10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 20th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, August 20th.
1. With 32.2% strikeout rate and a 1.34 HR/9, Max Scherzer is a truly unique pitcher in that he’s always susceptible to the home run, but his strikeout numbers are high enough that DFS players don’t even care. In fact, the last player to have even a 28.0% strikeout rate or higher and a 1.20 HR/9 or higher over a full season was Curt Schilling, 15 years ago in 2001.
2. In nine career games against the Braves, Scherzer has never reached double figures in strikeouts. In fact, they’re just one of three National League teams against whom Scherzer has never reached double figures in strikeouts in a game (the Giants and Nationals are the others). Then again, there’s hope – on Thursday, Scherzer’s teammate, Reynaldo Lopez, became the first right-handed pitcher to strike out 10+ Braves in a game this season.
3. Felix Hernandez has struck out six or more in four consecutive games. The last time he fanned 6+ in four straight was back in 2014, when he did it in 12 straight games (May 23-July 25). The 2016 version of Felix isn’t a world beater, and to be fair, he’s walked 16 batters in those last four starts. But he’s also gotten 60.0% ground balls, allowed just a .133 average, and has just a 23.3% hard hit rate. We know Hernandez is dominant against righties (his .191 average allowed this year would rank fourth in MLB if he had innings to qualify), and that should play in his matchup against the Brewers, who are almost entirely right-handed.
4. Mike Leake. Jaime Garcia. Matt Moore. Anibal Sanchez. What do all these pitchers have in common? They’ve all had more double-digit strikeout games in 2016 than Chris Sale’s one. To illustrate how much Sale has changed as a pitcher this year: Sale struck out 10+ in eight consecutive games last year from May 23rd to June 30th (as DFS players certainly remember). Now, obviously 10 is an arbitrary number I just pulled out of thin air (Sale has five games of nine strikeouts), but until Sale shows otherwise, we have to keep assuming Sale no longer has the strikeout upside of a Jose Fernandez or Max Scherzer. Against the Athletics’ 18.1% strikeout rate against righties, in a bad ballpark (Sale has a 4.55 ERA at home this year), it’s easy to justify a fading Sale on Saturday.
5. The leader in SIERA over the second half on this slate isn’t Max Scherzer, or Chris Sale, or Aaron Sanchez. It’s Robbie Ray. His 29.8% strikeout rate on the road ranks sixth among qualified starters this year, trailing only Fernandez, Duffy, Kershaw, Strasburg, and Scherzer. And then there’s this: the last five left-handed starters to face the Padres (Blake Snell, Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, Brandon Finnegan, Jaime Garcia) all allowed either one or zero earned run, and they all earned wins.
6. Brandon Finnegan has allowed one home run to a LHB this year…and 25 to righties. It’s not clear who on the Dodgers (.133 team ISO against RHP, ranked 28th in MLB) can take advantage of Finnegan’s weakness against righty power, but it’s worth noting that if you’re targeting Yasmani Grandal, you’re doing it for base hits, not power – in 323 career plate appearances, he’s only got eight career home runs against left-handed pitching, and as a righty, his ISO dips below league average (.140 vs. LHP, .199 vs. RHP).
7. Mike Fiers has allowed a .390 wOBA on the road this year – that’s just a tick below the season wOBA of Paul Goldschmidt (.391). Among qualified starters, only Anibal Sanchez (.407) and Jon Niese (.392) have been worse away from their home parks. When you couple that with the fact that the Orioles rank second in MLB in wOBA (.342), ISO (.198), and wRC+ (111) against RHP, it becomes clear that Orioles bats are firmly in play on Saturday.
8. Since 2014, Carlos Santana has a .167 batting average in 308 plate appearances against ground ball pitchers, which is by far the lowest in MLB (among players with at least 300 PA against GB pitchers, Ryan Howard is next-lowest at .199). And he doesn’t hit for power, either, with just 11 extra-base hits, tied for the fewest in MLB (again, min. 300 PA). Full disclosure: I’ve written about Santana’s struggles against ground ball pitchers in this column before, but given his matchup against Aaron Sanchez (57.1% ground ball rate, third-highest in MLB), it bears repeating. He should be off your radar on Saturday.
9. Over the past 30 days, Mookie Betts has 10 home runs…and just 10 strikeouts.
10. Brian Dozier has now homered in seven consecutive games against the Kansas City Royals. It’s the longest regular season home run streak by any player against any team in MLB, and after homering last night, he set a new all-time record for consecutive home runs against the Royals (that is, since the Royals have been in Kansas City in 1971). Of course, in DFS, we only care about that day’s matchup. And Dozier happens to have a pretty good one, as he faces Ian Kennedy and his 37.6% hard hit rate and 1.58 HR/9 against right-handed batters (ranking eighth-highest and 16th-highest in MLB, respectively).
Trivia time: What player did Dozier pass for most consecutive games against the Kanas City Royals after homering last night? Leave your answer in the comments thread, and if you’re the first to get it right, you’ll get a shoutout in Sunday’s “10 Notes” article.
Shoutout to jordanh415 and bende239 for getting the correct answers in Thursday’s trivia contest! Well done, guys. I hope you win all the money tonight (and I don’t say that to just anybody).
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!