10 Notes Sneak Peek: Week 11
Ever have one of those moments in your daily life, your “real life” outside the DFS bubble, when DFS is far from your mind, and something happens — maybe it’s a conversation you have, maybe it’s an article you read online, or a show you watch on TV — and immediately after, you think, “This has something to do with DFS”?
I have these moments often (and I don’t think I’m alone). Daily fantasy has a way of seeping into your every thought; it can be all-encompassing, if you let it. I had one of these “this has something to do with DFS” moments this week while I was teaching.
I’ll stop to mention here that below is a (probably too long) anecdote about something a student said in my class this week that caused me to think about my DFS process. If you think it sounds boring, or if you’d prefer not to revisit a high school classroom, or if you just want to get to football, scroll down. I won’t be offended. I won’t even know.
I’ve been a high school English teacher for five years. Last year, I started teaching AP Language and Composition, which is a college-level English course that is heavily focused on writing. I’m sure some of you took it in high school. While we also focus on “real” writing skills, we spend a lot of time preparing for the AP exam, which they’ll take in May. One component of the test is an essay section where students have to write three different types of essays in a two-hour period. It’s totally unnatural to write an entire essay in roughly 40 minutes, especially since one essay requires students to read an entire passage and analyze its rhetoric, while another asks them to synthesize six or seven texts into a mini research essay. It’s not easy, and they’re not used to it, which is where the practice comes in. A lot of AP students are smart enough that they’ve been able to “fake” their way through much of school up to this point, but the timed essays are challenging because they can’t fake it; it’s them, a piece of paper, a pen, and 40 minutes. Either they’ll do well, or they won’t, but they don’t have their friends, or Google, or SparkNotes to rely on; it’s squarely on them.
Anyway, this past week, they wrote an essay, and afterwards, we were doing one-on-one writing conferences. The essays are scored on a 1-9 scale, a 1 being an essay that says nothing, is illegible, or is written in a language besides English (seriously), and a 9 is essentially an essay that shows college-level thinking and writing skills. Basically, I’ll pull each kid out into the hallway, and we’ll sit down and go over his or her essay, discussing the score and any questions they might have.
This time, when I asked a student what she specifically was looking to improve on, she answered, “I’ve gotten 5’s for the last three essays, and I’m stuck at that score. What are a few things I can do to get up to a 9.”
She wasn’t the first one to say something like that, so we discussed how writing, like anything else, is a process that takes time (wow – when you start saying, “trust the process” in everyday life, you know you’re too far into DFS). I explained that there isn’t always a straight line between hard work and getting a better score; sometimes, despite working hard to improve, the results are slow to show up. I’m pretty sure I made some analogy to playing a sport, or learning an instrument, or something like that; it can be frustrating, and it can seem like you’re not making progress, but in the end, if you keep working at it, the results will be there.
She understood (or at least nodded her head), and I brought out the next student, who asked the same question. They always ask this question, and while this particular student seemed receptive to my pie-in-the-sky feedback, oftentimes, students want a three-step guide to getting a 9. Fix a comma here, replace this word with a better word, capitalize this word, and there you go: a perfect essay.
I think that’s a lot what it’s like to be “learning” DFS. I started playing at the beginning of the 2015 MLB season, and at first, all I wanted was easy answers: “What are a few things I can do to get up to a 9.” I thought that the secret recipe was out there somewhere, and that if I just read the right articles, followed the right tout’s picks, listened to the right podcasts, I’d have it figured out. Almost two years later, I’m still “figuring it out.” I’m definitely feel like I’m a better player than I was a year ago, even a month ago, but that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating. Since I started working at RotoGrinders, I take in more content than ever, and I feel like my decisions are more sound than ever. But that doesn’t mean Mike Evans, or Dontrelle Inman, or Alshon Jeffery won’t come along and put up a dud, reminding you that there isn’t always a direct correlation between research and results.
I was short on time in building lineups this week, so I decided to stick with mostly cash games, entering slight variations of my cash lineup in single-entry and three-entry max GPPs. I cashed in double-ups but fell just short in the GPPs, thanks to the aforementioned group of receivers, along with a few other mishaps. Still, I felt great about my lineups, and I’ll be back doing it again next week, hopefully with better luck, but maybe not. The whole “trust the process” message isn’t exactly an original one, but it is an important one, whether you’re talking about DFS, or writing, or any other skill that takes time and effort.
Okay, enough of that. Football.
All this happened, more or less…
Recapping Week 10 with 10 noteworthy happenings.
1. Marcus Mariota more than justified the hype he got as a value QB, totaling 28.6 DraftKings points. Against a beatable Packers secondary, he tossed four touchdowns (his sixth straight multi-touchdown game), needing only 26 attempts to get there. It was only Mariota’s 22nd game as a pro, and he’s been ridiculously efficient, with already five games of 3+ TDs on under 30 attempts. In NFL history, only Fran Tarkenton, with seven, had more games of 3+ TDs on 30 or fewer attempts in his first 22 games in the NFL.
2. Doug Pederson elevated himself to Skiles-esque levels of infamy for DFS players when Darren Sproles, whom Pederson declared was his new lead back this week, was given two carries, compared to the 32 combined carries given to Ryan Mathews and Wendell Smallwood. Doug, if you’re reading this, I did a bit of research (read: Google), and I dug up the definition of the word “lead” for you, just to clear up any confusion:
Luckily, Sproles salvaged his day with seven catches for 50 yards. But for those keeping count, that’s four TDs for Mathews in the past three weeks and zero for Sproles.
3. Cam Newton might be the best goal line back in history. Check out how the entire Chiefs defense converges on him at once, and…he just doesn’t care. He drags them all. What you can’t see just outside the frame: Alex Smith, Cairo Santos, and Andy Reid are all running up to join in to try and tackle Cam, and Travis Kelce is throwing a towel up in the air.
4. David Johnson scored two touchdowns, and…disappointed? 27.1 DraftKings points is nothing to sneeze at, but it was just Johnson’s fourth-highest total this year, and he ranked behind two of the other highly touted high-end RBs of Week 10 (Ezekiel Elliott had 43.9 DK points, Le’Veon Bell had 34.4). It was through no fault of his own, as he carried ball just 19 times (including SIX times in the first half), against 49 throws by Old Man Palmer. Still, let this be a lesson that when someone is deemed a “must play” by the masses, that mostly refers to cash games.
5. Jay Cutler is…still Jay Cutler, as it turns out. In the most Jay Cutler move as possible, the Bears QB threw two interceptions within two minutes of each other in the first half against the Bucs in Week 10. As the week wore on, Cutler became a trendy salary-saving QB option for the Mariota-averse, but his 16-for-30, 182 yard, 1 TD, 2 INT yielded a whopping nine DraftKings points.
6. Philip Rivers passed John Elway for eighth on the all-time touchdown list, tossing his 300th and 301st TDs. For his encore, he threw FOUR fourth-quarter picks, making everyone forget about Jay Cutler, who, somewhere, was diabolically laughing.
7. DeMarco Murray threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Delanie Walker. He now has a 147.9 career QB rating.
8. Mike Evans had ZERO targets in the first half. He was held to four targets for the game, which made it the third time in his career he was held to four or fewer targets.
9. Ezekiel Elliott continues to find new ways to amaze us, this week catching a screen pass and taking it 83 yards for a score (and tap dancing?), then topping it off with two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including the game winning 32-yard touchdown run with just nine seconds left. And Dak Prescott continues to dispel any notion of a “QB controversy” in Dallas, throwing for a career-high 319 yards and two touchdowns.
10. As I’m writing, the Seahawks/Patriots game is ending, and LeGarrette Blount and Doug Baldwin both notched three touchdowns. Perhaps equally as important for DFS players, though, is the fact that rookie C.J. Prosise out-carried Christine Michael 17 to five, and he also out-targeted him seven to one.
Snap Judgments for Week 11
First impressions of 10 noteworthy players for Week 11, using DraftKings pricing.
1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (at SF) — $7,800 — After Sunday night’s loss to the Seahawks, we could get Even Angrier Brady in Week 11. The 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL, and Carson Palmer attempted 49 passes against them this week. He’s the most expensive QB on the main slate, and while there are a few cheaper options who are more viable for cash, Brady is in a perfect spot for a bounce-back game.
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CLE) — $7,500 — Roethlisberger should be one of the chalk options at QB as he takes on a Browns team that, yet again, allowed a QB to throw for multiple TDs (this time it was Joe Flacco, with three TDs on Thursday night). It’ll be interesting to observe how much people take Ben’s massive home/road splits into account; since 2014, he has a 112.6 QB rating at home and an 85.4 rating on the road. I’m not sure it matters in a matchup like this, but as we’ve seen recently with Drew Brees (who didn’t have huge ownership despite a favorable road matchup in San Francisco), people do pay attention to home/road splits, particularly when they’re as pronounced as Brees’s or Roethlisberger’s.
3. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (at IND) — $6,700 — Mariota gets a major price hike for Week 11, and he’s now the fifth-priciest QB at DraftKings, behind only Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Luck. He probably won’t be chalk at this price (if people are paying up, it’s not much harder to get to Brady or Ben), but this game opened with an huge over/under of 53 points, and the Colts secondary has been completely helpless all season; since Week 4, opposing QBs have put up 14 TDs to just two INTs against Indianapolis (and that’s a QB group that includes Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer, Brock Osweiler, and Nick Foles).
4. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (vs. GB) — $5,800 — Cousins has 1,021 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception in his last three games. Now he faces the Packers, who got eviscerated by Marcus Mariota in Week 10, who led the Titans to 35 first-half points against the Pack. Plus, he’s at home, which really matters for Cousins; for his career, he’s posted 98.1 QB rating at home, compared to an 86.9 rating on the road. The Redskins will have to keep up with Aaron Rodgers, and they have almost no run game (unless you’re scared of someone called “Fat Rob”). Week 11 is absolutely a Kirk Cousins week.
5. Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CLE) — $8,800 — Bell was overshadowed by David Johnson in Week 10, but he won’t be the bridesmaid to anybody in Week 11. He’s the highest-priced RB, but Cleveland ranks 29th in run defense DVOA, and Pittsburgh should have the lead all game. This is a no-brainer for cash games.
6. LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots (at SF) — $6,400 — Has there ever been a better scenario for a Blount Game? Even though the 49ers were able to contain David Johnson on the ground (apart from one 18-yard run, they limited him to 37 yards on 18 carries), this team has allowed prolific numbers to opposing backs. The Pats will get ahead, and when they do, it’ll likely be Blount grinding down the clock. After his three-touchdown outburst on Sunday night, he’ll be popular, and it’s always risky going too heavy on any Patriots running back. But from a pure matchup standpoint, this is as good as it gets.
7. Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams (vs. MIA) — $5,000 — The player who was a consensus top-five pick in season-long fantasy is in a primo matchup, and he’s the same price as Charcandrick West. Obviously, that’s terrible analysis, but you get the idea. Gurley has to have a big week at some point, right? Miami did just limit Melvin Gordon to 70 yards on 24 carries, but otherwise, they’ve been a middle-of-the-road run defense this year (ranked 16th in DVOA). He’s as talented as ever, and his price is low enough that it might be time to jump on board in Week 11.
8. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at KC) — $5,400 — This is not a perfect spot for Martin, as the Chiefs rank in the middle of the league in both DVOA and DvP against running backs, and the Bucs opened as 7.5-point underdogs. There’s a fair chance they fall behind and have to abandon the run (but how far are they going to fall behind against an Alex Smith-led defense?). Even admitting the matchup isn’t great, though, $5,800 for a three-down back who should see a ton of volume (he carried the ball 16 times in his first game back from a hamstring injury) is a steal, and he won’t be priced this low for long. For context, he’s $100 more than Derrick Henry.
9. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (at CLE) — $9,500 — His price has risen $600 in Week 11, but just a few weeks ago, he was at $10,000, and given his floor, he still made sense at that price point. And get this: he’s scored 39.7 and 40.9 DraftKings points in his last two games against the Browns. With late touchdowns in each of the past two weeks, Brown has made his owners sweat lately. In Week 11, he could be dominate from start to finish.
10. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (at SF) – $6,300 — You get it by now. Lots of plays for the Pats equal lots of DraftKings points equals lots of money for you equals a lifetime of happiness and fulfillment. Simple.