DFS Alerts
Scottie Scheffler set to make his 2020 debut
Playing in his 8th start of this season, but his first in almost two months, Scottie Scheffler will look to build on what has already been a great start to his rookie season. With 5 top 25 or better finishes in 7 starts this season, it’s very easy to see why the DFS community loves Scheffler this week. Early in his career, Scheffler has proven to be a good young player with no notable weaknesses in his game. Currently projected to be the highest owned player of the week there is an opportunity to fade Scheffler from a game theory standpoint. Priced up in comparison to other proven players in his price range ( Francesco Molinari ), there will be plenty of decent options to pivot off Scheffler without changing a roster build. Pro-Am formats often favor the experienced golfer on tour, and this week is no exception. New golfers will have very little time to learn the three courses in play, and when you factor in the variable of extra patience needed to play rounds with amateur golfers it’s easy to see why experience can be a benefit for the week. That being said, Scheffler is a player that many are bullish on in the long run and it would not surprise anyone if he were to continue the strong start to his season this week. For those who like to go against the grain, a Scheffler fade is by no means a crazy play as there is an argument that projected ownership is inflated due to strong recency bias.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Francesco Molinari
Sergrio Garcia to debut new clubs this week
Sergio Garcia has decided to start the 2020 season as an equipment free agent. Garcia confirmed in a pre-tournament interview that he and Callaway golf mutualy split at the end of December. For now, Garcia has decided to remain a free agent and will play Ping irons and Taylormade wedges in Abu Dhabi. A future return to Callaway golf is not out of the cards for Garcia, as both he and the company seemed to have parted with no hard feelings. On an unrelated note, fellow European Tour player Matthew Wallace will join Callaway staff this season after signing a 3-year endorsement deal.
As reported by: Jonathan Wall Twitter Other tagged players: Matt Wallace First Win In The Works?
Sungjae Im is going to be an elite player on the PGA Tour for a long time. He faded in the final round in Hawaii last week, but that can be forgiven thanks to the horrible weather conditions and soaking rain. That will not be enough to dampen his potential. Let’s see if I can find some more rain puns. In any case, Im checks in as an elite option in this field. He finished 12th here in his debut last year. He has finished inside the top 25 in half of his career PGA Tour starts. He ranks above field average this year in basically every statistical category. That includes a ranking of 13th in birdie or better percentage and 20th in proximity on approach. There is almost nothing to complain about with his game — and he’s only 21 years of age. He already has a runner-up finish and a third place finish so far this year — don’t be surprised if a win comes sooner rather than later.
Winning Upside In This Field
When it comes to targeting high upside tournament plays, this is a spot where we can bank on birdie makers. I’ll go with the rested gunslinger in Scottie Scheffler. He did not miss a single cut in five starts during the fall swing, and he finished with five top 20’s in seven starts. He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour this year in birdie or better percentage — behind only Simpson, Schauffele, Cantlay, McIlroy, and Thomas. That’s pretty good company. These are the types of events that he can definitely contend in, and I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday afternoon. It’s also possible that he will be owned at lower levels thanks to his relative no name status among DFS players who did not play much during the fall swing.
Sizzling Fall Form Remains
English missed the cut in his final start of the fall swing at the RSM Classic. That makes it easy to forget the other strides that he made during those months. It makes it easy to forget his top five at Mayakoba. It makes it easy to forget his top five in Houston. It makes it easy to forget his top five at the Greenbrier. It makes it easy to forget his top ten at the Sanderson Farms. All those starts were part of a stretch where he had four top six finishes in five outings. English currently ranks 15th in birdie or better percentage and 2nd in ball striking. He has made the cut in his last six starts at this event, too. He is one of my favorite point per dollar options on the entire board.
Joel Dahmen is no longer in the field
Joel Dahmen has decided to take a pass on this week’s event. At this time there is no injury news associated with this move. Dahmen has been replaced in the field by Dominic Bozzelli.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Dominic Bozzelli Three Straight Top 12 Finishes on Tour
Taylor could end up being one of the highest owned golfers of the slate, but all chalk isn’t bad chalk. After a terrible round on Thursday at the Sony Open, he shot 11-under par on the final three days and finished in a tie for 12th. In his previous two events, he posted finishes of T10 and T2. He’s clearly in great form and he’s one of the best Bermuda putters in this field. He’s also ranked sixth in birdie or better percentage, fourth in opportunities gained, and ninth in bogey avoidance. While he doesn’t have a ton of course history for this event, he did post a T7 here a year ago. Like the other three core plays, it’s hard to find a weakness in his game, especially at his price point.
High Floor and a Cheap Price Point
Up next we have Mr. Knox, who nearly made the list of core plays last week. I always look his way on shorter courses, even if they are Par 72 tracks like the three that they will play this week. He has top 30 finishes in each of his last three tries at this event and comes into the week in great form. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 35 in any event worldwide since October. That’s fairly impressive for a golfer that’s priced around the average salary for an event. If his floor is a T35 and his ceiling is finishing in the top five, I’ll take my chances at this price each and every week. He’s ranked second in this field in approach, fourth in opportunities gained, and first in bogey avoidance. Being at the top of the rankings in birdies and bogeys avoided is extremely impressive and bodes well for scoring in DFS.
Under the Radar Play that Could Contend
I honestly can’t remember the last time I recommended Noren and there’s a decent chance that he’s never made my core plays article. The narrative around him is that he doesn’t play well on American soil and that he’s in bad form. Both of those are untrue, as he racked up five straight top 21 finishes on the European Tour two years ago (with his best finishes coming in California). It’s really been a form issue and that’s slowly starting to turn around. He has made 12 of his last 13 cuts on the PGA Tour and has four top 35 finishes in his last five events worldwide. At last week’s Sony Open, he gained over seven strokes tee to green, he just didn’t have any luck with the putter. If he didn’t lose four strokes on the greens, he could have easily found himself inside the top 10. I don’t expect many to click his name this week, even though he’s one of the most talented golfers in the field. I’m eating chalk elsewhere, so I hope to gain some leverage with Noren.
Course History, Form, and Statistics All Line Up
I am always tinkering with the weights in my PGA model, but as of Monday afternoon, Harman is the fifth highest rated golfer for this event. I wanted to start with my rating because he’s the 17th most expensive golfer on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Right away, that screams value when it comes to DFS. As noted last week, Harman has been a consistent part of my core plays over the last six months. After years of avoiding him due to terrible ball striking, he’s really turned that part of his game around. In fact, he’s ranked 20th in this field off the tee and 27th in approach. When you combine that with an ability to make birdies and limit bogeys, he’s going to appear on a lot of leaderboards. His T32 finish at the Sony Open wasn’t anything special, but he did gain three strokes ball striking. He has an elite short game, we just haven’t seen it show up consistently. I expect him to keep it rolling this week, as he has three top 20 finishes (including a T3 in 2016) at this event over the last four years.
Brendan Steele comes out of nowhere to contend for his 4th career PGA Tour win
Entering this week Brendan Steele had not posted a top ten in an individual tournament in some 23 months. Fast forward to Sunday morning and Steele is now in a position to claim his 4th career PGA Tour win. Riding an extremely hot putter, Steele has a 3 shot lead heading into the final round of this year’s Sony Open. Priced at $7,800 for the round 4 showdown slate, it will be hard to get away from Steele in most formats. Due to the windy conditions this week, scores have not been overly low in comparison to years past, thus making finish points a bit more important than a normal week on tour. Both Steele and his nearest competitor Cameron Smith head into the final round in a tie for the most birdies through 3 rounds ( 17).
Other tagged players: Cameron Smith PGA Tour rookie Michael Gellerman in position to post best finish to date
Sitting just two shots out of the lead heading into round three of the Sony Open, Michael Gellerman finds himself in both a great position and a spot of uncertainty. Finding your way as a PGA Tour rookie is never an easy thing, and a strong early-season performance would go a long way for Gellerman. As a past winner on The Korn Ferry Tour, Gellerman has shown he can play well on the weekend when the pressure is magnified. The question remains can Gellerman make the leap from The Korn Ferry Tour to golf’s biggest stage. Averaging 2.29 DK showdown points over the first two rounds, Gellerman stands out as one of the better point per dollar players over the first two rounds of play. Still priced below 7k for Saturday’s slate, Gellerman could be a player that once again performs well in comparison to the price. Playing in only his 3rd Saturday PGA Tour round Gellerman will have the challenge of playing near the lead for the first time this season.
Wind continues to be factor this week
Windy conditions played a strong factor over the first two days of the Sony Open. Overall the tee time split favored the late/early wave by almost three shots. Zach Johnson played well this week despite playing in the tougher of two draws. This former Sony Open Champion starts the season strong as he looks to put a disappointing 2019 season in the review mirror. Averaging 2.02 DK Showdown points per hole over the first two days, Johnson will look to build on an excellent start to this year’s Sony Open. WIth ownership less than 10% over the first two days, Johnson has gone largely unnoticed and could end up being sneaky play in both showdown and weekend slates. In nine career Saturday rounds at The Sony Open, Johnson owns a scoring average of 68.7 highlighted three rounds of 66 or better. Typically a strong wind player Johnson stands to be a strong factor in what will continue to be windy conditions for this week’s event.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
It’s all quiet on the news front this week. Kevin Na and Aaron Baddeley are the only two players to take a pass on this week’s event. Good luck this week grinders, ResultsDb will be up and running shortly after lock. Please check back to see how your lineups stack up against the field.
Other tagged players: Aaron Baddeley Weather update for The Sony Open
For the second straight week, players will have to deal with what appears to be quite a bit of wind. Kevin Roth’s weather report is up in the main forum and it looks like the only edge we have in terms of weather is to lean towards golfers who play better in the wind. With wind speeds expected to reach 30 mph on both Thursday and Friday conditions should be the same for everyone in the field. Typically in windy conditions, you like to target players who not only hit it very solid but those who also can flight golf shots lower if needed. I typically lean towards golfers who also grew up playing this style of golf, for example, golfers who played in Texas and or Australia often come to mind in a windy environment. Overall the wind conditions could limit the normally low scores we see on this course.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report