DFS Alerts
Bounce Back Time
Hoffman was one of the highest owned golfers at the Travelers last week and he missed the cut despite gaining four strokes ball striking in two rounds. That will happen when you lose six strokes to the field on and around the greens. I will be going right back to the well this week. His price has come down and he is playing in a much weaker field. When Hoffman is playing well, he’s a good ball striker and a streaky putter. If he can continue his ball striking and turn the putting around, he should easily outperform his salary-based expectations.
Hate to Say that he's Due, but this Golfer is Ready for Another Win
The only reason that I won’t hit the lock button on DJ is if I can’t get a few teams with he and Matsuyama that I feel good about. I don’t love playing Rickie Fowler on poa and his form is bad, Gary Woodland is coming off of his first major win, and Chez Reavie is coming off of his first win in 11 years. Basically, DJ and Hideki are the only two golfers that I have any interest in. Matsuyama has gained strokes on approach in 12 straight tournaments, highlighted by 5.9 at the U.S. Open his last time out. Poa is his preferred putting surface and he’s surprisingly good around the greens.
You Have to Pay a Premium for Everyone in the Field Except DJ
DJ is far and away my favorite play of the week. He ranks first in this field in the five key statistics that are listed above — strokes gained total, off the tee, approach, birdie or better percentage, and bogey avoidance. He also rates out number one in the hard yardage breakdown and he’s one of the best putters in the field on poa annua greens. This is golf and anything can happen, but he’s head and shoulders above everyone else from a projection standpoint. He’s typically in this same price range for the majors, so we should have a ton of interest in this weak field. I rarely hit the lock button on a golfer, but am considering it with DJ this week.
Field update for The Rocket Mortgage Classic
With less than 48 hours until the first tee shot of The Rocket Mortgage, there has already been some player movement to report for the week. Martin Piller and Doc Redman join Wes Homan and Austen Truslow as the four Monday qualifiers. Piller has the most experience of the group and can always be considered as a GPP option. Doc Redman is a young player worth keeping an eye on moving forward and will need to play well in the limited chances earned via exemptions and Monday qualifiers. Two more spots in the field have opened up due to the withdrawal of Julian Etulain and Jim Knous earlier today. Talor Gooch and Dominic Bozzeli will take their spots in the field. All new players to the field will have projections up later today.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Julian Etulain, Martin Piller, Doc Redman, Wes Homan, Austen Truslow, Talor Gooch, Dominic Bozzelli
Vaughn continues upward trend this week
Probably less under-the-radar this week than last, but Vaughn has looked really good and he is certainly viable here at Detroit Golf Club. He has made 5 straight cuts and with a strong showing last week, finishing 4th, he definitely caught my attention at his price. He is super accurate off the tee, with some numbers that make you scratch your head how he can’t make every cut every week! To put a cherry on top, he was second in the field for SG:APP last week behind only Chez. He knocked 26% of his shots inside 12 feet and consequently gained over 0.25 SG:APP on 33% of his approach shots. These numbers certainly do not seem sustainable for a long time, but for back to back weeks? Yes, I think it is certainly doable for him!
Looking to Lee on this classic Donald Ross design
A lesser known PGA DFS rule is to play Danny Lee on Donald Ross designs and those courses similar. Of course, Detroit Golf Club is as traditional a design for Donald Ross as there may be anywhere and looking at Colonial as a comp course, I can see this trend continuing. Looking at his recent form doesn’t always add value as he is a very course-specific player, but when I took a look at his performances at Colonial and how he played the event, I was pleasantly surprised. Including this year, he has finished 10 – 22 – 6 – 14 – 48. Really consistent for a course with similar design and architecture. It never feels good rostering Danny Lee, but this is a great opportunity on a brand new course
Watney Still Priced as a Value for Rocket Mortgage Classic
Nick Watney is certainly a little under-priced this week. He has gained strokes OTT in 6 straight events, gaining Strokes on Approach in 5 of those 6 events, and with his traditional stats telling an even better story with an average of 69% GIR over his last 20 rounds, I will gladly take some shares of Watney this week. Also just to note, his odds to win are similar to the others priced in the 8k range which is another way to determine a mispriced player.
Straka Irons Stay Hot
Sepp continues to get my attention, similar to the Homa MC last week, if you dig a bit deeper Sepp maintained his strong GIR and SG:APP numbers, ranking 5th in the field, but lost nearly 6 strokes putting. I just can’t pass on him this week. His ball-striking has been so solid for much of the summer and on this Donald Ross design where approach shots really are critical, and putting a little less differentiating, I think Sepp can get into contention in Round 1 and stay there for the remainder of the week.
Large-field GPP Value Option
Stephan is probably best used in deeper field tournaments but certainly worth noting if it turns out Hank or another value becomes very chalky in this range. Stephan has split time between the Web.com Tour (now Korn Ferry Tour) and the PGA Tour this year. He has had a strong run on the PGA Tour the past 3 events, finishing 17 – 14 – 30. Last week he was near the top of the field in Driving Accuracy (71%) which is always a good sign to see where a players confidence level is.
Hank Continues Strong Rookie Campaign
Hank has quietly amassed 10 made cuts out of his 13 events this year, and his performances the last month or so has been really impressive for a value guy. When it comes to values, many times the results do not provide obvious reasons to play someone, so looking strictly at my Key stats such as SG:APP and wGIR each week is many times my primary factor. Hank has been meeting those standards each of his past 3 events. His proximities and GIR took a little dip last week, “only” hitting 65% of his greens and 68% of his fairways, but as you can see these are still plenty strong for me to use him as a value here at Detroit Golf Club.
Going Back to Homa after MC
Max continues to impress me with his Ball-striking, even with a poor “result” last week at the Travelers Championship. Max was third last week on both wProx and SG:APP per Round, and ranked first in Proximity inside 12’. This was his first event back since Memorial, so some rust was expected but his T27 at Colonial this year also adds to his appeal. Sign me up for a recent Tour winner who still is hitting it just as well, just needs to get the putter warmed back up.
Perfect Course for Accurate Stanley
I am not giving up on Stanley yet. He is still trending up and his ownership has stayed low and now this week we can use him as another value piece, with seemingly low ownership once again. He has gained strokes on Approach and OTT in 4 of his last 5 events, and with these fairways being tree lined, I think he finds himself at a bigger advantage if he can continue hitting his driver well. Kyle is not a long hitter by any means, which is actually not a knock on him this week at Detroit Golf Club.
More Malnati Magic
I missed Peter Malnati last week after finding him as a sneaky play back at the Memorial. He finished T30 last week which may not raise eyebrows for most, but his irons continue to be really strong. His longer term form shows his inconsistencies come from the Driver, but of late he seems to be managing those tee shots well and putting himself into position to hit his irons close. His irons werent quite as good as Hoffman last week, gaining strokes on 56% of his approach shots, but at this price these numbers are well above the range average.
Underlying Stats Remain Solid after MC
Charley burned a lot of people (including myself) last week at the Travelers but that will not keep me from playing him again this week. With a terrible 2 days on the greens, Charley bounced back nicely on Friday to shoot -3 and miss the cut by only a couple shots. Looking deeper, he gained strokes on 67% of his approaches knocking 40% of his shots inside of 18 ft. Charley has also had a pretty strong run at Colonial over the years, with a T13 finish this year.
Solid Value
Lebioda was one of the more heralded Web.Com Tour graduates from last year, and he’s acquainted himself quite nicely with life on the PGA Tour with 11 cuts made in 16 starts, including six of his last seven. The next step is moving toward some better finishes, and this weaker field event provides the perfect chance for him to do that. Lebioda grades out surprisingly nicely in the statistical department, ranking inside the top 50 on Tour in everything I am looking at this weekend. Given his dirt cheap price tag, he makes for a great value play to use at the bottom portion of your lineups.
