DFS Alerts
Colts CB Rashaan Melvin and C Ryan Kelly aren't expected to play Week 13
Melvin, PFF’s 15th-ranked cover corner, left Week 12 with a hand injury and didn’t return. He’s the best corner on the team by a mile, so if he misses any time, it’ll be a huge blow to their already-weak pass defense. They visit the Jaguars in Week 13, which sets up a much better spot for Marqise Lee, who was held to a 1/13/0 line under Patrick Peterson’s shadow. Dede Westbrook ended up leading the squad with ten targets. Even if Allen Hurns returns, Westbrook could remain very involved in the passing game.
Saints CBs Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley returned to practice Wednesday; LT Terron Armstead, Coby Fleener, and S Marcus Williams didn't participate
It’s a good start to the week for Lattimore and Crawley, both of whom missed last week’s game against the Rams. Without them, Jared Goff threw for 354 yards and two scores. The Saints simply don’t have depth behind them, so if they end up missing more time, it would mean good things for Cam Newton and Devin Funchess this weekend. If Lattimore is able to suit up, he’ll likely follow Funchess. He’s eighth in yards per cover snap (0.74, per PFF) while holding passers to the third-lowest rating (47.4).
Other tagged players: Devin Funchess Cowboys LB Sean Lee ruled out for Week 13; LB Anthony Hitchens, RT La'el Collins and LT Tyron Smith questionable
It’ll be Lee’s third missed game in a row due to a hamstring injury. Dallas has really struggled to defend the run without Lee on the field but they were able to keep Melvin Gordon in check on Thanksgiving, holding him to 65 yards on 21 carries. In Week 10 when Lee was injured and exited early, the Falcons picked up 134 yards and a score on the ground while the stable of Eagles backs tore the Cowboys up for 215 yards and two scores (6.5 ypc) in Week 11. This week, they’ll face Samaje Perine, who’s crossed 100 rushing yards for two straight weeks. With Chris Thompson sidelined, he was active in the passing game as well; Perine saw four targets and finished with three catches for 30 yards. On the season, Dallas is now 19th in adjusted line yards (per FO). Considering how poorly the Cowboys offense has performed recently, game flow could turn in Perine’s favor. The Redskins are currently 1-point road favorites.
Other tagged players: Samaje Perine Senorise Perry didn't practice Wednesday; Dolphins promoted RB De'Veon Smith from practice squad
With Damien Williams dealing with a dislocated shoulder and not expected to play Sunday and Senorise Perry in the concussion protocol, the Dolphins needed to promote Smith to the active roster. If Perry can’t go, Smith will serve as Kenyan Drake’s backup. Williams and Drake have combined for 22.5 touches per game since the Jay Ajayi trade. THis weekend, Drake could pick up almost all of Williams’ vacated snaps and touches. Unfortunately, it will come against the Broncos, whose defense is allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards to RBs while ranking third in adjusted line yards heading into Week 12 (per FO). However, Broncos DL Domata Peko and DE Derek Wolfe both left the Week 12 early. Peko suffered an MCL sprain while Wolfe is dealing with a neck injury which can be very tricky. Both players are among the top 34 interior defenders in PFF’s run defense grading out of 121 qualifiers. If neither can play, it would be an upgrade for Drake on the ground. The Broncos have struggled a bit with backs in the passing game; they’ve given up the most receiving touchdowns to the position (0.55/g). The Raiders took advantage of that vulnerability after they lost Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree with Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, and DeAndre Washington combining for an 8/8/79/1 line. Over the past four weeks, Drake and Williams have combined for 6.0 receptions per game.
Other tagged players: Kenyan Drake, Damien Williams, Senorise Perry Jordan Reed and C Chase Roullier ruled out for Week 13; LT Trent Williams questionable
No surprises here as Reed hasn’t practice all week and Williams was limited following Monday’s absence. Vernon Davis will be an intriguing DFS option after he burned fantasy players last week in a perfect spot. While his zero-catch game is certainly concerning, he averaged 8.7 targets in the three games prior, and he’s been very effective with his opportunities. Davis has delivered 10.8 yards per target this season, besting the likes of Rob Gronkowski (9.6) and Travis Kelce (8.9). The Cowboys are 23rd in TE DVOA and over the past four weeks, they’ve given up the 3rd-most PPR points to the position. Although he hasn’t scored much, Davis is just three shy of the team lead in red zone targets (7) and Dallas has given up three TDs to TEs over the past four games. It’s an appealing bounce back spot and Davis’ ownership should be low. Williams is PFF’s ninth-ranked tackle and he hasn’t been charged with a sack all season. Unfortunately for Kirk Cousins, DeMarcus Lawrence, who’s posted the fourth-best pass rushing productivity rate, attacks from the opposite side of the formation. RT Morgan Moses has been charged with the 16th-most sacks among tackles (4), and one of those was courtesy of Lawrence back in Week 8. Moses also gave up the sixth-most pressures that week (4). Roullier is their backup center that will fill in for Spencer Long when he’s healthy; he underwent hand surgery just last week though won’t be able to play Thursday night. Tony Bergstrom will take Roullier’s place again. His PFF grade would be 34th among 36 centers if he qualified.
Other tagged players: Vernon Davis, Washington Commanders Safe to Say this TE is the Top Option of the Slate
Gronk from Buffalo. Gronk smash Buffalo. Here are his stat lines from his six career games in Buffalo: 5/109/1, 7/113/1, 7/94/0, 5/104/1, 7/109/2, and 4/54/2. His worst game against the Bills in Buffalo went for 16.4 fantasy points. We know that the Patriots hold grudges and we know that they don’t mind giving a few extra looks to players that have added motivation in certain spots. Gronkowski is coming off of his best game of the season and he should be able to add another impressive outing to his resume this week. The Bills played well against the Chiefs last week, but have been shredded by the run and the pass over their last few games.
No other WR has this High of a Floor and Ceiling Combination
DeAndre Hopkins has at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in every single game this season. He has scored at least 14 fantasy points (on full PPR sites) in every game but one. The crazy part is that his production hasn’t been hurt even with Tom Savage throwing him the ball. He draws a generous matchup this week against a Titans’ defense that is ranked 24th against the pass and 16th against WR1s. He should see double-digit targets in a game that they will likely be trailing and there’s no reason to think that he slows down in this one. Savage is not a great NFL quarterback, but we shouldn’t let that take us off of a great play in Hopkins.
Workhorse RB at a Cheap Price Point
As long as Ty Montgomery is ruled out (or even if he is going to be limited), I will be loading up on Jamaal Williams, who is coming off of a terrific game against the Steelers. We know Pittsburgh has been tough on opposing running backs, yet Williams racked up 135 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns. This week he gets to face a Buccaneers’ defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. The Packers like what they saw out of Brett Hundley last week, but they still want to be a run-first team if they have that option. Every once in a while, I don’t mind fading the cheap chalky running back, but this is not one of those times.
Upside at QB at a Discounted Price
A lot of people will try to force Tom Brady into their lineups this week. While I have him pegged as one of my two cash game options at quarterback, I prefer Cam Newton dollar for dollar. The Saints’ defense has been stout this season, but are starting to show some leaks over their last two games, allowing a combined 57 points. Marshon Lattimore (Saints’ top CB) missed last week and is very questionable to play against the Panthers. Additionally, Newton has more rushing upside than any quarterback on the board. Over his last six games, he is averaging 62 yards on the ground. This is a game where Carolina should be playing from behind and a potential blowup spot for Newton.
Ty Montgomery, LB Clay Matthews, and DT Kenny Clark aren't practicing Wednesday
Montgomery is trying to make his return from a lingering ribs injury. It’s a bad start to the week as he’ll be working with the rehab group along with Matthews and Clark. If Montgomery is unable to return this weekend, Jamaal Williams will retain the workhorse role for the Packers. He exploded for 135 total yards and two scores against the Steelers last week but he only averaged 3.1 yards per carry and he’s returned 3.2 on the season. His involvement in the passing game is promising though, he’s caught four passes in each of the past two games. The Buccaneers present a neutral matchup for Williams; they’re 14th in adjusted line yards (per FO) and allowing the 15th-most receiving yards to RBs.
Other tagged players: Jamaal Williams Chris Hogan present at practice Wednesday
Hogan was at practice with a helmet and no pads Wednesday, indicating he’ll be limited in today’s session. The Patriots are notorious for messing around with injury reports, so it’s possible Hogan ends up listed with a ‘DNP’ this afternoon. Either way, his presence is a good sign for this weekend. Hogan has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury. If he’s able to suit up, it would likely take away targets from Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Despite the absence, Hogan remains second on the team in red zone targets (11) and he’s tied with Gronk for a team-high seven looks inside the ten-yard line.
Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski Jay Cutler will start Week 13
Cutler has cleared the concussion protocol and will resume his starting role against the Broncos this weekend. After a horrific start the season, Cutler began playing much better prior to his injury. In his last four full games, he’s averaged 2.25 touchdown passes, 6.6 yards per attempt (5.7 in his other five appearances), and 19.9 fantasy points. Receiver Jarvis Landry caught a touchdown in all four of those contests while averaging 10.8 targets. However, Landry will have a very tough matchup in the slot with Chris Harris this week, who’s allowed the third-fewest yards per cover snap when lined up inside (0.71, per PFF) and has posted the second-best cover snaps per reception rate (19.3). With Aqib Talib out, Denver will be thin on the outside. Bradley Roby is 62nd in yards per cover snap and Denver will use rookie Brendan Langley to replace Talib – he gave up two receptions for 63 yards and a score when he filled in last weekend. In seven games with Cutler at QB, DeVante Parker has averaged 7.7 targets and only scored one TD while Kenny Stills picked up 5.9 looks across nine games together and caught two TD passes from Cutler. Although the Cutler-Parker connection hasn’t really come to fruition this season, he appears to be the best be among the Dolphins WRs this weekend.
Jameis Winston will start Week 13
Per beat writer Rick Stroud, Winston will practice today and barring a setback, will start against the Packers this weekend. Winston is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt this season and he’s cracked 300 yards in four of his six full games while tossing multiple touchdowns in three of those outings. He has a terrific matchup with the Packers this weekend, whose defense is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs. His return should help Mike Evans, who’s averaged 10 targets per game over the course of his career when Winston is under center. The Bucs are implied to score 23 points.
Other tagged players: Ryan Fitzpatrick Giants CB Janoris Jenkins placed on IR
Jenkins will undergo ankle surgery today, ending his season. Jenkins was the best corner on the team, so his absence will certainly be a downgrade for this pass defense the rest of the way. They’ll visit the Raiders this weekend as eight-point underdogs with Oakland implied to score 25 points. Quarterback Derek Carr will likely be without his top two receivers, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, setting up nice spots for Cordarrelle Patterson and Johnny Holton on the outside. Of course, the Giants are now infamous for their inability to guard tight ends. Jared Cook flopped last week against the Broncos but he should see a nice volume of targets in one of the best matchups a tight end could ask for. Seth Roberts will be the de facto number one receiver but he’ll have the tougher spot against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who’s surrendering the seventh-fewest yards per cover snap when lined up inside (0.84, per PFF). Despite both Crabtree and Cooper leaving Week 12 early, Roberts only saw three targets in a tough matchup with Chris Harris.
Other tagged players: Cordarrelle Patterson, Johnny Holton, Seth Roberts, Jared Cook Allen Hurns and LB Telvin Smith won't practice Wednesday
Hurns is still dealing with an ankle injury that’s caused him miss the past two games. Last week, Dede Westbrook played 78% of the snaps and picked up a team-high ten targets. If Hurns is out again, Westbrook could potentially slide into the starting role ahead of Keelan Cole. Even if he doesn’t, he should see the field plenty and should pick up a nice market share of the team’s targets against the Colts, whose defense is giving up the eighth-most PPR points to WRs this season. However, the Colts don’t have a Patrick Peterson to shut down Marqise Lee, which definitely helped Westbrook’s volume last game. Also, the Colts are equally bad against the run, ranking 20th in adjusted line yards (per FO) while giving up the seventh-most PPR points to RBs. Per the Florida Times-Union, Tom Coughlin was upset by the team’s Blake Bortles-heavy approach last week. Bortles dropped back on 72% of their plays, threw 33 times, took three sacks, and scrambled on six occasions for a team-high 62 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette received 12 carries and against the fifth-ranked defense in adjusted line yards, returned 25 yards on the ground. With a much weaker defensive front awaiting them this weekend, it seems safe to expect Jacksonville to return to their run-focused scheme, limiting the upside of the receivers. On the season, they’ve run more than any other team (50%). Smith has entered the concussion protocol. He’s currently PFF’s top-graded linebacker in run defense and he leads his position in run-stop rate. If he’s out, it’s an upgrade for Colts RB Frank Gore but the old back is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season and he’s scored three times.
Other tagged players: Jacksonville Jaguars