10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 10th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, July 10th.
1. Madison Bumgarner has had a historically good first half, posting a 2.09 ERA to go with 132 strikeouts against just 31 walks. The only players to match or better each of those numbers in the first half of any season in the Live Ball Era (since 1920) are Clayton Kershaw (this year), Pedro Martinez (1999 and 2000), Denny McClain (1968), and Sandy Koufax (1966). Bumgarner is one of only two bona fide aces taking the hill on Sunday (along with David Price), and it’s a Coors slate, which means DFS players have some difficult decisions to make.
2. In 129 innings pitched at home in 2015, Dallas Keuchel allowed 21 earned runs and four home runs. In 44 1/3 innings pitched at home in 2016, Dallas Keuchel has allowed…21 earned runs and four home runs. Unlike his teammate Lance McCullers, Keuchel has a below-average strikeout rate and doesn’t possess the K upside to cover his mistakes, especially against an Oakland team that, as a rule, just doesn’t strike out (17.7 K% against lefties, second-lowest rate in MLB).
3. David Price has allowed at least one homer and four earned runs in all four of his starts against Tampa Bay since the start of 2015. His career 6.52 ERA against his former team is his highest ERA against any team he’s played more than once.
4. Speaking of one-homer, four-earned-run games by pitchers, if Cody Reed gives up one home run and four or more earned runs on Sunday, he’ll be the first starter in MLB history to start his career with five such games. Cincinnati’s rookie lefty has been extremely vulnerable to right-handed power, giving up seven home runs in 83 righties faced – that’s roughly one home run every 11 batters faced. Given how much Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna disappointed on Saturday, it might be time to go back to the well on Sunday.
5. If you are stacking Marlins, don’t leave out lefty Christian Yelich. Except for closer Tony Cingrani, the Reds bullpen is (still) all righties, and it’s (still) awful. Yelich can hold his own against lefties (.360 OBP this year), and if the Marlins score as many runs as expected, Yelich will still get his share of at-bats with the platoon advantage. But here’s the interesting Yelich note: Christian Yelich has a .463 slugging over the past calendar year…with only eight home runs. Since 1950, only four players (min. 600 PA) have had full seasons of .463 slugging and eight or fewer home runs, and three of them are Hall of Famers – Rod Carew (1973), Wade Boggs (1983, 1985, 1986, 1988), Tony Gwynn (1987), and non-HOFer Freddy Sanchez (2006).
6. Gio Gonzalez is one of four pitchers in the last calendar year to strike out a batter per nine and allow fewer than 15 home runs (minimum 150 innings pitched) – the others are Jake Arrieta, Jose Fernandez, and Clayton Kershaw.
7. In 236 career plate appearances against ground ball pitchers, Kris Bryant has a .449 on-base percentage. That mark ranks third in MLB among players with at least as many plate appearances against ground ballers as him, trailing only Matt Carpenter (.452) and Paul Goldschmidt (.460). Bryant looks to add to his National League-leading 25 home runs as he takes on Jon Niese, the Pirates’ ground ball lefty who has allowed 16 homers to righties this year, the second-most in MLB.
8. Francisco Lindor was supposed to be passable as a hitter when the Indians called him up last year. But he’s been much, much better. In the past calendar year, he’s put up a .320/.368/.495 slash line, and only two players in MLB have bested each leg of that slash line – Jose Altuve (.337/.392/.529) and David Ortiz (.331/.416/.685).
9. The Twins/Rangers game in Texas on Sunday will do its best to keep up with Coors, opening with a 10.5 O/U. With Minnesota lefty Tommy Milone (.368 wOBA allowed to RHB in 2016) taking the hill, here are two quick notes on Rangers righties worth targeting on Sunday. 1.) Ian Desmond is the only player in MLB with 25 home runs and 25 steals in the past calendar year, and 2.) Since the start of 2015, Adrian Beltre is the only player in MLB with a wOBA above .390 and a strikeout rate below 11.0% against lefties (.394 wOBA, 10.2 K%).
10. In the past calendar year, two players have recorded 10 singles, 10 doubles, 10 triples, 10 home runs, and 10 stolen bases. One is White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton, who is in a premier spot on Sunday against the Braves’ Mike Foltynewicz. The other is…leave your guess in the comments thread! I’ll give a shoutout in the next “10 Notes” article to the first person who gets it right (I know – lame prize. Sorry.).
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. With the All-Star break around the corner, we’ll have no DFS for the next few days, which means this will be the last “10 Notes” article until next Saturday. Best of luck on Sunday, and enjoy the rare chance to breathe and take a break from DFS!