10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 31st
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Monday, July 31st.
1. Luis Severino has a 9.44 K/9 or better in all four calendar months of the 2017 season; the only other qualified starters who can say that are Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Everybody knows about Severino’s electric stuff and immense upside, but what sometimes flies under the radar is how consistent he’s been all year. To further illustrate this point, consider that Severino is one of eight pitchers with 13 games of 20+ DraftKings points this year, and the players he’s joined by are players who DFS players almost always feel comfortable rostering (Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw, Kluber, Archer, deGrom, Greinke). Severino has been particularly dominant against right-handed hitters this year, posting a 30.1% strikeout rate (seventh-best among qualified pitchers), a 56.7% ground ball rate (eighth-best), and 26.5% hard hit rate (13th-best). This is significant, because on Monday, he faces the righty-dominant lineup of the Detroit Tigers. There is danger here, as the Tigers have a 40.5% hard hit rate against righties (by far the best in MLB, with the second-place coming in at 35.8%), and they’re getting a major park upgrade to Yankee Stadium. Even so, it’s a sketchy day for pitching, and Severino checks all the boxes as an elite play in both cash games and tournaments.
2. One more Severino note: his best pitch against right-handed hitters — and one that he throws 43.8% of the time against them — is his slider, a pitch against which he’s managed just a .194 xwOBA and a .045 ISO. This year, the Detroit Tigers have a .113 ISO against right-handed sliders, which ranks 29th in MLB; only the Cubs (.086) have been worse against that pitch.
3. Prior to 2017, Charlie Morton had never had more than two games of 8+ strikeouts in a season; this year, with two months of baseball left, he’s got five such games. That includes his last start, in which he dominated the Phillies, recording nine strikeouts over seven scoreless frames against the Phillies. Morton, a one-time low-strikeout groundball specialist who has transformed himself into a strikeout pitcher (and a much more fun one to roster in DFS), has a tougher matchup in store on Monday against a Rays team that ranks in the top seven in MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year. Even so, it’s a high-strikeout lineup that has recently added even more strikeouts with the additions of Lucas Duda (22.2% K rate vs. RHP) and Trevor Plouffe (25.0%) and the return of Brad Miller (27.0%). Just as with Severino, this is a risky spot, but Morton’s good-enough ground balls combined with his newfound strikeout ability should be able to overcome this boom-or-bust Rays lineup.
4. Among pitchers who have logged at least 70 innings, Mike Clevinger has allowed the third-lowest amount of contact, with a 68.8% contact rate – the pitchers ahead of him in that metric are Corey Kluber (66.3%) and Chris Sale (68.6%). The Red Sox are a high-contact team, which could offset Clevinger’s rare ability to miss bats, but as of late, Boston just hasn’t been a dangerous lineup. In fact, over the last 30 days, they rank 29th in wOBA (.284), 29th in ISO (.120), and dead last in wRC+ (69) against right-handed pitching. And what’s more, they’ve been striking out more, with a high (for them) 21.5% K rate over the past 30 days. Clevinger won’t break any strikeout records in this game, but his modest price tag across the industry factors this in. It’s never fun rostering pitchers against Boston, but there are so few viable arms with any amount of upside that Clevinger makes sense as an SP2 in cash games or tournaments.
5. Ubaldo Jimenez has been so bad against lefties that, in order to bring his MLB-high .632 slugging down to the league average rate (.431), he would need to retire 85 consecutive left-handers without allowing a hit. This bodes very well for Royals lefties like Mike Moustakas, Brandon Moss, and…
6. Eric Hosmer, who, since May 1st, is one of three players with a .400+ wOBA, .200+ ISO, and strikeout rate below 17.0%, and the other two players on that list are pretty good – they’re Jose Altuve and Joey Votto. Hosmer is rarely a favorite target of DFS players because of his high ground ball rate (and most of the time, that’s justified, as his 53.3% ground ball rate is highest among qualified first basemen). But the “no upside” label Hosmer is saddled with is an overstatement. During this stretch (since May 1st), Hosmer has 15 home runs, which is as many as Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista, and Mookie Betts, and more home runs than Brian Dozier, Matt Carpenter, and Kyle Seager. Granted, most of these players do not play first base, where every day there is a wealth of high-upside power bats. But on Monday, there’s no question of Hosmer’s upside against Ubaldo Jimenez. And for those who care, Hosmer has BvP working in his favor, as he’s gone 11-for-30 with two home runs and just five strikeouts in 30 at-bats against Jimenez in his career.
7. As long as we’re Ubaldo-bashing, it’s worth noting that he’s allowed 40 stolen bases since 2016, tied for third-most in MLB (he trails Noah Syndergaard with 49 and Jimmy Nelson with 42). The player he’s tied with is Jon Lester, who literally can’t throw to first base (or maybe he can?). Whit Merrifield and Lorenzo Cain are a combined 33-for-36 in stolen base attempts this year. Both of them should be a part of every Royals stack, and their stolen base upside makes them excellent one-offs for tournaments.
8. There are 70 pitchers who have logged 100 innings against left-handed hitters since 2016. Doug Fister (not Ubaldo, surprisingly) has the highest wOBA at .405, the third-lowest strikeout rate at 13.4%, the third-highest HR/9 at 1.9 (just ahead of James Shields and Ubaldo), the second-highest xFIP at 5.77 (ahead of only Shields), and the ninth-highest Hard% at 36.9%. While the Royals against Ubaldo and the Blue Jays against James Shields will garner a lot of attention (and deservedly so), Indians lefties like Bradley Zimmer, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Santana make for an excellent stack in tournaments. Against lefties, Fister is as much of a gas can as Jimenez and Shields, yet he’s not often mentioned as a pitcher DFS players love attacking. Perhaps it’s because of Fister’s craftiness against right-handed batters, against whom he has an elite .277 wOBA, 52.4% ground ball rate, and 24.6% hard hit rate (in other words – leave the Cleveland righties alone).
9. In 98 at-bats that ended against a left-handed changeup since 2015, Nelson Cruz has a .430 xwOBA, second only to Miguel Cabrera (.485). The changeup has historically been Cole Hamels’ best pitch, so the fact that it’s given Cruz no trouble means the “Play Nelson Cruz Against Lefties” mantra is fully in play on Monday, despite Hamels’ name recognition. While Hamels has long been a pitcher best avoided, he’s struggled this year, and closer look at his 2017 numbers reveals a 14.1% strikeout rate and 38.8% hard hits against righties. Cruz and the Mariners get a major ballpark upgrade, and with temperatures again expected to be in the 90s in Texas, Cruz is as good a bet as anybody on Monday’s slate to go yard.
10. In his first seven years in MLB, Yonder Alonso averaged one home run every 53.9 at-bats (39 home runs in 2,103 at-bats); after homering again last night, Alonso is averaging a home run every 14.1 at-bats in 2017 (22 home runs in 310 at-bats). He’s made a concerted effort to lift the ball more this year, and with a 46.0% fly ball rate against righties, he’s an interesting play if you’re home run hunting against Matt Cain and his high .359 wOBA against lefties this year. It is worth noting that Alonso’s fly ball rate has dipped to 31.5% in July after being at 49.0% in April, 57.1% in May, and 46.9% in June. Even so, Alonso is cheap enough across the industry that he makes sense as a cash game play in order to fit in Severino and a few other big bats (Royals!).
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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