DFS Alerts
Volume Keeps Going Up, But My Price Doesn’t
I’ve been saying it for weeks now, but Hyde is way too underpriced for his involvement in the offense. So far on the season, Hyde ranks second in the league in RB targets with 57 and is second in the league in rushes inside the five with 11. He gets a matchup against a terrible Giants team that is entirely anemic on offense and ranks 26th in run DVOA on defense. The 49ers are already hurting on the offensive end (outside of Hyde) with Garcon out for season and Kittle already ruled out this week, so they are going to have to rely on Hyde more now than ever. He is going to be heavily involved in the offense no matter how the game script plays out (running the ball if they are ahead and receiving if they are behind) and is one of the safer RBs in the $6K range on DraftKings. Hyde is both a great cash and GPP play this week and is a near lock for at least 15 DK points.
Enhanced Upside This Week
There is value to be had in the Tampa Bay receiving corps this week. With Mike Evans suspended, both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries get massive boosts. I love pairing either one of these guys with Ryan Fitzpatrick in GPPs this week, as they have upside and give you the ability to spend up at other positions. Let’s go Bucs!
Your Top Wide Receiver in Week 10
Brown is coming off a down game heading into the bye week, but that wasn’t a huge surprise against a good cornerback in Darius Slay. The Steelers have had plenty of time to prepare for a bad Colts team, and this is a spot where Brown could certainly go off. The Colts lack talent in the secondary, top defensive back Vontae Davis is hurt again, and Indianapolis is allowing 280 passing yards per game, which is better than only the Patriots. There is value to be had at other positions, which should allow you to invest in Brown with confidence.
Injury Alert!
To put it simply, DeMarco Murray is hurt. Murray saw a season low in snaps last week, and I can’t believe the Titans haven’t held him out of a game yet. Keep an eye on his status as we get closer to Sunday, as this could finally be the game where we see Derrick Henry get to be a feature back. When that happens, whether it is this week, next week, or two weeks from now, I’ll be loading up. His time to shine is coming. This isn’t a top notch matchup by any means, but his combination of price and upside is too much to ignore if Murray is sidelined or limited.
Are You on Team Punt QB?
If you are on the punt quarterback train, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a really interesting option this week. The fact that Mike Evans has been suspended is a bit of a drag, but the potential is still there. This is, of course, a revenge game for Fitzpatrick, and the Jets have allowed an NFL worst 19 touchdown passes this season. He is bargain priced on every site, and you can certainly fit some studs in around him. Give him a look as a GPP option, and you can pair him with affordable options like DeSean Jackson or Adam Humphries.
Thomas Rawls will start Week 10; Eddie Lacy isn't expected to play
Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said Rawls will be their “guy” against the Cardinals Thursday night with Eddie Lacy sidelined. Rawls took over the early-down role last weekend after Lacy got hurt and posted a season-high 39 yards on 4.3 yards per carry while adding two receptions for 31 yards. Seattle will get C.J. Prosise back after essentially missing five straight games. He’s expected to be the primary passing-down back, although he could lose a some of those snaps to J.D. McKissic. The group has a tough matchup this week; Arizona ranks seventh in yards per carry (3.7) and they’re holding RBs to the 11th-fewest PPR points this season. On Sunday, they limited Carlos Hyde to 41 rushing yards on 12 carries but allowed him to haul in nine catches for 84. With Prosise back, Rawls won’t receive many opportunities to exploit any weaknesses in coverage.
Packers S Morgan Burnett ruled out for Week 10
Burnett injured his groin last night against the Lions. It’s not clear when he’s expected to return but he’s already been ruled out of Green Bay’s Week 10 matchup with the Bears. Although he’s played all over the field this season, Burnett mostly played linebacker last game. His absence could make things easier for Chicago’s ground game but the Bears are 24th in adjusted line yards while the Packers defense is eighth (per FO). Jordan Howard has picked up at least 19 touches in six straight games and he’s averaged 21.7 carries per game. Although Howard has been on a scoreless drought for the past four outings, he may be in a good spot to find the paint as the Packers are allowing the seventh-most rushing touchdowns per game (0.8) and the back has picked up the tenth-most carries inside the ten-yard line (9). Plus, with tight end Zach Miller out, there are even fewer competitors for touches in scoring position.
Other tagged players: Jordan Howard Mike Evans' one-game suspension upheld
Evans has been banned for one game for his involvement in a fight with Saint CB Marshon Lattimore on Sunday. That will leave DeSean Jackson as the Bucs number one receiver when they take on the Jets this weekend. CB Morris Claiborne missed last week with a foot injury but he has a shot to return this Sunday. If he does, he’ll likely shadow Jackson. Despite chasing most opposing WR1s this season, Claiborne has held receivers to a 55% catch rate, 0.89 yards per cover snap (22nd, per PFF), and he hasn’t been charged with a touchdown. Jackson’s outlook would improve if Claiborne remains sidelined. With Evans down, TEs Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard could see more looks along with slot receiver Adam Humphries. Rookie Chris Godwin could step into the starting role and would make for an interesting value play if Claiborne follows Jackson around. Ryan Fitzpatrick was an interesting GPP option with his affordable $4.9k salary on DraftKings but Evans’ absence is a big downgrade for the backup quarterback. Still, the Jets are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs this season and they’ve given up the most passing touchdowns (19).
Other tagged players: Ryan Fitzpatrick C.J. Fiedorowicz expected to play Week 10
Fiedorowicz was activated from the IR Tuesday, as expected, enabling him to suit up this weekend against the Rams. He’s reportedly fully recovered from his concussion and experiencing no symptoms anymore. Considering Ryan Griffin is in the concussion protocol, Fiedorowicz could immediately step into a sizable snap count. He has a difficult spot right off the bat though. In addition to having Tom Savage under center, he’ll have to battle a Rams defense that ranked fourth in TE DVOA heading into Week 9. They successfully shut down Evan Engram for most of the game Sunday, limiting him to just four catches on ten targets, although the rookie nabbed a garbage time score to save his fantasy day. Through nine weeks, the Rams are allowing the tenth-fewest PPR points per game to TEs.
Other tagged players: Ryan Griffin Chris Hogan isn't practicing Tuesday
The receiver injured his shoulder late in Week 8’s game and is looking doubtful for this weekend’s matchup with the Broncos. If he can’t go it would open up snaps and looks for Danny Amendola and should provide more targets for Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has hit double-digit targets in three games this season and he’s found the end zone five times. It’s already a solid spot for him with the Broncos allowing the third-most PPR points to TEs, so the added volume would be very welcome. Gronkowski is currently second among tight ends with 2.11 yards per route run (per PFF), a number that’s better than all but seven wide receivers.
Other tagged players: Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks Mike Tomlin: Martavis Bryant will play Week 10
Bryant is running with the first team in practice and coach Mike Tomlin said he’s done a nice job. It appears Bryant has mended fences with the coaching staff as Tomlin said he’ll put the receiver on the field this weekend. After JuJu Smith-Schuster’s breakout performance last game, Bryant may have to settle for the WR3 role in this offense. They’ll visit the Colts this weekend as 10.0-point favorites. Indy has allowed the seventh-most PPR points to WRs this season, setting up a great spot for the Steelers passing game. Antonio Brown will remain the focal point and he should avoid CB Rashaan Melvin most of the game as he runs the majority of his routes on the opposite side. Melvin is the only capable corner Indianapolis has on the roster – while he’s PFF’s 13th cover corner, the rest of the group is 74th or worse. Brown will likely see Vontae Davis the most if the corner returns to the team following a one-game absence for personal reasons. Davis has posted a 59% catch rate, 1.29 yards per cover snap – which would be the 18th-most if he had enough snaps to qualify – and a 98.7 passer rating. Bryant will be stuck battling Melvin, who’s posted a 53% catch rate, 0.97 yards per cover snap (32nd), and a 65.9 passer rating (11th).
Other tagged players: Antonio Brown Teddy Bridgewater activated, Case Keenum expected to remain starter Week 10
The Vikings are reportedly considering sending Sam Bradford (knee) to the IR. As of now, they plan on having Bridgewater dressed as Keenum’s backup when they take on the Redskins this weekend. Washington has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to QBs but with Josh Norman back in the fold, they have three corners in the top 27 of PFF’s coverage grades, all of whom have limited receivers to 0.84 yards per cover snap or better. That sets up a tough matchup for Keenum and the Vikings passing attack. They’re worse against the run, ranking 27th in adjusted line yards. Since Dalvin Cook’s injury, Jerick McKinnon has picked up between 17 and 22 touches in each game but he’s been out-carried by Latavius Murray in each of the past two – Murray garnered 18 and 19 carries in those contests. Murray is expected to start and handle most of the early-down work while McKinnon takes on the passing-down role, but he’ll be on a short leash like he was in London in Week 8. He only managed 39 yards on those 19 attempts and McKinnon ended up out-snapping him 54 to 31. Outside of one solid game for Murray, McKinnon has looked like the better back and his added value in the passing game makes him the more appealing fantasy asset.
Packers RT Bryan Bulaga suffered torn ACL Monday
The injury woes continue to plague Green Bay. Bulaga tore his ACL Monday, ending his season. Although limited this season for health reasons, Bulaga earned PFF’s 28th-best pass-blocking grade this year. Kyle Murphy will likely step into the Bulaga’s role which is a major downgrade to their pass protection considering Murphy is 66th out of 75 qualifiers and he’s been charged with the tenth-most sacks at his position (10) despite making just three appearances. They face the Bears on Sunday, whose defensive line ranks third in adjusted sack rate (per FO).
Giants CB Janoris Jenkins reinstated from suspension
Jenkins was suspended Week 9 for violating team rules. He’ll return this weekend to take on the 49ers and may follow Marquise Goodwin on the outside. Even if he doesn’t, Goodwin runs the majority of his routes to Jenkins’ preferred side. The CB has held opposing QBs to the 16th-lowest passer rating this season (per PFF), setting up a tough spot for Goodwin to connect with struggling QB C.J. Beathard. After Trent Taylor went down with a fractured rib in Week 9, Aldrick Robinson slipped into the slot often – 55% of his routes – and if he follows a similar pattern, that would set him up with Domique Rodgers-Cromartie quite a bit. DRC has allowed a catch on 10-of-12 targets when lined up inside for 119 yards and a touchdown while his yards per cover snap (1.06) and cover snaps per reception (11.2) are towards the middle of the pack. Kendrick Bourne picked up more snaps (40 total) in place of Taylor, running most of his routes where Eli Apple will likely be on Sunday. Apple has allowed a league-high six touchdowns this season and a 116 passer rating. On top of losing Pierre Garcon and Taylor, the 49ers lost George Kittle for at least a week, leaving San Francisco with Garrett Celek as their lead tight end in a terrific matchup for the position. The Giants are allowing the most PPR points to TEs and they’re giving up the most touchdowns to the position by a wide margin – across eight games, opposing tight ends are averaging 1.1 scores against them while the Browns, the second-worst team, are permitting 0.8. Celek hasn’t caught more than one pass in any contest this season but he flashed a bit of upside last year with two games over 70 yards and three total scores.
Other tagged players: Marquise Goodwin, Aldrick Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, Garrett Celek George Kittle and Trent Taylor ruled out for Week 10
Both players suffered injuries Sunday. Kittle is dealing with an ankle issue but managed to finish the game. Even so, coach Kyle Shanahan has ruled him out of their upcoming matchup with the Giants. Fellow tight end Cole Hikutini is heading for the IR, leaving San Francisco with Garrett Celek as their lead tight end in a terrific matchup for the position. The Giants are allowing the most PPR points to TEs this season and are giving up the most touchdowns to the position by a wide margin – across eight games, opposing tight ends are averaging 1.1 scores against them while the Browns, the second-worst team, are permitting 0.8. Celek hasn’t caught more than one pass in any contest this season but he flashed a bit of upside last year with two games over 70 yards and three total scores. Taylor fractured a rib last game and Kendrick Bourne ended up playing a season-high 40 snaps while he picked up his first two receptions of the season (39 yards) on six targets. Aldrick Robinson, who entered the starting lineup for the injured Pierre Garcon, ran 55% of his routes out of the slot with Taylor down. Depending on how Janoris Jenkins’ disciplinary suspension shakes out, Robinson could end up with a great matchup with Giants CB Ross Cockrell, who gave up a 5/7/75/1 line out of the slot against the Rams yesterday and would have the most yards per cover snap when lined up inside on the season (2.44 ,per PFF) if he had enough snaps to qualify. If Jenkins returns, Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie would likely slip back into the slot; he’s allowed a catch on 10-of-12 targets when inside for 119 yards and a touchdown while his yards per cover snap (1.06) and cover snaps per reception (11.2) are towards the middle of the pack.
Other tagged players: Trent Taylor, Garrett Celek, Cole Hikutini, Kendrick Bourne, Aldrick Robinson