10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 28th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, May 28, 2016.
1. In his last start, Noah Syndergaard recorded his eighth 10-strikeout game in his first 33 games in MLB, tying the mark set by Matt Harvey for the second-most such games to start a career in Mets club history. Dwight Gooden holds the Mets record with 16 such games in his rookie year of 1984.
2. In order to fit in one of the top pitchers (see: Syndergaard, Noah) and any Coors bats, finding an affordable SP2 will be paramount on Saturday. Look no further than Kyle Hendricks, who is the heavy favorite against the Phillies on Saturday. Hendricks has a 58.1% groundball rate this year, good for the fourth-highest MLB, and at home, that number spikes to 66.1%, the highest rate in baseball. The Phillies’ .249 OBP against groundballers ranks dead last in MLB…by 30 points (with a .279 OBP, the Reds, ranked 29th in MLB, are leaps and bounds ahead of the Phillies). In terms of pure safety, Hendricks is one of the top options on Saturday’s slate.
3. Speaking of teams’ batted ball profiles against groundball pitchers, the Twins have hit just two homers this year against groundballers (243 plate apperances), and their .107 ISO in that split ranks in the bottom-five of MLB. On Saturday, they face Mariners’ lefty Wade Miley and his 47.4% groundball rate (13th-highest in MLB). Minnesota has hit just two homers against groundballers this year in 243 PAs, and their .107 ISO in that split ranks in the bottom-five of MLB. Additionally, as I wrote last week, the Twins have been devoid of power against lefties as of late, having hit just three homers against them this year. A week has passed, and…still three homers. On a full slate, Wade Miley doesn’t possess the upside to be much of a play, but it might be wise to temper expectations with Twins stacks (despite what they’re doing to King Felix as I type this).
4. Michael Pineda has a 13.00 first-inning ERA through nine starts this year, a mark that is the highest in MLB among qualified starters. His five homers allowed, .478 average, and 1.423 OPS are also worst in baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays, Pineda’s opponent on Saturday, have thrived in the first frame this year, posting an .880 OPS, which ranks third in MLB.
5. Danny Salazar has five games this season of 8+ strikeouts and two or fewer earned runs. He’s tied with Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard and just one back from Clayton Kershaw and Jose Fernandez, who, with six such games, lead MLB. Why highlight Salazar when Syndergaard and Bumgarner are on the slate, too? Well, Syndergaard already got his stat. And Bumgarner probably won’t get there today (because Coors). Against an Orioles team that is prone to strikeouts against righties (as we saw with Lance McCullers on Thursday), Salazar makes for an interesting GPP pivot off of Syndergaard.
6. Over the past two weeks, Jackie Bradley, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Mookie Betts have struck out a combined 20 times. Five players in MLB (Eugenio Suarez, Mike Napoli, Chris Carter, Miguel Sano, and Giancarlo Stanton) have singlehandedly exceeded 20 strikeouts during that stretch. Given that they’re a road underdog against a good pitcher in Marcus Stroman, and given that there’s a Coors game, the Red Sox could actually go underowned on Saturday.
7. Last night, David Wright homered for the third consecutive game. The last time Wright homered in three straight was in August-September 2013. Wright seems to be totally selling out for power this year, raising his swinging-strike rate from 9.0% in 2015 to 12.3% this year and adding nearly 10 percentage points to his flyball rate (38.8% in 2015, 47.5% in 2016).
8. Over the past three years, Carlos Gonzalez has a wRC+ of 30 against left-handed pitching – that’s the worst in MLB among qualified hitters (and a whole 13 points below the next-lowest player, Pablo Sandoval). In essence, CarGo has been 70 percent worse than a league average hitter against lefties during that stretch. And somehow, he’s owned Madison Bumgarner in his career, slashing .320/.370/.700. He’s homered off of Bumgarner more often than he has against any other pitcher, save Ted Lilly (another lefty, oddly).
9. Chase Anderson’s 2.39 HR/9 against righties is third-worst in MLB this year. He’ll have to take on a Reds team featuring new #5 hitter in the order Adam Duvall, who hit his 10th homer of the year last night off Brewers righty Zach Davies. Nine of Duvall’s 10 homers this year have come at the expense of right-handed pitchers.
10. In five seasons in the minor leagues (1880 PAs), Francisco Lindor hit just 21 home runs. Last night, Lindor hit his 16th home run as a major leaguer (639 PAs). Against Ubaldo Jimenez, though, who owns a 52.8% groundball rate this year, Lindor should be counted on for base hits, not homers – in 123 PAs, he’s only hit one career home run against a ground ball pitcher in MLB (using Baseball Reference’s definition of groundball pitcher, which is a pitcher who ranks in the bottom third of the league in the ratio of fly ball outs to ground ball outs).