10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 4th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, June 4, 2016.
1. It doesn’t get any better than this. Clayton Kershaw, the pitcher who, at home, has the lowest ERA (2.03), the highest K% (28.8%), and the lowest batting average allowed (.194) in MLB history (min. 500 IP at home), against the Atlanta Braves, whose .255 wOBA, .081 ISO, and 56 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year all rank last in MLB, placing them in a tier all by themselves in terms of ineptitude against southpaws. In seven career games against the Braves, Kershaw has done pretty much what you’d expect – the 1.69 ERA, the .19 HR/9, the 64 strikeouts against just 11 walks are all pretty Kershaw-esque. One curious note, though: despite his dominance, Kershaw has earned just two wins against the Braves.
2. In the past calendar year, only Jake Arrieta (21.6 Hard%) has a lower hard-contact rate than Houston’s Collin McHugh (23.3%). McHugh has his flaws, but with 26 strikeouts against just three walks in the past three games, he’s in good form. He was far more effective in May in getting strikeouts (16.2 K% in April, 23.6 K% in May) and inducing ground balls (35.4 GB% in April, 47.9 GB% in May), and if he can navigate Khris Davis and his 10 home runs against RHP this year, he could make for a decent SP2 to pair with Kershaw on Saturday.
3. Justin Nicolino has failed to strike out more than three batters in 16 of his first 19 big-league starts. To find a player with more such games in his first 19 career starts, you have to go all the way back to the 1980s, when the Yankees’ Dave Eiland began his MLB career in 1988 by fanning three or fewer in 17 of his first 19 starts. Even in hitter-friendly Marlins Park, Yoenis Cespedes has the platoon advantage and is squarely in play against Nicolino on Saturday.
4. Martin Perez has 11 consecutive quality starts at Globe Life Park – that’s the longest streak of consecutive home quality starts in the same ballpark for any player in MLB (John Lackey has the longest active streak with 22 consecutive home quality starts, but he’s pitched at both Wrigley Field and Busch Stadium during his streak). Perez has to be one of the peskiest pitchers in baseball for DFS purposes – despite his Nicolino-esque inability to strike anybody out, his elite ground ball tendencies (career 53.1% GB rate) makes him a difficult pitcher to stack against.
5. Chris Davis seems to have broken out of his slump, walking four times on Wednesday and homering on Friday. Davis does his best work against ground ball pitchers, with a career .950 OPS (compared to his .802 OPS against fly ball pitchers). His career strikeout rate is 31.0%, but against ground ball pitchers he reduces that number to 26.5%. On Saturday, he faces Yankees’ righty Ivan Nova, whose 61.3% ground ball rate leads the majors, and whose 15.2 K% is 19th-lowest in MLB, among other K-challenged pitchers like Doug Fister (14.1 K%), Jered Weaver (14.3 K%), and Mike Leake (14.8 K%). All this adds up to Chris Davis being a viable cash option on Saturday.
6. Now that the recent 26-game and 29-game hitting streaks by Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley have ended, it’s time to start watching another (maybe less exciting) hitting streak: Hanley Ramirez has gone 16 straight games without an extra-base hit. It’s the second-longest streak in his career (he went 24 games without an extra-base hit in July 2010).
7. In 11 career games at Great American Ballpark, Bryce Harper is slashing .163/.265/.233. He’s got just one extra-base hit in those 11 games (a home run). Now, he also has a .194 BABIP in Cincinnati, and it’s a sample of 49 plate appearances, so that information probably won’t (and probably shouldn’t) sway you from playing Harper if you think he’s a good play on Saturday. Interesting, nonetheless.
8. Bryce Harper. Mike Trout. John Jaso? Clearly one of these things is not like the others. Unless you’re talking about on-base percentage versus fly ball pitchers. Since 2015, Jaso ranks third in MLB with a .439 OBP, and he’s not far off of the two guys who are arguably the best hitters in the game (Harper is at .472, Trout is at .462 against FB pitchers). With a 46.5% fly ball rate, Nicholas Tropeano has the fourth-highest fly ball rate in MLB. With a .130 ISO this year (the same mark as Asdrubel Cabrera), Jaso’s lack of power at first base requires you to find home run upside in other spots. Still, against an extreme fly ball pitcher, with the platoon advantage, Jaso makes for a nice cash game play on Saturday.
9. In 26.2 innings pitched at home this year, Mike Pelfrey has allowed 9 home runs (tied with Clay Buchholz, Michael Pineda, Patrick Corbin, and Hector Santiago for most in MLB). Last year, in 82.2 innings pitched Comerica Park, he allowed just three home runs. Pelfrey’s 4.4% HR/FB rate in 2015 was the third-lowest in all of MLB. This year, one out of every four fly balls hit off of Pelfrey is leaving the yard (25.0% HR/FB rate). Todd Frazier is slashing .326/.356/.582 against ground ball pitchers since 2015, which makes him one of the top third base options on the slate.
10. On a slate with 30 starting pitchers, Chris Sale ranks 14th with a 9.4 swinging-strike rate. Sure, he’s intentionally cutting down on the strikeouts to go deeper into games, but it’s just bizarre to look at the SwStr% leaderboards and see Sale behind pitchers like Jeremy Hellickson (12.6%), Dan Straily (10.7%), Ervin Santana (9.5%). With Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg on the slate, and against a Tigers team that ranks third in MLB with a 34.6% hard-contact rate against left-handed pitchers, Sale presents more risk than usual on Saturday.