DFS Alerts
Tough Divisional Game Could Still Yield Targets for This Guy
I have Allen slated for a top 10 target projection this week, and it looks like a solid number of those looks will come against slot CB Phillip Gaines. Allen has lined up slot left or slot right on almost 2/3 of his action this season, and that makes it evident he’ll be covered by the Chiefs slot CB. Gaines has allowed 5.5 targets per game this season, and a sports a delicious 131.3 QB rating allowed in coverage. He rated poorly last season per Pro Football Focus, and his PlayerProfiler.com coverage rating was mediocre at best. This is a situation where the volume is there, and the matchup isn’t deterring us at all. It all amounts to a slight boost in his projection and keeps him in play for DFS again despite the rising price tag. It’s a tough divisional opponent but the volume should prove useful yet again for fantasy purposes.
As reported by: PlayerProfiler.com
We Love This Slot When the Matchup is Right
UPDATE FRIDAY 12:24 ET- Sam Bradford did not practice, and appears to be a game time decision Sunday. This obviously hurts the viability of the Vikings pass game, even if he does suit up. He’s clearly not close to 100% based on the information being presented. ORIGINAL TEXT: First let me say this: Adam Thielen isn’t a better receiver than Antonio Brown. We all know that, and his #2 WR rating in the WR CB matchup formula is a function of his incredible run of efficient production dating back to last season. He’s been outstanding, but let’s take a deep breath and remain calm as we analyze his individual matchup(s) this week. Let’s also keep in mind that his viability is tied pretty closely to Sam Bradford’s health. Bradford is hard to trust and he missed the last game with a bone bruise/cartilage issue in his knee. On to the matchup, Thielen will be lining up all over the field. He most frequently visits the left and right slot but spends roughly 25% on the outside as well. He’s constantly on the field, having played 98% of team snaps this season. It seems that he is a critical piece in what the offense hopes to do week to week. We should be looking to deploy him now before his salary rises. Of the three Cornerbacks who could cover Theilen, McClain would be the one we want. He was unceremoniously discarded by the Panthers last December after 11 games of low-quality production. McClain allowed 25 of 29 targets to be completed for 286 yards and 2 scores. The passer rating on these targets was 130.7, per Sports Info Solutions Inc. The game charting gurus at Pro Football Focus had him pegged with an abysmal sub 46 rating in each of his last 3 seasons. His first game in 2017 yielded similar evaluations. These type of metrics are in stark contrast to Brent Grimes, one of the highest scoring CBs in our system. Vernon Hargreaves is a first-round draft choice with the potential to ascend. It looks like Thielen’s role in the slot will help him avoid significant time against these two superior CBs, and keep him mostly in the coverage of McClain. So just to recap, we have a highly graded efficient receiver with a 6-inch height advantage and a better height adjusted speed score facing a low-rated journeyman on the majority of his snaps. He’ll do so against a defense that swallowed the Bears rushing attack whole and features two competent cornerbacks to help steer targets away. He’ll be very likely to see the juiciest matchup on the field, and receives a clear upgrade should Bradford return.
As reported by: Sports Info Solutions Inc. Browns LB Jamie Collins (concussion) isn't expected to play Week 3
James Burgess will likely start in his place against the Colts this Sunday. Cleveland’s linebackers have gotten off to a poor start, particularly in pass coverage. Collins and Christian Kirksey are allowing a reception every 4.1 and 4.8 cover snaps, respectively, which is the worst and fourth-worst rates among linebackers with more than 12 cover snaps, per PFF. Combined with Joe Schobert, the trio has given up a combined 27/243/3 line after being targeted 33 times through two games. Over the same span, their cornerbacks and safeties have been targeted 29 times and given up a combined 20/223/1 line. Outside of Jamar Taylor, who’s allowed 11 catches on 12 targets, no cornerback or safety has allowed more than three receptions while each of their starting linebackers has accounted for at least five. It’s clear how teams will attack the Browns. Last week, Baltimore’s tight ends combined for 13 receptions for 121 yards and their running backs accumulated seven catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. A week prior, they held Le’Veon Bell in check – three receptions for 15 yards – but Jesse James scored on them twice while pulling down six of his eight targets for 41 yards. Although the Colts haven’t used their running backs in the passing game very much this season – Gore, Mack, and Turbin have combined for seven targets this year – quarterback Jacoby Brissett showed instant chemistry with Jack Doyle. The tight end hauled in all eight of his targets for 79 yards last week against the Cardinals. With Brissett still new to this offense, he’ll probably need to keep relying on Doyle as a safety valve and he has a great matchup to find success while doing so. Doyle remains cheap and checks in as our TE7 in points-per-dollar projections on DraftKings, TE9 on FanDuel. He could end up being a popular option in fantasy, it’ll be worth taking a look at him in our projected ownership this weekend.
Other tagged players: Jack Doyle
Jordy Nelson (quad) expects to play Week 3
The receiver was able to practice Wednesday and says his injury is healing well. Nelson will primarily line up across from Adam Jones, who earned a 59.3 coverage grade from PFF in his season debut last week. His numbers were solid, he allowed four catches for 34 scoreless yards while being targeted ten times, but he was facing a rookie quarterback in his first start who didn’t really have any pass-catchers. Green Bay is a whole different story and the Rodgers-Nelson connection will be a tough challenge for Jones. Last year, the CB allowed a 67.1% catch rate but limited receivers to 0.19 fantasy points per route defended. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him permit more production this year, in his age-33 season. Our WR/CB matchup model provides Nelson a favorable 27.94 rating, the 13th-highest in Week 3.
As reported by: Packers.com You Want To Target This Slot Corner
With Sam Bradford questionable, I’m not expecting a lot of people to be on Thielen this weekend, and I fully expect Bradford to play here. Thielen has a 98.3% snap share, which is the six highest among wide receivers this season. He has 16 targets, and a 87.5% catch rate, which is sixth among wide receivers. Ten of those 16 targets came with Sam Bradford in Week 1, and he had two red zone targets in that game. Robert McClain was with Carolina last season, and he was one of the reasons we picked on that secondary. Quarterbacks had a 114.4 passer rating when targeting him last season, and he allowed a 89.3% catch rate. He didn’t play the slot last season, but in his only game this season, he allowed six catches on six targets. If Bradford plays, Thielen is one of the best full point PPR receivers on the slate.
This Cheap RB Just Might Be The Surprise Key To The Weekend
Mixon is not a play for the cautious, but I will be investing a small percentage of my tournament bankroll into this play in Week 3. When Ken Zampese was fired as offensive coordinator of the Bengals after their abysmal start to the season, the buzz around the team was that they wanted to get A.J. Green more involved, and they wanted to clean up the mess in the backfield. A.J. Green is quickly shifting from “high-upside contrarian option” in Week 3 to “mega chalk” with all the talk about him, while Joe Mixon is going entirely overlooked. I understand that it is difficult to pull the trigger on a player who has seen only 38 snaps through two weeks of action, and there is a strong chance that Mixon will stay in a timeshare for at least a few more weeks. But if the Bengals make a shift to Mixon immediately, those who take the plunge will have a low-cost, unowned play that boasts a whole lot of upside. This is the perfect type of play to stash on a small percentage of your rosters if you are going with a multi-entry approach this week, as it will pay off huge if it hits.
This Overlooked WR In A Shootout Is In An Excellent Spot
Mohamed Sanu is not typically a guy people target in DFS, as they are – understandably – more attracted to the raw upside of Julio Jones. But Matt Ryan has shown a willingness so far in Steve Sarkisian’s system to target Sanu when the defense is focused on Julio (as defenses tend to be), with 14 targets going to Julio thus far, and 15 going to Sanu. All last season, targeting slot receivers against Quandre Diggs of the Lions was automatic for DFSers, yet Sanu and his 65% slot rate is going overlooked this week. With Darius Slay sticking to Julio in Week 3, we could see yet another week of extra targets flowing to Sanu, giving him a strong floor and nice upside in a game that is likely to shoot out.
Let's Not Make It Three Weeks in a Row
This will be the third straight weekend I’ve been extremely high on Baldwin, and I’m hoping he makes me the money back from the first two times. He’s played 94.66% of the snaps this season, and he’s run a majority of his snaps in the slot. He should see a good portion of Logan Ryan in the slot, and Ryan has allowed an 80% catch rate this season. Baldwin only has ten catches on 13 targets this season, but averaged 7.8 targets per game last season. With Jimmy Graham banged up right now, I expect a big week from Baldwin. The Titans have above average outside corners, but they’re very beatable in the slot and the middle of the field. With this offensive line struggling, expect a lot of little quick passes to Baldwin.
This Beast WR Looks to Keep it Going This Weekend
Mike Evans went off in his first game of the season last week with 7 receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown, and DraftKings made him even more affordable this week by lowering his salary $200 to $7,500 (FanDuel raised his price $100 to $8,600). Minnesota has allowed the 8th most passing yards in the league this season, and even though there hasn’t yet been a line set for this game, I expect Tampa Bay to lean on the passing game, particularly if Sam Bradford is able to start for Minnesota. Evans led all players last season with 173 targets, and he should be heavily involved this weekend in Minnesota.
Don't Overlook This Young QB
There is no line on the Minnesota-Tampa Bay game yet, presumably due to the question of who will be starting at Quarterback for the Vikings. One thing we do know, however, is that Minnesota is 25th in the league in passing defense, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay is still missing suspended Running Back Doug Martin, so I expect them to lean on the passing game this week in Minnesota. Winston improved his passing yards, completion percentage, and touchdowns last year from this rookie year in 2015, improvement I expect to continue this season.
Here's an Appealing Option in Possible Shootout
Detroit is only 12th in the implied point total rankings this week, but there is some appeal in taking the pieces of a passing game that will be at home as an underdog. Tate was 14th among all wide receivers with 135 targets last season, and is 12th this season with 15 targets. Atlanta’s secondary is 23rd in passing yards allowed this year, and has faced more passing attempts than any other team this season. This matchup could be close and high scoring, which bodes well for Detoit’s targets leader over the past two seasons.
Detroit to Pass Often to Keep Up With Atlanta?
This week’s second-highest over/under belongs to the Atlanta-Detroit matchup, which features Detroit as a three-point home underdog. Quarterbacks generally perform better at home, and Stafford is no exception, averaging 285.9 passing yards with 107 TDs in 56 career home games. Stafford is tied for the league lead with 6 passing TDs in his first two games, although he only has 414 passing yards. Those yards should come though, as Stafford finished sixth in the league last year with 4,327 passing yards. Detroit will likely have to keep passing this weekend to keep up with Atlanta, which means a big score could be in store for Stafford.
Targets Available Against New Orleans Pass Defense
The Panthers offense hasn’t been clicking yet, but it hasn’t had to – Carolina has held both of its opponents this year (Buffalo and San Francisco) to 3 points. Next up is New Orleans, and Cam Newton and company will likely have to air the ball out a little more then they’re used to against the league’s worst pass defense. Benjamin caught 63 passes on 118 targets last season for 941 yards and 7 TDs, all numbers that were a notch below his rookie season in 2014 (he missed all of 2015 with an injury). The key number here may be 127 targets – that’s how many target Tight End Greg Olsen had last year and are now available with Olsen on the shelf. Some of those will likely go to Christian McCaffrey, but for this game, with the Saints’ exploitable secondary, I’d expect a chunk of them go straight to Kelvin Benjamin.
The More Oakland Exposure in Cash Games, the Better
I like getting another piece of this WAS/OAK game (highest over/under on the board) in my FanDuel cash games with Cooper. By saving at quarterback with Cousins in cash games, you can easily fit in a stud running back with Cooper and A.J. Green. Some viable cheap tight ends help facilitate that too. I am not that worried about Cooper’s lack of production in Week 2. Crabtree’s early touchdowns set the pace for a game that got out of hand early, which resulted in the Raiders being split almost 50/50 between run and pass plays. That negative game script was part of the reason that Cooper only saw five targets (which was still second highest on the team). In a closer game in Week 1 against the Titans, Cooper saw 13 targets, four of which were in the red zone. In what figures to be a shootout, I want to be sure I have some Raiders exposure in my cash game lineups. At this point in the week, Cooper looks to be that guy for me. Washington ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA last year and has only slightly improved so far this year (20th). I like locking in Cooper at this attackable price tag on FanDuel ($7,700) for one of my three wide receiver slots.
Quarterback Down a Weapon Facing League’s Worst Pass Defense
Newton has been a downright disappointment this season after offseason shoulder surgery, with only 399 passing yards and 30 rushing yards through two games. Now he also has to deal with losing one of his favorite receivers, tight end Greg Olsen. Why is there reason for optimism this week? He is facing the most atrocious pass defense in the league, the New Orleans Saints. The Panthers have the fifth-highest projected point total against a Saints defense that has allowed an astounding 377 passing yards per game. Carolina may have to open their offense up after holding their first two opponents, Buffalo and San Francisco, to 3 points each, and the Saints pass defense should give them plenty of opportunities.