10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, July 6th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, July 6th.
Friday, July 6th
1. Over the last 30 days, Chris Sale is getting 60.3 percent ground balls; that’s the highest rate in MLB over that stretch. This could be just a small sample size illusion, but over the years, Sale has become less and less of a ground ball pitcher, with his 38.6 percent ground ball rate from 2017 representing a career low. If Sale is able to continue his recent trend of keeping the ball on the ground, coupled with his always elite strikeouts, he would be, like, a $14,000 pitcher. Wait…what’s that? He IS a $14,000 pitcher, today. Well then.
Despite his newfound ground ball tendencies, despite his 2.48 SIERA (second-best in MLB), despite his 36.1 percent strikeout rate (second-best in franchise history, trailing only his own 36.2% mark from a year ago), despite the excellent matchup with the punchless Royals (who rank in the bottom five of MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+), Chris Sale is not a must-play in cash games, at least at two-pitcher sites. Unlike yesterday’s slate, where we had one obvious ace and a bunch of uncertainty, Friday’s slate features a few other high-end arms in excellent spots (see notes 2 and 3). Make no mistake: Sale is the top overall arm on the slate if enough value opens up. But his $14,000 tag at DraftKings is extremely prohibitive.
2. Jacob deGrom at home is one of the most bankable assets in daily fantasy. Case in point: he’s the only pitcher in MLB with four seasons of 10 strikeouts per nine and allowing a sub-1.00 HR/9 at home since 2015. Generally, striking out everyone and not allowing home runs is a recipe for success, and on Friday, it will be very surprising if he doesn’t post a huge game at CitiField against the Rays, who strike out at a high 23.0% clip and own a .125 ISO (third-worst in MLB) against righties this year. While he may not have quite the ceiling of Sale, deGrom has high a floor as anyone, and at a decent savings from Sale, he is my preferred cash game SP1 on two-pitcher sites.
3. Speaking of pitchers who prefer pitching in their home parks, enter Lance McCullers. In a career dating back to 2015, McCullers has posted a 2.44 ERA to go with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate; the only others with those home numbers over that span are deGrom and Clayton Kershaw. The ERA in particular is noteworthy, as it’s barely more than half his ERA on the road (4.77). Even more important that McCullers’ home/road splits, though, is the matchup. On Friday, he’ll take on a White Sox team whose projected lineup (per PlateIQ) has five hitters with strikeout rates above 25.0 percent. Verlander fanned 10 Sox batters yesterday, and it’s difficult to envision McCullers not coming close to that mark. Furthermore, Vegas loves McCullers, as even on a slate with Sale and deGrom, it’s the White Sox with the lowest implied run total at 2.55 runs. McCullers carries a bit more risk than Sale or deGrom, but he makes for a fantastic tournament play, especially if projected ownership on the aforementioned two aces looks high throughout the day.
4. Since last season, only six pitchers have held right-handed batters to a .217 wOBA or below and a sub-28.0% hard-hit rate: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Luis Severino, Rich Hill, and … Lance Lynn. Lynn has some of the widest platoon splits you’ll see, with a career. .280 wOBA allowed to righties and a .346 allowed to lefties. Fortunately for him, he’s in a perfect spot to capitalize on those splits on Friday, as he’ll take on an Orioles team that projects to include only two left-handed hitters (and the lefties, Chris Davis and Chance Sisco, aren’t exactly world beaters themselves). As a team, the Orioles have posted just a .291 wOBA against lefties, third-worst in MLB, and they strike out at a 24.7% clip, sixth-worst in baseball. On top of all that, Lynn is priced in the bargain bin at just $6,400 at DraftKings. At home in an elite matchup, he’s an affordable, readymade SP2 to pair with one of the three high-end arms in cash games.
5. Mike Foltynewicz is getting close to finishing the first half with a sub-2.10 ERA and a sub-.200 batting average allowed. The last qualified Braves pitcher to do that in a first half (min. 89 IP) is a guy you may have heard of. Greg Maddux did it way back in 1995. Before him, it was Phil Niekro in 1967, Lou Fette in 1939, and Pat Ragan in 1916. In DFS, we take stats like ERA and batting average with a grain of salt, but there’s no denying Foltynewicz’s effectivess this season, and while his high walk rate tends to limit his innings, he’s turned a corner in terms of strikeouts this season. While the Brewers do possess some dangerous bats, they also feature a projected lineup that includes six batters with strikeout rates above 22.0 percent. Also helping Folty’s cause is that, as a team, the Brewers walk at just an 8.2 percent clip, below league average (8.6%). There’s no reason at all to go here in cash games, but in tournaments, Foltynewicz offers some savings off the top three pitchers, and he could reasonably keep pace with one or two of them if things break right.
6. Francisco Lindor has seven home runs over the last 14 days…or as many as the Kansas City Royals have as a team. Lindor has been on a tear, and on Friday, the Indians face A’s right-hander Paul Blackburn, whose career 11.3 percent strikeout rate says Lindor (and the rest of the Indians) should have no trouble putting the ball in play. Better yet, they’re at home. Like most of his teammates, Lindor is far better at hitter-friendly Progressive Field (143 wRC+ at home, 105 wRC+ away for his career), but this year, he’s taken it to another level, posting a .438 wOBA and .338 ISO at home (.365 wOBA and .250 ISO on the road…still good, but lower for both stats). Although expensive, an Indians stack is firmly in play, but Lindor also stands alone as one of the best one-offs on the slate.
7. Since 2017, Logan Morrison has a .328 ISO against fly ball pitchers, which ranks sixth-best in MLB (min. 200 PA). The players ahead of him on the list are all pretty good: Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, Mike Trout, Matt Olson, and Giancarlo Stanton. Morrison has had his issues this year, still hovering below the Mendoza line, but a matchup against fly-ball righty Dylan Bundy coupled with a bargain bin salary of $3,500 at DraftKings gives you tons of home run equity against homer-prone Dylan Bundy (1.69 HR/9 this year, sixth-highest in MLB).
8. After striking out at a 25.3 percent clip against righties from 2014 to 2017, Joc Pederson is making much more contact this year, fanning at just a 14.4 percent clip. In fact, he’s one of two players this year – joining Jose Ramirez – with a .330 ISO and a sub-15.0 percent strikeout rate to righties. The park environment isn’t ideal, as he’ll be in pitcher-friendly Angels stadium, but likely leading off and with the platoon advantage over Angels righty Felix Pena, Pederson is as good a bet as anyone to go yard.
9. Since 2017, only five players (min. 400 PA) have posted a .382 wOBA, .281 ISO, and 41.2 percent hard hits or better against right-handed pitching: J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Eric Thames, and … Matt Adams. Adams is super cheap at DraftKings at just $3,700, and even better, he’s dual eligible at both first base and outfield. His opponent on the mound, Dan Straily, has struggled against everybody this year, but in particular, he’s struggled against lefties to the tune of a .360 wOBA and 46.7 percent hard hits, not to mention a high 44.3 percent fly ball rate that spells doom against power hitters like Adams (and another National, some guy named Bryce Harper, who feasts on fly ball pitchers).
10. And of course, if you’re stacking the Nats, you’ve got to find a way to include Trea Turner, the hero from last night’s epic contest in which Washington came back to win after being down 9-0. Turner homered twice and drove in eight runs as the Nationals in the comeback win, becoming the first shortstop with two homers and eight RBI in a game since…Didi Gregorius in April of this year. Okay, not that impressive, but it was just the sixth time in MLB history a shortstop posted those numbers, with Turner now joining Gregorius, Nomar Garciaparra (who did it twice), Miguel Tejada, and Cal Ripken (okay, that’s more impressive. As of now, the Nationals are my top stack on the slate, but as with Lindor, Turner makes for a fantastic one-off if you’ve got the funds to spend up at shortstop.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from “RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool”:https://rotogrinders.com/plateiq, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Wednesday, and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!