DFS Alerts
Ten Minutes to roster lock, no major news to report
With a little over ten minutes until the roster lock, it’s quiet on the news front. Outside of Chris Stroud and Padrig Harrington withdrawing earlier in the week, there has been no player movement to report. ResultsDB will be up and running within 10 minutes of roster lock. Make sure to check out how your lineups stack up against the field.
Other tagged players: Padraig Harrington
Daniel Berger flying under the radar
It’s no secret that Daniel Berger would rather forget his 2018 season. After making it to The Tour Championship his first three seasons on tour, Berger struggled to a 70th place finish in last seasons FedEx Cup race. Hoping to bounce back from a season in which he posted only one top ten in 23 starts Berger heads into this week a bit of momentum. While many of his contemporaries were competing in the WGC Mexico, Berger spent the week trying to find his game in the Puerto Rico Open. Fueled by a closing 66 Beger posted a 2nd place finish at The Puerto Rico Open. Currently projected to have a sub 7% ownership, Berger represents a great opportunity to pivot off other players in the same price range. Berger finished second at this event two years ago and tends to play well on Bermuda greens. With talent and motivation by his side, Berger is without a doubt trending in the right direction at a course that fits his game.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Martin Kaymer looks to finally be healthy
With two major wins and a Players Championship in the span of a four year period Martin Kaymer had positioned himself to be one of the top players in the game. Winless since his 2014 U.S. Open victory, Kaymer is playing in this week’s Honda Classic and appears to finally have a lingering wrist injury behind him. Kaymer loves this type of golf course and if healthy has a proven track record of playing hard golf courses well. Priced down due to a prolonged period of substandard play, Kaymer is a value play that can be had at very low ownership. With 4 top 25 or better finishes in his last seven worldwide starts, Kaymer appears to be headed in the right direction ahead of this week’s event. Like many other tour players, Kaymer has a home base in Florida so he is very much at home on courses that feature Bermuda grass.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Michael Thompson continues to ride a hot hand
Michael Thompson’s crowning achievement in golf came when he won the 2013 Honda Classic. Like many other first time winners, Thompson has struggled to regain the form it took to win at golfs highest level. Thompson failed to break the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings each of the last four seasons, resulting in the hard path of bouncing between the Web.com and The PGA Tour in hopes of earning full status. Playing some of the best golf in quite some time, Thompson heads into this week on the heels of 4 straight top 13 or better finishes. Fueled by increased accuracy both off the tee and with his irons, Thompson has gained an average of 8 shots tee to green in his last four starts. The combination of his past success and his recent play makes Thompson a player worth targeting in GPP’s this week. In a recent article with Golf Digest Thompson sited that the sense of urgency to play well has really helped him to get his career back on track.
As reported by: PGA GPP Breakdown Sungjae Im looks to bounce back from a few missed cuts
PGA Tour rookie Sunjae Im burst onto the scene during the fall finish with a very strong performance at The Safeway Open. Im narrowly missed making it to a playoff in his first tour event as a member. Since that time Im has played both good and bad golf and enters this week hoping to get back on the right foot. Prior to missed cuts at The Genisis Open and Pebble Beach, Im had made five straight cuts including three top 20 or better finishes. Through almost 50 rounds of statistical data, Im has very solid stats in all of the ball striking metrics. Even though he is making his first appearance at this course, Im should have a game that fits PGA National very well. Value will be at a premium this week, and Im is the type of player worthy of exposure in all formats.
As reported by: PGA Cash Breakdown Cheng-Tsung Pan continues to gain steam
Besides a few big named players, this is an overall pretty weak field in terms of finding players you feel comfortable adding to a roster pool. On a site like DraftKings, the hardest roster choices surround picking value plays that you can trust for the week. Having only missed two cuts since May of last year, Cheng-Tsung Pan is a player gaining interest in terms of projected ownership for the week. Over his last 22 starts on tour, Pan has 8 top 25 or better finishes including a pair of top-five finishes late last season. With a game built around accuracy, Pan seems to be a great fit for this course and he will look to improve on a 37th and a 17th place showing in his first two tries at The Honda Classic. In a week in which value is very thin, the addition of a steady player like Pan makes a ton of sense in all formats.
As reported by: DraftKings Projected Ownership Trey Mullinax is starting to trend in the right direction
Trey Mullinax is a player who has not quite lived up to expectations. This very talented golfer has two full seasons under his belt on The PGA Tour and is hopeful that his early season success can carry him to his best season yet. Having not finished inside the top 100 in the year-end FedEx Cup standings Mullinax has the skills needed to play well and make a bigger impact on tour. After missing the first two starts of the year during the wraparound season, Mullinax has rattled off six straight made cuts including 3 top 25 or better finishes in his last 3 starts. A deeper dive into stats shows that Mullinax is gaining strokes off the tee and with his irons during this period of improved play. Making his second start at The Honda Classic, an improved and confident Mullinax is the type of value play that could pay dividends this week.
As reported by: Pga Value Breakdown Jason Kokrak looks to keep up his solid play
Jason Kokrak is quietly having a nice start to the 2019 PGA Tour season. Kokrak is seven for seven in cuts made this year including 3 top 25 or better finishes. Historically a good ball striker, Kokrak has finished inside the top 50 in strokes gained tee to gree three out of the last four years. Steady recent play combined with his skill set has Kokrak near the top of our projections in terms of Pt/$/K for The Honda Classic. Priced down on most sites Kokrak is a value play that stands out for the week. The only thing really holding down Kokrak from being an even better play is his lack of decent course history at PGA National. For as good as he is at ball striking, Kokrak is equally bad in strokes gained around the green. Scrambling will something to pay attention to this week, and if Kokrak can have a good week around the greens and with his putter then he certainly has the other skills needed to perform well at PGA National.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Tool Chris Stroud is no longer in the field
Chris Stroud has decided to take a pass on this week’s Honda Classic. He has been replaced in the field by Brady Schnell. It remains to be seen whether or not Schnell will be added to the DFS pricing pool for the week.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter Other tagged players: Brady Schnell Never Missed a Cut at this Event
Cink is known as a consistent golfer with limited upside. That’s basically how I see him this week, but we don’t need a top ten finish for him to pay off his cheap salary. A made cut will do the trick and anything in the top 30 will easily exceed salary-based expectations. He has played here seven times and he has yet to miss a cut. That sounds pretty good to me, especially for cash games. His recent form isn’t anything to write home about, but he does have three top five finishes on his resume since June.
Safety is Your Friend at PGA National
Furyk has popped in my model in each of his last two tournaments and he has yet to disappoint, posting finishes of T37 and T14. He’s at a point of his career where he can no longer compete on the bomber’s tracks, but he can certainly still play well on these shorter courses that take driver out of golfer’s hands. When it comes to long iron play, there are few better than Furyk. He’s also ranked second in this field in bogey avoidance, which will come in handy on a course that features water hazards on 13 of the 18 holes. Even with all of the Ryder Cup obligations last year, Furyk played here and posted a respectable T43 finish. Look for him to improve on that this week.
Low Owned Play with Upside
Cauley isn’t a golfer that I expect to garner much ownership this week. He is coming off of a missed cut at the Genesis Open, but has gained strokes with his approaches in four straight events. He’s ranked 20th in the field in birdie or better percentage and 18th in bogey avoidance. Making birdies while avoiding bogeys is critical on a course like PGA National. He has only played here one time, finishing in a tie for 27th. I really think he could surprise people this week, especially if the course shows its teeth. These greens are very hard to hit, which is why scrambling typically plays a big role here. Cauley is ranked third in this field in strokes gained around the green.
Elite Ball Striking at a Discounted Price Point
Here is a stat that will surprise you — Kokrak hasn’t missed a cut on tour since The Open. That’s basically eight months between missed cuts. For some odd reason, sites have no interest in factoring in his recent form. His statistics stand out compared to other golfers priced around him, as Kokrak is ranked 12th or better in this field in strokes gained tee to green, strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, and proximity from the key distances for this course. While he doesn’t have the best course history around, Bermuda is his preferred putting surface. Unlike Michael Thompson, Kokrak is chalk that I’m willing to play because he is underpriced compared to his talent level and he has shown more consistency than Thompson over the last six months.
He is the One Who Knox
Knox rates out as the tenth best golfer in my model this week, yet he’s dirt cheap across the industry. The only thing holding him back from being 20%+ owned is the fact that he has missed the cut here in back-to-back years. I’m willing to overlook that for two reasons. First, he’s in much better form this time of year than he was at this point last season. Knox has played six events in the calendar year, posting three top 20 finishes and zero missed cuts. And second, his course history was actually very good before his last two attempts. His previous three results were T26, T3, and T2. He’s ranked first in the field in bogey avoidance and he lives in the area, which never hurts.
Good Form and a Good Pivot
Everyone is going to play Michael Thompson at this price point. He has four straight top 15 finishes on tour and he has won this event in the past. When looking to play or fade chalk, I like to ask two simple questions — 1) is the golfer overpriced compared to his talent level? 2) is the golfer volatile? I would argue that Thompson is significantly overpriced and if you look at his last 13 events on tour, he has missed five cuts. I will gladly pivot to Piercy, who comes into the event in similar form and who, in my humble opinion, is a better golfer. Piercy has four top ten finishes in his last eight events on tour and he played well here last year, finishing in a tie for 17th. His preferred putting surface is Bermuda and he should be significantly lower owned than Thompson.