Gilmore could follow Zay Jones, leaving Malcolm Butler with Deonte Thompson and Jonathan Jones defending Jordan Matthews in the slot. After a rough start to the season, the corners have played much better over the past four games; all three are in the top 27 in yards per cover snap during that stretch (per PFF). Jones has a good shot to lead the receivers in targets if Benjamin sits but his inefficiency problems continued last week when he only pulled down three of his ten looks and Gilmore has held receivers to a solid 57% catch rate since returning from injury. Malcolm Butler has limited receivers to an impressive 43% catch rate over the past four weeks while Jones posted 52%. In part due to improved cornerback play, the Patriots have held opponents to 17 points or fewer for seven straight games. The Bills are at home this weekend, which should help Tyrod Taylor and his pass-catchers, but New England’s defense appears to have fixed their early-season “communication issues” as the team put it. The Bills are implied to score 20 points on Sunday.
Aaron Jones, LB Clay Matthews, and DT Kenny Clark will practice Thursday; Ty Montgomery won't participate
All three players are in the “trial return” category, per head coach Mike McCarthy. Jones has been dealing with a knee injury he suffered in Week 10. If he’s able to suit up this weekend without limitations, he should resume his starting role. While Jamaal Williams had a very nice game against the Steelers with 135 total yards and two TDs, he’s been an inefficient runner, averaging 3.4 yards per carry or less in all three starts this season. Jones has been a little up and down but he’s flashed some serious upside, posting 125 or more rushing yards in two of the four games he’s picked up double-digit carries. It’ll be a backfield to watch heading into Sunday as Jones could potentially be on a snap count if he plays, leaving him and Williams in a timeshare. Tampa Bay ranks 14th in adjusted line yards (per FO) and they’ve given up the 11th-most PPR points to RBs.
Allen Hurns and LB Telvin Smith won't practice Thursday
It’s the second straight absence for both players. Hurns is still dealing with an ankle injury that’s caused him miss the past two games. Last week, Dede Westbrook played 78% of the snaps and picked up a team-high ten targets. If Hurns is out again, Westbrook could potentially slide into the starting role ahead of Keelan Cole. Even if he doesn’t, he should see the field plenty and should pick up a nice market share of the team’s targets against the Colts, whose defense is giving up the eighth-most PPR points to WRs this season. However, the Colts don’t have a Patrick Peterson to shut down Marqise Lee, which definitely helped Westbrook’s volume last game. Also, the Colts are equally bad against the run, ranking 20th in adjusted line yards (per FO) while giving up the seventh-most PPR points to RBs. Per the Florida Times-Union, Tom Coughlin was upset by the team’s Blake Bortles-heavy approach last week. Bortles dropped back on 72% of their plays, threw 33 times, took three sacks, and scrambled on six occasions for a team-high 62 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette received 12 carries and against the fifth-ranked defense in adjusted line yards, returned 25 yards on the ground. With a much weaker defensive front awaiting them this weekend, it seems reasonable to expect Jacksonville to return to their run-focused scheme, limiting the upside of the receivers. On the season, they’ve run more than any other team (50%). Smith has entered the concussion protocol. He’s currently PFF’s top-graded linebacker in run defense and he leads his position in run-stop rate. If he’s out, it’s an upgrade for Colts RB Frank Gore but the old back is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season and he’s scored three times.