DFS Alerts
New Rule in PGA DFS -- Don't Fade Buff Bryson
I have yet to finalize my main lineup. If I end up going balanced, I will be overweight on DeChambeau and Rahm in MME. If I go with a stars and scrubs build, I will start my main lineup with one of those two. At the moment, I’m leaning Buff Bryson over Rahm. His five-event string of top five finishes came to an end last week, but he finished in a tie for eighth. In the first two events back from the break, he has gained 12.1 (Colonial) and 9.7 (Harbour Town) strokes on the field with his ball striking. The scary part is that he hasn’t even hit many drivers on those tight tracks. He clearly likes TPC River Highlands, as he has progressively better finishes in each of the last four years — T47, T26, T9, and T8.
Form? Check. Course Fit? Check. Course History? Check.
This might be a mistake on my part, but I have a fairly simple rule when it comes to Finau — I play him on bentgrass and poa courses and avoid him on bermuda courses. I also like to play him in stacked fields. We get the best of both worlds this week, as these greens are a mix of bent and poa and we obviously have another elite field. Finau will be able to use his driver a bit more this week, which is always a positive for him. His irons have been a little off in the first two events back from the break, but I like his chances to bounce back at a course where he has three top 25 finishes. In this field, he’s ranked seventh in greens in regulation and in the top 35 of every other key statistic that I’m looking at this week.
Time to Pull the Driver Out
Woodland had a disappointing finish last week at the RBC Heritage, but he made a quadruple bogey on a par three on Saturday and a double bogey on a par five on Sunday. I’m willing to overlook that, especially since he’s gained 11.5 strokes on approach in the first two events back from the break. His off the tee game has really held him back, but historically he’s a great driver of the golf ball. This week sets up really well for him, as TPC River Highlands is more open than Colonial or Harbour Town and similar to those courses, it rewards accurate ball strikers. If Woodland can find the fairway, I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday.
Steve Stricker and Nate Lashley are no longer in the field
Steve Stricker and Nate Lashley have both decided to take a pass on The Travelers Championship. D.J Trahan and Fabian Gomez will be added to the field, and are not currently available in the pricing pool. Lashley should be back in action next week as he looks to defend his title at The Rocket Classic.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Nate Lashley, D.J. Trahan, Fabian Gomez
Five Minutes to roster lock at The RBC Heritage and no major news to report
Outside of a few early-week withdrawals, there is no major news to report ahead of this week’s event. Kevin Na, Scottie Scheffler, and Cameron Tringale should all be removed from your player pools this week. In terms of the weather, we could see the morning wave on both Thursday and Friday have a slight advantage as winds are expected to increase in the afternoon each day. Overall the edge is not big enough to stack either tee time wave, but you could look to play early morning golfers in showdown slates. Good luck this week grinders. ResultsDB will be up and running shortly after lock.
Other tagged players: Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Tringale Branden Grace flying under the radar
Branden Grace had a very legitimate chance to win at Colonial last week. Poor play on Sunday kept Grace from ending an almost 4-year winless drought on the PGA Tour. Had Grace finished better on Sunday we could have easily seen him as one of the top owned golfers in what is a very soft pricing format for the week. Ownership has spread out over the week and Grace has fallen from a 10% projection on Monday to 7% by Wednesday night. Even void of great form on Sunday, Branden Grace stands out as a great source of both value and upside. Grace is 4 for 4 in cuts made at Harbor Town including a win. Grace has shot par or better 13 out of his 16 times at Harbor Town and should have plenty of good vibes to build on as he plays a course that fits his game.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Weather update for The RBC Heritage
Kevin Roth’s weather report for this week’s tour event is up on the brand new RotoGrinders PGA weather page. While it does not appear that we will have much of an edge in terms of an overall tee time draw there could be a small advantage to playing early only players in both the first and second-round showdown slates. According to Roth, we can expect similar weather conditions both Thursday and Friday Morning, with each afternoon giving way to a chance of winds and or a small pop up shower. With Thursday’s winds potential having gusts near 20 mph there is a small chance that golfers on Thursday afternoon play in somewhat harder conditions than those on Friday afternoon. Forecasted lower winds for both Thursday and Friday morning could lead to a slight edge in terms of stacking for the showdown slates.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report Cameron Tringale is no longer in the field
Cameron Tringale is the latest player to opt out of this weeks event. He will not be replaced and the field is now at 151. At this time we have no injury news to report.
As reported by: PGA Twitter Looking to Build on his Fire First Round at TPC Sawgrass
When it comes to DFS, I change my mind quite often. Sometimes it works, sometimes it ends up costing me. I originally wrote up DeChambeau over Matsuyama, but have decided to switch the pick. The last time we saw Hideki he was leading the PLAYERS Championship after round one. He was solid with his ball striking and had one of his best putting rounds ever. Naturally, that round was discarded from the record books. Even though he’s never played Harbour Town, he’s a nice fit for the course. His biggest strengths are on approach (fourth in this field) and around the green (second in this field). He grades out as the fourth best golfer in my model, yet he is not priced that way around the industry.
An Elite Option At This Course
Rare are the days where I prioritize Kuchar, but I have faith in him this week. You know Kuchar is seething on the inside after missing a paycheck last week only by virtue of a double bogey on his final hole on Friday. Kuchar is a “Team RBC” member who always tees it up at Harbour Town, and his results here are fantastic with six straight top 25 finishes and nine straight made cuts at this event. He brings a great blend of safety and upside to the table at this venue, as his 2014 title and 2019 runner-up finish would attest. The reasonable price tag is a nice bonus, as well. I think he is playable in all formats, but the GPP potential is better than normal given the course fit. He should be ready to roll on Thursday in an attempt to put last week’s disaster behind him.
Intriguing Upside
I was skeptical of Rose heading into last week’s tournament, as his 2019-2020 form had been nothing to write home about for a player that commands a healthy DFS salary tag. He went out and proved the doubters wrong, finishing in a tie for third just one stroke outside of the playoff. It is probably not a coincidence that his return to form came immediately after his much talked about split with equipment maker Honma. Rose can now go back to focusing on sharpening his golf game, and he did just that at Colonial. There is no doubt that his statistical profile this year is ugly, but I am willing to put that aside given the recent changes, the long layoff, and the fact that he has not played in a lot of events this season. His all around game was fantastic last week, and this might be one of the final chances to get him at low-ish ownership marks.
Betting on Talent at Low Ownership
I’m pretty sure I haven’t written up Garcia in this article since before he won the Masters a couple years ago. His form has really tailed off since, especially on the PGA Tour. While he’s far from a core play this week, it will be very easy to be overweight on him compared to the field in MME. He missed the cut on the number last week, which can’t be held against him. He’s one of the better Pete Dye golfers in the field, as he’s gained the 10th most strokes of anyone over the last 50 rounds. Similar to Day and Oosty, we are betting on talent at a discounted price and ownership.
Pete Dye Specialist in Awful Form
Does everyone have their barf bags ready? You might need them with this pick. Again, this is an extremely boom or bust play, as Day has one top 10 finish since last July. He missed the cut at Colonial last week and didn’t do anything particularly well (lost strokes off the tee and on approach). There are many reasons to fade him. However, I love that he’s back on bermuda and back on a Pete Dye course. In this field, he’s ranked second in strokes gained total on Dye tracks and ninth in strokes gained putting on bermuda greens. Check out this statistic — in his last 69 rounds on Dye courses, he has gained strokes on the field in 63 of them.
Bridesmaid at all Four Majors
This section is all about golfers that are just as likely to post a top 10 as they are to miss the cut. These are plays that I plan to be over-weight on in MME given their upside and low ownership. Oosthuizen loves to withdraw from events, but he tends to play well in stacked fields and on difficult golf courses. This is why I target him in almost every major. He’s been pretty good on Pete Dye courses in his career and finished T7 in his lone appearance at Harbour Town back in 2014. He’s a world class golfer that can get hot with his irons and/or putter at any time.
Dominates on these Shorter Courses
Kisner rarely grades out as an elite point-per-dollar play in my model because a lot of my inputs focus on statistics and long-term results. Kisner is one of those golfers that tends to play very well on very specific tracks and tends to struggle everywhere else. His specialty is shorter courses, especially ones designed by Pete Dye. He has made each of his last six cuts at Harbour Town, posting three top 11 finishes during that stretch. He also picked up a win at the WGC Dell Match Play last year, which is another Dye course. He was very active during the break and even set up a match against the guys from the Fore Play podcast. He says he feels really good about his game and could easily find himself in contention this week.