DFS Alerts
Top Ten in Strokes Gained Approach and Strokes Gained Putting on Bermuda
It’s hard not to like Simpson this week. He’s the only golfer in the field that is ranked inside the top ten in strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting on Bermuda. He’s also eighth in the field in tee to green, 14th in bogey avoidance, and fifth in strokes gained around the green. In his first three events of the calendar year, he has gained over 18 strokes on his approaches. While he doesn’t have extensive course history, he played here last season and finished in a tie for fifth. We know he’s comfortable on Bermuda courses (see last year’s Players Championship) and he’s cheap across the industry. He rates out as the third best play of the week in my model, yet he’s the seventh most expensive golfer on DraftKings and the eighth most expensive golfer on FanDuel.
Padraig Harrington is no longer in the field
Still sidelined with a broken wrist, Padraig Harrington will not play in this week’s Honda Classic. Ben Silverman will take his spot in the field. It remains to be seen if Silverman or any other late week adds get plugged into the DFS pricing pools.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter
Playing Better Golf Right Now
McDowell has been very inconsistent over the last few years, but we are finally seeing some things click for him. He has made the cut in each of his last three starts, with a pair of top 20’s included in that mix. He has been one of the best short game players on Tour so far this season, ranking 16th in putting for the 2018-2019 year. The price tag seems to be lagging behind his recent play, especially given the weaker field strength. McDowell posted top 15 finishes here in both 2016 and 2017, and a similar result this time around would more than pay off his cheap price tag.
Sneaky Upside
There is no doubt that his form has been underwhelming thus far in 2019, but the overall skill set and upside are still there. Henley is a past champion of this event, and he still ranks inside the top 50 on Tour in ball striking despite his shaky start to the season. He sometimes tends to pop in these weaker field events, and I have more interest in Henley given the fact that the field is weaker here in 2019. The high price tag on DraftKings is a bit uncomfortable, but that will only serve to keep ownership down. He has looked better over his last three events outside of one bad round at Pebble Beach, and there’s sneaky upside here. Shhhhhh.
An Elite Play
I worry about the motivation level of some of the highest priced golfers this week, so I’ll go cheaper with Woodland as my top option on the board. His game is a great fit for this golf course, and he currently leads the PGA Tour in ball striking. He has made the cut in each of the last three editions of this event, and that includes a second place finish two years ago. He hasn’t missed a cut since last May and strolls in with three straight top 20’s on his resume. A win is coming soon, and this event is a possibiltiy given the relative weakness of the field. He’s locked in right now and should be ready to pounce on an event that really is a winnable one for him.
Gator Power
Horschel is a Florida native who is always capable of thriving during this time of year, and he’s a notoriously streaky player. The good news is that he actually comes into this stretch with some good form, as he hasn’t missed a cut since last summer. He had logged back to back top ten finishes at this event prior to a missed cut last year, and he currently ranks inside the top five on the PGA Tour in ball striking right now. Almost every check box is positive with him at the moment. While I am by no means a Horschel homer, he is one of my favorite options on the entire board at his current salary level.
Twenty minutes to roster lock and no major news to report
With a little over twenty minutes until the roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front. Outside of Andrew Putnam withdrawing earlier in the week, there has been no player movement to report. ResultsDB will be up and running within 10 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Danny Willet looks to continue improved play
The plight of Danny Willett is not like many other first time major winners. Prior to his 2016 Masters win, Willett was considered one of the better young European Tour players in terms of talent. Winning a major championship can definitely change someone’s life and in the case of Willett, the change was not exactly positive at first. Willett floundered for almost two years and looked lost at times. The road back to positive play has not been an easy one for Willett, but with a win last November on The European Tour this former major champion appears to be on the right track in terms of finding his game. Willett is one of the biggest movers in terms of odds for the week, as betters are taking a chance on this long shot. Reasonably priced across the industry, Willett makes sense as a punt play with upside especially since this is a no-cut event.
As reported by: PGA DFS MODEL Tiger Woods set to play Club de Golf Chapultepec for the first time
Tiger Woods has always been very particular about what events he chooses to play on The PGA Tour. In addition to being one of the best athletes to ever play the game, Tiger has always gone the extra mile to do everything he can in terms of putting himself in the best position to win. With the late addition of this week’s WGC Mexico Championship to his schedule, Tiger is once again trying to do everything in his power to compete for a win. In terms of looking at his game from a statistical standpoint, Tiger has gained strokes in all of the major categories over his last few starts. Tiger was able to overcome a slow start to his Genesis Open by playing some amazing golf for a period of time on Saturday and Sunday. Like many other players the marathon of Sunday golf got the best of Tiger as he faded late on Sunday, but if you watched any of the golf it was clear to see that Tiger likes where his game is as he was playing with a supreme amount of confidence. Tiger is in this week’s field because he both likes where his game is as well as he likes how the course fits his style of play. If Tiger can continue to hit his irons close and hole a few putts then we could easily see the big cat contend for the trophy come Sunday
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Francesco Molinari flying under the radar
Current Open Champion and internationally tested Francesco Molinari enters this week with not much buzz in terms of projected ownership. As a general rule, most players who split time between the European and PGA Tour typically have lower than expected ownership. Currently projected to have less than 5% ownership for the week the addition of Molinari to a roster builds represents an opportunity to add both upside and leverage. With so many talented golfers in this week’s field, it’s easy for players like Molinari to garnish almost no interest. Making his first start in the last few months there is an argument to be made for Molinari having a bit of rust. Even if you fear the rust, there is a strong case to be made for Molinari having a good week at Club de Golf Chapultepec. At a golf course the demands accuracy over distance, Molinari has proven time and time again that he can excel at this type of venue. Molinari will make his third appearance at Club de Golf Chapultepec and will look to improve on two top 25 or better finishes. Given his predicted low ownership, Molinari represents a chance to buy a very talented golfer that can easily crush his price for the week.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Ryan Fox and Adrian Otaegui have been added to the DFS pricing pool
On a normal PGA Tour event, we never see a mid-week PGA field addition makes his way into a DFS pricing pool. With bigger weeks like a major championship where pricing is released prior to the final field, we have seen players added to the field who qualified after the inial pricing added to DFS pricing pool. With this week being a WGC event there has not been much player movement, but with J.B. Holmes deciding to take a pass on the event, and Andrew Putnam withdrawing yesterday two new players were added to the field. Both Ryan Fox and Adrian Otaegui have been added to the field and are now available in DFS pricing pools. Of the two players, Fox has more of a proven pedigree and can be considered as a GPP dart for the week. Having played in a handful of majors and WGC events, Fox is no stranger to competing in this type of field and in a no-cut event has enough upside to pay off his salary for the week.
Other tagged players: Adrian Otaegui Tommy Fleetwood stands out as a great value in a strong field
The 2019 season has yet to produce a big finish from Tommy Fleetwood. With back to back finishes outside of the top 25, Fleetwood gets quite a big discount in pricing for this week’s WGC Mexico Championship. Fleetwood has yet to win on the PGA Tour but is one of the few talented players without a win that we can honestly expect to win any week he tees it up. Fleetwood is one of the best iron players in the game and proximity to the hole will reign supreme this week. Playing in his third WGC Mexico Championship, Fleetwood will look to improve on T14 and T2 in his first two tries at this event. Wins and or the probability to win are an often an inflated element of pricing on any given week. The talent in this field will lower everyone’s true odds to win, but even without a win, Fleetwood is too talented to pass up at this price.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Kiradech Aphibarnrat looks to bounce back from a missed cut
Playing in his 4th career WGC Mexico Championship and looking to bounce back from a poor showing at last week’s Genesis Open, Kiradech Aphibarnrat is a player who stands out as a great value play this week. Ranked inside the top 50 in the world Aphibarnrat is no stranger to competing with the best players in the game. A winner of 11 international events including 4 European victories, Aphibarnrat is a player that knows what it takes to win at golf’s highest level. Priced down due to the talent in this field, Aphibarnrat stands out as a great play in terms of Pt/$/K in our DraftKings projection model for the week. Looking to improve on 5th place showing at last year’s WGC Mexico Championship, Aphibarnrat has exceeded 8 in terms of Pt/$/K in 3 of his last five starts on the PGA Tour.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Jon Rahm looks to continue his excellent play
With the debt of talent in this WGC field, picking a clear cut option in terms of a top end spend will be a difficult decision. Pricing on a site like DraftKings makes it very hard to like a roster where you pick two of the top end players. While he will still garnish ownership on the week, Jon Rahm will not be as popular as some of the other top-end options. Rahm has yet to finish outside the top ten in 2019 and has gone on record of really liking this course. Rahm says this venue reminds him of Colonial and he feels his driver can be a weapon at Club de Golf Chapultepec. While other players will lay back Rahm believes he can drive it straight and far giving him easier approach shots into greens. Rahm has a T3 and T20 at this event which definitely bodes well for the narrative that he likes the venue. Two top-five finishes at a course like Colonial which typically takes the driver out of a player’s hands shows that Rahm has the game to back up a different approach. Playing with both talent and confidence Rahm is a player worthy of a top end spend for the first WGC event of 2019.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Let's Get Off to a Strong Start this Week
Woods is a late addition to the picks this week. I might be the biggest Tiger homer in the industry, so I try to recommend him as a play as sparingly as possible. After a deeper dive into the statistics, I’m taking out Tony Finau and adding Woods to the official picks. Finau’s last three events haven’t been great tee-to-green, which doesn’t exactly bode well for him this week. Meanwhile, Tiger has gained strokes in all four facets of the game (off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting) in each of his last five events. He got off to a slow start at Torrey Pines, but had a strong finish and posted a T20. He barely made the cut last week at the Genesis Open, but rallied on the weekend to post a T15. This week’s course demands accuracy with irons and a good week with the flatstick. Those are two of Tiger’s strengths and I like that he chose to play this event over next week’s Honda Classic.