DFS Alerts
Weather update for The Byron Nelson
In addition to the rain that moved through the DFW area much of the day on Wednesday, it appears weather could have an impact on this year’s Byron Nelson. Kevin Roth has the weather report up in the main forum and for now, it looks like you can potentially gain an edge through tee time stacking. With winds gaining speed later in the day on Thursday it appears that the early/ late tee time draw could have an advantage this week. According to Roth, we can expect afternoon winds to increase some 10 mph sometime after 12. Friday morning could also stronger winds than in the afternoon setting up what looks to be a strong advantage in the tee time draw.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Weather Report
Byron Nelson Pro-Am cancelled due to weather
Updating a post from earlier, the Byron Nelson Pro-Am has been canceled due to the heavy amount of rain that continues to move through the North Texas area. Players will have one less day to prepare for the event as the course is now closed for the day. Heavy rains have softened the course so we can expect to see less roll and fewer bounces during the first two rounds.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter Thomas Pieters set to make his 2019 PGA Tour debut
Just a few years ago Thomas Pieters appeared on to be on a collision course with greatness. With three European wins and a successful Ryder Cup appearance under his belt, Pieters became a player of note in terms of up and coming talent. Still playing part-time between the European and PGA Tour’s Pieters posted a couple of strong finishes on the PGA Tour highlighted by a 4th place finish at the 2017 Masters and a 6th place finish at last year’s PGA Championship. Outside of those strong finishes, Pieters has been plagued by some inconsistent golf which has, in turn, has made it much harder to gain access into events due to a decrease in his world ranking. Exempt into next week’s PGA Championship, Pieters has gained access to this week’s Byron Nelson via a sponsors invitation. When prices originally came out I had hoped to see this forgotten European player priced down a bit more than his actual price but as the week progresses, and the roster building process begins to take shape you can begin to make a case for Pieters as a strong mid-range option for the week. Although Pieters has a middle of the pack Pt/$/K projection our experts still have him ranked as one of the better mid-range values for the week. Still considered by many to be a talent worth betting on in the long run, Pieters has both the talent and experience to be a strong option in what is an overall weak field.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Rain has delayed the Byron Nelson Pro-Am
Heavy rains have moved through the DFW area this morning causing a delay to the start of the Wednesday Pro-Am. With already a ton of rain recorded in the last 30 days, the one to three inches of rain this morning will make the course play a bit longer over the next few days. Rain is also forecasted again on Saturday. For DFS purposes you could look to give a slight bump to longer hitters this week as the fairways will be soft and the ball should not roll much this week. The Pro-Am will try to start at 12:30 and then again at 3:30. I live in the North Dallas area and at the time of this post, it’s still raining pretty hard. It would not surprise me if the Pro-Am gets canceled, or that only one wave gets to play.
As reported by: PGA TOUR Twitter Steady Striker with a Price Dip
The San Antonio resident has slowed his pace recently but there is still plenty of pop in the bat. Ancer did just fine in his course debut last year (T42) but it was just one bad round that prevented him from collecting a top 25. Driving stats tend to lead to more cuts made, Ancer ranks 6th in this field in total strokes gained off-the-tee over the last 3 months. That has been the staple of his game since his surge up the world rankings begain in 2018. A little Texas home cooking should help him bounce back into contention and I don’t think his ownership will be all that high. A great sub-10% option with top-10 upside this week.
Home Cooking for Young Texan
The 22-year-old is scorching right now. He’s racked up four straight top 10s on the Web.com Tour and also has a top 20 on the PGA TOUR during that stretch. He was a 3-time All-American during his time at the University of Texas and that talent is beginning to blossom on the pro ranks. Adding fuel to the form fire, Scheffler is a Dallas native so this is a home game for the youngster. He’s gained 4.4 or more strokes on approach in three of his six career ShotLink starts on the PGA TOUR. That is elite ball-striking.
Narratives with the Game to Back them Up
Frittelli has all of the narratives going his way this week. Australians and South Africans tend to play well in Texas given the windy conditions. With no trees on the course, golfers will have to play in breezy conditions. Frittelli also went to the University of Texas, so he is familiar with the area and with Texas golf in general. And finally, he’s a bomber that is ranked ninth in this field in strokes gained off the tee. He’s made four straight cuts on tour, posting two top 25 finishes during that stretch.
As Phil Would say, this Kid Hits "Bombs"
Mullinax is one of the longest drivers of the ball on tour, which could be a premium this week. This is a long Par 71 and it’s expected to play a lot softer than it did a year ago. There has been rain leading up to the tournament and we could get more of it on Friday and Saturday. Longer hitters will have a huge advantage, especially ones that carry the ball a long way (Mullinax is in the top ten on tour in carry distance this season). He’s been in solid form over the last few months and he’s gained 14 strokes on his approaches in his last two tournaments.
Too Talented to be this Cheap
This pick is betting on talent more than anything else. When do we ever get the opportunity to roster RCB at a cheaper price point than Kevin Na and Rory Sabbatini? Even more, when do we get to do that on a long course that requires you to hit a lot of drivers? The answer is never, so we should take advantage of it this week. He’s one of the best total drivers on tour, he’s great with his long irons, and he makes a ton of birdies. He has made 20 of his last 21 cuts on the PGA Tour and has sprinkled in 12 top 25 finishes during that stretch. Eat the chalk with RCB and take your stands elsewhere.
Let's Take a Look at the Flowchart
When it comes to Mitchell, the rule of thumb is very simple — is he playing on bermuda greens and on a course that lets him hit driver? If so, use him in all formats. It has really been that simple this season. His putting splits are incredible on bermuda and he’s one of the best in the world off the tee (second in this field). He’s ranked 13th in approach, fourth in opportunities, and fifth in birdie or better percentage. Unlike many young golfers coming off a win, he’s actually strung together some nice finishes. He clearly has an eye for the course after finishing in a tie for third here last season.
Best Statistics of Any Golfer in the Field
This is one of those weeks where I don’t feel great about anyone at the top of the board. I will have shares of Koepka, Matsuyama, Stenson, and Leishman in my MME builds, but I will be starting my main lineup with Im. He is a statistical darling, ranking 13th or better in this field in strokes gained total, off the tee, approach, opportunities, birdie or better percentage, and bogey avoidance. A lack of course history is typically a negative for golfers, but Trinity Forest has only been in the rotation for one year and it’s expected to be a much different course this time around with all of the rain in the forecast. Im is going to break through soon and this could very well be the week.
Aaron Baddeley is no longer in the field
Aaron Baddeley has decided to take a pass on this week’s Byron Nelson. He has been replaced in the field by Parker McLachlin. DraftKings has added both the four Monday qualifiers to the field and John Senden. It remains to be seen if McLachlin will make it into the pricing pool. FanDuel has not added any players as of yet. All of the players added to the DraftKings pricing pool have projections and can be used in LineupHQ.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Parker McLachlin, Roland Thatcher, John Senden, Todd Balkin, Zack Fischer Andrew Landry is longer in the field
Andrew Landry has withdrawn from this week’s Byron Nelson. At this time there is no injury news associated with this move. Landry has been replaced in the field by North Texas resident John Senden. We should see Senden and the four Monday qualifiers in the pricing pool within 24 hours. Senden is trying to play his way back onto the tour after taking a leave of absence to be with his family during a difficult time.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: John Senden Steady Value
Safe, steady value has tremendous benefits in a field such as the one we have for this event. When we consider the fact that this is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour (or at least it played as such in its debut), getting all six golfers through the cut is paramount. That’s where Nick Taylor comes in handy. He has quietly made eight consecutive cuts this season, and that doesn’t even include his ninth place finish (with Martin Laird) at the team event in Louisiana a few weeks ago. Given the weak nature of this field, I am surprised that Taylor still comes at such a value price tag. He grades out average statistically and really isn’t a “sexy” option, but I think he’s good for a made cut and a finish in the 30th range — and that’s good enough for this salary.
Risk/Reward Bounce Back Potential
This pick is definitely not for the faint of heart, but it’s potentially a spot where we can take advantage of recency bias in DFS. Burns bombed as a chalky value play last week, shooting 6-over par in his first round before withdrawing with a back injury. It does not sound like his injury is anything serious, as it was likely a precautionary move once he realized he was extremely unlikely to make the cut. Burns is a talented golfer with plenty of upside who was otherwise playing well, and I like him to get back on track this week on a Texas course with bermudagrass greens. While his stats are still lagging a bit for the year as a whole, he had been turning a corner with four straight top 30 finishes prior to last week. Hopefully he can get the momentum back in a weak field event.