DFS Alerts
Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Tolbert won't practice Wednesday
Benjamin is dealing with a torn meniscus and is considered “day-to-day.” It seems like it’ll be challenging for him to return this weekend against the Patriots. If he’s unable to go, Stephon Gilmore could follow Zay Jones, leaving Malcolm Butler with Deonte Thompson and Jonathan Jones defending Jordan Matthews in the slot. After a rough start to the season, the corners have played much better over the past four games; all three are in the top 27 in yards per cover snap (per PFF). Jones figures to lead the receiver group in targets if Benjamin sits but his inefficiency problems continued last week when he only pulled down three of his ten looks and Gilmore has held receivers to a solid 57% catch rate since returning from injury. Malcolm Butler has limited receivers to an impressive 43% catch rate over the past four weeks while Jones posted a 52% rate. In part due to improved cornerback play, the Patriots have held opponents to 17 points or fewer for seven straight games. The Bills are at home this weekend, which should help Tyrod Taylor and his pass-catchers, but New England’s defense appears to have fixed their early-season “communication issues” as the team put it. The Bills are implied to score 20 points on Sunday.
Other tagged players: Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews, Deonte Thompson
Devonta Freeman cleared the concussion protocol
Freeman has missed the past two games due to the head injury. With the back cleared out of the protocol, he’s expected to suit up this weekend and supplant Tevin Coleman as the starter. It’s possible he doesn’t take on a normal workload in his first game back. In either case, he’ll be in a timeshare with Coleman, limiting the upside of both RBs. They have a very tough matchup with the Vikings, whose defense is permitting the fewest PPR points to backs this season. While Freeman’s price has dropped considerably – and he’s now notably cheaper than Coleman on DK – he hasn’t picked up more than 15 touches since Week 4 and as mentioned, could be limited this weekend.
Other tagged players: Tevin Coleman Upside for a Value Price
The talent has never been in question, and the opportunity is starting to come around. Westbrook played on 70% of the snaps last week and saw a healthy 10 targets against the Cardinals. The numbers will eventually be there, and this could be the spot to buy low. Westbrook’s price tag remains dirt cheap, and he has the potential to be the best value play on the board in Week 13.
Time for a Breakout?
Daily fantasy players are giving up on Mike Evans, and there is sound reasoning behind it. He hasn’t scored in a month. He hasn’t topped 100 receiving yards all year. Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled. Everything says to steer clear, but Evans’ talent is going to take over one of these weeks. The Packers allowed a massive game to Antonio Brown and the Steelers’ pass catchers last week, and Evans could be in line for his best game of the season. He’s definitely not a cash game play, but I love a low-owned and relatively affordable Evans in GPP formats this week. With Jameis Winston likely returning, the upside is even greater.
Positive Game Flow Enhances Outlook
We all know the drill by now with Jordan Howard: play him in favorable matchups and sit him in games where the Bears will undoubtedly be trailing. This week profiles as a good chance at the former, with the Bears checking in as home favorites over a weak San Francisco squad. This is a “get right” spot for Howard, and I expect Chicago to feed him 20+ times if they can get a lead in this game. Tarik Cohen was awful last week, and the touches won’t be in jeopardy if this game is competitive.
On the Rebound
Derek Carr is coming off an encouraging performance in last week’s win over the Broncos, and the matchup gets much better this week, as he gets to face off against a 2-9 Giants squad that is packing it in for the season. The Giants lack talent in the secondary and will be without top corner Janoris Jenkins. Another intriguing part about Carr is that you can likely pair him with a cheap pass catcher in GPP formats, with Amari Cooper unlikely to play and Michael Crabtree potentially suspended. Jared Cook is a sensible pairing, given how badly the Giants have struggled against tight ends this year.
Jimmy Garoppolo will start for 49ers Week 13
With C.J. Beathard hobbled up by a knee injury, coach Kyle Shanahan has announced Garoppol will make his first start for San Francisco against the Bears this Sunday. Garoppolo threw a quick touchdown pass in relief last weekend but only ended up with two attempts. In a limited sample – 65 pass attempts across 18 appearances – Garoppolo has completed 67.7% of his NFL passes and returned 7.4 yards per attempt with six scores and zero interceptions. The Bears have generated the third-fewest interceptions this season (4) while giving up the seventh-highest completion percentage (65.8%) and 15th-most yards per attempt (7.2). Last weekend, Carson Wentz tore Chicago’s pass defense up with three passing touchdowns in the first half.
Other tagged players: C.J. Beathard Tre McBride waived by Bears
McBride logged a healthy number of snaps for the Bears over the past seven games but he only ended up with eight catches during that stretch. His release is a good sign for Josh Bellamy, who was sidelined last week with a concussion. If he’s able to play, he’ll serve as Chicago’s WR3 in a nice matchup. He saw seven targets in Week 11 and hauled in two of them for 57 yards and a score. Despite the spot, it’s still difficult to trust any of the Bears pass-catchers. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky has only completed 52.8% of his passes for 6.38 yards per attempt and he’s only thrown four touchdown passes. He’ll try to pick things up on Sunday against a 49ers defense allowing the most fantasy points to QBs this year.
Other tagged players: Josh Bellamy, Mitchell Trubisky Geno Smith will start for Giants Week 13
The Giants are sending Eli Manning to the bench in favor of Smith. They take on the Raiders and the league’s worst-ranked pass defense in DVOA this weekend, setting up one of the better spots Smith could ask for in his first start as a Giant. Oakland had a similar situation on their hands last week with Paxton Lynch making his 2017 debut and they handled him pretty well, limiting him to 41 scoreless yards. Smith hasn’t logged significant playing time since 2014 and his career numbers aren’t impressive: 57.7% completion rate, 6.87 yards per attempt, 28 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions. On top of that, the Giants are decimated at receiver. It’s probably best to avoid Smith in fantasy.
Redskins LT Trent Williams practiced Tuesday; C Chase Roullier didn't participate
Williams wasn’t able to go yesterday but his return today indicates he’s on track to play the Cowboys Thursday night. He’s PFF’s ninth-ranked tackle and he hasn’t been charged with a sack all season. Unfortunately for Kirk Cousins, DeMarcus Lawrence, who’s posted the fourth-best pass rushing productivity rate, attacks from the opposite side of the formation. RT Morgan Moses has been charged with the 16th-most sacks among tackles (4), and one of those was courtesy of Lawrence back in Week 8. Moses also gave up the sixth-most pressures that week (4). Roullier is their backup center that will fill in for Spencer Long when he’s healthy; he underwent hand surgery just last week though and appears to be on the doubtful side of things. Tony Bergstrom would take Roullier’s place again if he can’t suit up; his PFF grade would be 34th among 36 centers if he qualified.
Breshad Perriman, CB Jimmy Smith, LB C.J. Mosley, and LB Terrell Suggs active; Terrance West and Michael Campanaro inactive
Perriman was a healthy scratch last week and hasn’t been a factor this season; he’s caught seven passes all year. Patrick Peterson’s shadow didn’t stop Tom Savage from targeting DeAndre Hopkins last week, the receiver finished with a team-high nine looks and turned them into a 4/76/1 line. It’s unlikely Jimmy Smith, the only corner allowing fewer fantasy points per route defended than Patrick Peterson (0.11, per PFF), will discourage Savage this week. Fortunately for Hopkins, Smith doesn’t shadow, so the receiver will get some run against Brandon Carr, who’s allowing 0.25 fantasy points per route and ranks 47th in yards per cover snap (1.1). With Will Fuller out, Bruce Ellington will continue to serve as the second receiver. He tallied seven looks against the Cardinals and hauled in six of them for 63 yards. Overall, it’s going to be hard to trust the receivers in this spot with Tom Savage under center. As a unit, the Ravens pass defense is much stronger than the Cardinals. They’re second in pass DVOA and allowing the second-lowest passer rating (66.9), third-fewest yards per attempt (6.4), and the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs and WRs alike. The Ravens are weakest defending tight ends; they’re 31st in DVOA and permitting the 15th-most PPR points to the position. C.J. Fiedorowicz hasn’t gotten very involved in the offense since returning to the team, pulling down two catches in both games while seeing 3.5 targets on average. He could get more action tonight.
Other tagged players: Baltimore Ravens Giants RG D.J. Fluker placed on IR
With RT Justin Pugh questionable for Week 13, the Giants will be thin on the right side of their line this weekend. As a unit, the Giants are 21st in pass blocking efficiency and they’ve been charged with the second-most sacks (22). They’ll have a terrific matchup against the Raiders, whose defense ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate (per FO). Even with a banged-up line, Eli Manning could find time in the pocket. The Raiders are 31st in WR1 DVOA and 30th in TE DVOA, setting up nice spots for Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram.
Martellus Bennett placed on IR
Bennett is dealing with shoulder and hamstring injuries. Considering surgery was on the table prior to his departure from Green Bay, this isn’t a huge surprise. He ended up playing two games with the Patriots this season, his move to the IR won’t change much in New England.
Browns want to play Josh Gordon "as much as possible"
Gordon will make his long-awaited return on Sunday against the Chargers. He’s reportedly in great shape and with the lack of options around him, should see significant playing time. Casey Hayward will likely shadow Corey Coleman, leaving Gordon with Trevor Williams most of the game. Williams has allowed fewer fantasy points per route defended than Hayward (0.16 to 0.19) and he’s earned PFF’s 13th-best cover grade. As a unit, the Chargers are seventh in pass DVOA and allowing the fifth-fewest yards to WRs. It’s a tough spot for Gordon’s first game back.
Jordan Reed isn't expected to play Week 13
Reed continues to miss practice as he rehabs a hamstring injury. ESPN’s John Keim reports Reed is unlikely to play the Cowboys Thursday night and there isn’t a timetable set for the tight end’s return. Vernon Davis was a gigantic disappointment on Thanksgiving when he failed to log a single catch but he played 96% of the snaps and will continue to be the TE1 in Reed’s absence. The Cowboys are allowing the 11th-most PPR points to TEs and rank 23rd in DVOA.
Other tagged players: Vernon Davis