10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, June 14th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, June 14th.
1. In his last start against the Padres, Max Scherzer struck out 9 batters, which is familiar territory for him. Since 2016, Scherzer has reached 9 punchouts 64 times; that’s 20 more than any pitcher in MLB not named Chris Sale (who has 57, with Justin Verlander coming in third at 44 such games). The big question facing DFS players on Friday, at least as far as pitching, is whether to go with the longer track record of elite strikeouts with Scherzer or the superior matchup with Gerrit Cole. While Cole has the benefit of facing the hapless Blue Jays (24.8% K rate and a 78 wRC+ that is fourth-worst in MLB against RHPs), Scherzer has to settle for a pretty favorable matchup against the D-backs (low 22.7% K rate and 90 wRC+ against RHPs). Even so, Scherzer has been a dominant strikeout pitcher for such a long, uninterrupted stretch, that he seems more likely to post a slate-winning strikeout total. Then again, Cole posted 14 strikeouts in his most recent start. See what I mean? It’s the slate’s big question, and it may be one where there simply isn’t a “wrong” answer.
2. Lucas Giolito has now posted 9+ strikeouts in four consecutive games; the only other White Sox pitchers in MLB history to achieve such a streak are Javier Vasquez (2007) and Chris Sale (2015). But this is not some isolated four-game streak; Giolito has been dominant all season, posting a 2.47 FIP that ranks second in MLB only to Max Scherzer. For comparison, Giolito’s 5.56 FIP in 2018 ranked dead last of 57 qualified pitchers. He’s been one of the best stories of the season, and on Friday, he’ll be tested by a Stanton-less and Judge-less but still potent Yankees lineup (.206 ISO and .342 wOBA against RHPs, ranked 4th and 3rd in MLB, respectively). Contextually, it makes little sense to pay up for Giolito on a slate where Scherzer and Cole can be had for only a few bucks more. In theory, this makes Giolito a fantastic tournament play, but it’s one that’ll take some serious cajones to pull the trigger on.
3. Andrew Heaney has an eye-popping 41.8 percent strikeout rate over his first three starts in 2019. Here’s a short list of pitchers – all of whom rank in the top 10 in MLB among qualifiers in K% – who haven’t put up 41.8 percent Ks over any three-game stretch this season: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Caleb Smith, Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito, Matthew Boyd, Stephen Strasburg, This is…unprecedented for Heaney.
But here’s the thing: just because it’s unprecedented doesn’t mean it’s a fluke. Heaney’s strikeouts are supported by a 19.4 percent swinging strike rate. His issue has been home runs – he’s allowed 2 in each of his three starts – which has led to an inflated 5.40 ERA. Heaney is allowing a crazy-high fly ball rate (62.9%) and tons of hard hits (48.6%); homers will always be a risk. But his 2.36 SIERA paints a prettier picture, and if he’s striking out 8-10 batters per game, you can live with a few earnies. Against a Rays team that strikes out at an MLB-high 28.3 percent clip against lefties, there should be whiffs aplenty for Heaney. He’s an elite tournament play.
4. Only two pitchers in MLB have a 25.7 percent strikeout rate and a hard-hit rate below 30 percent: Stephen Strasburg and … Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod’s results have been spotty this season, thanks in large part to an unsustainably high .347 BABIP (his career mark entering 2019 was at .292). It’s extremely unusual to run a BABIP that high with such a low hard-hit rate. Take a look at the BABIP for each of the six hitters with 30 percent hard hits or below:
Kenta Maeda – .240
Dylan Bundy – .255
Stephen Strasburg – .280
Yu Darvish – .281
Noah Syndergaard – .309
So, Rodriguez should see some positive regression, and it very well could start on Friday, as he’s in a favorable matchup against the Orioles (26.1% K rate vs. LHPs, seventh-highest in MLB). He makes a lot of sense as an SP2 at two-pitcher sites, or as a mid-range tournament option with upside.
5. It’s no secret that the Angels are a high-contact, low-strikeout team. In fact, their 16.7 percent strikeout rate is best in MLB (and if the season ended today, would be the lowest rate by any team in MLB since the 2016 Angels). But the extent to which they rob opposing pitchers of upside is worth looking at. Take a look at how often the teams with the five lowest K-rates in MLB have allowed a starter to post 7+ strikeouts:
Athletics – 15
Dodgers – 16
Twins – 14
Astros – 12
Angels – 3
That’s right: the Angels have allowed just three opposing starters to reach 7+ strikeouts, and all three times, the pitcher reached exactly 7 strikeouts. The last time an opposing starter reached the 7-strikeout threshold was Justin Verlander, way back on May 5th. Now, to be clear: they’ve never faced Blake Snell, nor his 34.5 percent K rate. Snell could post a big game, because he’s one of the best strikeout artists in the game. Given the makeup of the Angels lineup, though, it’s hard to envision a slate-breaking performance from Snell.
6. Only one batter in MLB has combined a .360+ wOBA with a strikeout rate of 10 percent or below against lefties since 2017: Jose Ramirez. (On a related note, his teammate Carlos Santana came close, with a .344 wOBA and just 9.4 percent Ks). On Friday, Ramirez not only faces a lefty; he faces a lefty in Ryan Carpenter who has an impossibly high 3.13 HR/9 allowed to right-handed hitters this year. In 23 innings against righties, Carpenter has somehow managed to allow 8 home runs while only striking out 15. Indians bats should be a priority plays in all formats, and Ramirez’s asinine $3,500 price tag at DraftKings stands out in particular. He’s a perfect low-priced-with-upside play that can free up the salary to pay up for pitching and/or a few Coors bats in cash games.
7. Speaking of Indians, consider this: over the past 30 days, only three hitters in MLB have an OPS of 1.167 or higher: Christian Yelich (1.236), Mike Trout (1.175), and … Carlos Santana (1.167). Santana is having a different kind of year in his second stint in Cleveland: he’s still rarely striking out (16.1 K%) and walking at a high clip (16.4 BB%), but his .286 average would represent a new career high, and he’s hitting for more power than ever, with 14 home runs already this year. In fact, let’s do one more fun fact. There are only four batters in MLB with more walks than strikeouts and a .240 ISO or higher: Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, and … (if you don’t know it’s Carlos Santana, you clearly don’t get how this works). At this point, there’s no way you can leave Santana out of your Indians stacks.
8. Discounting 2011 and 2019 (with sample sizes of under 50 PA), Paul Goldschmidt has posted a wOBA of .405 or higher, a hard-hit rate of 44.1 percent or higher, and a wRC+ of 147 or higher against left-handed pitching in every season of his career. Playing Goldschmidt when he’s got the platoon advantage is as easy as it gets, and on Friday, Goldschmidt is matched up against Mets lefty Steven Matz. Matz is a ground ball pitcher, but his ground ball rate – elite against left-handed batters – is merely above average against righties (47.5 percent). If we want to get even more granular, Goldschmidt has dominated sinkers, the pitch Matz throws over 55 percent of the time, with a .366 ISO and .482 wOBA against the pitch since 2016. It’s almost bizarre to see Goldschmidt priced below $4,000 at both DraftKings and FanDuel (and he feels like a near auto-play at Yahoo at just $14).
9. Since 2016, 427 pitchers have reached 70 innings against right-handed pitching; Jeff Hoffman’s 7.67 ERA against righties over that span ranks … 427th. His .400 wOBA allowed ranks … 427th. His .566 slugging ranks … 425th (dammit – there goes my perfectly symmetrical list…). It’s a small sample of 78 1/3 innings pitched, but Hoffman has shown zero ability to get same-handed hitters out throughout this short career. The Padres are going to score some runs, and it all starts with Manny Machado, whose mouth-wateringly affordable price tag across the industry (and particularly at DraftKings and Yahoo, where he costs $4,300 and $15 respectively). At DraftKings, Machado costs the same as Jason Castro! If you’re spending $15 on a third baseman at Yahoo, you’ve got your pick between Machado at Coors and Colin Moran! I can’t wait to play Machado today. Now, I’ve just got to figure out how to keep the other 99.9999999999% of DFS players from clicking his name…
10. If you’re rostering Padres (and you should be), don’t sleep on Wil Myers. Since 2016, he’s one of just four players in MLB – joining Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, and Mookie Betts – with 80 home runs and 70 steals. Where Machado is an ideal cash game play, Myers makes more sense for GPPs, for a few reasons. His strikeouts are through the roof (35.9% vs. RHPs this year). He’ll also likely be hitting 7th in the Padres order, which could suppress his ownership somewhat. But make no mistake: Myers has both power and speed, and he provides plenty of upside, and he’s a particularly great point-per-dollar play at FanDuel ($3,600).
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!