DFS Alerts
Ultimate Risk/Reward
If you want the true definition of a risk/reward GPP option this week, I present to you Mr. Daniel Berger. He has had a poor season and has missed the cut in each of his two previous trips to this event. This has Berger flying WAY under the radar this week, and I like the idea of taking players with motivation. Berger needs a top finish in order to get a FedEx Cup playoff spot, and he has the game to contend. After all, he missed the fall swing due to injury, or he would likely be comfortably within the top 125. He is riding a string of nine made cuts in his last ten starts, and the upside will likely return at some point. I’m willing to take some GPP shots on him given his very reasonable price tag these days.
Another Young Star on the Verge of a Win?
The new young golfers on the PGA Tour continue to make a name for themselves, as both Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa have already won a Tour event, with Morikawa winning last week’s Barracuda Championship. I actually like Hovland more this week, as he should be motivated to try to join the crew with a victory. It’s also not like Hovland has been playing poorly, either, as he has logged three straight top 20 finishes on his resume. He has closed well in each of those events, too, shooting 65 or better in the final round of each of them. He doesn’t have enough rounds to qualify statistically yet, but he’s solid throughout his bag and makes plenty of birdies. I like his chances of contending this week, and he’s one of my favorite GPP plays.
Top Play on the Board
I have tried and tried to find excuses not to play him in recent weeks. I’m done trying to do that. There is absolutely nothing other than blind hope that would keep him out of the top overall spot this week. The form is great, the course history is great, and this is a home game for him. Webb finished 2nd last week at the WGC event with a fantastic final round, and he has top 30 finishes in each of his last eight starts. He has seven top twelve finishes at this venue in his last nine trips, including a win (2011) and a runner-up (last year). The stats are solid across the board. There literally isn’t a weakness in his profile. Don’t over-think this one.
Vaughn Taylor continues to play well
Vaughn Taylor enters this week having made seven straight cuts including 4 top 20 or better finishes. With a price tag that has not quite caught up to his good play, Taylor stands out as one of the top values for the week. Typically a better putter on Bermuda greens, Taylor will look to improve his standings in this year’s FedEx Cup race. Looking to make his first appearance in a Tour Championship Taylor will need to play well over the next few weeks if wants to make a deep run into the playoffs. Taylor will be a chalk play in cash games this week, but with a price that has not caught up to his current form, you can safely plugin this tour veteran for the week.
As reported by: PGA DFS Core Plays
Past Wyndham Champion looks to build of great recent form
Patrick Reed is not regarded by many as a statistically great ball striker. Typically Reed relies on a hot putter to get the most out of weeks he happens to hit his irons decent. Heading into an event in which he is a past champion Reed has quietly gained strokes on the field in ball striking over his last three starts. A less than stellar putter has kept Reed from really challenging for a much-needed win. One of the lesser talked about items in terms of the many season-ending scenarios is the rush to make this year’s Presidents Cup Team. Currently ranked in the 17th position in the race to make the team, there is a strong sentiment that Reed will have to make the team on his own merit and can’t rely on being one of the captain’s picks. Reed has all of the motivation to play well this week and could end up being one of the top golfers in the last event of the season.
As reported by: PGA Expert Survey Some Hidden Gems from Last Week's WGC Event
It doesn’t matter if you listen to podcasts or read articles, everyone is laughing at the fact that Spieth is priced with the elite golfers in the field this week. I was ready to write him off as well, but decided to do a deeper dive into his numbers after seeing he led the field in birdies (22) at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He basically had four blowup holes that took him out of contention — two doubles and two triples. The big numbers were all thanks to ball striking, so his raw numbers for the tournament don’t really tell the whole story. I went through his scorecard and looked at his scoring on all of the par fours and fives where he hit the fairway with his drive and couldn’t believe the numbers — he was 19-under with 19 birdies and zero bogeys. As mentioned above, this is a course where everyone hits the fairways at a high clip. I honestly think Spieth can win this week and we currently have his ownership at sub-10%.
Time for a Big Finish from Ole' Bucket Hat Peter
Malnati feels under-priced and it looks like he’s going to be under-owned. That’s the best possible combination when it comes to DFS. I’ve basically been playing him every single week and he has yet to disappoint, so why stop now? He has made 13 of his last 14 cuts on tour and has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven events. He’s one of the best putters each and every season, especially on bermuda grass. Even when his iron play wasn’t great, he was still making the cut at this event each and every year. If he can continue gaining strokes with his irons, he could easily post a top 20 finish at a very reasonable price point across the industry.
Fairways? Check! Approach? Check! Putting? Check!
Taylor is going to be the chalk in this range, but that doesn’t mean that he’s a bad play. I like to say that I’m willing to overpay for a player that’s going to be low owned and I’m willing to play a chalky player that’s underpriced, but I’m not willing to target a golfer that is both over-priced and over-owned. The way I see it, Taylor falls into that second category. He’s number nine in my putting split for the week, third in proximity, and 10th in birdie or better percentage. He tends to shine on less than driver courses and he has two top six finishes in his last three events. The only negative that I can find is his course history — he has played here six times and has never finished better than T45.
A Rare Week to Root for a Golfer I Love to Hate
If I had two picks to win this week I would go with Reed and his old pal Spieth. The two aren’t as close as they used to be back in the glory days of the Ryder Cup, but they have very similar games. Their biggest weakness is off the tee, they are streaky with their irons, and they have immaculate short games. Reed won this event back in 2013 and has posted two top 25s in two appearances since. It’s been a down year overall, but he is certainly trending in the right direction. In his last three events, he has gained 6.5, 7.1, and 5.4 strokes on the field with his ball striking. He rarely pops in my model, but rates out as a tremendous value even at his hefty price point. If you want a non-statistical narrative, he would love to finish the season on a high note and become a captain’s pick for the Presidents Cup.
It's Tough to Find an Argument Against this Golfer
We are going to start with the most obvious play of the week in Mr. Simpson. He loves this event so much that he named his daughter Wyndham. He has made each of his last nine cuts here, posting a win and five more top 10 finishes. He has gained at least two strokes on approach in six of his last seven events and has become one of the best putters on tour. He has only missed one cut in the last year and hasn’t finished outside of the top 30 since March. It’s hard to find a reason not to play Simpson other than the high ownership and as I often mention in my articles and videos, I’m more concerned with the aggregate ownership of my lineup than I am with ownership of an individual golfer. Simpson is the top play of the slate and it’s not particularly close.
Former FedEx Cup Champion in need of a good week
Bill Haas enters the last event of the 2019 regular season in need of a good result if he wants to avoid missing the playoffs for the second straight year. The combination of injury and personal tragedy has this one time FedEx Cup Champion fighting hard to regain his status in the world of golf. Prior to last season, Haas had been a regular contender to make it to East Lake for The Tour Championship. In addition to winning the 2011 FedEx Cup race, Haas played well enough to qualify for East Lake three times in the last nine years. It does not take much to fall from the ranks of The PGA Tour and Haas is slowly starting to show signs of life ahead of this week’s Wyndham Championship. With four straight made cuts including a pair of top 11 or better showings, Haas should have plenty of confidence as he prepares to play at a course that favors his game. Haas has gained almost 27 shots tee to green in his last five starts at Sedgefield Country Club including a pair of top-six or better finishes. Currently projected at a very low ownership number, Haas is the type of value play that could make a difference this week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Ten minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
There is no major news to report ahead of the final WGC event of the season. Looks like we will have perfect weather for golf this in Memphis. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Gary Woodland still on baby watch
Gary Woodland had plenty on his mind at last week’s Open Championship. With his wife Gabby expecting twins, Woodland was a long way from home if she went into labor earlier than expected. Woodland is in the field for the last WGC of the season and is only an hour from being with Gabby and his family if she happens to go into labor at some point this week. If the baby comes during the tournament Woodland will take an early exit from The WGC St Jude’s Classic to be with his family. Current projected ownership reflects this concern as there is a chance that Woodland leaves the event early. Woodland at a discount has merit in GPP builds for the week, but keep in mind there is a chance he will not play all four rounds.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Brooks Koepka has plenty to play for this week
So by now, everyone has heard how little Brooks Koepka prepares for non-major championship golf. In his very candid pre-tournament interviews, the current FedEx Cup points leader has been very adamant that he really only prepares and practices hard for the bigger events. To many in the industry, this week can be seen as one of those not so big weeks. Koepka, on the other hand, understands the importance of the week. With only a small lead on the players just behind him in the FedEx Cup race, Koepka knows he needs a win this week to set himself up for a strong playoff run. In his pre-tournament interview Koepka admitted that he would consider playing next weeks Wyndham Championship if he needed to. In his normal, very confident approach Koepka stated that if he does what he needs to do this week ( win) then he could possibly skip next week’s event. Koepka understands the importance of this week and in a 63 man field he remains an elite top-end spend despite the perception that he may not care about this non-major week.
As reported by: The Golf Channel Tommy Fleetwood in a great spot to contend for his first PGA Tour win
There is very much a popular belief that playing near the lead in last week’s Open Championship will have a negative effect on Tommy Fleetwood’s chance to win this week’s WGC St. Jude FedEx Championship. With many concerned of a letdown after playing on such a big stage, Fleetwood is currently trending towards a low ownership number for the week. While fatigue could play a role this week it’s very important to take into account that 55 of the 63 players in this week’s field played in last week’s Open Championship. With 32 of the 55 golfers from last week’s Open having made the cut, there is not really much of an edge to be had in trying to guess how much stress is gained or lost by playing near the lead on the weekend. Fleetwood will still have plenty of motivation to win this week, and he obviously comes into the event in great form. It’s hard to gain much of an edge in these small field events, but Fleetwood at low ownership looks like a great spot to differentiate your top-end spend for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership