DFS Alerts

Falcons confirm Julio Jones (toe) will play Sunday

Jones aggravated an existing toe injury against the Seahawks, which limited the star receiver to 58% of the offensive snaps. Despite being off the field for nearly half the game, he pulled off a 6/67/1 line. In order to rehab the toe, he’ll be limited in practice this week but Atlanta’s coach, Dan Quinn, told the media Jones would be “ready to rock” against the Packers. It’s an incredibly enticing matchup; the game total is currently set at 61 points – the highest of any game this season – and Green Bay’s secondary is banged up and struggling. Dez Bryant tore them apart for nine receptions, 132 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Jones has a different situation on his hand, though, so it may be best to temper expectations for now. Matt Ryan spreads the ball more than anyone, as his offensive scheme dictates. He’s thrown a touchdown to 13 different players, ten of whom have caught multiple scores. On top of that, Jones is dealing with the injury. Falcons beat writers have done a pretty good job of covering Julio’s health and predicting how it’ll affect his play. We should have some solid information well before game day.

Ladarius Green officially inactive Sunday

Jesse James will get the start at tight end. Although he’s not a great fantasy option in general, as he rarely receives more than four targets, he’s a potential low-owned late swap for blocked lineups. We projected his ownership at 3% on DraftKings. Kansas City ranks 7th in pass DVOA and they’ve allowed the 7th-fewest DK points per game to tight ends this season. It’s not the best spot, he’s more of a desperation play. Ben Roethlisberger will likely target Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Eli Rogers ahead of James. Plus, with Ben’s poor home/away splits and Kansas City ranking 26th in rush DVOA, Pittsburgh may rely heavily on Bell’s legs tonight.

Mild weather expected in Kansas City by game time

RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth expects freezing rain to pass through Kansas City this afternoon but there should only be light (not freezing) rain tonight for the Steelers-Chiefs game. Arrowhead Stadium finished installing a brand new multi-million dollar heating system this past offseason for this exact type of situation. There shouldn’t be any lingering issues following the freezing rain and the turf should be fine for play – in other words, it will not be slippery from ice. Weather shouldn’t be much of a factor tonight.

Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne active Sunday

Claiborne was playing well prior to injuring his groin in Week 8, earning an 82.8 grade from Pro Football Focus through the first seven weeks. His return is bad news for Geronimo Allison. Claiborne rarely moves from the left corner position (95% of his snaps), which is the same side Nelson lines up on for roughly half of his routes. Presumably, Allison will see a similar number in place of Nelson in three-wide sets. Randall Cobb will also have a difficult matchup with Orlando Scandrick (81.0), who was one of the best slot corners in the game this season. Davante Adams will primarily matchup with RCB Brandon Carr (74.9). It’s a tough set of corners, which may lead Aaron Rodgers to rely on tight end Jared Cook quite a bit. Dallas allowed the most fantasy points to his position (14.29 FD points; 18.23 DK points) this season. Opposing tight ends averaged 7.5 receptions, 75.4 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns, good for most, second-most, and seventh-most, respectively. Jared Cook has had at least eight targets in three of his last four games and should be heavily involved again in this favorable matchup. Given his affordable price, he’ll likely come with high ownership.

Alfred Morris inactive Sunday

Morris is a healthy scratch. Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar will serve as Ezekiel Elliot’s backups. Prior to taking it easy in Weeks 16 and 17, Elliot averaged 24.35 touches per game. He should get fed the ball all day, especially if the Cowboys get up early.

Packers CB Quinten Rollins inactive Sunday

Rollins (neck, concussion, questionable) had been trending in the right direction this week. He returned to a padded practice Thursday leading beat writers to speculate he had cleared concussion protocol. Unfortunately, it appears he didn’t get final approval to play today and will be in street clothes. Fellow corner Damarious Randall is active and he’ll start in place of Rollins again. He has a terrible grade from Pro Football Focus (39.1). He should see a lot of Terrance Williams today as the Dallas receiver lines up on his side for over half of his routes. It’s very possible Ladarius Gunter (77.4) follows Dez Bryant around the field, which would leave Williams in a plus matchup for most of the afternoon. Micah Hyde (71.2) is a safety but with the lack of depth in the Green Bay secondary, he’ll continue to serve as the nickel corner. Dak Prescott has a nice spot today against a vulnerable secondary, he’ll be a popular option at quarterback with his low price. Dallas has an implied total of 28.5 points, the highest on the board for the Sunday only slate.

Jordy Nelson (ribs) officially inactive, as expected

Green Bay’s top receiving threat is dealing with fractured ribs, he was ruled out earlier in the week. The Packers will start Davante Adams and Randall Cobb at receiver and Geronimo Allison is expected to be the third man in. Jeff Janis is active, he’ll be a distant fourth. Despite allowing the sixth-most targets to wide receivers per game (22.75), opposing receivers combined for the 11th-fewest FanDuel points (28.59 FD points; 36.06 DraftKings points, which was 15th-fewest by DK scoring). They did, however, allow the most fantasy points to the tight end position (14.29 FD points; 18.23 DK points). Opposing tight ends averaged 7.5 receptions, 75.4 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns, good for most, second-most, and seventh-most, respectively. Jared Cook has had at least eight targets in three of his last four games and should be heavily involved again in this favorable matchup. Although their offense has been white hot, they may struggle a bit more than normal without Nelson. Their running game hasn’t been great and Aaron Rodgers’ production suffered last year without Nelson in the lineup, he averaged 239.6 yards and 1.94 touchdowns. Across the 2014 and 2016 seasons, when Nelson played every week, Rodgers threw for 273.8 yards and 2.44 scores per game. Davante Adams’ remarkable improvement this season may be enough to prevent a similar dip. He scored 12 touchdowns this year as opposed to one in 2015. He was 5th in the league in red zone targets even though Nelson, the league leader (30), played every game. Now that Adams will take over the WR1 role, he could see a boost in volume inside the 20-yard line.

Dallas never blitzed on third down when they played Green Bay in Week 6

Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson also reported that Dallas used a three-man rush on one-third of their defensive plays in that game. They basically accepted Aaron Rodgers’ ridiculous ability to escape pressure and destroy man coverage by adding time for his receivers to break free and opted to simply contain him inside the pocket. While Dallas stuck with man coverage they had three free defenders in the three-man rush scenarios. They’re expected to utilize a similar game plan today. Given Rodgers’ ability to scramble at least one of those extra defenders will likely be a linebacker also serving as a QB spy in the middle zone. If you’re considering DSTs, don’t expect Dallas to get many, if any, sacks today because they aren’t going to bring the heat. They’re going to have to earn their fantasy points through turnovers. Even though they managed to pick him off once last time using this strategy, Rodgers has been locked in lately. He hasn’t thrown an interception in eight games. Plus, Dallas’ defense ranks 20th in turnovers forced per drive (.114) according to Football Outsiders and they have the 5th-fewest interceptions of any team this season (9). Even though Green Bay’s offense could struggle without Jordy, if they hit their implied team total of 23.25 points, the Cowboys DST won’t accumulate points that way either. It’s probably best to look to the Kansas City-Pittsburgh game to find a defense for the Sunday only slate or late swaps.

Line movement: Chiefs now favored by 2.5 points

After opening as a pick’em game, the Chiefs slid to 1.5-point favorites during the week and the lined stayed steady until yesterday when Kansas city lost half a point. However, a bunch of money came in on their side of the spread Sunday morning and the spread jumped to 2.5 points in favor of the Chiefs around 10 am. This happened despite 54% of the total wagers being placed on the Pittsburgh side, according to VegasInsiders. We saw a similar situation with the Falcons game on Saturday when the spread moved from 4.5 to 6.5 points in favor of Atlanta. This isn’t a major shift, but it’s certainly notable as it appears some sharp money is on Kansas City today. This could be a reaction to Ben Roethlisberger’s remarkable inconsistency on the road and/or the weather concerns. The game was pushed to primetime because an ice storm is expected in Kansas City this afternoon. As a result of the line change, the Steelers now have an implied team total of 21.25 and the Chiefs’ total is 23.75. It’ll be worth monitoring the line today as it could be a useful tiebreaker when considering players for the Sunday only slate or late swaps. You can do so by using the Vegas Odds & Lines tool in the RotoGrinders research console.

Julio Jones re-injured toe Saturday, still expected to play in NFC Championship

Due to the aggravation of the toe injury that nagged him towards the end of the season, Jones only played 42 of 72 offensive snaps (58%) on Saturday. ESPN’s Vaughn McClure reports there is no concern about the injury from coach Dan Quinn. Jones is fully expected to suit up next week to take on the winner of the Dallas-Green Bay game. Both teams present nice matchups, but Green Bay’s secondary would be an ideal opponent for him. Even against Richard Sherman and the Seahawks, Jones racked up six receptions, 67 yards, and a touchdown despite only playing roughly half of the game. We’ll get plenty of information on Jones’ injury throughout the week but it seems pretty clear he won’t be 100%. Even so, he’ll be a strong option on the two-game slate unless we hear news indicating his situation is worse than it seems.

Chris Hogan (thigh) and Martellus Bennett (knee) both say they're fine for AFC Championship

Hogan was on his way to a big game before leaving with a thigh injury. He caught all four of his targets for 95 yards. While he’ll be behind Edelman in targets next weekend, he’s an interesting boom-or-bust player. Both Pittsburgh and Kansas City have had tough pass defenses, but it’ll be a little better for Hogan’s fantasy outlook if he gets the Steelers in the AFC Championship.

Unlike Hogan, Bennett had a quiet game, catching just one of his four targets for four yards. He’s been dealing with a knee injury all season and it was aggravated against Houston. He was able to return to the game. Afterward, he was very confident his knee issue would not prevent him from playing next week. Bennett will be a red zone target but he needs to score on those opportunities in order to be a valuable fantasy asset. He averaged 3.4 receptions for 43.8 yards during the regular season.

Malcolm Mitchell officially inactive, LeGarrette Blount active

This was expected. Mitchell is dealing with a knee injury and with Danny Amendola’s return, the Patriots have four healthy wide receivers active. Julian Edelman is the safest bet among them, especially in full PPR formats, he’s averaged 12.6 targets over the last seven games. Chris Hogan and Malcolm Floyd are in play for tournaments, as both have big play ability. Floyd posted a 3/36/1 line in place of Mitchell in Week 17 while playing 73% of the offensive snaps. Amendola’s return complicates things a bit but Floyd displayed some serious blocking ability last week that could earn him the number three role today.

Blount was sick earlier in the week but he’s all set to play the Texans tonight. On paper this matchup looks perfect for Blount; the Patriots are favored by 16.5 points and he’s scored nine of his league-leading 18 touchdowns in games they’ve won by at least 15 points (seven games). However, beat writer Ben Volin expects Dion Lewis to be the lead back today, which would align with the theory that the Patriots were saving him for the playoffs. He’s already been siphoning off some of Blount’s carries, his averaged workload during the past three games has risen to 16.7 touches per game from a 7.8 average in his first four contests this season. He may begin to take some of James White’s receiving volume as well. Lewis has earned nine red zone touches in the past two games alone, four of which were inside the ten. Given his price and the small slate, Lewis will be a popular value option today. We’re projecting his ownership at 33% on DraftKings. Blount’s projected ownership is 22% on the site.

Late line movement: Falcons now favored by 6.5 points

Atlanta opened as 4-point favorites and after moving to 4.5 during the week, the spread stayed steady until late last night. The total number of wagers placed had been pretty even between the Falcons and Seahawks, but starting around 9pm yesterday, it shifted to a 57-43 split in favor of Atlanta, according to Vegas Insiders. It seems that there was enough money behind those bets on Atlanta to cause a late shift in the spread. Beginning at 10:25am this morning, the line jumped from 5.0 to 6.5 points. It has since stabilized, returning to a 50/50 split between the two teams. This movement appears to be an indication that sharp bettors believe the Falcons offense and defense will both perform well today. Their implied team total has risen to 29 points from 28 and Seattle’s has fallen to 22.5 from 23.5. There’s no need to overreact to this movement, but it’s certainly worth noting and could be a useful tiebreaker between fantasy options.

C.J. Prosise (shoulder) ruled out vs. Falcons

C.J. Prosise practiced for the first time this week since injuring his shoulder Week 11. He was listed as a game time decision but has been ruled out. Mike Garafolo of NFL Network noted that if Seattle advances Prosise would likely be available next week. Prosise’s absence should leave Thomas Rawls as the clear lead back. The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the run and 26th in yards per carry.

Report: "count on" Dion Lewis taking over lead role in New England's backfield

The Boston Globe’s Ben Volin believes Dion Lewis will be the lead back for the Patriots against the Texans tonight. It would make a lot of sense actually. As Patriots beat writer Kevin Duffy points out, Lewis has accumulated 213 yards on 50 touches over the past three weeks while Blount has 132 yards on 51 touches. Plus, there has been speculation all season that New England’s goal was to have Lewis healthy for the playoffs. They barely used him for the first four weeks after he returned from a knee injury (7.8 touches/game) but ramped up his workload for their final three outings (16.7 touches/game). What’s interesting is that they increased his rushing volume during those last three games – he was between 11 and 18 carries – but, despite his superb receiving skills, kept his work in the passing game to a minimum (no more than two receptions per game). Instead, James White remained the primary receiving back, catching between three and four balls per game down the stretch. So, Lewis has already cut into Blount’s rushing duties (and could pick up more), and if the theory that he was being saved for the playoffs is true, he might take over for White in the passing game as well. Lewis has also seen decent red zone usage recently, piling up nine touches inside the 20-yard line over the past two weeks and four inside the 10-yard line. Still, LeGarrette Blount, who scored 11 touchdowns from the 1-yard line this season, should own the goal line, so Lewis will need to make the most of his scoring opportunities from a little farther out. While many expected (or hoped) Lewis could be a sneaky play this weekend, it doesn’t seem like that will be the case. We’re projecting his ownership at 32% on DraftKings, which is the third-highest among running backs on the site, and 18% on FanDuel, which is the fifth-highest at the position. Keep in mind that the Patriot’s are hard to predict, even for opposing NFL teams, and at this point Lewis’ “lead role” is speculation from reporters. However, there is good reason to believe what they’re suggesting.