10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 6th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Thursday, July 6th.
1. Prior to this season, only one pitcher (min. 60 IP) had had a first half by strikeout out more than 12 batters per nine and walking fewer than two batters per nine: Pedro Martinez (1999, 2001). This year, two pitchers are doing it, and one of them – Chris Sale – is pitching on Thursday’s slate. Sale’s otherworldly strikeout ability overshadows the fact that he’s among the best in the game at limiting free passes. But the low walks means that even if he gives up a home run or two (which he could today, against a Rays team with some dangerous power bats), he’ll put up an elite fantasy point total. The Rays strike out at the second-highest rate in MLB against southpaws (26.5%), and Sale has already reached 10+ strikeouts twice against them this season. On a slate deep in quality pitching, Sale is in a tier all his own.
2. Lance McCullers’ signature pitch is his curveball, which he’s throwing much more often than any other qualified starter in MLB at 46.1% (Drew Pomeranz is a distant second at 39.5%). His matchup with Toronto is far from ideal, but it helps to know that the Blue Jays are below average at hitting curveballs, ranking 27th in wOBA (.210), 26th in ISO (0.99), and dead last in batting average (.164 – but come on, nobody uses batting average in DFS). McCullers is also on the road, which used to be a good reason to fade him. While he’s still been better at home this year, his 26.9% strikeout rate, 59.5% ground ball rate, .262 wOBA allowed, and 24.1% hard contact rate are more than enough to consider him a strong play on the road.
3. Jacob Faria has started his career with five consecutive quality starts, notching at least five strikeouts in each contest; he’s the third player since 2000 to do so, joining Masahiro Tanaka in 2014 (14 straight such games) and Josh Beckett in 2001. Faria has been remarkably steady, but he faces perhaps his stiffest test on Thursday against a high-contact Red Sox team that has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at 18.6%. He probably doesn’t have the upside necessary at FanDuel, but the case for Faria at two-pitcher sites rests in his price tag: at just $8,300 at DraftKings and $16,000 at FantasyDraft, Faria provides an avenue to some high-end bats on Thursday.
4. Take a look at the following table, which shows 2017 hard hit rates against right-handed batters. The first three rows feature pitchers known for being elite at limiting hard contact. Then try to guess the player in the fourth row.
| Player | Hard% vs. RHB |
|---|---|
| Alex Wood | 26.5% |
| Lance McCullers | 24.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | 21.7% |
| ??? | 18.8% |
Who’s the mystery player? It’s Jose Berrios, whose 18.8% hard hit rate against righties is best in MLB this year (min. 30 IP). He’s no slouch in the strikeout department, either, fanning 29.4% of right-handed hitters he’s faced this year, which should play well against Baltimore’s high 22.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Against a Baltimore Orioles offense that will likely include only one lefty (Seth Smith), Berrios is an excellent tournament option.
5. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a .402 wOBA, a .273 ISO, and a 153 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last month; all of those are the best marks in baseball over that stretch. They also have the fifth-highest walk rate during that span, at 11.5 percent. All of this adds up to a sneaky poor matchup for Robbie Ray, who has issued four or more walks in his last four starts. As always, the strikeout upside is there with Ray, but the lack of command coupled with his 40.2% hard hit rate against righties (and the Dodgers have plenty of righties these days) says Ray is strictly a tournament play.
6. Dinelson Lamet has four games of 8+ strikeouts and three or fewer earned runs allowed in his first seven as a major leaguer; in all of MLB history, Stephen Strasburg, with five, is the only player with more such games in his first seven. (Six other players, including Nolan Ryan, Kerry Wood, and Masahiro Tanaka, have done it four times). Flying under the radar amidst all the hype about Lamet’s strikeouts is the fact that he’s allowed 50% fly balls or higher and 39.6% hard hits or higher to both righties and lefties (in a small sample, of course). The Indians are the perfect offense to exploit Lamet, whose strikeout rate drops from 39.0% against righties to 25.3% against lefties. Cleveland features a slew of lefties with elite contact skills against righties, including Jose Ramirez (10.6 K%), Michael Brantley (13.8 K%), and Francisco Lindor (13.8 K%).
7. George Springer is homering once every 8.67 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season. While we can’t expect his absurd 39.1% HR/FB rate to continue, he’s an elite option any time he faces a southpaw. Francisco Liriano, who has been getting torched by righties this year to the tune of a .370 wOBA and 35.5% hard hits, certainly qualifies.
8. Over the last calendar year, Daniel Murphy has 78 extra-base hits…and just 54 strikeouts. He’s one of five players with more extra-base hits than strikeouts since June 5th, 2016 (joining Votto, Betts, Beltre, and Jose Ramirez), and on Thursday, he has the platoon edge against Atlanta righty Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz throws two-seam and four-seam fastballs to opposing lefties over 65 percent of the time, and Murphy has a .464 wOBA against those two pitches dating back to 2016, which is third-best in MLB, trailing only Votto (.473) and Freddie Freeman (.469).
9. Matt Kemp is one of two players since 2016 with .280 ISO, a sub-18.0% K rate, and a 35.0% hard hit rate against lefties (min. 160 PA) – the other is noted lefty masher Nolan Arenado. Kemp’s price tag is way too low across the industry, making him a plug-and-play for cash games in a matchup with Gio Gonzalez, who allows high fly balls (40.6%) and hard hits (35.4%) against right-handed batters. On a side note, if you’re stacking Braves, be sure to avoid the lefties against Gonzalez: he’s allowed just three home runs in his last 586 left-handed batters faced (0.20 HR/9).
10. On Thursday, the Minnesota Twins square off against the high fly ball rate of Dylan Bundy (49.3% FB rate to LHB, 44.6% to RHB). That’s just fine with Max Kepler, who, throughout his career, has been far better against fly ball pitchers, as evidenced by the 166-point difference in his OPS marks between fly ball pitchers and ground ball pitchers (.808 career OPS vs. fly ball pitchers, .642 career OPS vs. ground ball pitchers). Teammate Robbie Grossman’s career numbers are even more pronounced (.798 career OPS vs. FB, .619 against GB). Pairing these two with the obvious power of Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano makes for a nice stack on Thursday’s main slate.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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