10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, August 3rd
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, August 3rd.
Friday, August 3rd
1. Jacob deGrom has struck out six batters and surrendered three or fewer earned runs in each of his last 13 home games. That’s the second-longest streak of such games in Mets history, just one game behind…Jacob deGrom, who owns a 14-game streak of such games at home from May 2016 to May 2017. deGrom has been lights out at CitiField for years, and that’s what makes him a priority cash game play even in a difficult matchup with the Braves. Even better, he’s already excelled against this same Braves team four times this year, striking out 25 while walking just five and allowing only two earned runs across 25 innings. With some interesting mid- and lower-tier arms available, and with one obvious salary saver (see note 9), fitting deGrom into your cash games should be no trouble.
2. Against right-handed hitters, only two pitchers (min. 50 IP) have struck out 10+ batters per nine innings in four consecutive seasons dating back to 2015: Max Scherzer and Chris Archer. Archer’s struggles this season have been well documented, but through it all, he’s retained the ability to dominate same-handed hitters. This is noteworthy because in his first start as a Pirate, he’ll have the luxury of facing six, or maybe even seven righties in the Cardinals lineup. He’s got plenty of upside for tournaments, and he fits nicely as an SP2 alongside deGrom in cash games, as well.
3. Over the past 30 days, the Giants have a .285 wOBA (28th in MLB), a 79 wRC+ (28th), and have hit an MLB-low 16 home runs en route to a pathetic .352 slugging (29th). For context, consider that their team slugging over that span is just barely better than Alcides Escobar’s career mark of .341. This is one of the most punchless offenses in MLB, and they’re in a nightmare matchup against Arizona’s Patrick Corbin on Friday. Corbin isn’t close to the best pitcher on this slate, but his heavy slider usage is ideally suited to mow down this Giants squad. Using PlateIQ, let’s take a look at how the projected starting lineup has fared against sliders since 2016:
That’s a lot of red. Corbin is discounted from the two high-end pitchers on the slate, and he may even have a higher ceiling than deGrom or Verlander given the more favorable matchup. He’s an elite tournament play who could easily reach close to double-digits in strikeouts.
4. Marco Gonzalez has put up 20 DraftKings points in five consecutive games; that’s the second-longest active streak in MLB behind only Chris Sale (who has nine straight 20-point games…wow). Gonzalez’s 1.57 ERA and .227 wOBA allowed over this most recent stretch only matched by Sale, as well. At $9,700 at DraftKings, Gonzalez is finally being priced up, which puts him in no-man’s land for cash games, even in a decent matchup against the Blue Jays (below average 92 wRC+ vs. LHPs this year). For tournaments, though, he’s certainly in consideration, even if the Blue Jays roll out a righty-heavy lineup. He’s allowed just a .299 wOBA to righties this year thanks to an arsenal that works well to neutralize opposite-handed hitters (he’s got a nasty cutter has allowed just a .227 wOBA, and his Uncle Charlie isn’t bad either, with a .264 wOBA against righties).
5. German Marquez has a 25.5 percent strikeout rate, a .276 wOBA allowed, and 33.7 percent hard hits allowed on the road this year; the only players to match those numbers (min. 60 IP) are Scherzer, deGrom, Sale, and Verlander. At just $7,500 at DraftKings, he’s priced way below where he deserves to be outside of Coors, and the matchup with Milwaukee is not nearly as dangerous as it looks. The Brewers fan at a 25.1 percent clip against righties, fifth-highest in MLB, and their .318 wOBA, .165 ISO, and 95 wRC+ are all middle-of-the-pack. Marquez is super interesting as a mid-range tournament arm that will save some salary in order to fit in some of the pricier bats on the slate, guys like…
6. Shin-Soo Choo, who is one of three players this year (joining J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge) with 48.0 percent hard hits and a .398 wOBA against righties. In the twilight of his career, Choo has unlocked a new level of power, as evidenced by his 36 barrels, tied with Francisco Lindor for 11th-most in MLB. For context, Choo had 36 barrels all of last year. After putting up 17 runs against Andrew Cashner last night and getting an even worse pitcher tonight in Orioles right-hander David Hess, the Rangers will certainly be popular. But that doesn’t mean you need to fade them. It all starts with Choo, who, at an affordable $4,900, is one of the top overall plays on the slate.
7. Speaking of Rangers, Joey Gallo (in addition to homering) smoked a double at 110 miles per hour last night, his MLB-leading 29th hit (excluding grounders) with a 110+ MPH exit velocity; he hit 28 such balls over the entirety of his 2017 season. Gallo is hitting the ball harder than ever, and while his boom-or-bust game is typically better suited for tournaments, he’s in a dream matchup on Friday against the Orioles’ David Hess. Hess allows a ton of fly balls (47.6% to LHBs this year), and more importantly, he simply doesn’t miss bats. His 13.5 percent strikeout rate ranks 196th of the 200 pitchers who have accrued 50 innings this year (just a tick below Bartolo Colon’s 13.6% mark!), and his 8.4 percent swinging strike rate is tied for 163rd. For whatever reason, DraftKings opted to shave $200 off his price tag, making him a reasonable $4,500. Gallo is an elite play in all formats.
8. One night after Nelson Cruz homered twice, Friday is a “Cruz Versus a Lefty Spot,” as Cruz faces Toronto southpaw Ryan Borucki. Since 2015, Cruz has an MLB-high 50 home runs against lefties in 685 plate appearances; that’s the same number of home runs that Mike Trout (26) and Jose Abreu (24) have combined for in 1,109 plate appearances against lefties during that span. Given the game’s late start and the fact that ownership will likely gravitate towards a few other spots (Rangers/Orioles, Nationals against DeSclafani), Cruz could come in at lower ownership than he should. He’s always a decent bet to go yard when facing a lefty, and though Borucki has yet to allow a homer in the big leagues, Cruz makes for a fantastic tournament one-off.
9. Robinson Chirinos has thrown out just six of 50 base stealers this year; his 12 percent caught stealing percentage is the lowest by a catcher (min. 75 games) since Tyler Flowers threw out just five percent of base stealers in 2016 (three out of 60…yikes). If Chirinos cracks Texas’s lineup, it could be a boon to Jonathan Villar, who should be leading off and, at $3,300, is basically a free square in cash games at DraftKings. In theory, there’s always merit for a tournament fade when ownership gets to high in baseball, but given DraftKings’ tough salary structure, it’ll be tough fading Villar’s stolen base upside in tournaments no matter how high his ownership is projected.
10. There’s only one player in MLB who has a .238 ISO, 46.0 percent hard hits, and a sub-15.0 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this year, and it’s not Trout, or Betts, or Votto, or Lindor, or Jose Ramirez; it’s Mike Moustakas, who faces off against Rockies right-hander German Marquez. Marquez is a quality pitcher, but Friday’s slate is chock full of quality arms, making it tough to find spots outside of Texas to target bats. Moustakas is simply priced too low at DraftKings at just $4,100. Moustakas should benefit from a massive park grade since coming to the Brewers from the Royals (per FanGraphs’ park factors, Miller Park’s 111 HR rating for lefties is tied for second-best in MLB, while Kauffman Stadium’s 93 rating ranks 26th). We’ve yet to see his first home run as a National Leaguer, but if it comes today against Marquez, it’ll almost certainly be at low ownership, which makes him an excellent one-off for GPPs.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!