10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, May 18th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, May 18th.
Friday, May 18th
1. With a 40.4% strikeout rate for the year (second-best in MLB behind only Gerrit Cole), Max Scherzer would need to face 176 consecutive batters without recording a single strikeout to fall below the 2018 league average strikeout rate of 22.5%. And while the strikeout rate (justifiably) gets all the publicity, let’s not forget that Scherzer remains elite at the whole run prevention thing, too. In fact, his current run of 12 consecutive games of two or fewer earned runs allowed is the longest active streak in MLB, well ahead of Justin Verlander, whose eight-game streak ranks second. Even at his crazy price tag of $14,000 at DraftKings (the same price as four Matt Olsons!), Scherzer remains priority number one when building cash game lineups, no matter the matchup. When he’s at home, it’s even better. Lock him in your cash games and fit cheap bats in around him.
2. In the month of May, 10 right-handed starters have faced the Diamondbacks. Of these 10, nine allowed two or fewer earned runs, with Charlie Morton being the only to allow three. These starters have averaged 29.9% strikeouts against he D-backs. Yes, the list includes Verlander, Cole, and Scherzer; it also includes Woodruff, and Hellickson, and Chacin, and Guerra, and Roark. This is a team that is simply bad against right-handed pitching, which makes this a great “get right” spot for Jacob deGrom. There’s risk, of course; we’re talking about a pitcher whi needed 45 pitches to get through a single inning before being pulled for precautionary reasons. But with Scherzer on the board, deGrom would have never been a cash game consideration anyways. Because of the uncertainty, we get a steep discount at DraftKings at just $9,800, and even better, we get him at home, where he’s historically been much better (2.33 ERA compared to 3.46 on the road, 29.6 K% compared to 24.4% on the road). Vegas believes in deGrom, as well, as the Diamondbacks have the second-lowest implied total on the slate at just 3.04 runs. On a slate where anyone not named Scherzer is a major question mark, deGrom makes for a high-upside play for GPPs.
UPDATE: Sean Newcomb has been scratched.
3. Sean Newcomb also finds himself in an excellent matchup on Friday against the Marlins. And while Miami has been better against left-handed pitching this year (94 wRC+ ranks a respectable-for-the-Marlins 21st in MLB), their .117 ISO (ranked 29th) says this is a matchup with tons of safety. I love Newcomb so much that I couldn’t limit myself to one interesting note, so here are three:
• Newcomb has 17 games of 6+ strikeouts in his first 27 starts. That’s tied for 14th-most such games on the all-time list of pitchers in their first 27 starts. Here’s a list of prominent current and former big-leaguers who had fewer such games in their first 27 career starts: the late Jose Fernandez (16), Jacob deGrom (15), Roger Clemens (15), Nolan Ryan (14), Felix Hernandez (14). Newcomb has been relying more heavily on his changeup, giving him a three-pitch mix that has been a boon for his K rate this year.
• Newcomb has a 2.51 ERA, 26.3% hard hits, and 28.3% strikeouts; the only other pitchers to match those numbers this year are Verlander, Morton, deGrom, and Sale. Newcomb’s ERA is always going to look prettier than his estimators given his tendency to walk a batter every now and then (or two, or three, or four). But so far, he’s been able to make it work despite issuing a free pass (or two, or three or four) every now and then. I don’t think the Marlins are the team that makes him pay for his high walk rate.
• Newcomb’s 85.1 MPH aEV is fourth-best in MLB (min. 75 PA), trailing only Brent Suter, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Clevinger. If the Marlins roll out a bunch of righties (which they certainly will), we can expect a lot of weakly hit grounders.
Newcomb’s price has risen with his star power, making him impossible to use for cash games. But got tournaments, he provides serious upside and significant savings over Scherzer.
4. Blake Snell is in the midst of a breakout campaign…but you still shouldn’t play him against the Angels. They’ll likely roll out an entirely right-handed lineup, which spells trouble for Snell. Against lefties this year, Snell’s wOBA is .155; against righties, it’s .329. Against lefties, Snell’s strikeout rate is an elite 31.5%; against righties, it drops to 23.7%. Against lefties, Snell has shown excellent control, with a 4.3% walk rate; against righties, that number rises above league average, to 9.2%. In other words, a lot of the gains Snell has made over the last year have been aided by his utter dominance of left-handed hitters, and that’s an advantage he will not have in this matchup. The price tag looks nice, but don’t take the bait.
5. In six games since April 15th, Homer Bailey has allowed 11 home runs. He has 17 strikeouts over that span. Just let that sink in for a bit…
This is a “Don’t Overthink It” spot, and the Cubs are one of the top teams to stack in an excellent matchup in Great American Ball Park. I suspect that at least a few Cubs will honor Homer’s name and go deep.
6. Here’s the complete list of all-time Red Sox hitters with more extra-base hits in their first 548 games than Mookie Betts’s 266: Ted Williams (304) and Nomar Garciaparra (293). Last night, Betts didn’t even need to hit for extra bases, as he singled three times and swiped three bags. He can put up points in so many ways, and he virtually never strikes out (just an 11.2 K% for the year), Betts is fast developing into the premiere cash game option at hitter every single night, at least from a skills perspective. From a pricing perspective, it’s another story, and Betts is very tough to squeeze into cash lineups when paying $14,000 for an SP1.
7. Josh Donaldson is one of three players (joining Trevor Story and Giancarlo Stanton) to post a .300 ISO, .400 wOBA, and 40% hard hits against lefties since 2015. One of the older truisms in DFS is “Play Josh Donaldson Against Lefties.” And it exists for a reason: he mashes them, and he has for years, and odds are, he will on Friday in a great matchup at home against the Athletics’ Brett Anderson. On a weak slate for third basemen, Donaldson is a clear spend-up spot.
8. Matt Olson has a .363 ISO against fly ball pitchers since entering the league in 2017; the only hitters with a high ISO (min. 100 PA) since 2017 are Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, and Bryce Harper. He homered off Aaron Sanchez last night (which makes three homers in his last four games), and he’s in an even better spot on Friday. On top of that, at DraftKings, he’s priced in the bargain bin at just $3,500, alongside guys like Jeffrey Marte and Niko Goodrum. If Olson doesn’t homer, there’s a decent chance he scores zero points, but in this matchup, at this price, that’s a chance I’m willing to take, even in cash games.
9. The MLB leader in hard hit rate over the past 30 days is, unsurprisingly, the aforementioned Matt Olson (56.5%). The player in second is a bit more interesting; it’s Andrew McCutchen. On the season, McCutchen’s hard hits are up nearly 13 percentage points over last season’s mark. And we’re not talking hard hit grounders into the shift here, either; his line drive rate is up nearly six percentage points over his 2017 mark. While the results haven’t been there – his .146 ISO represents a career low – one has to think that good things are bound to happen if he keeps hitting hard liners in spacious AT&T Park. He’s matched up against Kyle Freeland on Friday, and while Freeland has made improvements this year, McCutchen’s $3,500 price tag at DraftKings makes him an excellent outfield play for your cash games.
10. Tyler Flowers is an underrated hitter. Since 2016, he’s one of four catchers with a .350 wOBA, joining Willson Contreras, Buster Posey, and Gary Sanchez. Here’s the fun part: he’s the only one of those four hitters with a hard-hit rate north of 40.0%. Perpetually underpriced and costing just $2,800 at DraftKings, Flowers is in a great spot at home against Dan Straily, who isn’t missing any bats since his return (12.9% K rate in three starts this year).
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Friday throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!