DFS Alerts
Course conditions ahead of the U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay made headlines last week when he posted a video on Instagram of pre-tournament course conditions at Pebble Beach. Cantlay dropped a ball just a few yards off the ninth green and was unable to find the ball in the tall grass. One of the biggest criticisms of the USGA of late has been that harsh course conditions are just too much over the edge. In a pre-tournament press conference, Mike Davis and John Bodenhamer of the USGA spoke to how the committee has listened to the players and tried to incorporate suggestions into this year’s course setup. The addition of former PGA Tour player Jason Gore to the USGA team appears to have opened up a better channel of communication between the USGA and players. With what appears to be great weather for all four days of golf we should get a real feel pretty fast on how much The USGA took to heart in terms of criticism. By all accounts, the rough at Pebble Beach is very tall and can almost be considered a half a shot penalty. Accuracy and distance control are variables worth paying attention to as you build final rosters for the week.
As reported by: Golf Channel
Phil Mickelson in search of the career Grand Slam
Not much has been made of Phil Mickelson’s chance to win the elusive career Grand Slam. To be fair Mickelson has been in the spot a few times before, but has never been able to seal the deal. With six-second place finishes in the U.S. Open, Mickelson knows what it takes to have a chance to win this championship. Mickelson turns 49 on Sunday and will look to finally overcome the one major that has famously escaped his grasp. Playing on a course that he won on earlier this year there is very little doubt that Mickelson can compete at this venue. The biggest question in regards to his chance for success is whether or not Mickelson can avoid the big mistakes that have plagued him in the past. Currently trending towards a low ownership number, Mickelson could be the difference maker in a very strong 8k price range for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Jason Day makes a caddie switch ahead of U.S. Open
Unhappy with his play to this point in the season Jason Day has decided to make a caddie switch this week. Struggling to find the form that saw him win five times including a PGA Championship, Day has chosen to add a high profile caddie to his team. With experience carrying the bag of former world’s number one player Tiger Woods, Stevie Williams has many of the intangibles that many players in the world of golf respect. Searching for someone he can learn from, Day is looking to do whatever necessary to regain the form that saw him as the number one player in the world. Williams was on the bag for 15 of Tiger’s 17 majors including the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.
As reported by: Golf Digest Jim Furyk stands out as a great source of value
Finally, healthy Jim Furyk is starting to play the golf we have come to expect of a past major champion. With a game suited for U.S. Open-style golf, Furyk is the type of player who always stands out as a great option for this major. Even though this tournament is not played on the same venue year after year, The USGA has a reputation for setting up golf courses in the same pattern. Accuracy and smart golf are always in play at the U.S. Open and with what is a less than driver course in Pebble Beach we could see a player like Furyk thrive in a typical USGA setup. Furyk has five straight made cuts at this event including 3 top 25 or better finishes. Combine his USGA course fit with his very good recent form, and Furyk stands out as a great value in all formats this week.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Tony Finau flying under the radar
At this point last season, Tony Finau was somewhat of a darling in the world of DFS golf. Currently ranked inside the top 20 in The FedEx Cup race and still playing great golf, Finau has done little to fall out of favor in terms of his performance. Finau missed only his second cut of the year in his last start at The Memorial, but his play this season still been very impressive. Finau has 8 top 25 starts in 14 made cuts including a pair of runner up finishes. Currently trending as a low owned player in his price range, Finau has an amazing upside as a potential GPP pivot. With 4 top ten or better showings in the last six majors, Finau is no stranger to playing well in pressure-filled events.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Former U.S. Open champ arrives at Pebble Beach in great form
Webb Simpson heads into the year’s third major with plenty of positive momentum to build on. In his last five tournaments, Simpson has not finished outside the top 30 including a runner up finish at last week’s Canadian Open. Playing well in big events is a must this week, and Simpson has a strong record in major championships. Over his last nine starts in majors, Simpson has not finished outside the top 40 including 5 top 25 or better finishes. His play alone makes Simpson a great target for the week, but when you factor in the discount in price, it’s easy to see why this former U.S. Open winner stands out as the number one play in our projection model for The U.S. Open.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Favorite Course Narrative
The final play of the week is RCB. If you throw out his results on the Euro Tour (which can be a bit random at times), he has made 23 of his last 24 cuts on the PGA Tour. Can you believe that type of consistency? His statistics don’t look great on paper and if you asked a bunch of random DFS players about his consistency, nobody would guess that he’s made 23 of his last 24 cuts. Before the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this season, he posted a video of himself putting in the rain at Pebble Beach with a caption that read, “When it’s been raining a “little bit” but you’re at your favorite course and have a putt for birdie at the last!” Favorite course narrative, consistency that nobody realizes, and low ownership. Sign me up!
Blindly Play this Golfer at All Majors
Finau is the ultimate wildcard play of the week. If I would have told you at the start of the season that Finau would be $8,400 at the U.S. Open, you probably would have predicted his ownership to be around 30%. We have the chance to play a discounted Finau at a major at sub-10% ownership. Look, I know his form hasn’t been great, but he’s a lot like Brooks Koepka in that he always shows up in the majors. Here are his last finishes: T64 (PGA Championship), T5 (the Masters), T42 (PGA Championship), T9 (Open Championship), T5 (U.S. Open), and T10 (the Masters). I know this isn’t a driver-heavy course, but I will gladly take an overweight stance on Finau, especially on the West Coast.
A 🐅 and a 🐐 at the Same Time
I was off of Tiger at the PGA Championship, which was the first event that I faded him completely since he made his comeback at the Hero Challenge two Decembers ago. I didn’t like the long layoff after his win at the Masters and I didn’t like that he missed his practice rounds. I was back on him at Memorial and he didn’t disappoint. He gained over five strokes on his approaches and he finished inside the top 10 after a slow start. Let’s not forget that back in 2000, he lapped the field here at the U.S. Open and won by double digits. If you have everyone play from the same spot in the fairway, I will take Tiger against any other golfer in the world. Basically, I love him on short to medium length tracks where par is a good score. I will have plenty of exposure to Tiger this week and prefer him straight up over Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka.
Former U.S. Open Winner with Good Form
Glover has seen a slight dip in his ball striking this season, but we can live with that given the improvements in his short game. He’s one of the best in the field around the greens and he’s shockingly gained strokes putting in seven of his last 10 events. He has played 16 events this season (including the Fall swing) and he has 11 top 17 finishes. If he comes anywhere close to that this week, he will easily pay off his cheap price point. The best part is that we have him projected at less than 10% ownership. He’s won a U.S. Open before, he’s been in solid form, and he has a T11 and a T7 in his last two appearances at Pebble Beach.
Perfect Mold for Pebble Beach
Furyk has been a regular feature of my article and he has rarely let us down. When you think of the type of golfer that should perform well at Pebble Beach, Furyk fits the mold perfectly. He hits fairways at a high clip, he’s one of the best iron players in the world (ninth in strokes gained approach in this field), he avoid bogeys, he’s a good scrambler, and he has historically putted well on poa greens. He’s been in solid form all season and like Webb, is always live at non-driver courses. He nearly won the PLAYERS earlier this season. This sounds like I’m exaggerating, but it’s true — I would pay $1,000 more for Furyk on each of the DFS sites this week.
This Golfer has Gained 35 Strokes on Approaches in his Last Six Events
Stenson could win this week or he could miss the cut by five strokes. We think of him as a consistent golfer, but outside of his irons, his game has been incredibly volatile. You never know what to expect off the tee, around the greens, and on the greens. The good news is that he should be able to club down off the tee, which should help him hit more fairways. If his short game shows up, there is no reason why he can’t be in contention on Sunday. He’s ranked first in this field in strokes gained approach. Just to give a little background on his recent iron play, here are his approach numbers over his last six events: +7.3, +6.1, +4.4, +7.4, +4.4, and +5.7. It’s hard to gain that many strokes total on the field, let alone with just approach shots.
Can't Find a Knock on this Mid-Range Target
Simpson might end up being the highest owned golfer of the week. He’s coming off of a T2 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, which was a similar track to Pebble Beach. This week’s scoring conditions won’t be nearly as good, but it’s a similar type of golf — keep it in the fairway, be accurate with your irons, and don’t bleed strokes around the green. Simpson is live at all non-driver courses and judging by player interviews this week, it sounds like most golfers will only hit between three and five drivers per round. Simpson rates out number one in my hole yardage breakdown and he’s one of the best putters in the field. The price is cheap enough and his game is consistent enough that this is the type of chalk I like to play.
Happy Learned How to Putt... Uh Oh
Everything is lining up for Scott and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win this week. I have him as an outright bet and will be loading up on him in DFS. In his last event on tour (the Memorial), he gained 12 strokes on his approaches and finished second behind Patrick Cantlay. I saw a statistic that said with Scott’s performance, he would have won that tournament 86% of the time. The 12 strokes on approaches is impressive, but even more-so is the fact that he has gained strokes putting in eight straight events. He doesn’t have a great track record at Pebble Beach, but this course will play much different for the U.S. Open than it will for the AT&T Pebble Beach.
Gaining Strokes with Approaches and Around the Greens
Matsuyama might not have what it takes to win this week, but I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday. He has gained strokes on approaches and around the greens in each of his last 10 events. That’s incredibly difficult to do, especially since he mostly plays in strong field events. He’s ranked in the top 10 in this field in strokes gained total, strokes gained approach, proximity from the key ranges, and the hole yardage breakdown statistic that I created. He’s also a significantly better putter on poa grass than he is on bermuda and bentgrass. The only knock that I can find with Hideki this week is that he’s never played a competitive round at Pebble Beach.