10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 15th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, July 15th.
1. In his eight starts since his return from the disabled list on June 1st, Corey Kluber has been (almost literally) unhittable. Take a look at his eight-game rolling contact rate for his entire career:
Since June 1st, Kluber has fanned 39.8% of batters he faces, which is supported by an insane 18.3% swinging strike rate. On Saturday, he’s got elite strikeout upside against an Oakland team that strikes out at a 25.6% clip against righties. The big question tonight appears to be “Kluber or Scherzer”? I’m siding with Kluber. Sure, the Athletics have power against righties (.197 ISO, fifth-best in MLB), but so does Scherzer’s opponent, the Reds (.191, 10th-best), and Kluber has the benefit of pitching in Oakland Alameda Coliseum, which is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, while Scherzer finds himself at Great American Ball Park, one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball.
2. Alex Wood has a 63.5% ground ball rate this year, second-highest in MLB among pitchers who have logged 80 innings; his opponent, the Miami Marlins, have a 54.9% ground ball rate against left-handed pitchers, the highest rate in all of baseball. Wood’s insane 15.2% hard hit rate against lefties means he should easily be able to neutralize the likes of Justin Bour and Christian Yelich. As long as he keeps Giancarlo Stanton (.346 ISO vs. ground ball pitchers in 2017) and Marcell Ozuna (.345 ISO vs. ground ball pitchers in 2017) from elevating a two-seam fastball, Wood should stay out of trouble. While he doesn’t have the ceiling of Kluber or Scherzer, it’s hard to find a pitcher with a safer floor than Wood these days.
3. Jameson Taillon is one of six pitchers since 2016 with a 51.3% ground ball rate and 24.9% strikeout rate against righties (min. 90 IP), and he’s in good company; he joins Lance McCullers, Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Nola, Carlos Martinez, and Luis Severino on that list. The days of the Matt Carpenter being the sole lefty in the Cardinals lineup are over (yesterday, left-hander Kolten Wong and switch-hitter Dexter Fowler cracked the lineup). Even so, St. Louis has a righty-heavy lineup, and Taillon has proven dominant against same-handed hitters. He hasn’t historically had elite strikeout upside, but over the past three games, he’s raised his strikeout rate to 27.8%, the highest of any three-game stretch in his career. In a good-not-great matchup at home, he makes for a safe, if unspectacular SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. Either way, it’s worth monitoring his strikeouts, and if they continue at this rate, adjusting our strikeout expectations.
4. In his last three starts, Jake Arrieta has a 14.0% hard hit rate; only Alex Wood (7.7%) has allowed fewer hard hits during that span. Sure, it’s an extremely small sample, but Arrieta has struggled so mightily this season that any sign of progress is welcome. And what’s more, he’s also appeared to fix the low uncharacteristically ground ball rates that plagued him early in the year. Take a look at the his rolling three-game batted ball profile, including ground balls and hard hits:
Arrieta has burned DFS players plenty this season, but his price tag has decreased to the point that, assuming these recent changes in batted balls are real and not variance, he’s underpriced relative to his talent (he’s the 18th-most-expensive arm at DraftKings!). Despite some big bats, Baltimore has been a below average offense against righties this year (94 wRC+), and they strike out at a high 22.6% rate. He’s far from a cash game play these days, but Arrieta makes for a fine SP2 in a revenge spot (“You traded me for … Scott Feldman) against his former team.
5. Mike Pelfrey has some of the crazier batted ball splits you’ll see. Against lefties: 37.8% ground balls. Against righties: 58.1% ground balls. Against lefties: 42.3% fly balls. Against righties: 25.0% fly balls. Against lefties: 36.6% hard hits. Against righties: 23.4% hard hits. Like yesterday, Mariners lefties (Cano, Seager, Gamel) are firmly in play (and they may even have low ownership after all except for Cano underwhelmed in a mega-chalk spot last night). Stay away from the righties, unless you’re planning on their taking advantage of the bullpen that has the highest xFIP (4.99) in baseball.
6. Here are Kris Bryant’s strikeout rates and swinging strike rates against left-handed pitchers by year:
| Year | K% vs. LHP | SwStr% vs. LHP |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 36.5% | 20.7% |
| 2016 | 19.4% | 12.3% |
| 2017 | 16.7% | 8.3% |
This is not a surprising stat, by any means, but it is a noteworthy one. Bryant has evolved as a power hitter with tons of swing-and-miss to a high-contact hitter with tons of power. Against the low strikeouts (18.8 K%) of Wade Miley, Bryant is one of the top overall plays of the day.
7. After last night’s 10-run barrage against the Twins, the Astros have reached double-digits in runs in five of nine games in the month of July; that’s more games of 10+ runs than the Giants, Reds, Phillies, Athletics, Royals, Blue Jays, and Padres have for the entire season. (Apologies to my Twitter followers for the recycled stat). The Astros have an excellent matchup against Ervin Santana, who has been hit hard by regression as of late. Early in the year, Santana looked like an ace due to an unsustainably low BABIP, but this is what regression to the mean looks like:
Santana has been able to limit the hard contact all year (even during his recent rough stretch), and he’s fairly splits neutral. But with the second-highest implied run total of the day (5.07 runs), and on a day with enough good pitching to limit elite hitting spots, all the Astros are in play.
8. In his last start, Paul Blackburn did something remarkable; he went 7 ⅔ innings and allowed just one earned run, yet he failed to strike out a single batter. No pitcher had done that since R.A. Dickey on May 4, 2015. Blackburn is a pitcher who hasn’t reached an 18.0%+ strikeout rate since low A ball, and that, combined with Cleveland’s low 19.5% strikeout rate, says the Indians are going to put a lot of balls are going to be put into play. The Athletics have the worst defense in MLB, according to FanGraphs’ defensive metrics, which means balls in play should equate to big fantasy points. Despite their low implied run total of 4.41 runs, don’t be afraid to stack up Cleveland. In particular, take a look at…
9. Jose Ramirez, who is the only qualified hitter in MLB with a sub-11.0% K rate and a .300+ ISO against right-handed pitching this year. It may be hard to fit him in for cash games if you’re rostering Kluber or Scherzer, but the fact that he’s priced through the roof could actually work in his favor and make Ramirez lower-owned for tournaments.
10. Corey Dickerson’s hard hit rate has dropped in each month this season: he went from a stellar 35.7% mark in April, to 35.1% in May, to 34.2% in June, to 28.6% in July. He’s also striking out at a 32.4% clip this month (his highest in any calendar month since June of 2015). His price tag is plummeting, and he looks like a bargain every day. But whether it’s just a slump, or whether it’s injury-related, it’s becoming harder and harder to click his name. If there was ever a “get right” matchup for Dickerson, it could be tonight against the Angels’ J.C. Ramirez, whose 45.8% hard hit rate against lefties is third-worst of 102 qualified pitchers.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
Follow Josh Cole on Twitter, where I post interesting stats whenever I dig them up!