DFS Alerts
Grinding During the Break + Solid Course History
Harman has done a complete 180 when it comes to his game. For the longest time, he relied heavily on strokes gained around the green and strokes gained putting. For those reasons, he never seemed to pop in my PGA model. Over the last year of play, he’s become an excellent ball striker. He’s still competent on and around the greens, but has improved greatly off the tee and with his irons. He clearly likes this course (five straight top 31 finishes) and has apparently been grinding hard trying to learn the secrets to these greens.
Lot to Like about this Texas Resident
Ancer is a good ball striker, although I think he gets a little too much credit in this regard. In fact, he’s only gained more than four strokes ball striking in four of his last 24 events on tour. I’m not sure why I’m saying something negative when I like him as a play this week, but I did find those numbers a tad surprising. Anyway, Ancer lives in Texas and played in one of the events Scheffler played in during the break. He was in solid form before the break and has made the cut here each of the last two years.
Not Too Worried about Mediocre Course History
It’s not a true golf sweat until Benny An misses a four foot putt while you have him favorited on Shot Tracker. It’s a tradition unlike any other. It will be interesting to see his ownership this week, as he doesn’t have the best course history — MC, T68. I personally see this as a good course fit for him. He’s strong off the tee, he’s one of the best in the field with his irons, and he’s second in this field in strokes gained around the green. So even when he misses greens, he will give himself easy looks at saving par. He’ll need to putt well to win, but I’m fine with a top 25 finish at this price point.
Home Course Narrative that Could Actually Translate
I’m not buying into many narratives this week. Many will target golfers because they say they have been practicing or because they were in good form, but we really don’t know where each golfer is right now. One narrative that typically gets overblown is the home course narrative. With fans and grandstands and tougher greens, these courses typically don’t play the same as they do weeks before the event. However, Colonial could play similar this week given the situation. Palmer is a member here, he’s likely spent all of his practice time here, and he has a ton of high finishes here. Sign me up.
This Gator Can Hunt Away from Home
Horschel is known as a Bermuda grass specialist, but that’s a narrative that has very little weight. In fact, his last 10 top 10 finishes have all come outside of Florida and his putting splits between Bermuda and Bentgrass are negligible. His last win actually came in Texas and he has good course history here, posting finishes of T19 (2019) and T34 (2017) in his last two appearances. He’s also a golfer that can gain strokes in all facets of his game, which is nice to have. When one part of his game isn’t firing, the others can make up for it. That’s not the case with most ball strikers or short-game specialists.
Time for a Resurgence from the Berger-Meister
There was a time when Berger, Thomas, Finau, and Spieth were all similar prospects when they first made it on tour. Spieth had the amazing start, while Thomas and Finau are the best of the bunch at the moment. Berger had two nice wins, but ultimately struggled after sustaining a wrist injury. It appears he’s finally over it, as he posted three straight top 10 finishes before the break. He even got off to a nice start at THE PLAYERS Championship before it was cancelled. This course plays similar to the one in Memphis he won at twice, so hopefully he can keep the momentum rolling.
Possibly the Most In-Form Golfer in the Field
Scheffler was close to being a core play and could very well end up being in my main lineup. Ultimately, I’ll wait and see what his projected ownership looks like. I like him as a play this week, but wouldn’t be quite as high on him if he’s going to be one of the highest owned golfers. We always talk about form when it comes to golf and Scheffler is one of the only golfers that has teed it up during the break. He’s played in two events in Texas and has finished first and second. He’s from Dallas and has been inching closer to his first PGA Tour win.
No Biases in DFS, Right?
I never seem to be on the right side of Reed. I’ll target him in the midst of a hot streak and he’ll miss the cut, then I’ll fade him the next week and he’ll win. While that can be extremely frustrating, I have to avoid my bias against him. He’s played some tremendous golf this season, posting top 10 finishes in five of nine events since November (including a win at the WGC-Mexico). He tends to play well at the same courses and has finished T15 (2016) and T33 (2015) in his last two appearances here. He has an amazing short game and can get hot with his irons at any time.
Sneaky Pick to Win this Week
I will have heavy exposure to Sungjae Im at this price point, but expect Fowler to garner one-third of the ownership. While he has underwhelmed over the last few years, that’s largely because of expectations. His results have actually been solid, especially in stacked fields. We shouldn’t put too much stock into this, but he regularly beat Justin Thomas in their practice rounds during the break and he was the best player in the two-on-two match with Matthew Wolff, Dustin Johnson, and Rory McIlroy. He loves bentgrass greens and has played here each of the last two years.
Better Form than you Might Think
Kuchar is a short-track specialist. He’s going to struggle on long courses where he has to compete with the likes of Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau averaging 320 yards off the tee. Throughout his career, he has routinely contended at these plodder courses where it’s more about precision than distance. It seemed like he was in bad form before the break, but he finished second at the Genesis Open and had top 25 finishes at the WGC-Mexico and the Waste Management Open. He should fly under the radar given his hefty price point, but our projections view him as a nice value this week. He’s made 10-of-11 cuts at this event in his career with three top 10 finishes.
Good Form, Loves the Course, and Hits a Ton of Greens
Chalk English doesn’t sound like a fun way to bring in the return of the PGA Tour, but I have a simple philosophy when it comes to DFS — if I like the play, I don’t worry about ownership. I target them and look to differentiate my plays elsewhere. There are plenty of strong options in this range, so hopefully that will help spread out ownership. If not, so be it. English was once one of the best young golfers in the game and has five professional wins on his resume. He admittedly struggled for many years, largely because he tried to become like Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson off the tee. Whether it be a different mindset or a different swing, he has really turned it around this season. Since August, he’s made 11 of 12 cuts while posting five top 10 finishes. In this field, he’s ranked seventh in bogey avoidance and fourth in greens in regulation. Despite being in poor lead-in form, he’s posted three straight top 30 finishes at this event.
Bomber that Plays Well on Technical Tracks and in Strong Fields
Finau isn’t a golfer that I was expecting to make my list of core plays heading into this week. He’s a bomber off the tee and one that we typically target on driver-heavy golf courses. However, he’s shown an ability to play well on these technical tracks over the years, very similar to Gary Woodland. When you take driver out of their hands, they hit more fairways and can rely on their precision iron play. In this field, Finau is ranked 12th in strokes gained approach, sixth in greens in regulation, and sixth in strokes gained around the green. He tends to play his best in strong fields and this week’s rivals that of a major or a FedExCup event. He’s not known as a great putter, but has actually gained strokes putting on bentgrass over the course of his career. The cherry on top is that he’s played here four times in the last five years, posting finishes of solo second (2019), T29 (2017), T34 (2016), and T19 (2015).
Extremely Consistent + Great Course Fit
I have no issue with any of the golfers priced above $10,000 on DraftKings this week, but will likely be starting my main lineup with Simpson. Once again, the best weapon for the truly elite golfers in this field is the driver and that’s just not that important this week. Simpson is a short course specialist and has quietly become one of the most consistent golfers on tour. Over the last 14 months, he has made all 18 cuts and has only finished outside of the top 35 one time. He has a win, four seconds, a third, and a fifth place finish during that stretch. In this field, he is ranked in the top eight in strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained putting. His course history has been hit or miss, as he has three missed cuts, a third, and a fifth. In terms of the best comp course, Simpson has some of the best course history in this field at Harbour Town. I haven’t heard anything about his routine during the break, but no news could be good news.
PGA Tour releases official COVID-19 statement ahead of The Players Championship
With the spread of COVID-19 now having a major impact in the world of sports, The PGA Tour released an official statement prior to the start of today’s round. The tournament will carry on as planned and those fans who are not comfortable attending can receive refunds. The tour will release more information regarding the effect of COVID-19 at noon today. So, for now, it’s business as usual and round one will start as planned. In terms of DFS, there is no news to report. ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good luck this week Grinders!!!
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter
Weather update for The Players Championship
Kevin Roth’s weather report is up on our new PGA weather page. After a few brutal weeks in terms of wind, golfers this week will have very little to deal with in terms of weather. The wind over the first two rounds will be both consistent and minimal as we should not see speeds past 10mph. Wind gusts on Friday afternoon could reach 15mph, but the chance is not great enough to impact the tee time draw basis this week.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report