DFS Alerts
Top Overall Play
Though he didn’t contend for a major championship at the U.S. Open, Cantlay did rebound for a top 25 finish after making the cut on the number, as he shot a pair of under par rounds over the two weekend rounds. His all around game is a great fit for TPC River Highlands, as he finished 15th here a year ago in his first start at the venue in several years. He ranks 16th on Tour in strokes gained on approach and is at the top of the field in a lot of statistical categories. He also happens to lead the PGA Tour in par four scoring this year. I would be surprised if he isn’t in contention this week, and I don’t have to worry about his motivation quite as much as a golfer like Koepka, who always seems to turn it up a notch for majors and not for other events.
Another Good Finish at US Open
Sepp continues to pump out big performances and last week was no disappointment with a 28th place finish at the US Open. His results this year have been largely dependant on his irons, as he shows to be one of the best drivers on Tour. Just looking through his stats, it is hard to see a big red flag. His iron game was not “elite” last week but still managed to hit 42% of his approaches inside 24 ft. For a value guy with the consistency he has shown the past month, sign me up.
Niemann back on a Sub-7000 track
We are back on the Niemann train. Yes, after a terrible start to the season he has finally crossed my model’s threshold where it lets me play him again. With 3 straight made cuts, and his game back in order from what we saw last summer, Niemann should have another good week. He has gained strokes Ball Striking for each of those 3 events, improving to +4.4 SG:BS at the Canadian Open. He has never played this event, but stats align with what is needed here.
Showing Signs of Continued Success
The next few guys we don’t have the luxury of last week’s stats, but when it comes to value pieces that is generally pretty common. Tringale was a player I liked a ton at the Canadian Open 2 weeks ago and he did not disappoint to the tune of an 11th place finish. Looking through his recent numbers, they have been relatively stable but the real kicker for me was his wProx numbers at the Canadian Open. He was 2nd in the field for SG:APP hitting ⅓ of his approach shots inside 18’. Obviously we can’t expect someone to exactly match their performance from a few weeks ago, but with those numbers you can tell his game is in a good place.
Stanley Form Under the Radar
Kyle Stanley may turn out to be my favorite Salary Saver this week due to his immediate-recent form. As you probably know, I really like building multiple time-weighted models and comparing trends or even short bursts of form. Luckily, we do get full rounds so even when we discuss short term form not being a big enough sample size, in just one event ~150 to 175 golf shots is enough for me to see if someone is “faking” it or starting to see some lasting improvements. Stanley sticks out as that possible candidate this week. He has gained SG:APP in 5 of his last 6 events, and when looking at last week’s US Open results, I think he quietly played really well tee-to-green. He is historically a bad putter on all surfaces, so the Poa to Bent isn’t really a bump, but his 77% DA and 61% GIR is in line, if not better than several players who finished inside the Top 10. He hit 45% of his approaches inside 24’ which was 7th in the field last week. Two T20s in the past 4 years here at TPC River Highlands is also worth mentioning.
Underpriced PGA Tour Winner
Max is back! We haven’t seen Max in a few weeks as well since he also missed qualifying for the US Open. Nonetheless he is coming in with some of the best form for this price range and with the added confidence of a win a month ago, these are generally good opportunities to keep the pedal down. Trying to attack players with strong recent iron stats, Max has gained SG:APP in 4 straight events, averaging ~63% GIR during that timespan. In his last event, the Memorial, he was Top 10 in SG:APP hitting 20% of his approach shots inside of 12 ft.
GPP Value Leverage
Munoz made us a lot of money back at the Canadian Open and with a one week rest (did not qualify for the US Open), I am ready to hop back on at these prices. Sebastian’s finishes the past month or so read as: 38 – 10 – 7 – 11 with his GIR% number over 68% in every single event. He has certainly not shown a level of consistency that I would be willing to go heavy on him every week, but for the savings and recent form we have seen, he certainly stands out.
Target the Value Ball Strikers
Russell Knox may come in slightly under the radar but another guy who has fit the mold for this course over the years, in fact he won it back in 2016. His results outside of that Win have been a bit perplexing but let’s take a peek at what he is bringing into the week this year. Since the Florida Swing (February), Knox has lost SG:APP in an event only once, with over half of his tournaments gaining more than 4 SG:APP. When looking at Traditional Stats, something I like using quite a bit, he is hitting fairways at nearly 75% and GIR number at 67%. If ball striking consistency is what you need, Knox fits the bill.
Give Me More Morikawa
The third young stud we will be looking to target this week for salary savings is Collin Morikawa. I originally was hesitant to take the “#1 Amateur” back at the RBC Canadian Open, but after seeing his stats I was really impressed…so impressed, in fact, that I wrote him up last week for the US Open where he delivered a strong T35 finish. US Open setups are generally much different than Tour setups but again I am really impressed with his consistency in my Key Stats this week. He is not the longest in terms of Driving Distance, but with TPC River Highlands measuring just 6,841 yards, the accuracy and iron play is what we need…and Morikawa is offering both.
Young Stars Provide Value
I’m not one to jump on the hype train too soon, but the Travelers is known for extending sponsor invites to up-and-coming Stars, and this year is no exception. Being excited to watch them play and actually using them in DFS are not always the same, but I am going to certainly be using these kids this week. The first one is Matt Wolff and, although I did second guess his course fit here, his profile is really similar to about 60% of the leaderboard from last year. In case you don’t know who Matthew Wolff is, he has won 6 times in college this year, culminating with the NCAA Stroke Play Championship just 3 weeks ago. He has one lone PGA Tour appearance back at the WMPO, where he did make the cut to finish 50th. He is certainly hyped up but for good reason and with his former teammate Hovland (T12 US Open) priced $600 more this week, I will gladly take the savings with Wolff.
Not All Chalk is Bad Chalk
I expect Grillo to be the highest owned golfer of the week. I’m not great at predicting ownership, but he’s hard to pass up at a price of only $7,900. He’s been in stellar form recently, making seven straight cuts with three top 30 finishes during that stretch. I like to play Grillo on ball striker’s courses that have bentgrass greens. TPC River Highlands is a perfect fit for Grillo, so it’s no surprise that he’s played so well here in the past. He’s made both of his cuts, highlighted by a T19 finish last season.
Well Rested Ball Striker
We haven’t seen Kokrak since the Memorial where he made the cut, but finished outside the top 50. He withdrew from the Charles Schwab Challenge and didn’t end up qualifying for the U.S. Open. He’s one of the most rested golfers in the field and he’s been in amazing form all year. It’s been nearly a full year since he has missed a cut on tour and in 13 events this calendar year, he has eight top 20 finishes. He nearly won the Valspar Championship, which is a nice comp course for TPC River Highlands. Even though he’s long off the tee, he seems to play his best golf on some of these shorter tracks.
Nearly Won Here Last Season
Casey nearly won here last season. He had a big lead heading into the final round, but saw Bubba Watson pass him on Sunday. He didn’t play his best, but he did catch some bad breaks, including being stuck behind the one tree that’s in the middle of the fairway on this course. I always love Casey on ball striking courses like this one. He’s ranked eighth or better in the field in strokes gained total, off the tee, and on approach. He makes a lot of birdies and limits mistakes. He’s a perfect 4-for-4 at TPC River Highlands with no finish worse than T17. He’s going to be popular, but you have to play some chalk to be successful in PGA DFS. The trick is separating the good chalk from the bad chalk.
Pick to Win the Travelers Championship
There are a few golfers that never seem to pop in my PGA model because statistics don’t really tell the whole story. Louis Oosthuizen, Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day all come to mind. The fact that Day rates out well in my model this week is very eye-opening. He’s ranked third in this field in strokes gained total and he’s one of the best off the tee. His approach game isn’t great as a whole, but he’s much better with his wedges than he is with his long irons. He might be the best golfer on the planet when you talk about his play on and around the greens, so if he can have a good week with his wedges, he could easily walk away with a win. I expect Justin Thomas to be very popular in this price range, so I’ll take the ownership discount and play Day, who I like better anyway.
Twenty Minutes to U.S. Open roster lock, no news to report
Twenty minutes until roster lock and there is no major news to report. Eddie Pepperell is the only withdrawal of the week, so if for some reason he is still in your builds please remove him. Good luck this week. ResultsDB will be up and running within 15 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your U.S. Open lineups stack up against the field.
Other tagged players: Eddie Pepperell