DFS Alerts
Sneaky Sneaky Form
Picked up on the Merritt form train before the St. Jude Classic and he capitalized with a T12 there in Memphis. He’s now racked up six straight cuts made. He’s positioned himself at T41 or better at the midpoint of all those events, T20 or better thru Round 2 in each of his last three. This is not normal behavior for Troy Merritt but we might as well ride the hot streak while it lasts. His overall record at the Travelers is pretty awful (2-for-6) but he did finally figure things out last year, posting a T8 here with three rounds of 68 or better. Should remain under the radar so you don’t need to own much of him to go overweight compared to the field.
Converging Trends for the Short Knocker
Enters with progressive form (MC-T76-T46-T32-T20-T18). He’s trending in the right direction and that includes five straight events where he gained strokes tee-to-green. This short hitter comes with a load of pedigree but he hasn’t truly popped on the PGA TOUR yet. Not long off the tee, most TOUR events are tough for him to keep up but that’s not the case here at TPC River Highlands. Most impressively, he’s posted GIR rates better than the field average in 15 of his last 17 starts. That is one of the key factors here since the rough around the greens is extremely difficult. Pan’s fairways-and-greens style of play should pay dividends this week in Connecticut, making it an easy decision to add him to our player pool.
New England Bounceback
There is something to be said about comfort and motivation. Bradley has both this week, “We only get two events in New England all year. This one of them. So this is a big event for me and my family and one that I would love to win some day.” He is a perfect 7-for-7 here in Cromwell, twice entering the weekend inside the top 10. Tee-to-green is never an issue for Keegan, gaining strokes in that department in all but one ShotLink start this season. Surprisingly, he’s gained strokes putting in each of his last four visits here. Perhaps it’s that added comfort of playing on grasses and climates he grew up on. Either way, he’s a strong value play across the board this week.
Emiliano Grillo looks to bounce back from a missed cut
Like many other fellow tour professionals, Emiliano Grillo will look to put the sour taste of playing in the U.S. Open behind him. Prior to missing the cut at last week’s major championship, Grillo had made 13 cuts in a row including 8 top 25 or better finishes. At nine over par through 36 holes, Grillo was very close to making the cut and had the opportunity presented itself to play on the weekend there was a decent chance that he could have taken advantage of the favorable early weather draw early Saturday. For all intensive purposes, we can throw out last week’s missed cut and instead look at how well Grillo has played over the last few months. With a price decrease on DraftKings, Grillo should end up being a popular play in all formats this week and is in a good spot to once again challenge for a second career win.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown
Solid Form and a Reasonable Price Tag Make for Great Value
What does Rory Sabbatini have to do to get more recognition in the pricing algorithms on these sites? He’s now made five consecutive cuts, with four of them going for finishes of 30th or better. He scores well on par fours and hits plenty of greens, and that’s about all we can ask for with a player who’s priced as affordably as he is. The putter can be hit or miss at times, but he should be good for a made cut with top 25 upside. That will play as a value, especially in GPP formats.
Just Too Cheap
Grillo is the first slam-dunk mid-range play for me this week. His statistics stand out as elite for this course, as he grades out as my second best overall play just based on stats. He’s a great fit on these shorter layouts where approach play is of prime importance, and he has been locked in so far in 2018. Prior to missing the cut by ONE stroke last week at the U.S. Open, Grillo had been on a run of five top 25 finishes in a seven start stretch. I won’t let one bad week deter me, especially since he was on the wrong side of the weather draw a week ago. Fire him up with confidence, and expect a bounce-back week.
Ready to Build on a Strong U.S. Open
Berger found himself in contention on Sunday at the U.S. Open after firing a great round on Saturday before the conditions got too rough. The positive finish last week should have him brimming with confidence, something that was much needed after a surprising missed cut in Memphis at an event that he had previously won twice. His course history here is also rock solid, as he has posted top five finishes in each of the last two editions of this event. He ranks above average in my two key stats for this week despite his underwhelming year to date, and I would expect improvement as we get deeper into the summer. There’s top five upside here at a reasonable DFS asking price.
Still the Man to Beat at TPC River Highlands
Yes, the putter remains a massive issue, but I liked some of the signs he showed late in his second round at the U.S. Open. If he wouldn’t have bogeyed his final two holes, everyone would have been talking about his four consecutive birdies to get through the cut. Then, he would have been one of the first golfers out on Saturday in great conditions with a chance to climb way up the leaderboard, and this conversation would be drastically different. As it stands, he was saddled with his second straight missed cut, and nobody will want to play him here despite the fact that he ranks inside the top FIVE on Tour in both GIR and par four scoring despite his putting woes. He grades out as the top play statistically, and nobody will want to play him off the two missed cuts combined with the bias against the defending champion of an event. I will have at least 50% exposure to Jordan Spieth this week.
Doug Ghim set to make his professional debut
Former University Of Texas standout and current number one ranked amateur in the world Doug Ghim will make his professional debut at this week’s Travelers Championship. Over the past few years, we have seen the trend of accomplished elite level amateur golf translate somewhat seamlessly into success on The PGA Tour. Unlike some other big named players before him, Ghim chose to play all four years at Texas before turning pro. Armed with a ton of experience Ghim will look to become the next big named amateur player to make a splash on the PGA Tour. In his pre-tournament interview today Ghin hinted that he is hopeful to draw from the advice of fellow Longhorn Jordan Spieth. Ghim plans to set the bar high but realizes that he must also have patience in the journey ahead. Turning pro this late in the season means that Ghim will have to rely on the Web.com tour to gain access to the tour, but for now, he is just focused on this week. Currently projected to go way under the radar this week, Ghim is the type of tournament pick that could really stand out in terms of a pivot off other players in the 7k price range.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Horse for the Course
Steele didn’t have a great weekend at the U.S. Open, but very few did. While last week was a grind, he hadn’t played a ton of golf leading up to it. His ball striking hasn’t been quite as strong over the last few months, but he’s still ranked seventh in the field in greens in regulation. He has made five straight cuts at this event, finishing no worse than T25. He’s a good bet to make the cut (safety for cash games) and a good bet to post another top 20 finish (upside for tournaments). At this price point, I will gladly sign up for that.
Inching Closer to a Breakthrough
Grillo is my pick to win this week, yet he’s the 27th most expensive golfer on DraftKings and the 15th most expensive on FanDuel. He fits the mold of hitting fairways and sticking it close with your irons. However, unlike Russell Knox and Ryan Moore, Grillo is actually a very good putter. He is ranked 19th in this field in strokes gained putting, which gives him a huge boost over most of the field. Good ball strikers tend to be bad putters, but not Mr. Grillo. He has been on many leaderboard this season, so perhaps this is the week he breaks through and picks up a win. He has only played here one time, but he made the cut and finished T43.
Sneaky, Sneaky, Sneaky
Snedeker isn’t a golfer that is going to pop in any sort of statistical model. He’s not great off the tee and his approach game has been hit or miss all season. In fact, in this field he is ranked 101st in greens in regulation. All of this will help keep his ownership down. I see a class golfer that is discounted in price and finally rounding into form. He has made three straight cuts on tour, highlighted by a T6 at the St. Jude Classic. His preferred putting surface has always been poa and while there is some bentgrass mixed in, he should feel right at home on these greens. He actually led the field here last year in strokes gained on approaches and he has three straight top 15 finishes here.
Perfect Track for this Golfer
I was debating between Moore and Webb Simpson for this spot. While Simpson has the better form and the better odds to win the tournament, I’m giving the edge to Moore for one simple reason — he didn’t play in last week’s U.S. Open. He is the only golfer priced above $8,500 (DK pricing) that didn’t play in the grueling test. While I’m not discounting golfers that played in the U.S. Open, it’s certainly a boost to Moore, who should be well rested after his T13 at the Memorial. Moore tends to play the same courses well time and time again and he certainly has a soft spot for TPC River Highlands. He has made seven straight cuts here with four top seven finishes during that stretch. He tends to play his best on shorter tracks where he can pepper the fairways and use his strong wedge game to his advantage.
Safety and Upside is a Lethal Combination
It’s a strange week of PGA DFS as I plan to fade the top range of golfers completely. I may use the lineup builder to mass enter one of these big tournaments and get some exposure to Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas, but in my two main lineups, I will be fading all golfers priced above Casey on DraftKings. I roster Casey as much as anyone in DFS. He’s incredibly consistent and he brings win equity to the table at a cheaper price point than the studs. He was never in contention at the U.S. Open, but he played well once again, posting a T16. He now has top 25s in five of his last six events and he’s ranked fourth in my weekly model (which you can see in the video posted on Wednesday). If you are a course history buff, Casey also has that in his corner. Here are his finishes at the Travelers in the last three years — T5, T17, and solo second.
Brooks Koepka takes a pass on the Wednesday Pro-Am
Brooks Koepka finished off a successful defense of his U.S. Open title in style. With Tommy Fleetwood already in the house at a score of 2 over par, Koepka holed key putt after key putt in route to a spectacular victory. Koepka is in the field for this week’s Travelers Championship but opted to skip out on the Wednesday Pro-Am. The PGA Tour granted Koepka a waiver to miss Wednesday, but they fully expect him to honor his obligations and play this week. Winning on any given week is a hard task, and with the long and demanding grind of last week, it will be interesting to see how Koepka plays following the biggest win of his career. Since his absence on Wednesday is more about rest and less about an injury, you should expect Koepka to be ready for action on Thursday.
As reported by: George Savaricas Twitter