DFS Alerts

The Putting God Needs to Keep up the Solid Ball Striking

McCarthy doesn’t have as many high finishes as I’d like to see, but at this price point he doesn’t exactly need a top 10 to pay off his salary. We don’t have any ShotLink data from the event last week, but he led the field in driving accuracy and hit just under 70% of greens. After being one of the worst putters on tour the first seven months of the season, he gained 12.8 strokes on approach in a four-event stretch (the best run in his career). Strangely enough, this is when he started struggling with the putter (golf, right?). If his ball striking continues to be better and he ultimately shows that he’s still the best putter on tour, a win should be in his future. At the very least, we can expect some high finishes soon. It doesn’t hurt that he’s posted back-to-back top 20 finishes at this event the last two seasons.

This Man Loves Golf and Loves Bermuda

Will Zalatoris has been terrific since the restart. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 15 on the Korn Ferry Tour and has posted back-to-back top 10s on the PGA Tour. I’m certainly buying his stock long-term, but I’ll side with the more proven commodity in Im this week if choosing between the two. And honestly, you can fit both into lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings without much hassle. Sungjae’s game has been up and down since the restart, but he seems to be trending upward after a T11 at the Tour Championship and a T22 at the U.S. Open. Over those two events, he gained 10.2 strokes on approach (which is what he was struggling with the last few months). He’s long played his best on bermuda courses and we have one on our hands this week in Mississippi. Im played here last year and nearly took it down, ultimately finishing second to Sebastian Munoz.

Field update ahead of Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

D.A. Points and Bronson Burgoon are both out this week and have been replaced by Andres Romero and Eric Axley. Both Romero and Axley are tour veterans who will look to use this week to improve future status on tour. Projections for both players have been added and they are ready for use in LineupHQ. At this point, the best-case scenario would be to use them as a deep GPP flyer only.

Under The Radar Value

On FanDuel and DraftKings, Kitayama makes for a fine value, and I am curious to see where ownership will land. Many casual players do not know much about him, and that might help keep ownership low. Kitayama has flashed upside at times with some hot Monday qualifier rounds, and he won twice in 2019 on the European Tour. He’s a long hitter and should be able to contend in a weak field by wrecking the par fives. In 2019, he ranked third on the European Tour in driving distance and 17th in strokes gained off the tee. He’s more experienced than most of the other value golfers on the board and makes for a fine value on FD/DK.

Bursting Onto The Scene

It certainly seems odd to see a 24 year-old Korn Ferry Tour regular as the most expensive golfer and the betting market favorite for a PGA Tour event. Alas, nothing should surprise us any more in the year 2020. Zalatoris is in this event on a sponsor exemption, and he also just happens to be coming off a top ten finish in the U.S. Open. Oh, and he leads the Korn Ferry Tour in greens in regulation, ball striking, and scoring average. He’s sixth in total driving. He is currently riding a stretch with 12 top 20 finishes in a row since mid June. Don’t be fooled by the fact that he doesn’t have his PGA Tour card yet; he’s the best up and coming golfer since Morikawa burst onto the scene over a year ago. He’s a fine play despite the hefty salary tag.

Elite Upside With Value

I will admit my bias here. I am a sucker for Will Gordon and a believer in his talent. He had a 23.4% birdie or better rate over his 36 measured rounds in the 2019-2020 season, and that ranked him inside the top 25 on Tour. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but the upside is enormous. He’s also significantly cheaper than others with a similar ceiling (albeit others have a higher floor). In that same stretch, Gordon ranks inside the top 20 in this field in strokes gained off the tee and ball striking. The FanDuel price tag is very enticing at $8,400, while he’s not as good of a buy on Yahoo. Be mindful of the pricing differences among the three sites this week.

Keith Mitchell provides upside at a discount

Weaker field events always provide an interesting dynamic of figuring out who is priced incorrectly relative to the rest of the field. In the bottom third pricing tier this week, Keith Mitchell is a player that you can make a case for as a strong source of value. With a game that tends to be erratic, Mitchell is not without risk for the week. The appealing part of adding Mitchell to a roster pool is the upside he brings to the table. Mitchell is one of the longer players on tour and can rack up birdies in a hurry, and similar to a guy like Tony Finau he can pay off his salary for the week without a high finish. With one win already on Tour ( Honda Classic), there is a strong case that Mitchell’s price is just too low in comparison to the strength of this week’s field.

Luke List looks to build on a good season

Good ball strikers always tend to pop in any strokes gained models. Luke List has always been one of those players who’s numbers look better than his actual play. Most week’s a balky putter keeps List from reaching his potential. The lack of performing to our expectations has soured many on List, but there is a strong case for adding him as a core piece for the week. Bouncing back between both The PGA Tour and The Korn Ferry Tour, List took a big step to furthering his career with a win this summer on The Korn Ferry Tour. Armed with a bit more of consistent putting List will create more opportunities moving forward., Over the years The Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship has been a great place for an unproven player to get his first win, and List certainly has the skill set to get it done.

Sam Burns

Testing

Chalk Never Tasted so Good

Gordon has been the chalk value play in a number of events since the restart and I’ve avoided him in those spots… until now. He’s basically priced about where he was in those stacked fields and now he gets to play against a lot of older gentlemen and golfers that spend most of their time on the Korn Ferry Tour. Gordon currently leads the new season in driving distance and grades out 10th in my hole yardage breakdown statistic. If his putter shows up, he could easily find himself in contention this week.

Bomber + Putter = Corales Champion?

Rodgers has been a popular target of mine since the restart, at least anytime we can get him away from bermuda courses. For whatever reason, his putting takes a big hit on that surface in particular and that trickles down to the rest of his game. He fits the bomber and putter mold that I mentioned in the preview, as he’s ranked 11th in strokes gained off the tee and fifth in strokes gained putting in this field. He’s only played this event once, but finished T22 in 2018.

His Last Name has no Impact on his Golf Swing

Schenk hasn’t been amazing since the restart, but he has quietly made six straight cuts in some pretty stacked fields. He now heads to Punta Cana as one of the most talented golfers teeing it up in this week’s event. While he has lost strokes gained off the tee in three straight events, he’s 10th in this field in that statistic over the last 50 rounds. He has the distance that I’m looking for, he can gain strokes with his irons, and he’s a better putter than you might realize. He also grades out 13th in my hole yardage breakdown statistic that I talk about in the model video each week. He’s one of a handful of golfers that has played this event each of the last two years and he’s posted back-to-back top 35 finishes.

A Great Value

He has a track record of success at the US Open dating back to 2012, making 7 of 8 cuts with finishes of 16, MC, 16, 46, 12, 12, 28, 27. He is used to these difficult tests and is the kind of guy that can hit fairways and get up and down for par when he needs to. I am willing to give him a pass on the short-term form in favor of his experience in majors and familiarity with challenging US Open tracks. He is one of the best bets to make the cut under 7500 and is someone I am willing to get into my lineups in all formats.

Five Minutes to roster lock at the U.S. Open, no major news to report

With just under five minutes until roster lock, there is no major news to report ahead of the U.S. Open. ResultsDB will be up and running a few minutes after lock. Good luck this week grinders.

Hideki Matsuyama – Has to be Deki, all things considered. I like Reed and Hatton but I have Deki as my favorite and the one that seems the best value or bang for buck. At just $9k he feels extremely fair and we are getting a class golfer that some may forget is still looking for his first Major. There are other guys like Fowler/Kuchar in the same boat but Hideki is one that has actually been bringing the game as of late to compete/contend. Since the WGC in Memphis, his worst finish is a 29th and his best finish was at the extremely tough BMW Championship, where he finished 3rd at a score of -2. I really like Deki to keep pace. We are often sweating him to make birdie and he makes par. Par is a great score here and he doesn’t really blow up or make huge mistakes. In the last 12 months, he rates out top 5 in this field for T2G, APP and Around the green. He’s also 7th in bogey avoidance.