Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, June 12th
As any DFS player who agonized through the last two days can attest, pitching has been about as unstable as hitting recently and maybe even more so. In fact, a lot of offensive top plays have been donging this week, but the guys on the mound just haven’t been getting it done for a lot of us. Perhaps some of that is my fault for adjusting the format Wednesday, but it’s back to normal today, so maybe we can end the jinx and get things back on track. Also, we kind of have some studs on the mound too tonight. Yeah, that’s probably more important.
As always, be sure to check out Kevin’s forecast, lineups, and umpire assignments because they can have a great effect on and maybe even over-rule things mentioned here. Wait! Kevin doesn’t do all those things. Just the weather. I mean, check RotoGrinders and the internet/twitter in general for those other things.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the FanGraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 0.4 | 3.44 | 6.07 | 1.46 | 0.88 | 3.82 | 4.03 | NYM | 102 | 103 | 96 | 20.3% | 6.7% | 23.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -0.7 | 3.85 | 6.41 | 1.01 | 0.88 | 3.54 | 3.51 | ATL | 86 | 97 | 103 | 17.7% | 5.4% | 21.1% | 9.6% | 9.7% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | -6 | 4.29 | 5.95 | 0.89 | 1.01 | 4.25 | 5.62 | SEA | 89 | 114 | 81 | 17.0% | 7.0% | 21.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.3 | 3.86 | 5.63 | 1.23 | 0.87 | 3.77 | 3.19 | SFO | 102 | 113 | 136 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 22.3% | 10.7% | 9.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 7.4 | 2.38 | 7.14 | 1.81 | 0.84 | 2.59 | 2.17 | SDG | 91 | 99 | 95 | 26.2% | 6.7% | 18.8% | 8.2% | 13.0% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -5 | 2.97 | 5.58 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 3.12 | 3.15 | DET | 107 | 104 | 133 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 23.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| David Price | DET | 9.1 | 3.05 | 7.24 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 2.92 | 3.56 | CLE | 98 | 111 | 106 | 21.5% | 7.7% | 22.6% | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 2.8 | 3.63 | 5.78 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 4.09 | 3.73 | BOS | 104 | 94 | 104 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 23.1% | 9.3% | 12.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -5.2 | 2.68 | 6.75 | 2.14 | 1.01 | 2.59 | 4.99 | HOU | 98 | 99 | 60 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 21.4% | 12.6% | 9.5% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.4 | 4.37 | 5.41 | 0.66 | 0.91 | 4.72 | 4.48 | OAK | 97 | 84 | 100 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 6.5 | 2.9 | 6.38 | 2.7 | 0.98 | 2.81 | 1.72 | KAN | 105 | 112 | 70 | 18.0% | 3.9% | 21.9% | 10.9% | 6.0% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 1.8 | 3.55 | 6.12 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 3.52 | 2.37 | CIN | 86 | 93 | 124 | 22.0% | 6.2% | 22.1% | 12.3% | 6.6% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -5.6 | 4.24 | 5.8 | 1.85 | 0.91 | 3.73 | 4.88 | PHI | 76 | 96 | 100 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 22.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -9.3 | 3.58 | 6.11 | 1.17 | 0.91 | 3.49 | 2.92 | ANA | 110 | 97 | 116 | 21.2% | 6.7% | 22.5% | 11.2% | 7.7% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -3.6 | 4.28 | 5.65 | 1.98 | 1.07 | 3.83 | 3.63 | TOR | 102 | 110 | 150 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 19.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% |
| John Danks | CHW | -6.3 | 4.5 | 6.07 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 4.71 | 3.68 | TAM | 107 | 108 | 54 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 22.6% | 10.5% | 8.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 1.9 | 3.21 | 6.9 | 1.31 | 1.05 | 3.67 | 2.97 | CHC | 88 | 91 | 117 | 24.0% | 7.4% | 22.7% | 10.2% | 13.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -3.8 | 3.51 | 6.22 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 3.15 | 4.96 | MIL | 83 | 81 | 79 | 20.2% | 5.4% | 22.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 7.1 | 4.25 | 5.4 | 2.12 | 1.01 | 4.71 | 3.96 | COL | 86 | 96 | 100 | 19.0% | 7.5% | 17.6% | 9.0% | 18.9% |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | -1.6 | 4.65 | 5.6 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 4.58 | PIT | 98 | 93 | 90 | ||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.7 | 4.56 | 6.02 | 1.35 | 1.01 | 4.79 | 5.27 | FLA | 84 | 80 | 107 | 14.9% | 5.7% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 8.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -3.8 | 3.12 | 6.56 | 1.25 | 0.87 | 3.05 | 2.18 | ARI | 96 | 96 | 67 | 24.0% | 5.9% | 18.7% | 12.2% | 10.3% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 10.4 | 3.81 | 3.4 | 2.16 | 0.94 | 3.82 | CHW | 84 | 90 | 89 | ||||||
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -7.1 | 2.96 | 6.09 | 1.28 | 1.04 | 2.86 | 2.07 | BAL | 104 | 98 | 113 | 25.1% | 5.4% | 19.0% | 8.9% | 6.3% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | -1.7 | 3.17 | 5.74 | 0.82 | 1.07 | 3.41 | 4.52 | WAS | 97 | 96 | 86 | 22.2% | 7.8% | 22.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | -16 | 4.25 | 6. | 1.71 | 0.84 | 4.11 | 4.26 | LOS | 109 | 124 | 83 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 22.1% | 13.7% | 7.0% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.3 | 4.59 | 5.51 | 0.92 | 1.08 | 4.68 | 5.96 | TEX | 102 | 100 | 59 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 13.3% | 10.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.9 | 3.99 | 5.7 | 1.23 | 1.04 | 3.96 | 4.47 | NYY | 95 | 107 | 142 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 23.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | -0.8 | 4.11 | 5.27 | 1.3 | 1.08 | 4.51 | 3.31 | MIN | 69 | 102 | 66 | 17.4% | 5.9% | 19.0% | 8.7% | 10.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 14.4 | 3.88 | 5.93 | 1.6 | 0.98 | 3.91 | 3.69 | STL | 108 | 102 | 68 | 20.6% | 8.2% | 22.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% |
Alex Wood still isn’t generating swings and misses like he did last year, but there’s been some improvement in his SwStr% recently and the overall results have been fine because he’s kept the ball down and in the park. He’s only allowed more than three ERs in one start this season. The Mets aren’t terrible at home or against left-handed pitching. They have a 23.3 K% vs LHP, but a 15.2 HR/FB. The park adjusts them down to a favorable matchup for Wood.
Chase Anderson might currently be the best pitcher on this staff. He’s striking out fewer batters, but also walking fewer batters, so his K-BB (11.8%) hasn’t really dropped all that much. He’s allowed more than two ERs just twice over his last nine starts, but I’ll tell you later why you can’t fully buy into his success. He certainly hasn’t been bad though. The Giants are a tough offense, the second-best vs RHP with just a 16.9 K% against them. They also have a 16.8 K% at home, but just a 7.7 HR/FB.
Clayton Kershaw had some people worried for a while there. What’s wrong with Clayton Kershaw? Nothing! He’s still awesome: 22 innings, 28 strikeouts, and two ERs over his last three starts. He has just a 6.3 Hard-Soft% over that span. It’s no surprise to find he has the top ERA estimators on the main chart along with potentially the top K%. Tonight, he has a great park adjusted matchup against the Padres, who have just a 5.8 HR/FB vs LHP.
Danny Salazar can miss bats and that’s what makes him so intriguing from a DFS perspective. We all know that. What was problematic was his 18.6 Hard-Soft%. His 32.0 Hard% is actually 0.4 points higher this year, but his Soft% has jumped 8.6%, which has allowed him to drop his BABIP and LD% to acceptable rates. His 28.3 K% on the road since the start of last season is exactly the same as Kershaw’s. The HRs though, that’s his current issue. The Tigers represent a tough matchup with or without the park adjustment. They’ve surprisingly not hit for as much power (7.7 HR/FB at home, 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP) as expected.
David Price struck out 11 his last time out and that’s one off his season high. He’s been throwing the ball well lately, though he did walk five and only strike out nine over his two starts prior to his last one. Although only half of them have come with Detroit, he has a 21.5 K-BB% in home starts since last season. Cleveland has just a team 8.0 K-BB% on the road and 5.0 K-BB% vs LHP and do not represent a good spot for Price.
Felix Hernandez has eight walks and just 10 strikeouts over his last two starts. What do you do here? He does have a few stinkers in his ledger this year. Fortunately, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in each of his other nine starts. His 18.3 K-BB% is still studly, though not as good as the past two years, but his 2.4 Hard-Soft% is the second-best mark of his career. This is the first year since 2008 that his walk rate has risen and that seems to be the issue, if there even is one. The Astros have been cold and strike out at least a quarter of the time at home, vs RHP, and over the last week, leaving Felix just behind Kershaw in expected strikeout rate tonight. HRs have plagued Felix a bit though and the Astros have an 18.4 HR/FB at home and 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP.
Jaime Garcia doesn’t pitch often, but when he does, he’s very good. He’s walked five batters over four starts, all in his first though, and has an incredible 4.08 GB/FB. Albeit in very limited work, his ERA estimators in the main chart above, are just below Kershaw today. Keeping so many balls on the ground has allowed him to thrive despite a 26.0 Hard-Soft%. The Royals strike out only 13.9% vs LHP, but don’t walk much and have just a 7.4 HR/FB against southpaws. They have just a 6.4 Hard-Soft% vs lefties too.
Jesse Chavez has allowed no ERs in three of his nine starts, fewer than three in two others, and never more than four. In other words, he’s been good, and keeping the ball in the park has been a big part of it, though he does have a 22.1 K% over the last two calendar years. The Angels are one of the better home offenses in the league and have been much improved against RHP, but the park still adjusts them down to neutral.
Madison Bumgarner has allowed 11 ERs over his last 20.1 IP and five to the Phillies in his last start, while striking out 11. He returns home, where he has a 19.6 K-BB% since last season, for the top park adjusted matchup of the day tonight though. It might surprise you to know the D’Backs have the fourth-best Hard-Soft contact rate (14.7%) vs LHP, but that hasn’t led to them generating an offense above league average against them.
Michael Pineda struck out 16 Orioles the last time he faced them and has whiffed 25 of the 53 he’s faced this year. He has an exceptional 20.9 K-BB% as a Yankee. The park adjusts the matchup up to unfavorable from a power standpoint, but the strikeout potential should be able to wipe out the HR concern from a daily fantasy viewpoint.
Mike Fiers has allowed exactly two ERs in five of his last six starts (and none in the other), but lasted just 4.1 innings in his last one. We’re going to talk about all of his various quirks below, but he seems to have solved an early season HR problem (just one over this current six-game span). Four of those have been on the road in power suppressing parks though. Maybe he just needs to get out of Milwaukee. He comes home to face an average Washington offense that has not been hitting well, but adjust up to above average with the park. They have a 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP.
Ubaldo Jimenez escaped his last start with six walks and one run. I wanted to stick him on the list below and be done with it, but felt I had to mention that he hasn’t been that bad this year and has even pulled up his SwStr% to match a solid K%, which was way off base earlier in the season. He hadn’t even walked more than three in a start prior to this last one. He did just do that though and is in a pretty tough spot tonight.
Yordano Ventura has allowed exactly four or five ERs in six of his 11 starts, but two or fewer in the other five. Which Yordano will we get tonight? The Cardinals have just gone cold since losing Holliday and have just a 68 wRC+ and 25.5 K% over the last week. The park in St Louis plays more neutral than Kansas City, but has a big outfield and really pulls down power potential, which works in his favor with a great outfield defense. The Cardinals have just a 7.9 HR/FB at home.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Brett Oberholtzer (.419 BABIP – 72.0 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB) – Just three starts, but and an interesting -2.3 Hard-Soft%, but not his career norm.
Hector Santiago (.244 BABIP – 85.9 LOB% – 8.0 HR/FB)
Jordan Zimmerman (.319 BABIP – 71.4 LOB% – 3.4 HR/FB) – This will be only the 2nd power friendly park he’s pitched in this year.
Wandy Rodriguez (.273 BABIP – 76.6 LOB% – 7.8 HR/FB) – It’s not that these numbers are that extreme from the norm, but a guy with an 11.3 career HR/FB is going to do this in Texas now?
NO THANK YOU
Bartolo Colon – Little upside vs a low strike out team at a high end/mid-range price tag.
Drew Hutchison – The Red Sox don’t strike out much.
Jeff Locke – Great matchup, but not the best of the day and he hasn’t been good.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Braves | 22.4% | 7.0% | Road | 17.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 1.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 17.4% | 3.6% | Home | 19.8% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 1.9% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Astros | 15.2% | 5.0% | Home | 13.8% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 20.1% | 7.3% | Road | 19.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 2.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 29.8% | 4.7% | Road | 28.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 5.6% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 28.3% | 7.1% | Road | 28.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| David Price | Tigers | 24.1% | 3.8% | Home | 25.4% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 9.1% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.5% | 7.1% | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 26.6% | 5.8% | Road | 26.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 16.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.1% | 9.9% | Home | 21.2% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 7.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 20.6% | 4.3% | Home | 21.0% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 21.6% | 5.8% | Home | 21.4% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 3.6% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 17.0% | 9.3% | Home | 16.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.1% | 7.7% | Road | 23.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 1.9% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.0% | 9.3% | Home | 19.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 15.2% | 7.3% | Road | 14.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 24.3% | 6.1% | Road | 21.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.6% | 4.6% | Road | 23.2% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 5.4% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 13.3% | 7.2% | Home | 16.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| Kevin Correia | Phillies | 12.4% | 6.3% | Road | 12.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.0% | 6.4% | Road | 11.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 24.8% | 5.7% | Home | 25.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 1.9% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 13.8% | 5.3% | Home | 13.9% | 4.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 23.3% | 2.4% | Road | 22.6% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 8.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 26.7% | 7.0% | Home | 26.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 14.5% | 6.9% | Home | 15.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 1.7% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 15.0% | 7.5% | Road | 12.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.2% | 11.2% | Home | 21.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 16.3% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 18.2% | 7.5% | Home | 13.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 20.0% | 8.6% | Road | 19.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.1% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 19.2% | 8.8% | LH | 23.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.9% |
| Braves | Road | 18.3% | 7.3% | RH | 16.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.1% | 7.4% | LH | 18.9% | 5.8% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.3% |
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 7.7% | RH | 16.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 13.5% | 6.6% |
| Padres | Home | 22.6% | 6.0% | LH | 22.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.2% | 7.9% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 4.1% |
| Indians | Road | 16.6% | 8.6% | LH | 15.9% | 10.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.1% | 8.1% | RH | 16.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.4% |
| Astros | Home | 26.2% | 9.0% | RH | 25.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.1% | 8.2% | LH | 17.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.8% |
| Royals | Road | 17.0% | 5.4% | LH | 13.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 14.5% | 5.1% |
| Reds | Road | 19.1% | 8.1% | RH | 18.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.1% | 5.8% | LH | 19.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Home | 20.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.2% | 7.6% | RH | 19.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 9.4% |
| Rays | Home | 22.2% | 7.5% | LH | 22.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.3% | 10.0% | RH | 25.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 22.3% | 7.2% | RH | 21.6% | 6.2% | L7Days | 21.2% | 5.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.8% | 4.9% | RH | 19.6% | 5.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 4.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.1% | 6.6% | RH | 20.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 6.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 6.3% | RH | 20.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 15.9% | 3.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.4% | 6.7% | LH | 19.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 18.3% | 5.7% | RH | 19.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.1% | 6.4% | RH | 23.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.4% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.8% | 10.5% | RH | 19.8% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 20.3% | 8.6% | LH | 22.5% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.4% | 8.2% | RH | 19.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.6% |
| Twins | Road | 22.5% | 7.1% | LH | 18.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.2% | 6.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.2% | 9.0% | RH | 19.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.5% | 7.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Braves | 21.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | Road | 19.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | Home | 21.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | Astros | 21.2% | 5.4% | 8.9% | Home | 21.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 23.7% | 10.4% | 9.9% | Road | 26.8% | 8.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.7% | 7.7% | 11.1% | Road | 19.9% | 6.3% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 10.0% | 30.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 23.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | Road | 23.4% | 13.7% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| David Price | Tigers | 21.9% | 8.0% | 10.9% | Home | 22.2% | 8.4% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 20.4% | 9.9% | 9.9% | Road | 20.0% | 9.1% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 18.5% | 11.5% | 9.1% | Road | 17.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 19.5% | 8.1% | 13.9% | Home | 18.3% | 7.8% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | 19.7% | 18.2% | 4.5% | Home | 20.6% | 22.6% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.9% | 11.8% | 7.5% | Home | 22.2% | 10.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 20.4% | 12.0% | 9.1% | Home | 20.2% | 10.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 21.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | Road | 20.3% | 12.5% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 20.8% | 9.9% | 8.0% | Home | 24.5% | 11.1% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.9% | 12.7% | 7.3% | Road | 21.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 21.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | Road | 22.2% | 7.6% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 23.4% | 7.1% | 11.7% | Road | 23.4% | 7.9% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 17.2% | 11.8% | 23.5% | Home | 17.6% | 0.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Kevin Correia | Phillies | 21.8% | 9.2% | 6.4% | Road | 17.4% | 8.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 21.2% | 12.0% | 11.0% | Road | 19.9% | 10.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.4% | 9.8% | 12.8% | Home | 23.5% | 9.8% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | 18.9% | 15.8% | 10.5% | Home | 22.4% | 18.8% | 12.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 18.7% | 7.3% | 10.6% | Road | 19.1% | 5.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 22.1% | 9.2% | 15.0% | Home | 23.0% | 12.6% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 21.0% | 10.1% | 7.2% | Home | 20.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 21.3% | 11.7% | 12.0% | Road | 23.1% | 13.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 21.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | Home | 23.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 17.2% | 15.6% | 8.9% | Home | 19.4% | 12.9% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 20.6% | 10.2% | 8.1% | Road | 23.0% | 10.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 21.2% | 9.8% | 13.1% | LH | 21.9% | 15.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 12.2% | 16.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | RH | 22.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.0% | 11.8% | 6.9% | LH | 18.6% | 14.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | RH | 21.9% | 11.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.5% | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Padres | Home | 19.4% | 10.6% | 6.8% | LH | 20.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | RH | 21.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 27.1% | 11.1% | 2.8% |
| Indians | Road | 20.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | LH | 21.7% | 8.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.4% | 17.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.2% | 11.5% | 10.2% | RH | 20.1% | 9.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Astros | Home | 18.1% | 18.4% | 11.7% | RH | 22.0% | 14.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.7% | 13.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.9% | 10.6% | 9.0% | LH | 17.3% | 5.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.5% | 11.3% |
| Royals | Road | 24.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | LH | 25.2% | 7.4% | 10.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| Reds | Road | 21.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | RH | 21.1% | 12.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 17.6% | 4.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.6% | 4.8% | 9.7% | LH | 23.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 11.3% | 18.9% |
| Angels | Home | 22.8% | 12.1% | 10.6% | RH | 20.5% | 11.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.1% | 10.8% | 12.7% | RH | 18.5% | 13.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 16.4% | 11.9% |
| Rays | Home | 22.1% | 11.2% | 11.2% | LH | 22.9% | 12.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.2% | 10.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | RH | 20.4% | 12.4% | 11.5% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.9% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 19.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | RH | 20.4% | 10.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 17.1% | 12.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.2% | 14.2% | 9.2% | RH | 21.1% | 14.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 16.6% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.4% | 12.7% | 5.6% | RH | 21.7% | 10.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 11.4% | 2.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | RH | 21.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 18.8% | 11.1% | 8.3% | LH | 18.3% | 11.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.4% | 7.4% | 11.5% | RH | 21.9% | 9.5% | 11.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 19.0% | 4.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.3% | 13.9% | 7.8% | RH | 21.2% | 13.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.2% | 13.0% | 3.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.5% | 13.0% | 7.7% | RH | 20.9% | 13.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 13.1% | 3.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.7% | 16.4% | 8.0% | RH | 21.5% | 16.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.6% | 11.2% | 9.0% | LH | 21.9% | 11.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.4% | 10.7% | 9.1% | RH | 21.3% | 13.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 15.8% | 7.0% |
| Twins | Road | 19.7% | 7.1% | 13.3% | LH | 20.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.4% | 14.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | RH | 23.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.7% | 12.8% | 8.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 16.5% | 6.2% | 2.66 | 14.3% | 7.6% | 1.88 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.00 | 16.3% | 5.3% | 3.08 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 13.8% | 9.8% | 1.41 | 13.8% | 9.8% | 1.41 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 17.3% | 7.8% | 2.22 | 14.0% | 7.1% | 1.97 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 31.4% | 14.5% | 2.17 | 32.9% | 15.1% | 2.18 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 31.8% | 13.3% | 2.39 | 26.2% | 10.5% | 2.50 |
| David Price | DET | 21.5% | 10.7% | 2.01 | 27.3% | 12.8% | 2.13 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 | 23.8% | 9.8% | 2.43 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 25.6% | 11.0% | 2.33 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 2.22 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 21.3% | 8.8% | 2.42 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.27 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 18.0% | 7.0% | 2.57 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 2.57 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 26.0% | 11.3% | 2.30 | 29.5% | 14.9% | 1.98 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.9% | 8.6% | 2.08 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 2.05 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 21.5% | 9.4% | 2.29 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 2.35 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 19.6% | 7.7% | 2.55 | 15.4% | 6.9% | 2.23 |
| John Danks | CHW | 16.6% | 8.8% | 1.89 | 17.0% | 10.3% | 1.65 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 23.8% | 10.1% | 2.36 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 2.46 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 15.6% | 7.2% | 2.17 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 2.12 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 13.3% | 8.9% | 1.49 | 15.7% | 9.2% | 1.71 |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | ||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 11.3% | 5.8% | 1.95 | 9.7% | 6.1% | 1.59 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.05 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 1.88 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 13.8% | 8.6% | 1.60 | 25.0% | 11.3% | 2.21 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 26.3% | 11.3% | 2.33 | 20.8% | 10.7% | 1.94 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 25.6% | 9.4% | 2.72 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 2.74 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 11.8% | 5.7% | 2.07 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 2.02 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 10.5% | 6.6% | 1.59 | 0.0% | 7.2% | 0.00 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 22.9% | 8.5% | 2.69 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 2.00 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 19.4% | 6.0% | 3.23 | 16.7% | 5.4% | 3.09 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.18 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.43 |
Mike Fiers is the only pitcher we get to talk about here and it’s not to say much. His K/SwStr has moved into a borderline range, which we can probably accept, considering the strength of the Milwaukee catchers as pitch framers. Maldonado is at 3.2 RAA, but Lucroy has only been average (0.5 RAA) in limited work this year according to statcorner.com.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 3.36 | 4.14 | 0.78 | 3.92 | 0.56 | 2.99 | -0.37 | 2 | 4.26 | 2.26 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 3.07 | 1.07 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.52 | 3.52 | -1 | 3.51 | -1.01 | 3.8 | -0.72 | 6.44 | 4.07 | -2.37 | 4.05 | -2.39 | 4.85 | -1.59 |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 3.75 | 5.29 | 1.54 | 5.04 | 1.29 | 3.53 | -0.22 | 3.75 | 5.29 | 1.54 | 5.04 | 1.29 | 3.53 | -0.22 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 3.12 | 3.97 | 0.85 | 3.9 | 0.78 | 3.14 | 0.02 | 3.3 | 4.06 | 0.76 | 3.93 | 0.63 | 3.24 | -0.06 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 3.36 | 2.36 | -1 | 2.18 | -1.18 | 2.55 | -0.81 | 2.25 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 2.18 | -0.07 | 2.17 | -0.08 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.5 | 2.58 | -0.92 | 2.66 | -0.84 | 3.4 | -0.1 | 3.77 | 3.46 | -0.31 | 3.44 | -0.33 | 3.98 | 0.21 |
| David Price | DET | 2.7 | 3.7 | 1 | 3.76 | 1.06 | 3.06 | 0.36 | 1.95 | 3.16 | 1.21 | 3.38 | 1.43 | 2.84 | 0.89 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 4.91 | 3.71 | -1.2 | 3.65 | -1.26 | 3.63 | -1.28 | 2.97 | 2.9 | -0.07 | 2.77 | -0.2 | 2.54 | -0.43 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 2.51 | 2.89 | 0.38 | 2.89 | 0.38 | 3.39 | 0.88 | 3.48 | 3.53 | 0.05 | 3.19 | -0.29 | 4.24 | 0.76 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.55 | 4.26 | 1.71 | 4.67 | 2.12 | 4.16 | 1.61 | 2.52 | 4 | 1.48 | 4.49 | 1.97 | 3.78 | 1.26 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 2.67 | 2.9 | 0.23 | 2.95 | 0.28 | 3.29 | 0.62 | 2.67 | 2.9 | 0.23 | 2.95 | 0.28 | 3.29 | 0.62 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.76 | 2.86 | 0.1 | 2.93 | 0.17 | 2.95 | 0.19 | 1.96 | 2.49 | 0.53 | 2.59 | 0.63 | 2.43 | 0.47 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 5.37 | 4.22 | -1.15 | 4.03 | -1.34 | 4.25 | -1.12 | 6.31 | 4.48 | -1.83 | 4.26 | -2.05 | 4.98 | -1.33 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 2.51 | 3.62 | 1.11 | 3.62 | 1.11 | 2.77 | 0.26 | 2.45 | 3.79 | 1.34 | 3.52 | 1.07 | 2.99 | 0.54 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5.4 | 4.03 | -1.37 | 3.91 | -1.49 | 4.14 | -1.26 | 4.15 | 4.04 | -0.11 | 3.9 | -0.25 | 3.76 | -0.39 |
| John Danks | CHW | 5.17 | 4.46 | -0.71 | 4.53 | -0.64 | 4.77 | -0.4 | 5.23 | 4.43 | -0.8 | 4.27 | -0.96 | 4.79 | -0.44 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 2.64 | 3.23 | 0.59 | 3.22 | 0.58 | 3.19 | 0.55 | 2 | 3.15 | 1.15 | 2.84 | 0.84 | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.18 | 4.34 | 1.16 | 4.25 | 1.07 | 3.11 | -0.07 | 1.91 | 4.14 | 2.23 | 4.12 | 2.21 | 2.78 | 0.87 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 5.49 | 4.24 | -1.25 | 4.27 | -1.22 | 4.38 | -1.11 | 4.86 | 3.98 | -0.88 | 3.97 | -0.89 | 3.83 | -1.03 |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | ||||||||||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 6.16 | 5.08 | -1.08 | 5.08 | -1.08 | 5.95 | -0.21 | 4.05 | 5.41 | 1.36 | 5.28 | 1.23 | 4.91 | 0.86 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.38 | 3.33 | -0.05 | 3.48 | 0.1 | 3.59 | 0.21 | 3.48 | 3.38 | -0.1 | 3.49 | 0.01 | 4.18 | 0.7 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 4.79 | 3.8 | -0.99 | 4.01 | -0.78 | 4.61 | -0.18 | 2.25 | 2 | -0.25 | 2.16 | -0.09 | 4.36 | 2.11 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.33 | 2.5 | -0.83 | 2.45 | -0.88 | 2.4 | -0.93 | 4.5 | 3.17 | -1.33 | 3 | -1.5 | 3.4 | -1.1 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 4.06 | 3.42 | -0.64 | 3.58 | -0.48 | 3.46 | -0.6 | 2.78 | 3.67 | 0.89 | 3.83 | 1.05 | 2.58 | -0.2 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 4.72 | 4.47 | -0.25 | 4.36 | -0.36 | 4.84 | 0.12 | 4.34 | 4.26 | -0.08 | 4.01 | -0.33 | 4.45 | 0.11 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 4.55 | 5.55 | 1 | 5.45 | 0.9 | 6.76 | 2.21 | 3.6 | 5.96 | 2.36 | 5.67 | 2.07 | 8.91 | 5.31 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.02 | 3.56 | 0.54 | 3.37 | 0.35 | 3.38 | 0.36 | 3.72 | 3.77 | 0.05 | 3.57 | -0.15 | 3.21 | -0.51 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 3.25 | 3.99 | 0.74 | 4.03 | 0.78 | 3.66 | 0.41 | 3.68 | 3.84 | 0.16 | 3.79 | 0.11 | 3.48 | -0.2 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.62 | 3.74 | -0.88 | 3.72 | -0.9 | 4.03 | -0.59 | 4.06 | 3.17 | -0.89 | 3.16 | -0.9 | 3.34 | -0.72 |
Alex Wood has kept the ball down and in the park as we’ve mentioned, but both his 3.2 LOB% and .347 BABIP are likely unsustainable. He had a normal HR rate last year and isn’t inducing contact much harder or softer than the average pitcher. If we give him a little credit for being able to sustain a slightly reduced HR rate, he’s basically an average pitcher with just a 9.8 K-BB%.
Chase Anderson – I’d like to examine him with more time on a shorter slate, but essentially his HR/FB has gone from 13.6% to 4.7%, though he’s started only four of 11 games in below average parks for power. Further, his Hard-Soft rate has gone from 15.7% to 18.9%. It’s great that he’s not walking guys and the HRs might not show up tonight in a great park, but it’s something to watch. There’s nothing wrong with a league average pitcher though. The D’Backs could use a few more of them.
Clayton Kershaw has just a .196 BABIP over his last three starts that’s brought his season rate into range while a 95.2 LOB% brought his season rate up to 70.2%. A 7.1 HR/FB has only brought his season rate down to 15.9% though.
Danny Salazar had a 10.0 HR/FB last season, but a .343 BABIP and 24.3 LD%. As we mentioned above, he’s still allowing roughly the same amount of hard contact, but this year, they’re leaving the park at a higher rate. The LD% and BABIP have dropped probably because he’s inducing a lot more soft contact as well, but that’s coming from his medium contact unfortunately. This is why his ERA matches his FIP this year, but not the other estimators. The good news is that his GB% has spiked 11.5 points to 46% so the overall number of HRs allowed isn’t as bad as it could be and that rate should drop at least a little bit.
David Price – The 6.2 HR/FB is a little low, but that’s not the only issue for the gap here. The Detroit defensive unit has surprisingly been one of the best in the league as you can see from UZR and BABIP allowed, but Price has seven unearned runs this year, nearly 22% of his total. Unearned runs are difficult because if you give up a HR after you should have been out of an inning, you still made a bad pitch. That’s one of the better arguments in favor of removing sequencing from the equation.
Jesse Chavez has enhanced his success with a 4.5 HR/FB. HRs have actually been a big issue for him throughout his career (11.0 HR/FB), but the parks of the AL West are mostly a benefit, as he hasn’t started a game in a power-friendly park yet. His HR rate will probably balance out a bit once he does, dragging his ERA up a bit.
Mike Fiers has a ridiculous 40.8 Hard%, which is easily worst in the majors among qualified pitchers, but also has a 20.7 Soft%, which is one of the higher marks in the league. You might have guessed that he’s the only pitcher in the majors that allows a medium contact rate below 44% (do the math, it’s all here for you). This had been showing up in his HR rate, which is now down to a perfectly round average 10.0%, but we’re going to give the parks just as much credit as him here. All seven of his HRs have come in the seven of 12 outings he’s pitched in power friendly parks, including Milwaukee. The .379 BABIP has shown up in a 24.3 LD% though. This is a pitcher who had a .224 BABIP last year and has never had one between .270 and .319 in parts of five major league seasons now despite a career .307 average. He does have a career 13.0 IFFB% with a strong Z-Contact%, so who knows what to think.
Yordano Ventura has allowed five of his seven HRs in six road starts for a total 13.7 HR/FB. He’s pitching on the road tonight, but in a park that kills power. His 12.2 K-BB% is actually a smidge better than last season and perfectly league average. The BABIP is quite normal, but might even be a bit lower due to his exceptional defense (.264 team allowed). The one caveat being that he’s a pronounced ground ball pitcher this year (1.92 GB/FB) with a 31.1 Hard% that doesn’t show up in his 19.9 LD%. That likely means a lot of hard contact on the ground. His 68.7 LOB% has a decent shot to adjust up too.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | ATL | 0.292 | 0.347 | 0.055 | 9.5% | 90.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.291 | 0.291 | 0 | 6.3% | 91.7% |
| Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 0.284 | 0.419 | 0.135 | 7.7% | 86.9% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.303 | 0.310 | 0.007 | 10.9% | 87.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.294 | 0.307 | 0.013 | 13.6% | 78.0% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.316 | 0.313 | -0.003 | 9.8% | 79.9% |
| David Price | DET | 0.284 | 0.288 | 0.004 | 12.4% | 83.6% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.280 | 0.317 | 0.037 | 15.2% | 85.1% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.283 | 0.240 | -0.043 | 15.6% | 87.6% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.272 | 0.244 | -0.028 | 15.0% | 85.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.297 | 0.267 | -0.03 | 8.3% | 91.0% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.297 | 0.255 | -0.042 | 1.4% | 86.4% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.301 | 0.328 | 0.027 | 5.5% | 86.9% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.286 | 0.293 | 0.007 | 14.9% | 84.4% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.293 | 0.297 | 0.004 | 5.5% | 91.1% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.319 | 0.325 | 0.006 | 8.5% | 84.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.281 | 0.248 | -0.033 | 13.2% | 84.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.320 | 0.319 | -0.001 | 13.6% | 91.5% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.297 | 0.302 | 0.005 | 23.5% | 86.6% |
| Kevin Correia | PHI | 0.305 | ||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.310 | 0.272 | -0.038 | 8.5% | 90.4% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.283 | 0.276 | -0.007 | 16.1% | 88.3% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.276 | 0.333 | 0.057 | 10.5% | 84.2% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.298 | 0.347 | 0.049 | 8.6% | 87.1% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 0.305 | 0.379 | 0.074 | 17.1% | 84.2% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 0.311 | 0.276 | -0.035 | 3.6% | 91.4% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 0.297 | 0.261 | -0.036 | 10.3% | 89.5% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.282 | 0.301 | 0.019 | 15.2% | 87.4% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 0.288 | 0.273 | -0.015 | 11.8% | 91.3% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.265 | 0.294 | 0.029 | 7.8% | 92.2% |
Felix Hernandez has a .240 BABIP (and 83.6 LOB%), but doesn’t have a gap in the ERA chart because a 17.8 HR/FB wipes that out. He has posted low BABIPs in three other previous seasons, including last year, but 2014’s .258 mark has been his previous best. His 18.0 LD% is solid and his 15.6 IFFB% is only his 2nd time in double digits. The real kicker is a 60.0 GB% for the first time since 2007. Pair that with his 2.4 Hard-Soft% and a solid defense and you might have the recipe here. Expect just a small rise in his BABIP at this point. I wouldn’t worry about his HR/FB with a perfectly league average career rate, but you’d then also have to say the same about his IFFB%.
Michael Pineda – Contact authority rates don’t really correlate as well with BABIP as overall performance, but with just an 18.7 LD% and league average 10.3 HR/FB, his 30.7 Hard% is likely a part of his issues with a .347 BABIP. This is just my theory, but I feel these rates probably work more strongly together with BABIP in heavy ground ball pitchers and that is what Pineda has turned himself into this year (1.84 GB/FB). Better defensive positioning or shifting may be able to benefit his BABIP.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Alex Wood should be fine, but I’m not sure I want to pay an above average price (meaning higher) for a guy whose value is mostly tied up in keeping the ball in the park. That said, it’s a fine matchup in a good park.
Chase Anderson looks to be in a tough spot against a really good offense, but I think his price tag is either understating the park adjustment necessary or his own ability. He’s very affordable and that’s not just compared to today’s higher than normal prices with a lot of Aces on the mound. He might not generate a lot of strikeouts, but that’s not necessary for his cost tonight. He’s profiles as a league average pitcher facing an offense that adjusts down to league average in a great park at a very good price. That normally equates to excess value.
Clayton Kershaw is not only looking like a pitching God again, but has the likely second-best park adjusted matchup with the highest expected K rate. He’s easily the #1 overall guy today without regard to cost. Adding an exorbitant cost into still leaves him as potentially one of the top values. Why? Enormous K floor: he’s struck out fewer than eight just four times in 12 starts and two of those were seven Ks.
Danny Salazar has a lot of upside, but not a great matchup. The intriguing and attractive part are that he and Pineda slot in slightly cheaper than the four top guys on the salary chart. He obviously has similar upside, but less of a track record and more risk. He’s an alternate GPP option for sure.
David Price – Cleveland’s strong K-BB rates pull down his upside to the point where I’m not sure he’s a real bargain tonight. I have him among the top quarter of performers overall tonight, but potentially just outside the top 5. I like the other top pitchers with better matchups a bit more tonight.
Felix Hernandez has an excellent track record and a top matchup from a strikeout rate standpoint. From strikeouts alone, I have him close to, but just behind Kershaw tonight. Walks and HRs have plagued him a bit this year though and Houston is the kind of team that can play on a weakness like that. I still have him as one of my top 5 overall guys tonight, a bit above Price, but with a higher price tag too, I’m not too sure about the overall value benefit here either. The range of outcomes here is wider with different risks obviously. He’s a great GPP play and not a terrible double up one, but if I’m paying up this much, I’m probably trying to squeeze in Kershaw if I can.
Jaime Garcia – From a pure numbers standpoint, throwing out the sample sizes, the stats tell me Garcia is the top value today by an enormous margin. He has a 2.94 xFIP over 70 total innings the last two seasons. The issue a real person who isn’t a calculator might have with this is that his SwStr% is way down and the Royals limit his strikeout upside even further. That said, he has the lowest expected walk rate of the night and should have some success at home against a team that contrasts the amount of hard contact he’s given up. He’s one of the more attractive mid-range guys tonight.
Jesse Chavez probably has some regression in his HR rate and the Angels aren’t as good of a matchup for a RHP as they were a few weeks ago, but LA still is a pitcher’s park and he’s pitched well for Oakland. He and Garcia are probably my two favorite mid-range picks tonight.
Madison Bumgarner isn’t Kershaw and might not have as much strikeout upside as Felix either, but is in a great spot tonight and probably would be the double up pitcher I’m looking at tonight where I can afford Kershaw (or maybe find a way to squeeze both in if it’s possible). I’m looking at the 11 Ks more than the five runs he allowed in a hitter’s park against a bad team last time out. Tonight it’s another bad team, though not a terrible offense, but in an extreme pitcher’s park. He’s my #2 overall guy tonight (Felix carries more upside, but more risk) and also probably not too far from Kershaw in value.
Michael Pineda has faced the Orioles twice this year and struck out 25 of 53 batters. That just needed to be repeated. They skipped his last start, but only to keep his innings low for the season. Putting him next to Salazar (because they’re priced similarly just below the top guys), they have similar risks, but I like him to hit his upside more often. I actually have him rated very close to Felix in my top five overall today due to a top expected K-BB rate tonight.
Mike Fiers is a rare upside play that carries some risk at the mid-range price point tonight. Bryce Harper might tee off on a pitch or two tonight, but the rest of that offense shouldn’t scare you. Like Salazar, I see him as sort of an alternate in GPPs with not as much upside, but some and that’s reflected in the difference in price tags.
Yordano Ventura is another potentially contrarian mid-range price tag that I don’t love, but wouldn’t hate consider using. With Holliday out, I think he might be in a better spot here than a lot of people may realize. I’m just not sure you can expect enough upside to push his value far beyond his price tag. There’s a good chance he’s ok though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.