DFS Alerts
Tiger Woods was once a horse for this course
With only 7 tournaments under his belt this year, it’s probably too early to make a clear-cut decision about the future of Tiger Woods as a competitive golfer. Woods has shown flashes of brilliance during parts of this season but has yet to really play well for all four rounds of a tournament. This two time Players Champion will tee it up in this event for the first time since the 2015 season and will look to improve on what is already a great career record at this event. In addition to his two wins, Woods has five career top 10 or better finishes in his 17 starts at TPC Sawgrass. During his post-tournament interview at the Wells Fargo Woods talked about what he felt like were the keys to playing well at the TPC Sawgrass. Woods stressed that this course will test all parts of your game, but he felt like a big key to the week is knowing where to miss it. In what could be a second shot course, Woods emphasized that you could still score around the greens if you allowed for misses in the correct area. One of his biggest strengths throughout his career has been Woods ability to use strategy to his advantage. Still reasonably priced across the industry, Woods is worth a look in both cash and GPP formats this week. With the news of Paul Casey’s withdrawal today, Woods makes perfect sense as a pivot option if you like the rest of your lineup. While the verdict is still out as to which Tiger Woods we will see the rest of the year, his solid course history merits roster consideration for the 2018 Players Championship.
As reported by: PGA Cash Game Breakdown
Branden Grace to tee it up for the first time as a father
South African golfer Branden Grace welcomed his son Roger into the world a few weeks ago. Currently ranked inside the top 35 in the world, Grace is trending at a very low predicted ownership number for this week’s event. A past champion at Harbor Town Links, Grace has proven that he can play well at a Pete Dye golf course. Grace is four for four in cuts made at the TPC Sawgrass and could turn out to be a very interesting GPP play at $7,400 on DraftKings this week. With a field, this strong ownership tends to spread out, and there is absolutely no lack of talent and value in the sub 8k pricing tier this week. Grace at less than 6% predicted ownership offers you a chance to pivot off other popular plays in this price range, and could possibly be the difference maker in terms of taking down a large field GPP.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Paul Casey withdrew this morning from The Players Championship
Squarely on the radar of many in the DFS community Paul Casey announced that he will skip this weeks Players Championship due to a sore back. Casey will be replaced in the field by Kieth Mitchell.
As reported by: Rex Hoggard Twitter Risk/Reward Value on the Cheap
If you want a dirt cheap risk reward play, here’s one for you. Don’t let the fact that you may not know who Alexander Levy is scare you away from playing him. He’s a premier golfer on the European Tour who has four top 15 finishes in his last six starts, including a victory. He has posted great results on ball striking-type tracks, and I think Sawgrass sets up well for him. It’s his debut trip here, and I wouldn’t go nuts with exposure, but I will sprinkle him into my GPP pool.
Great Course History and a Great Fit for TPC Sawgrass
He’s going to be a popular option this week, but I am always a fan of playing some Molinari. His tee-to-green game was back on point last week after a few weeks of rest, and he should be ready to rock at TPC Sawgrass, where he has a litany of career success. That includes three straight top seven finishes the last three times he has come here, and his game translates perfectly to this venue. While some might be uncomfortable paying this DK price for Molinari, I can only hope that lowers his ownership just a bit. His increased driving distance this year is a nice bonus on the par fives, too. He’s a lock for me on FanDuel and a perfectly viable option on the other sites.
Please Don't Burn Us Again in a Great Spot!
Yes, Stenson has let most of us DFS players down a time or two in his career. We’ve all been there. From the poorly-timed withdrawal to the random ugly missed cut, everyone has been burned by Stenson at some point. However, TPC Sawgrass is a course that caters to his game perfectly. He’s third in all time earnings at this event, and his statistical profile is fantastic for this place. He currently ranks 15th on Tour in ball striking and 16th in par five scoring, and he comes in with solid form with back-to-back top six finishes in his last two events — both of which came on difficult courses. The price tag on DK & FDRAFT is a lot lower than I would have expected, so this is a great buying opportunity in all formats.
Top Upside Despite Shaky Course History
It’s no secret that he has struggled here, but he is showing some signs of turning the corner. He finished 12th here a year ago, and he got some more experience on the Pete Dye tracks by playing at Harbour Town this spring, which is a venue that he usually skips. This leads me to believe that DJ is serious about contending at Sawgrass, and we also have the narrative of him trying to hold on to the top world ranking. This pick makes me a little more nervous, but I’m all about leveraging ownership with these top golfers in a loaded field. That’s what leads to GPP risk/reward success in the long run. Obviously, his par five scoring potential is off the charts, as he currently leads the PGA Tour in that department, so that is a nice feather in the cap.
THE BIG CAT
It wouldn’t be my article if Woods was featured prominently. Even though his performance last week was frustrating, there are plenty of encouraging signs. He gained 7.5 strokes off the tee and on his approaches, he just had a bad week on and around the greens. If we know anything about Tiger, it’s that we can expect positive regression in those two parts of his game. Woods loves playing in Florida, as evidenced by his run of 12th, 5th, and second place finished in the Florida swing earlier this season. He’s won The Players twice in his career and has shown that he can succeed on less than driver courses. I’m on board once again. It’s time for the Big Cat to make some noise.
Consistency with Upside
The final pick of the week is Mr. Hadwin. It’s amazing how similar he is to Jordan Spieth. They have been two of the best putters on tour over the last few years, but that has flipped this season. They’ve both been tremendous tee to green, they just can’t seem to get a putt to drop. Hadwin has made 15 straight cuts (wow, right?) and he has five straight top 25 finishes. He has the game to compete here, as he is accurate off the tee, good with his approach shots, and historically has had an excellent short game. I actually like Hadwin over Webb, although will have plenty of exposure to both.
Everything is Lining up for this Golfer
Due to the strength of the field, ownership is going to be spread out more than it is for most weeks. Even though Stenson projects to be one of the highest owned golfers, it’s not going to be outrageous. We can play 25% Stenson and be overweight compared to the field. He has everything in his corner this week — form, fit, and course history. We’ll start with the form. He has three straight top six finishes, including the Masters where he had never finished inside the top ten. In addition to a win here in 2009, Stenson has six other top 20 finishes in the last 12 years. And finally, the fit. He hits his three-wood as well as anyone on tour, which is a big advantage on a course where you need to hit fairways.
Biggest Win of his Career?
Rahm’s temperament can be an issue on really difficult courses. We’ve seen him get frustrated at Augusta and at the U.S. Open. When that happens, he tends to compound his mistakes. We saw that in the third round of The Players last year where he shot an 82 and MDF’d. Even though that’s a small concern, he’s a world class golfer at a significantly cheaper price point than the likes of Rory, DJ, Spieth, Day, and Thomas. Rahm is very good with his irons and can get them up in the air as quickly as anyone on tour. This is an advantage at TPC Sawgrass, as the greens are extremely firm. I like Rahm’s chances to compete this week and potentially pick up the biggest win of his career.
Sergio Garcia in need of a good week
Known as more of a steady type of player, Sergio Garcia heads into this week’s Players Championship in a bit of uncharted territory. With back to back missed cuts for the first time since the 2004 season, Garcia will look to get his game back at a course that he knows quite well. In addition to his win at the 2009 Players Championship, Garcia has made 14 straight cuts at TPC Sawgrass including 5 top 15 or better finishes. The poor recent form offers buyers a chance to purchase Garcia at a discount this week, but his price has not dropped enough to receive much early week fanfare in terms of ownership buzz. Currently projected to garnish an ownership level under 10%, Garcia could end up being a sneaky option in both cash and GPP’s this week. It’s been over a month since his Master’s blow up and Garcia is in a good spot to play well at a course he loves. Recency bias should keep his ownership numbers down, thus creating a great spot to buy low on a player that has tremendous upside.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Luke List looks to stay hot
With another top 10 under his belt at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, Luke List continues to build on his best PGA Tour season to date. Currently ranked inside the top 14 in the FedEx Cup standings, List has 10 top 25 or better finishes in 18 starts this season. TPC Sawgrass is the type of course that sets up well for players who excel at hitting accurate golf shots, and List is one of the better ball strikers on Tour. Ranked inside the top 15 in strokes gained for this season, List has only been held back by his poor putting. The former Web.com tour winner has been close to taking his game to the next level, and while it would be hard to win at this course vs this field, List has the upside needed to crush his price this week. Priced down due to the talent in this field, List has all of the skills needed to be an elite value play for the 2018 Players Championship.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Four-time TOUR Winner presents Value at TPC Sawgrass
Diving down the board to search for some heavy value, this Georgia Bulldog becomes appealing as a final roster spot fill-in. Since changing his equipment at the beginning of the season, Kirk has rattled off five top 15s, proving that he provides much more than cut-making upside. At this course/event specifically, Kirk has posted finishes of T12-WD-T13-T13 over his last four appearances. As a native (and current resident) of Georgia, Kirk is very comfy on bermudagrass greens. He’s a four-time winner on TOUR but went through a cold patch after a wrist injury soured his 2015 season. Kirk has gained strokes tee-to-green in seven of his last nine starts which is stellar for this measly price tag.
Steady-Striking Argentine arrives with Hot Irons
The Florida resident has that angle on his side but it’s his form that makes him really appealing. When adjusting for strength of field, he’s gained strokes over the field in 16 of his last 20 rounds. Very steady! The Argentine has picked up four top 30s over that time, including three straight top 20s. Looking at his last five measured ShotLink events, Grillo has gained 7.7, 10.2, 5.2, 4.7, and 4.6 strokes in the tee-to-green department. TPC Sawgrass is the type of course where I want to heavily target the steady ball-strikers since there are hazards lurking everywhere. His elite ball-striking should help him avoid the big numbers this week which is half the battle at THE PLAYERS.