DFS Alerts
Rickie Fowler looks to rebound from multiple missed cuts
Rickie Fowler has not missed three consecutive cuts since the 2016 season. As he prepares to play in this week’s Rocket Classic, Fowler will look to put his current two missed cut streak in the rearview mirror. During the offseason, Fowler made a swing coach change and was even seen experimenting with a new putting grip during the second round of the RBC Heritage two weeks ago. Currently trending as a low owned golfer for the week, Fowler has a proven track record worth of talent needed to be a difference-maker at The Rocket Mortgage. While there is proof that the changes made in his game are not quite where Fowler would like them to be, his -3 score atThe RBC Heritage was just one shot off the cut line. We have seen that making the cut in the first three events of the restart has been a tougher task due to the strength of each field. Fowler could be closer to form than his results indicate and the intrigue of getting a player of his talent level in a weak field at a low ownership level has the feel of a strong leverage play.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership
Low Owned, Long Term Form Play
I will start off by admitting that I do have a problem falling in love with golfers that strike the ball incredibly well, but cannot putt. I’m not sure there is a player on Tour that embodies this more than Hideki. Anyone that played Matsuyama at RBC Heritage got absolutely burned by him, as he lost 5 strokes putting on his way to a missed cut. Losing 5 strokes on the green is absolutely egregious, even for Hideki, and I am betting on the fact that he will regress more towards the mean (which is still being a bad putter). That said, if you take a step back and look at long term form, Hideki is one of the top ball-strikers in this field. With this play, I am betting on the fact that people will be quick to remember the missed cut from two weeks ago, and quick to forget the 63 he shot at The Players before the tournament was cancelled. He is far from a safe play, especially at his price tag, but I like him as a GPP option that has the potential to go extremely low on a course that should present a birdie-fest. Just be prepared to tilt over missed putts if you choose to play him!
Salary Relief Value Play
If we want to play Bryson this week, we are going to have to find some value somewhere. Tyler Duncan is not someone I have played a ton in the past, but his short term form right now is difficult to ignore. Since the return of PGA, he has gained 4.7, 7.8, and 5.1 strokes on approach, which is always a key statistic for me as I select my golfers. His short game and putting can be an absolute nightmare, but as long as he can keep it reasonable around the greens, he brings upside to the table for a value-priced play. He is one of the few guys that saw only a marginal price increase despite the significantly weaker field compared to the last three events. I don’t expect him to soak up a ton of ownership, so I am considering him a viable play in all formats for lineups where you are looking for some much-needed salary relief.
Overpriced? Maybe. But I'm riding the heater.
I have been on Doc Redman the past few weeks, and we’ve now seen his price sky-rocket from near minimum to $8500 on DK and $10k on FD. Is this seemingly excessive price hike justified? I personally believe it is. Doc is consistently striking the ball well both off the tee and on approach. He has shown an ability to grind it out on Thursday/Friday to make cuts, and is a guy I am trusting in my lineups this week as both a high floor and high upside play. The ownership will likely be pretty significant, so if you want to fade for that reason I completely understand, but I also think this is a spot where you can eat the chalk.
Welcome Back!
It has been a long time since I have targeted Snedeker, but this feels like the spot to buy back in. With these greens playing as a poa/bentgrass mix, Snedeker should be in good shape as one of the Tour’s best putters on poa surfaces. Snedeker shook off the rust last week on his way to a respectable finish in a strong field. He also has good baseline numbers on Donald Ross course designs, and that includes a fifth place finish in the debut of this event a year ago. Snedeker tends to run hot and cold, but he’s a fine tournament option in DFS, and I like him as a longshot outright bet at 55-to-1.
Don't Be Afraid to Mix It Up
Last week showed us the benefits of being contrarian with your GPP builds. Less than 2% of DFS rosters saw 6 or 6 golfers make the cut, and only around 8% of rosters saw 5 of 6 golfers make the cut. Unpredictability is a little more common right now after the long layoff. Throw in an easy course and a weaker field, and we can expect even more volatility this week. Wolff has not played well since the restart, but he did show some signs of life at TPC River Highlands last week. He only missed the cut by one shot, and now he heads to a course where he can attack four par fives with his length off the tee. Obviously, he’ll need to hit it straight in order to be in the mix, but I like his scoring upside in potential shootouts. Such was the case when he won last year’s 3M Open with a 21-under par score. I certainly don’t expect him to win given his current form, but we are getting sub-5% ownership and a dirt cheap price tag right now. This is a spot to buy low in tournaments.
Ready For A Win
It’s coming. The win is coming. Bryson has finished 5th, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 8th, and 6th in his last six PGA Tour starts. Yes, that’s six straight top eight finishes; three before the COVID shutdown and three after the COVID shutdown. COVID could very well be the only thing capable of slowing DeChambeau down at this point. His all around game is solid, and the bombs that he is now hitting off the tee should give him a lot of confidence on the four par fives at Detroit Golf Club. Given the weaker field for this event, Bryson has been installed with massive 6-to-1 winning odds. Those odds are too short for me to love in the betting markets, but Bryson makes sense as a play in any DFS format. He’s a very risky fade right now.
Harris English is no longer in the field
In what could be a very busy week of player movement, Harris English becomes the second player to withdraw from the Rocket Classic on Monday. Unlike Stewart Cink, English figured to be a popular golfer for this week so his removal for the field could have impact on projected ownership. English tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Good Irons + Putting Could Work Well this Week
If you want to play Bryson DeChambeau (and I really do), you’ll have to dip down into the low $7,000 range and maybe even into the $6,000 range. Hubbard’s stats don’t really leap off the page, but he’s good with his irons, he doesn’t make very many bogeys, and he’s a good putter (especially on bentgrass). He’s made the cut in each of the first three events since the restart and now gets to play against a much easier field. While he didn’t play here last year, he did post a T24 at his last appearance at the Wyndham Championship (Sedgefield CC).
Very Cheap if this Golfer has Actually Turned the Corner
Stanley is a play that I expect many to flock to given the course setup and his numbers from last week’s Travelers Championship. He finished T24 and gained over seven strokes tee to green. A year ago, he was in great form and posting a ton of top 20 finishes. Since September, he has really struggled but perhaps he found something in his game last week. When locked in, he’s one of the best iron players in some of these events with weaker fields. He’s not a good putter by any means, but has more success on bentgrass than on bermudagrass. He played here last year and posted a respectable T21 finish. A repeat performance will more than suffice at this price point.
Red-Hot Ball Striking
Varner luckily missed the cut here last year or he would be one of the highest owned golfers this week (I suppose he still could be, but I’m writing this on Monday and that doesn’t appear to be the case). He’s never been great on bermudagrass, so we can forgive his missed cut at the RBC Heritage. In the other two events since returning from the break, he posted a T19 at the Charles Schwab Challenge (+8.5 strokes ball striking) and a T32 at the Travelers Championship (+7.6 strokes ball striking). His game is trending in the right direction and he has a much better chance of a top 10 finish in a field like this.
Stewart Cink is no longer in the field
Stewart Cink has decided to not play in this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He will be replaced in the field by George McNeill. At this time there is no injury news associated with Cink’s choice to not play this week. McNeill will get added to projections once he is added to pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: George McNeill Cut Maker with Upside
I don’t expect Hadwin to be low owned by any means, but I do hope he avoids becoming one of the chalk plays in the $8,000 range. His recent form doesn’t look that great on paper, posting finishes of T43 and T41 since the break. In fact, he doesn’t have a top 25 on the PGA Tour since last October. The good news is that he has gained strokes with his irons and with his putter in each of his last four events. If you can hit good approach shots and drop putts, you can easily find your way into contention at Detroit Golf Club. Hadwin is a great putter when you get him off of bermudagrass and he’s a cut maker with upside.
New Short Game Coach is Already Paying Dividends
It doesn’t feel great paying more for Hovland than the likes of Sungjae Im and Tony Finau, but his game is seriously trending toward a win in the near future. Since hiring Pete Cowen as his short game coach, he is dead even with the field when it comes to strokes gained around the green in the last three events. That doesn’t seem like much, but he lost a combined 12.3 strokes around the green in his previous four events. Additionally, his ball striking has been fire, gaining 7.2 strokes at the RBC Heritage and 10 strokes at the Travelers Championship. His best putting surface thus far has been bentgrass (featured this week) and he played well here last season finishing in a tie for 13th.
Missed Cut Last Week and Missed Cut Here Last Year -- No Worries
Harman was close to making more core plays last week, but it felt like a let-down spot. He was priced up and expected to be popular. I generally try to avoid that combination, but I suppose I’m making an exception for Redman. Harman missed the cut on the number last week, which is easy to overlook. He’s ninth in my stat model and my 15th ranked golfer in the field. To put that into perspective, he’s the 23rd most expensive golfer on DraftKings and the 21st most expensive golfer on FanDuel. He is ranked above the field average in every key statistic that I’m looking for this week and while he missed the cut here last year (on the number), it doesn’t hurt that he’s seen the course.