DFS Alerts
Kevin Tway inks new equipment deal
Even though The Sony Open is actually the 14th event of the 2020 season, players use the downtime between the wrap around season and the start of the new year to implement equipment changes. Kevin Tway announced today that he has signed a multi-year deal with Wilson Golf. The deal calls for Tway to play irons and wedges. Hoping to have the same success that fellow Wilson staff member Gary Woodland had when making the switch last season, Tway will look to improve on year in which he missed making it to The Tour Championship by one spot. Equipment changes at this time of year are typically not something to be worried about, as players have plenty of time to tweak equipment to their liking.
As reported by: Golf.Com
Charles Howell looks to build on an excellent course history
For those new to DFS golf, Charles Howell is the type of player many in the industry like to target early in the season. For whatever reason, Howell typically plays his best golf from now until the end of March. This week’s Sony Open is a place that Howell has played well for a very long period of time. Howell has made all of his 18 cuts at this event highlighted by 10 top ten or better finishes. In his last 40 rounds at Waialae Country Club Howell has only failed to break par 3 times. For those of you looking to gain an edge at Showdown slates, Howell has posted 15 rounds of 66 ( 4 under ) or better in his last 10 starts at The Sony Open. Currently projected at around 11% ownership, Howell is a player that feels somewhat overlooked this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Kevin Na is no longer in the field
Kevin Na has withdrawn from The Sony Open and will be replaced in the field by Vince Covello. Na did not play his best golf last week at The Sentry Tournament Of Champions, but at this time there is no injury news associated with his choice to pull out of this week’s event.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Vince Covello Sometimes it Pays to Play it Safe
Sabbs is a golfer that I always seem to be higher on than the field. While I don’t expect him to be low owned this week, I do expect his ownership to be lower than it should given how strong of a play he is at this price point. After struggling with consistency for years, he has made 20 of his last 22 cuts on the PGA Tour. You’d be surprised how much better that cut percentage is than many of the top golfers in the world during that stretch. The only two cuts that he missed were at courses he had struggled on in the past. We don’t have to worry about that this week, as he’s made 8 of his last 10 cuts here including back-to-back top 35 finishes. The best part is that he’s in much better form now than he has been in a very long time. He grades out well in the hole yardage breakdown, he’s solid off the tee, he’s good with his irons, and he doesn’t bleed strokes on and around the greens. While I’m not sure he can win this week (I bet him anyway), I like his chances to outperform salary-based expectations.
The Post Man is Checking a Lot of Boxes this Week
The Post Man is back at it this week. I ultimately expect him to be one of the highest owned golfers of the week. While that’s not great, I can afford to eat some chalk with my chosen roster construction. He’s one of the best putters in this field (11th in strokes gained putting), especially on Bermuda greens. Most of his best finishes on tour have come on Bermuda courses and he’s had success here in the past. He’s played here twice and made both cuts. Last year, he finished in a tie for 20th. He might be in the best form of his entire career, making 10 of his last 11 cuts with a win and four more top 20 finishes during that stretch. He played well in last week’s Tournament of Champions, finishing in a tie for 11th where he gained the second most strokes putting. Yes, this is a volatile statistic week-to-week, but good putters are more likely to repeat good putting performances than bad putters. He makes a ton of birdies, he can catch fire with his irons, and he has one of the best short games in this field.
Nice Combination of Fit, Form, and Course History
It’s so strange… for years and years, Harman would rate out as one of the worst point-per-dollar plays in my PGA model. All of a sudden, he seems to pop every single week. I’ve made some adjustments to the model over the years, but the biggest difference for Harman has been his recent form and his improved ball striking. After being one of the worst off the tee and on approach, he’s in the top 20 in this field in both categories. He rates out as the second best fit for the hole yardages, which takes into account Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 scoring on the yardages of the holes that the golfers will play at each course. He’s also ranked inside the top 20 in birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, and strokes gained putting. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game right now and he has great course history to boot. Granted, he missed the cut here last year, but his form was a completely different story. Prior to the missed cut, he had four straight top 20 finishes here including a T4 in 2018. He offers a high ceiling with a high chance of making the cut. And again, I can eat the chalk here because I am taking a lower owned stud in Patrick Reed.
Let the Masses Fade this 'Sand Mover'
As you will soon see, I like a lot of the chalk in the mid-range this week. And as you know, I focus most of my attention on a single lineup that I enter into single-entry tournaments and small-field tournaments. I typically like to build a cash game lineup and then make a few pivots. If you have read this article in the past, then you know how much I love to fade the cheap chalk. I’m taking a little different route this week and will be looking for leverage at the very top. Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, and Webb Simpson are all going to be popular, while Reed is going to be low owned after nearly winning the Tournament of Champions last week. The reason is two-fold — people hate rooting for Reed and the industry is getting sharper. Even the casual DFS players are diving into strokes gained data these days. Everyone will see that Reed gained nine strokes putting last week and look to fade him at the Sony Open. When it comes to Reed, I care more about the overall form than his week-to-week statistics. He’s one of the streakiest golfers on tour and when he’s at his best, he can gain strokes in any facet of his game. Check out his finishes over his last eight events: T2, T3, T28, T10, T8, T17, T4, and T15. He has a great track record in Hawaii, he’s good in wind, and he has one of the best short games on the planet.
Looking for a ZJ Bounceback Spot
This is a fun one. Zach Johnson has had an abysmal 2 years on Tour, falling out of favor of Cash game players and as you can see here, being priced down with relatively inconsistent players. I think ZJ has a bit of a comeback this year and has already started on that path. His Sony Open history is phenomenal and I am counting on some improvement in his game coupled with the comfort of heading back to Waialae. In the last 5 years, ZJ has finished Top 15 3 of the 4 years, 2 of those being Top 10s. He missed the cut last year in the midst of his downturn, albeit by a single shot, and still gained strokes on Approach like he is known for. Sign me up in GPPs this week!
Taylor Set to Continue Solid Run
Transitioning from good course history to good (relatively) recent form, Taylor capped off a pretty good 2019 with a 2nd at the Mayakoba and 10th at the RSM Classic. His EAP data is fantastic with over 1/3 of all approach shots inside of 18 ft. and gaining Strokes on Approach 54% of the time. He is certainly a Cash candidate this week with upside.
Knox checks all the Boxes
When it comes to consistency in a value play, Knox checks a ton of boxes. To finish out the Fall Swing, Knox finished 28 – 11 – 33 – 20, ganing strokes on Approach in all 4 starts. He has turned is game around a lot the past few year so looking at his Sony Open results, you can see a trend in the right direction with 2 Top 11s the past 3 years. Knox is a great mix of safety and upside in this group of values.
A Cheap Play With Upside
The value plays start to get ugly in a hurry with this field, but Redman is a very intriguing cheap option. He’s punt level priced on every site other than Yahoo, and he’s even a respectable value over there. Redman struggled a bit at the start of the fall swing, but he steadied the ship toward the end with a 13th place finish in Houston and a 23rd place finish at the RSM Classic that could have been a top ten if not for a wayward final round. That wayward final round will contribute to lower ownership than Redman should have at this price tag. At some points during the fall swing, he was significantly more expensive than this. His iron play is elite compared to the other value options on the board, as he ranks 13th in ball striking so far this year. Give him a look as the final piece of your GPP lineup.
The Winter Season ATM Machine
If the calendar reads January, February, or March, it’s probably a good time to think about rostering Charles Howell. Howell is a cut-making machine at this time of year. This one is a nod to the course history fans out there. Howell has made the cut all EIGHTEEN times he has teed it up at this venue, and TEN of those have resulted in top ten finishes. That is incredible consistency and upside. I write him up for this event basically every year, and he delivers almost every time. On cue, he delivered another eighth place finish a year ago. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. Howell is an elite play on these Pacific Coast layouts, and this one is arguably his favorite.
A Top Option On The Board
Every single trend is positive with Simpson right now. The combination of safety and upside will likely lead me to starting many lineups with Simpson at the top end of the salary scale. Simpson is cheaper than Justin Thomas, and I like Simpson just as much as Thomas this week. Webb has made nine straight cuts at this event, with six of those resulting in top 20 finishes. In his limited appearances during the fall swing, Simpson placed 7th at the Shriners and 2nd at the RSM Classic. He also ranks second on Tour in scrambling for the 2019-2020 season to date. All the trends are positive, and Simpson is definitely an elite play in all DFS game formats.
Matt Kuchar continues to play well in Hawaii
Narratives often play a bigger role in our DFS process than most of us would like to admit. WIth some negative buzz around the idea that this was a week of vacation for The Kuchar family, the lack of interest in Matt Kuchar stood out as a strong discussion point prior to round one. Kuchar’s opening round of 68 represented his 16th round of 70 or better in his last 24 rounds at The Plantation Course. Regardless of narratives, Kuchar’s past results have shown that his game fits this venue. Heading into round two of this year’s TOC Kuchar stands in third place in DraftKings points for the week with average ownership of less than 10%. Not surprisingly, Kuchar had even lower ownership in the round one showdown slates. At less than 5% ownership, Kuchar’s round one DK score of 54.25 became a must if you wanted to take down a GPP. For those considering a round two fade of Kuchar in showdown slates, keep in mind that in seven career rounds at The Plantation course, Kuchar has a scoring average of 70 ( 3 under par).
As reported by: ResultsDB Fifteen minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
It’s finally time for the 2020 PGA Tour season. With just around fifteen minutes until lock, there is no major news to report. If you have not edited dummy lineups please remember to do so now. The weather could play a role this week, but with a limited field, there is not an edge to be gained by stacking a tee time wave. With strong winds expected over the next four days, you can give a slight bump to golfers who tend to play well in windy conditions. ResultDB will be up and running shortly after lock so please check back to see how your rosters stack up against the field. Good luck this week grinders!!!