DFS Alerts
Keith Mitchell stands out as a great source of value
It’s pretty amazing that in a sport with so much data measurement there is never really much talk about splits outside of the sharper player in DFS golf. The general golf public pays almost no attention to how a player performs on various putting surfaces. For a player like Keith Mitchell, it’s very important to pay attention to the type of putting surfaces. Early results on Mitchell show that he is much more comfortable on Bermuda greens. Mitchell won early this season at the Honda ( Bermuda greens), but since that time has struggled to find any consistent form. Now with a decreased price Mitchell in a no-cut event stands out as a great GPP value play for the week. Back on a putting surface that he typically prefers Mitchell has more than enough upside to crush his cheap salary for the week.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown
Marc Leishman looks to bounce back from a disappointing missed cut
An opening round of 78 left Marc Leishman in a precarious spot at last week’s Open Championship. After a second round of 72, Leishman packed his bags and headed to back across the pond to play in this week’s WGC event. While missing the cut at a Major Championship is never a great thing, Leishman could have a bit more in the tank than those who flew in on Monday. Priced-down in this strong field Leishman is a value play worth paying attention to in all formats. Currently ranked inside the top 15 in this years FedEx Cup race, Leishman has nine top 25 or better finishes this season. With more than enough talent to pay off his salary, Leishman in a no-cut event could end up being on the top point per dollar picks this week. Prior to his missed cut at The Open Championship Leishman had three top 35 or better finishes highlighted by a fifth-place showing at The Memorial.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Trending Ball Striking and Elite Course History
It’s been a while since Horschel has made my list of official picks, but here we are. Even though he missed the cut at the Open Championship, that was probably a bonus. He doesn’t have a great links track record to begin with and the missed cut allowed him to get back to the states a couple days earlier than most. He has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in six straight events stateside and has one of the best track records of any golfer in the field at TPC Southwind. He has four top 10 finishes here in his last five tries.
Always Seems to be in Contention at WGC Events
Casey was excellent from tee to green last week at the Open Championship, but he couldn’t get any putts to drop. By the time Sunday rolled around, he was ready to get out of Northern Ireland. He’s been one of the best ball strikers on tour over the last few years and he’s ranked ninth or better in this field in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach. He often gets knocked for not having enough win equity, but he has won the Valspar Championship in back-to-back years. He has a tremendous track record at WGC events, posting top 20 finishes in seven of his last eight events.
Consistency with Upside
Every time we have a star-studded event, Simpson feels underpriced. This includes the Masters, the Players, and all of the WGC events. He’s a lot like Matt Kuchar in that he makes a ton of cuts and posts a bunch of high finishes. He has seven straight top 30 finishes on tour and now heads to Memphis where he posted a T3 finish back in 2014. He’s accurate off the tee and great with his irons, which should help him stay out of trouble on a course that has seen the most balls hit in the water on tour (even more than TPC Sawgrass).
Good Bounce Back Spot after a Missed Cut
I was one of many to get burned by Matsuyama last week and after missing back-to-back cuts at the Open Championship, maybe it’s time to starting fading him on links courses. Outside of that one event, he’s been in tremendous form posting six straight top 25 finishes before last week. He’s gaining strokes in all facets of his game (even his putter) and starting lineups in this price range leads to a much more well-rounded roster. Two of his wins on tour have come at WGC events and there’s no reason to think he can’t compete on a ball striker’s course like TPC Southwind.
Phil Mickelson looks to rebound from a bad stretch of golf
Despite missing five of his last seven cuts, Phil Mickelson still has a great chance of making it to Tour Championship in a few weeks. Fueled by an early-season win Mickelson currently sits in the 32nd position in this year’s race. News broke last week that Mickelson currently went on a six-day fast prior to The Open Championship to restart his body in an order to get his game back. Despite his poor play over the last two months, Mickelson should find some refuge in being back at The TPC Southwind. In his last six starts at TPC Southwind, Mickelson has six top 12 or better finishes highlighted by three top 3 or better showings. Currently projected at less than 5% ownership, Mickelson’s great course history makes for a compelling case as a GPP flyer for the week. Despite his poor recent play a no-cut event is a perfect place to take a risk on someone like Mickelson.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Kevin Na is set to return from injury
Following a very impressive win at this year’s Charles Schwab Challenge Kevin Na has struggled to play well due to a neck injury. Na missed the John Deere Classic and Open Championship due to the injury, but he’ll return in Memphis at TPC Southwind to play in this week’s WGC event. Na posted a picture of his golf bag on a tee box at TPC Southwind with the caption send it on Instagram today. For now, it appears that Na is ready to play, but the fear of rostering an injured player in a no-cut event should keep his ownership levels down. For those who are risk-takers, Na could be an interesting target for the final WGC of the year. If healthy Na has proven he can play golf courses like TPC Southwind well and in a 63 man event it will be hard to get much in the way of very low ownership. Currently projected under 3% for the week Na has the making of a great tournament pivot.
As reported by: Kevin Na Instagram Shane Lowry not listed in the field
Current champion golfer of the year Shane Lowry is not listed in the field for this week’s WGC event. Lowry has a price for all major sites, but it appears he will not play this week. No official news has been released to announce Lowry not playing in this week’s event, but we should have confirmation later today when tee times are released. UPDATE. Shane Lowry has officially withdrawn from the event. Lowry will not be replaced and The WGC FedEx St. Jude’s will instead play with 63 golfers.
As reported by: PGA Tour Roll With Him On Bermuda Greens
I have not written up Mitchell quite some time, but this is absolutely the perfect time to buy back in. He doesn’t like playing on poa greens at all, which caused him to struggle on the West Coast. He doesn’t like playing on bentgrass that much, which caused him to struggle in the Midwest. He’s not a great fit on links, but he only missed the cut at The Open by one stroke. He always tends to pop more often on bermuda surfaces, and that’s what we have this week at TPC Southwind. Mitchell is now mega cheap on every DFS site, and he played well at the St. Jude last year with a solid 37th place finish (when it was a full field, 156 golfer event). If you are looking for a golfer with value in a no cut event, Mitchell brings that in droves this week. I think he’s a great long shot bet for a top 5 or top 20 finish, too, if you are into the sports gambling space.
Elite Point Per Dollar Play
Patrick Cantlay didn’t make a birdie on Sunday at The Open, but he didn’t exactly implode, either. He should be able to get a few more putts to go down moving forward, and he profiles as a nice fit for TPC Southwind. Cantlay leads the PGA Tour in par four scoring this season, and he also leads the Tour in bogey avoidance. He’s near the top in scrambling. Those are great traits to have on this course, and he can absolutely hoist the trophy on Sunday if he can make a few more putts than he did a week ago. Putting is naturally variant, and I hope that those late struggles help keep ownership low in this spot.
Top End Golfer With Winning Potential
This is a really interesting spot. On one hand, Dustin Johnson has been in fairly poor form (by his standards) so far this summer. On the other hand, this is a world class golfer who has top 25 finishes in his last four trips to TPC Southwind, outside of one year in which he withdrew early in the tournament. Obviously, that includes his victory a year ago. He has more course history at the venue than almost all of the other high-priced golfers in the field, and that does have some value. Most people consider DJ a pure bomber that profiles well on courses with extra par fives, but he actually ranks 13th on Tour in par four scoring this year. I’ll be overweight on the field with my GPP exposure, for sure.
Twenty minutes until roster lock for The Open Championship and no major news to report
Darren Clarke will hit the opening tee shot to the years final major in less than 20 minutes. It’s all quiet on the news front this morning and it appears the weather could be less of an issue than it looked as of yesterday. Winds and rain are probable today, but for the most part, the weather should be nothing less of a typical Open Championship. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Tony Finau looks to bounce back from a missed cut in a major
At this point in the season last year Tony Finau was very much the darling of DFS golf. With top ten or better finishes in 3 out of the 4 major championships, Finau set the bar very high for big events in the future. After a top-five finish at this year’s Masters Finau let his supporters down with a T64 at The PGA and a missed cut at The U.S. Open. Ranked inside the top 20 in both The Offical Golf Rankings and this year’s FedEx Cup standings Finau is still very much a player of talent in the world of golf. Currently projected at a low ownership number Finau is a talent worth taking an overweight stand on in big field GPP’s. In addition to having the talent needed to pay off his salary on finish position alone, Finau has historically been a golfer that can crush DraftKings scoring in light of a top-end showing.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays Weather update for The Open Championship
Kevin Roth’s weather report is up in the main forum for the year’s final major. As always we can expect the weather to be a factor in this golf tournament. Early week conditions have changed and golfers woke up to different wind direction and bit of rain on Wednesday. Golfers will face rain and windy conditions for the first two days of play. For now, it looks like Thursday will be the worse of the two days in terms of weather. For DFS purposes we like to try and nail down a tee time edge in terms of weather. With every golfer in the field teeing off the first tee it will be almost impossible to avoid the rain and or the wind over the first two days of golf. Roth gives a slight bump to guys that play either super early or very late on Thursday. Seaside links golf courses are always subject to weather, and often that weather can change very quickly. In terms of roster builds there is a ton of merit to stacking different tee time blocks( 1 to 3 hour windows) in MME, but for cash, the forecast is not significant enough to favor one part of the day over the other. As always in windy conditinos, you can give a slight bump to golfers who tend to perform well in the wind. I typically like to target players with either experience in the wind and or those golfers who are excellent ball strikers. I will keep an eye on the weather up until lock with updates provided as needed.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report