DFS Alerts
Winning Potential At Lower Ownership
We haven’t seen the “crisp” McIlroy for an entire week since the golf restart, but it feels like that time is coming. McIlroy has a ridiculously strong history in WGC events, and that includes a fourth place finish at TPC Southwind last year. He still ranks a respectable 34th on Tour in ball striking despite his underwhelming stretch, and stars and scrubs lineups make more sense here with the no cut format. He still gains strokes with the best of them off the tee, which should have him in good position to go flag hunting on this course. I’ll priortize starting with Rory where I can afford to do so, and he’s my pick to win this week. It’s time for him to get back there.
Gearing up for Next Week
I didn’t write Koepka up last week, but I mentioned that he was my favorite leverage play on our weekly show and in my model video. While he ended up missing the cut, it wasn’t due to his ball striking. He somehow managed to gain over five strokes ball striking in two rounds and still miss the cut. He lost over five strokes putting and missed the cut on the number. Everyone has been worried about his knee, but he says this is the best he’s felt in a while and he continues to tee it up every week, so it can’t be bothering him that much. He won this event last season and has a second and third place finish on his resume at this course. He loves bermuda greens, his ball striking is trending in the right direction, and we know he wants to be ready for next week’s major.
Grinder with Solid Course History
Poulter missed the cut his last time out and many of us that dive into weekly statistics suggested to stay away from him after the Workday Charity Open. Essentially, all of the strokes he gained that week were with his short game. Now, he’s a grinder that can gain strokes in all facets of his game, but putting is the most volatile of the stats week to week. I’m back on board with Poulter this week, as he’s much cheaper in a much smaller field. This is also a much better course fit for him. He tends to play well on Par 70 courses and he putts his best on bermuda greens. As noted above, strong all-around golfers tend to play well at TPC Southwind. In his last two appearances here, he finished T8 and T31.
Third Time's the Charm... Right?
If you haven’t been burned by Casey either of the last two weeks, then good on you. I’ve been burned twice and am ready for some redemption. The missed cut at the Memorial Tournament was largely caused by the eight he made on a par three and the missed cut at the 3M Open was largely caused by his putting. In the four rounds between the two events, he actually gained 7.1 strokes ball striking on the field. We know he’s going to give himself plenty of birdie chances and we don’t have to worry about him missing the cut this week. The fact is that he would be $1,000 more expensive if he played a little better the last two weeks. Perhaps the change to bermuda greens can get him going again.
No-Cut Specialist
Schauffele was six over par after his first round at the Memorial Tournament two weeks back. It looked like he was dead in the water, but managed to shoot three under par on Friday to make the cut on the number. He followed it up with a strong weekend and a truly impressive T13 finish. For the week, he gained 12.7 strokes tee to green which was second only to the eventual winner, Jon Rahm. Schauffele loves these no-cut events, as he’s won the Tournament of Champions, the WGC-HSBC, and the Tour Championship. Those are in addition to three second place finishes in no-cut events. Even though he hasn’t played great at TPC Southwind in the past, everything seems to align for him this week. The best part is that at this price point, he can be the first or second golfer into your lineup.
Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With five minutes left until roster lock there is no major news to report ahead of this week’s 3M Open. All of the field movement was early in the week with Brendon Todd being the biggest name that decided to take a pass on this week’s event. Fog has moved into the area this morning, so the first round tee times have been delayed by 15 minutes. Good luck this week grinders, resultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock.
Charles Howell provides upside at low ownership
Currently, inside the top 70 in this year’s FedEx Cup race, Charles Howell is having a very nice 2020 PGA season. In this very weak field, Howell is a proven PGA tour player worth taking a shot on in all formats for the week. Currently projected to have an ownership number lower than 8% Howell is a player that simply is being overlooked. Howell is a great ball striker who has historically played well on courses that lend themselves to birdies. Last season only 7 courses played easier than The TPC Twin Cities. With a similar setup expected again this year, we can expect a ton of bridies and eagles for the week. At last week’s Memorial Howell started hot and faded on the weekend, but if you watched any coverage from last week he was not the only golfer to struggle on what was a very hard setup. Howell finished inside the top 25 at last year’s 3M Open.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Lucas Glover continues to play well since the restart
Lucas Glover at both a high price and high predicted ownership often feels like bad chalk. This week there is a strong argument that Glover is not priced up enough due to his recent play. Since the restart, Glover is five for five in cuts made with 4 top 23 or better finishes. Always a great ball striker, Glover is a hot week of putting from contending for a victory. In comparison to other golfers in this field in terms of current form, Glover is a bit underpriced this week. When you look at his rounds in terms of showdown scoring. Glover has played 20 rounds since the restart and has 10 rounds of 40 points or higher. Most weeks we see the average points per round around 34 points. Fueled by his accurate iron play Glover puts himself in a position to contend in what is shaping up to be a very uncertain week of golf.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Chris Kirk looks to continue his comeback
Chris Kirk took the road less traveled when he decided to take a break from professional golf in order to deal with depression and alcoholism. Back from his break, and now healthy and happy this multiple PGA Tour winner will look to build on what has been a positive return to golf. With a win on The Korn Ferry Tour in June, Kirk proved he can still compete at a high level. The next start after his win Kirk played his way near the lead to start the week but then faded on the weekend. Playing in this week’s 3M Open, Kirk is a player trending towards a low ownership number. Game log watchers will see a bunch of missed cuts for Kirk this season, but his victory in June on the Korn Ferry Tour carries more weight than those missed cuts. Kirk is a proven talent on tour and is worth roster consideration this week in what will be a very weak field.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Carlos Ortiz is no longer in the field
Carlos Ortiz will not play in this week’s 3M Open. At this time there is no injury or COVID news associated with his decision. He will be replaced by Hunter Mahan.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Elite Value
Seiffert is not exactly a “youngster” by PGA Tour standards at the age of 28, but he seems to be blossoming into his prime right now. He finally earned a Tour card by finishing 15th on the Korn Ferry Tour points list a year ago, and he is making the most of his opportunity. He has made 10 of 15 cuts and found supreme form two weeks ago with a 4th place finish at the Workday Charity Open. Nobody has questioned the ability, and we are still able to get him at a value price tag. That said, his price is just a bit higher on DraftKings this week, which may keep people away with the first digit in the sevens. There isn’t a lot of exciting value this week, so I am more inclined to take chances on golfers that are “newer” to the PGA Tour who might be hungrier for top finishes. That’s obviously speculative in nature, but we saw that play out on the leaderboard at TPC Twin Cities a year ago. I’ll take a shot on the talent and improving form.
One of the Top Point Per Dollar Options
On a points per dollar basis, I think English is the best play on the board this week. He seems fully recovered from his battle with COVID a few weeks ago, as he returned to play at The Memorial and immediately picked up a 13th place finish. That included an even par round in the very difficult conditions on Sunday. We can only hope that his missed cut at this event a year ago leads to lower ownership in GPP formats, though I am not banking on that. He has five top 20 finishes in his last six starts, and the form does not appear to be cooling down despite a breather thanks to his COVID diagnosis. This feels like the type of field where English could contend, and he currently sits 14th on the PGA Tour in ball striking this year. I also like him as a Vegas bet at 33/1 to win outright.
Back To The Grind
Tommy Fleetwood has not played in the United States since golf started back up, and I wonder how that will eventually affect his ownership this week. I’m not concerned about a lack of form, as Fleetwood is as professional as they come and has surely kept himself fit during the layoff. We last saw him after an ugly missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational followed by an awful first round at THE PLAYERS before the rest of the tournament was wiped out. Perhaps the break did him some good in order for a rest and recharge period. Fleetwood is a class player, particularly in this field. In addition, all of the other top options have question marks. Dustin Johnson shot in the double digits over par last week. Brooks Koepka admitted that his knee is really bothering him right now. Paul Casey made an eight on a par three and missed the cut last week. Tony Finau shot an 80 on Sunday. This is going to be a wide open event, and Fleetwood is my favorite option at the top. He does not have enough rounds to qualify in a lot of statistical metrics this year, but he finished 13th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green in the 2018-2019 season.
Kevin Tway is no longer in the field
In what has already been a busy Monday of player movement, Kevin Tway becomes the lastest player to opt-out of this week’s 3M Open. Tway will be replaced in the field by Parker McLachlin.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Parker McLachlin Favorite Value Play of the Slate
Gooch is known as a very boom or bust golfer, but that hasn’t really been the case over the last 10 months. During that stretch, he’s made 14-of-17 cuts with five top 20 finishes. I don’t always go strictly off what my model says, but it’s worth noting that I have him ranked 14th for this week’s event. For reference, he’s the 44th most expensive golfer on DraftKings and the 40th most expensive golfer on FanDuel. His statistics don’t exactly leap off the page, but in this field he’s ranked in the top 50 in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, bogey avoidance, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained putting on bentgrass. Similar to Homa, he didn’t play great here last year but he did make the cut. Having experience on the course certainly can’t hurt.