DFS Alerts
Favorite Course on the PGA Tour
Fitzpatrick was close to being a core play for me this week and will likely find his way into my main lineup that I use in double-ups and single-entry tournaments. I was hesitant to load up on him last week because he tempered expectations for himself. I was hoping he’d have a decent week, so I could load up on him at Harbour Town and that’s exactly what happened. He finished T32 at the Charles Schwab Challenge while gaining strokes on approach, around the greens, and on the greens. He’s on record saying Harbour Town is his favorite course on the PGA Tour and he clearly fits the plodder type of golfer that I’m looking to target this week.
Elite Golfer Priced at a Discount that's Loves Pete Dye Tracks
The pricing came out and the DFS Twitter bubble went crazy at DJ being $8,500. I originally expected him to be extreme chalk, but some of that buzz is wearing off as we get closer to Thursday. We currently have his projected ownership at 15%, which is a green light in my eyes. He wasn’t in great form before the break and he missed the cut at Colonial last week, but I’m not overly concerned. He’s one of the few bombers that has consistently played well on Pete Dye courses. Over the last 50 rounds on Dye courses, he has gained the third most strokes in this field. He’s played here each of the last two years, posting finishes of T28 and T16. At the end of the day, I’m betting on talent over form when it comes to DJ this week.
Four-Day Delivery for this Postman
I’m honestly fine with either “Postman” this week. The original (Poulter) or the newer version (Poston). I’ll have shares of both, but only consider the former a core play. Poulter did exactly what we expected him to do last week — make the cut and grind out a respectable finish (T29). He seems to do this on all types of golf courses and then has upside on the shorter tracks where distance isn’t a big advantage. That should be the case this week at Harbour Town, which takes the driver out of golfers’ hands on many holes. Poulter clearly likes this place, as evidenced by three straight top 11 finishes here. He’s in good form, he’s good on bermuda (lives in Florida), and he’s a safe bet with upside.
No Fans Around to Yell "KOOOOOOOCH"
I have a handful of rules that I always follow in different sports. For basketball, I always roster Russell Westbrook whenever James Harden sits and vice versa. In golf, I always roster Kuchar on Pete Dye courses. It’s a simple rule and it has worked wonders over the years. While he missed the cut last week at a course he usually plays well, he double-bogeyed his final hole to miss it on the number. We can easily forgive him for that. There really isn’t a Dye course that Kuchar doesn’t play well at — Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, TPC River Highlands, etc. In his last six starts at this event, he has a win, a second, a T5, a T9, a T11, and a T23. It’s safe to say he has elite course history. Even though Kuchar doesn’t grade out as an elite play in my model, he’s one of a handful of golfers where I throw out his projection on certain courses and this is one of them.
Expecting a Big Bounce-Back Effort
I would love to sit here and tell you everyone will be fading Simpson because he was popular last week and missed the cut. Unfortunately, the PGA DFS community is far too sharp to let that happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being the highest owned golfer this week. I take the approach of targeting my favorite golfers regardless of ownership and then look to differentiate my lineups elsewhere (potentially with the wildcard plays below). Simpson is one of the best golfers in this field on Pete Dye courses, he has never missed a cut at Harbour Town and has two top fives in the last six years, and he’s one of the best putters in the world on bermuda greens. He hits a lot of fairways, he’s great with his irons, and he is solid around the greens. The last time he missed a cut (last March), he bounced back with a T5 at the Masters. I expect a similar type of bounce-back performance this week.
Scottie Scheffler is no longer in the field
Scottie Scheffler has pulled out of this week’s event. At this time there is no injury news associated with Scheffler’s choice to not play this week. Just like Kevin Na from earlier in the week, there will not be an alternate added to the field.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter
Kevin Na is no longer in the field
Just a few days after struggling to finish rounds in defense of his Colonial title, Kevin Na has decided to not play this week. The field will remain at 153 as Na will not be replaced. At this point, it’s only speculation, but Na did appear to struggle with a bad back last week.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Ten Minutes to roster lock at The Charles Schwab Challenge and there is no major news to report
After a multi-month layoff, the world of sport welcomes the return of professional golf. With just a little over 10 minutes until roster lock, there is no major news to report. The forecast for the week should not give an edge to any particular tee time wave and we can expect almost a perfect four days of Texas sunshine and very little wind. Good luck this week grinders. ResultsDB will be up and running shortly after lock.
Rory Sabbatini flying under the radar as a strong value play
While there will be a ton of fanfare for players like Ryan Palmer who is both a native Texan and Colonial member, there are other players with ties to this course that you can attack for value. Playing in his 20th career Charles Schwab Challange, Rory Sabbatini is a player you can always look to target on a course like Colonial. Accurate iron play and timely putting have been a benchmark of this PGA Tour veteran’s career, and as a past champion of this event, Sabbatini should once again feel at home in the lone star state. Prior to his most recent marriage, Sabbatini did, in fact, call the DFW area home and has a ton of local knowledge on how to handle this historic course. In addition to his win at this event, Sabbatini has six top 20 or better finishes. Currently projected at a sub 2% ownership number, the addition of Sabbatini to your roster pool is a great way to grab exposure to a player who feels right at home when playing at Colonial.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Rory McIlroy testing new drivers ahead of the restart
According to PGA Tour equipment insider, Jonathan Wall, Rory Mcllroy spent some time on Wednesday testing a new driver. McIlroy currently has a TaylorMade SIM 10.5 driver in his bag but was spotted testing a 9.0 SIM Max driver ahead of round one. Unless he wants to play an overly aggressive strategy this week, Mcllroy will not hit many drivers, and this news of testing a new club out should be considered not an overly big issue. With today’s ability to tweak clubs and shafts via modern technology players have a much easier time pulling the trigger on a potential change.
As reported by: Jonathan Wall Twitter Finding value by attacking a predictable metric
Prior to the addition to strokes gained as a way to measure and compare golf performance, greens in regulation represented a way to accurately measure the quality of a player’s ball-striking abilities. Even with the advent of stats such as strokes gained ball striking and or strokes gained approach, GIR or long-term GIR can still be a solid place to get an idea of how players measure against other players in terms of ball striking. Colonial Country Club will set up as a second shot course this week, and with such a long lay off it’s never a bad idea to factor in a stat such as long term GIR when you are sorting through stats for the week. With such a stacked field there will be plenty of strong value plays to choose from. Looking to build on what has been a comeback season, Harris English is the type of player you can attack for value. Relying on his steady ball-striking ( 5th in GIR this season) English should be in good shape to contend on a course that favors good ball-striking and timely putting. English played in a mini-tour event last week in Georgia and posted a very respectable 2nd place finish in a field of fellow touring professionals. English has 5 top 30 or better finishes in his 6 career starts at Colonial.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Colonial welcomes back The PGA Tour with one of the strongest fields of the year
For the first time in quite a while, The Charles Schwab will have a field that would be the envy of any stop on tour. Unfortunately for golf fans in the North Texas area, this week’s restart will be the first of a few events without fans. That being said this is still a great time for both the world of sport and more importantly for the game of golf. Sixteen of the top twenty players in the world will be in attendance this week leaving gamers a ton of variety as they approach roster builds. Justin Thoams will be one of the many players in this week’s field playing Colonial Country Club for the first time. Thomas got to play nine holes on Tuesday and shared his thoughts on the event with the press after his practice. While this is his first time at the course, Thomas does have the advantage of having a caddie who has been on the bag of two different Colonial winners. Thomas will tee it up on Thursday in what should be a comfortable pairing with Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler. The return of golf will be a guessing game in terms of figuring out any type of strong edge or angle. Despite his lack of experience at this course, Thomas is a player with more than enough talent to be considered a strong top-end spend for the week. With a proven caddie on the bag, Thomas sounds ready to rely on a strong game plan to navigate Colonial this week.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter Ascending Into Stardom
Morikawa is still young, but I am one of his biggest fans. He is going to be a star on the PGA Tour for a long time, and his lack of experience at Colonial will not deter me from targeting him even in a strong field. His iron play is absolutely phenomenal, and he will be one of the better mid-range plays for this event. For what it’s worth, he is one of my favorite outright bets of the week at 40 or 45-to-1 if you are in a state that allows sports betting. Morikawa has not missed a single cut in eleven starts this season, and he has not finished worse than 42nd in any event. The youngster has the longest active made cut streak on Tour at 21 starts. That’s incredible for a player that is only 23 years old. He brings a nice combination of safety and upside to the table and is a great play in any format.
Always Under-Owned
Fitzpatrick never garners a ton of ownership when he plays in the United States, but he’s clearly motivated for this event. He voluntarily flew over from Europe and served a 14-day quarantine in order to tee it up this week. His lack of distance off the tee is not a hindrance on a course which has only two par fives — one of which is basically reachable in two for everyone in the field. When he is on his game, Fitzpatrick can dial it in with his approach game, and that gives him upside at his reasonable mid-range salary tag. He ranked 33rd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach last year, and that is despite the fact that he generally only plays in the stronger field events. He has yet to miss a cut stateside this season and makes for an elite option in any format.
Elite GPP Upside
Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win for obvious reasons, but this is one of those cases where rust might play a factor. Thomas has clearly kept his game sharp during the layoff, and he even showed his chops as an on-course broadcaster during the Woods/Mickelson/Manning/Brady match a few weeks ago. The lack of course history will likely influence ownership on Thomas this week, and this might be one of the only chances for us to grab him at 9-12% ownership for the rest of the year. He has clear winning upside and ranks inside the top 45 on Tour in ball striking and scrambling. He also ranks inside the top ten in strokes gained on approach. Leverage, here we come!