10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Friday, May 3rd
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Friday, May 3rd.
1. In their matchup with Yankees left-hander James Paxton, the Twins will likely roll out a lineup full of right-handed batters. But have no fear: Paxton has a long history of handling righties just fine. In fact, he’s posted a 31.0 percent strikeout rate and allowed just a .272 wOBA to righties since 2017; the only other pitchers who can make that claim (min. 200 IP) are Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Sale. The only factor that prevents Paxton from being in the conversation with the aforementioned pitchers is his health, and luckily, he’s healthy right now. That’s all that matters in DFS. Well, it’s not all that matters. Matchups matter, and Paxton has a tough one against a Twins team that leads MLB with a .248 ISO against lefties. Ballparks matter, and Paxton is pitching in Yankee Stadium, the park that allows homers in bunches (per Baseball Prospectus’ park factors, Yankee Stadium’s HR rating of 114 was tied for third-highest in MLB last year). If ownership looks to get out of control, both of those are reasons to go lighter on Paxton and lean heavily on Clayton Kershaw, or Tyler Glasnow, or Matt Boyd, or Chris Sale, or even one of the interesting mid-tier arms (Jerad Eickhoff? Shane Bieber? Sonny Gray?). There’s a lot to like at pitching today, but even so, Paxton’s strikeout upside pushes him to the top of the group.
2. In 141 1/3 innings pitched as a member of the Pirates, Tyler Glasnow posted a 13.9 percent walk rate; in 91 2/3 innings pitched as a member of the Rays, Glasnow has essentially chopped that walk rate in half, at 7.2 percent. The 6’8” right-hander has harnessed the tantalizing yet unpredictable stuff that made him such a promising prospect, and now, he’s throwing in the zone 50.3 percent of the time, the fifth-best mark in MLB. It’s not only control, though; he’s also throwing his devastating curveball more this year, up to 25.6 percent (18.9 in 2018). It’s a pitch he uses to generate ground balls, and he’s getting them at a 72.7 percent clip on the pitch this year, third-most of any pitcher’s curve this year (min. 100 pitches). On Friday, Glasnow gets a plus matchup against an Orioles team that has been masquerading as halfway competent this year, with a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Camden Yards can present problems for pitchers, but Glasnow should have no trouble racking up strikeouts and limiting the damage against the O’s. Vegas agrees, as – even on a slate with Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, and James Paxton – Glasnow is installed as the highest favorite of the day at -230. Roll him out with confidence in all formats.
3. Matt Boyd games of 9+ strikeouts over six starts in 2019: 3
Matt Boyd games of 9+ strikeouts over 86 starts prior to 2019: 2
Boyd has propelled himself into the conversation as one of the better strikeout artists in the game this season, and in fact, only Carlos Rodon has improved his strikeout rate more than Boyd’s 9.4 percent increase from last season (22.4% in 2018; 31.8% in 2019). No pitcher has increased his swinging-strike rate as much as Boyd, who has jumped from 10.2 percent swinging strikes in 2018 to 15.6 percent in 2019. Amidst the obvious strikeout improvements, it’s easy to miss that Boyd has made another improvement in his game; he’s limited the extreme fly balls that led to a high 1.43 HR/9 in 2018. He’s shaved nearly 10 percentage points off his fly ball rate (49.9% in 2018; 40.2% in 2018), which, if it holds (admittedly a big “if” still this early in the season), would allow Boyd to limit the damage in addition to piling up strikeouts. There’s little to worry about in his Friday start, as he takes on a Royals team that ranks in the bottom third of MLB in team wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against lefties and fans at a healthy 24.8 percent clip. If Boyd continues along this path, we’ll soon pine for the days when he was priced this cheaply.
4. Sonny Gray has shaved 1.15 points off his SIERA from 2018 to 2019 (4.28 in 2018; 3.13 in 2019); that’s the biggest SIERA improvement of any pitcher in MLB this year (min. 20 IP). What’s the cause of Gray’s return to fantasy relevance? For one thing, he’s found a way to combine high strikeouts with plenty of ground balls, which is usually a recipe for success. Gray is the only pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg to marry a strikeout rate north of 30 percent while inducing 50 percent ground balls. And while there’s some reason to believe the strikeouts will come down (it’s really difficult to sustain that many strikeouts with a 9.3 percent swinging-strike rate), Gray should be able to stave off regression for at least one more start. That’s because on Friday, he faces the hapless Giants, owners of an MLB-worst .273 team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Gray’s price is moderate across the industry ($8,000 at FanDuel; $8,200 at DraftKings), and he represents a safe, high-floor option with some upside given the excellent matchup.
5. Kyle Gibson gets whiffs on 54 percent of swings against his slider; that’s fourth-best in MLB, better than the elite sliders of guys like Scherzer, Archer, Marquez, and Corbin to name a few. He just…needs to throw it more. Gibson throws the pitch 21.5 percent of the time, a mark that ranks 79th in MLB (min. 250 pitches). True, not everyone is Patrick Corbin or Matt Boyd; increasing the usage of a pitch may allow hitters to see it better, and it’s possible that Gibson’s offering is so good in part because he saves it for key spots. He’s strictly a salary saver, and a risky one at that, but he is in play against a depleted Yankees lineup. Until (and if he ever) starts leaning more on his slider, the six strikeouts he’s posted in each of his last two games represents his realistic upside. At just $6,700 at DraftKings, he’s priced low enough that he’ll allow you to search for upside with bats, maybe even rostering some…
6. Diamondbacks, who on Friday open a series at Coors Field against left-hander Tyler Anderson. Everyone knows the drill: if you can, you play hitters at Coors. So rather than diving deep, let’s do a few quick D-backs notes:
— Only one player in MLB has a .400 wOBA with less than 12 percent strikeout against lefties since 2018: Ketel Marte.
— Christian Walker has 14 barrels, tied for ninth-most in MLB. That’s just one fewer than Cody Bellinger and more than guys like Khris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, and Javier Baez. Quietly, Walker is breaking out.
— Wilmer Flores is one of only two hitters since 2015 (min. 300 PA) to post a .230 ISO and a sub-12.0 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers; the other is reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts. He’s actually quite affordable across the industry ($3,000 at FanDuel; $4,400 at DraftKings).
7. On the other side of the game, let’s talk about a non-Arenado, non-Story Coors hitter. No batter has cut his ground ball rate from 2018 to 2019 more than Ian Desmond (62.0% in 2018; 40.6% in 2019). I mean, let’s be real: it hasn’t led to results yet. Desmond has an impossibly low wRC+ of 42 for the year, which places him 170th of 179 qualified hitters, just ahead of the recently-optioned Mallex Smith. On the other hand, Desmond’s .259 BABIP on a career-high 38.6% hard hits is equally fluky. If he continues to elevate (which is almost a guarantee since his launch angle has literally been 0.0 degrees each of the past two years), and if he continues to hit the ball hard (which he is – his 12.9% barrel rate is almost double the 7.0% rate from 2018), Desmond should be able to produce, particularly when he’s at elevation in his home park. In recent years, rostering Ian Desmond in DFS has been about as fun as, oh I don’t know, watching Ian Desmond hit a baseball. He’s a nice salary saver, though, in a home matchup with the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray.
8. J.D. Martinez HR/FB rate over the past three seasons:
2017: 33.8%
2018: 29.5%
2019: 10.3%
For context, Cesar Hernandez had a 10.2% HR/FB rate in 2018, so either J.D. Martinez’s up and vanished over the offseason, or number will rise. Martinez is striking out less than last season (22.5% in 2018; 13.7% in 2019); his average exit velocity is 92.8 mph, 0.2 points below last year’s 93.0 mph mark; his launch angle has increased to 13.4 degrees from 10.8 degrees; his expected batting average, slugging, and wOBA are all higher than his actual numbers for those metrics. This is as clear a case as you’ll see of simple bad luck. Now, he’s just $4,400 at DraftKings and just $3,900 at FanDuel. The matchup with Reynaldo Lopez would have looked much better a few weeks ago, as Lopez has fanned 8 and 14 batters in his past two starts while allowing only two earned runs. It’s worth noting that both of those starts came against the strikeout-happy Tigers, though, a far cry from the Red Sox team Lopez will be tasked with on Friday. Martinez is simply too cheap to ignore, making him one of the better values on the slate.
9. Steven Matz throws his sinker 61.8 percent of the time, third-most of any starter in MLB (min. 250 pitches). Jesus Aguilar has a .450 wOBA against sinkers since 2018. That’s not bad at all, especially where Aguilar is priced across the industry ($2,900 at FanDuel; $3,800 at DraftKings; $10 at Yahoo). With three homers and seven runs batted in over his past three games, Aguilar may have broken out of the prolonged slump he was in for much of April. With the platoon edge against Matz, he represents one of the better point-per-dollar plays of the slate.
10. Don’t sleep on Aguilar’s teammate Lorenzo Cain, either. Since 2015, Cain is one of just three hitters in MLB (min. 200 PA) with a .390 wOBA and a sub-13.0 percent strikeout rate against lefties, along with Ozzie Albies and Jose Altuve. So, he puts the ball in play all the time, and he gets on base nearly 40 percent of the time against southpaws; that’s all good. But against Matz, Cain also has some hidden stolen base upside. Since 2016, Matz has allowed 58 steals, fifth-most in MLB. In tournaments, a mini-stack of Aguilar, Cain, and Ryan Braun is affordable, carries plenty of upside, and should come at reduced ownership given the likely high ownership of the Coors Field game.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!