DFS Alerts
Improving Form Brings Upside
Like Matsuyama, Im also went through a rough stretch after the restart. The good news is that those struggles also seem to be a thing of the past for Im. His approach play was very strong at the Tour Championship and the U.S. Open, and he closed out last week’s event with one of the best rounds of the day on Sunday. A lot of that was buoyed by a hot putter, but it is clear that Im is gaining confidence right now. It also helps that he has seen TPC Summerlin before, finishing 15th here in his debut two years ago. With the form improving and ownership likely not through the roof here, I’m a buyer on Im in GPP formats.
Great Course History
It will be interesting to see how the masses handle Patrick Cantlay this week. On one hand, Cantlay has zero top ten finishes over his last seven starts. On the other hand, he still finished the 2019-2020 season ranked inside the top 20 in birdie or better percentage and strokes gained from tee to green. The course history at TPC Summerlin is also sparkling, as Cantlay has finished 1st, 2nd, and 2nd here over the last three years. He took a couple of weeks off after the U.S. Open and should be rested and ready to go for this one. I’m banking on his combination of talent and course history to get him back on track here.
Ladies and Gentlemen, it is Cam Week
Smith could be featured in the conviction plays given what should be low ownership, but I like him enough to list him as a core play. As noted in the introduction, around the green and putting tends to be a major factor at this event. There are few better on and around the greens than Smith. Smith’s play has been erratic over the last year, but he was ranked in the top 25 in the world a couple years ago. He is finally starting to discover some form and his price has yet to reflect it. He has quietly made seven straight cuts and has top 25 finishes in three of his last four starts. He has gained strokes on approach in five straight events and has posted T10 and T13 finishes in his last two trips to TPC Summerlin.
Shaking Off the Rust
I wrote up Scheffler last week, but was concerned when I saw his pre-tournament comments after testing positive for COVID. He said he felt good about his form, but thought it might take a few reps to shake off the rest. After shooting a round of one-over par in the first round, I was worried about him missing the cut. He luckily played well over the next three days and worked his way up into a tie for 37th. Before his forced break, he finished in the top 25 in six straight events. And make no mistake about it, those were some of the strongest fields that we’ve seen all year. He’s an elite ball striker, he’s better around the greens than you might expect, and bentgrass has been his best putting surface in his young career. I’ll go back to the well at a discounted price point.
Six Straight Top 30s and a T16 here Last Season
I originally wanted to write up Webb Simpson (and still view him as an elite play), but once I started building out my main lineup, I liked the balanced approach a little better. Starting with Hideki over Webb allows you to upgrade a lineup or two at the bottom of your lineup. Matsuyama doesn’t have the elite putting like I talked about in the introduction, but he’s third in this field in strokes gained approach and third in strokes gained around the green. That’s a lethal combination around these parts and we know all golfers can run into a hot putting week every now and then. In his two appearances here, he has finishes of T10 and T16. He’s also coming off of six straight top 30 finishes and three straight top 17 finishes.
Cameron Percy flying under the radar ahead of Sanderson Farms Championship
Cameron Percy heads into this week having posted back to back top 25 or better finishes. Having gained almost 19 shots tee to green in his last five starts at this event, Percy tends to play some of his best golf on this course. The combination of good recent form and solid course history should mean an overall increased interest in Percy. At less than 8% in projected ownership, Percy makes for a great late addition to roster pools for the week. For those building last-minute showdown entries, Percy also makes sense in terms of his strong course history. In his last 16 rounds at The Country Club of Jackson, Percy has shot 70 or better 10 times.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership
Chris Kirk looks to bounce back from a missed cut
After missing the cut at last week’s Corales Puntacana Championship, Chris Kirk will look to get some early season momentum back on his side. Trending towards a very low ownership number, there is a great opportunity to cheap exposure to a golfer with a ton of upside ahead of this week. After missing time in order to get his life back together, Kirk returned to the world of professional golf earlier this summer. Kirk wasted no time making an impact in the game of golf and with his win at The King and The Bear Classic ( Korn Ferry Tour), Kirk was able to claim his 7th career professional victory ( first since 2015). Playing in his 4th Sanderson Farms Championship, Kirk has 2 made cuts including a runner-up finish. Kirk is a great iron player who should find plenty of scoring opportunities on what is typically a second shot course.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership 
Adam Schenk continues to provide upside at a discount
Weaker field events always create this strange pricing dynamic. While some golfers see a pricing increase despite being a player worthy of such a jump in salary, there are other golfers who simply get overlooked in terms of an adjustment. Heading into this week with a seven made cut streak on the line Adam Schenk is a golfer that you can make an argument for in terms of not getting an appropriate price increase. While he is still a good value on FD, the price of $6700 on DK makes Schenk one of the strong punt plays for the week. In his previous three starts at this event, Schenk has three made cuts highlighted by a top 10 finish. Searching for his first top 25 finish or better during this current made cut streak, Schenk has a big opportunity to crush his value with a top 35 or better showing this week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown 
YOLO GPP Value
Here is my YOLO value play of the week. Hossler rarely gets any attention in DFS, but he will be one of my favorite value options this week. Hossler is a good short game player who could thrive if this turns into a putting contest. In addition, we’ve seen plenty of golfers with Texas connections succeed on this course in the past, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Hossler finished 10th when he played here last back in 2017. There is no doubt that the 2019-2020 season was an abysmal one, but he has started off the new Tour season with a pair of made cuts. I like his chances for a bounce back season and a top 25 this week, and he will definitely be owned in the single digit percentages.
Zig While Everyone Else Zags
If this tournament does turn into a putting contest, that worries me to some degree with Conners. In fact, I rarely roster him in DFS. However, I do like the possibility of “zigging when everyone zags” here. Conners missed the cut at both the U.S. Open and last week’s Corales Championship (as a chalky option), and these events are going to have everyone running away with Conners carrying a hefty price tag. Conners is one of the best ball strikers on Tour, and he ranked 12th in strokes gained on approach in the 2019-2020 season. He also finished second here two years ago and has played in each of the last three editions of the event. Fire him up as an elite tournament option in this spot.
Winning Upside In This Field
Redman is quietly becoming one of the more consistent players on the PGA Tour, as he ranked 11th in strokes gained on approach in the 2019-2020 season. He also led the field in strokes gained on approach at the opening fall swing Safeway Open event, where he finished third. We have been seeing consistently strong trends from Redman for several months now, and I would not expect that to slow down in a weaker field event. He did play here a year ago and made the cut, so he has at least seen this course competitively. Give him a long look as a strong DFS option in any format.
Elite Option For A Young Rising Star
If it’s not broken, don’t fix it. Zalatoris got into the field with a top ten at the Corales, and he did it with a blitzing seven under par round on Sunday. I love targeting golfers who come into the new week off a red hot Sunday round, and Zalatoris is no exception. As I stated last week, despite his lack of PGA Tour experience, this is still a golfer who was sitting at the top of statistical leaderboards all over the Korn Ferry Tour — and he’s certainly not out of place in a weaker field PGA Tour event. This week’s field is stronger, sure, but it’s still not elite. Remember, Zalatoris leads the Korn Ferry Tour in greens in regulation, ball striking, and scoring average, and he sits sixth in total driving. After yet another top ten a week ago, he is currently riding a stretch with 13 top 20 finishes in a row since mid June. Expect Zalatoris to be in the mix again down in Mississippi.
Best Golfer in the Field
I’m not particularly high on the $9,000 range (on DraftKings) this week and that’s where the most of the chalk is coming from. I am now pivoting to a two stud approach, so I am taking Denny McCarthy out of the core plays and adding in Scheffler to go along with Im. Scheffler was forced to withdraw from the U.S. Open after getting COVID, but was on an absolute tear in his previous six events. His worst finish was T22 and he gained at least 4.5 strokes with the ball striking in his last five before the U.S. Open. I’m not sure how COVID will affect him, but Harris English got it and he didn’t slow down one bit. Scheffler is the best golfer in the field (not particularly close according to my model) and the duo of him and Im will be low owned. They might be popular individually, but not together.
Bud Cauley and Brian Gay are both no longer in the field
The Sanderson Farms Championship field got a bit more player movement on Tuesday as both Bud Cauley and Brian Gay have decided to not play this week. Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Matt Every have been added to the field as replacements. Both players will receive projections if and when they get added to the player pool.
Other tagged players: Brian Gay, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Matt Every Going Against my Golden Rule of Fading the Cheap Chalk
I usually try to stray away from the cheap chalk (still can’t believe I ended up on Will Gordon last week), but Schenk is mis-priced for his cut equity in this field and on this course. He’s made each of his last seven cuts on the PGA Tour and he’s played here three times, finishing no worse than T43. He could be $7,500 on DraftKings and I would still have plenty of interest in him. When it comes to value golfers, I am generally looking for golfers that can make the cut and from that point, I’ll take my chances with them moving up the leaderboard on the weekend. Schenk is top 50 in this field in strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach. He’s not an elite putter by any stretch, but it’s worth noting that bermuda is his preferred putting surface.