DFS Alerts
Adam Hadwin stands out as a clear cut source of value this week
In what is quickly becoming a week without much in terms of stand out value, Adam Hadwin is starting to gain steam as perhaps the best value play in the industry. On a site like DraftKings Hadwin at $7,300 seems like a bit of a misprice. Prior to missing the cut at the U.S. Open, Hadwin had almost become a plug in play in terms of safety for cash game lineups on DraftKings. Currently, inside the top 50 in the world, Hadwin has only missed one cut this season including seven top 25 or better finishes. Priced under 8k on DraftKings in all but one of his starts this season, Hadwin has played well enough to reach and or surpass his value for most of his starts. This former PGA Tour winner has struggled to make the cut in his two previous starts at The TPC Potomac at Avenel, but in a week where players are priced much higher than normal across the board, Hadwin makes sense in a wide variety of roster builds for the week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown
Marc Leishman projected for low early ownership
On the heels of a very disappointing missed cut Marc Leishman heads into this week looking to bounce back and continue his solid play from earlier this season. Currently ranked in the 21st position in the FedEx Cup standings, Leishman has a great chance to make The Tour Championship for the second straight year. Prior to his out of character missed cut at The Travelers Championship Leishman had posted six top 10’s in seventeen starts this season. While other big named players in the top end price range are grabbing up a large portion of ownership shares this week, Leishman at a very low predicted ownership represents a great GPP pivot play for The Quicken Loans Invitational. Leishman has made the cut at both starts at the TPC Potomac at Avenel including a tie for fifth at last year’s event. Having a short memory can be a great way to take down a big field GPP, and Leishman at very low ownership presents a chance to buy a talented golfer in what is turning out to be a somewhat weak field.
As reported by: DraftKings PGA Value Rankings Comfortably Contending
TPC Potomac presents an all-around test to these golfers and Tway is ringing that bell recently. Looking at his last 5 starts or even his last 10 starts, Tway has an average strokes gained over 0 in all four sub-categories (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, and putting). That has helped him post more birdies per round than the field in five of his last six starts. More impressively, he’s playing smart golf, avoiding double bogeys at a higher clip than the field in eight of his last nine starts. Tway packs the power to rack up fantasy points but his all-around game is keeping him out of trouble. Three of his six career top 10s have come in the last 40 days. Last year we saw Tway finally get comfortable on the big stage. Now we are seeing him get comfortable in contention. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him pick up a win before the year is over, so I will likely invest anytime he’s a bargain like this.
Sneaky Course History
Finally snapped the torrid run of good fun but was that just the calm before the storm? Before last week’s missed cut, Sabbatini had gained 4.5 or more strokes over the field in five of his last six starts. That recent run of steady results is very appealing but his history at TPC Potomac puts some icing on the otherwise average cake. Sabbatini is one of the few golfers with history here before the major renovations. Before that, he boasts a 3-for-4 record at TPC Potomac with three finishes of 6th place or better, including a win at the 2003 FBR Capital Open. The course had some major overhaul since then but those memories certainly can’t hurt Sabbatini as he looks to get right back on track after an MC.
Regional Love for the Swede
Similar to the Danny Lee story above, Lingmerth does a lot of his damage in this region. The Swede has 12 career top 10s and seven of those have come at the following events: QL National, The Greenbrier, the Memorial, or the WGC-Bridgestone. If you look at a map of the United States, you’ll quickly see the area of the country that brings out the best in Lingmerth. Adding to that appeal, one of those top 10s came here at TPC Potomac last year. In addition to that, he also won a Web.com Tour event at the course back in 2012. He’s very comfortable on the course and region, making him a strong candidate to contend this week.
A Solid Value Golfer
If you want the value play that grades out the best in our new RotoGrinders model, Power is the most obvious selection. We have him with a 73% probability to make the cut and a 24% chance to walk away with a top 20 finish, which are some of the best percentages down in this value range. He also made the cut here last year and has solid finishes in each of his last two starts, so he is trending in the right direction. He’s my favorite punt play on all sites and formats this week.
Trust the Statistical Fit
Woodland’s statistical profile for a course likes this always grabs me, and it’s nice to see some improving form right now. He rebounded from a poor first round to make the cut at the U.S. Open a couple weeks ago, and the upside is always there with Woodland. His statistical profile remains excellent with rankings of third in total driving and second in ball striking, and that should serve him well here. Given the weak nature of this field, I would consider him a top ten overall option this week, and he’s not priced like it. He’s one of my favorite point per dollar plays on the board for all formats.
A Young Star with Upside
Sometimes, in events like this, it pays to be on the young stars that are rising. Enter Joaquin Niemann. He doesn’t have enough rounds under his belt to qualify statistically for the season, but we’ve seen flashes of brilliance from the kid. He has three top eight finishes to his name in just seven starts, so he’s clearly acclimating quickly to the level of play that the PGA Tour commands. The problem is that all four of his other starts have been missed cuts. Talk about boom or bust! I’ll lean more toward the “boom” side in such a weak field, and with only 120 golfers in play, it would surprise me a bit if he misses the cut here. There’s plenty of appeal with Niemann, especially in GPP formats, as his tee to green stats have been excellent when he is playing well.
The Top Play of the Week
If you want the clear class of the field this week, here you go. Fowler is around six and a half or seven to one odds to win this tournament right now, and that’s about as heavy of a favorite as you will find in a full field PGA Tour event. While he has a reputation of choking on the weekend when he’s in contention, perhaps he can build a big enough lead this week to where that will not matter. He currently ranks fifth on Tour in par four scoring and 33rd in total driving, and he finished third here last year in the debut of TPC Potomac for this event. I’ll try to get as much exposure to Fowler as I can this week, with the only thing holding me back being the lack of obvious value plays (which is also a result of the weak field).
Chesson Hadley looks to bounce back from multiple missed cuts
In what has been an overall great year for Chesson Hadley, back to back missed cuts could provide caution to those players who take too much stock in recent form. Prior to his recent poor play in the U.S. Open and The Travelers Championship over the last two weeks, Hadley had posted 8 straight made cuts including 6 top 25 or better finishes over his last 10 starts. Earning his way back on to the tour via Web.com last season, Hadley has been one of the stronger value plays for most of the season. Priced up a bit higher than most would like to pay this week, Hadley still remains a strong value play in this somewhat weak field. Even with a missed cut in the last two weeks, Hadley still ranks as a top option in terms of PT/$K in the DraftKings RotoGrinders player projection tool. Still ranked inside the top 20 in the FedEx Cup standings, and highly motivated to get his second career PGA Tour victory, Hadley has plenty of incentive to finish the season strong.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Ben Martin is no longer in the field
Ben Martin withdrew from The Quicken Loans Invitational this afternoon. Daniel Summerhays will replace Martin in the field, but will not be available for DFS pricing this week. Martin has not been really fantasy relevant this season, but if you had him on the radar as a deep sleeper, please remove him from your rosters.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Five minutes to PGA roster lock and no major news to report
Outside of the already reported news of Greg Chalmers and Nate Lashley, it’s all quiet on the injury front this morning. Good luck this week grinders, as always if any late news breaks we will provide the updates needed. coming soon.
Other tagged players: Nate Lashley Weather update for The Travelers Championship
The weather ended up playing a big role in last week’s U.S. Open, as golfers who played in the favorable tee time waves had over a 2 shot advantage over the first two rounds. While there will be some rain to deal with for this week’s Travelers Championship, RotoGrinders Cheif Meteorologist Kevin Roth predicts that weather should have less of an impact on your roster choices for this week’s event. The potential heavy rain from Wednesday night should be through the area by Thursday morning, and golfers for the first two rounds should see very similar course conditions. Overall we can expect a wet golf course on Thursday that should begin to dry out by Friday with very little wind on either day. Unlike last week weather looks to have very little impact on your roster choices for The Travelers Championship.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Paul Casey makes for a great top-end spend this week
With major question marks looming around some of the bigger names in this week’s field, Paul Casey is quickly gaining traction as an elite top-end roster spend for The Travelers Championship. Playing in his third event back since missing time with a sore back, Casey continues to provide the rare combination of consistency and upside. In ten worldwide starts, this season Casey has eight top 20 or better finishes including his second career PGA Tour victory at The Valspar Classic earlier this year. Priced cheaper than other top end options Casey makes sense as a cornerstone of a cash game line up this week. Playing in his 4th straight Travelers Championship, Casey will look to improve on both his 2nd place finish in 2015 and his aggregate score of 35 under par over the last three years. Accurate iron play will be a key to playing well at TPC River Highlands and Casey tends to thrive on courses that demand well-struck golf shots.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown Rory Sabbatini looks to keep his streak alive
Rory Sabbatini is in the midst of playing some great golf this season. Heading into this week, Sabbatini is 16 for 16 in cuts made this calendar season. Currently ranked in the 81st position in the FedEx Cup standings, Sabbatini needs to improve on his six top 25 or better finishes if he plans on making a deep run into the postseason. Known for his ability to hit accurate golf shots, Sabbatini has the skill set needed to play well this week. Ranked in the 17th position in par 4 scoring this season, Sabbatini should thrive on a golf course that features 12 par 4 holes. Looking for value will is always a big key to success and Sabbatini at $7,200 is the type of bargain play that makes sense in almost any format this week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown