Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, September 18th
We’ve recovered from a small technical snafu that left us without a salary chart on Wednesday and things are back to normal today. Or as close to normal as daily fantasy baseball can ever be. If you played on a short slate last night, you may have noticed an ugly pitching situation absent any reliable arms (Kluber coming off injury), but tonight shows no such thing with several aces ready to do their parts to lead you to profit. Let’s see if we can figure out the best spots.
For those new to this column or DFS baseball in general, what we try to do here is use advanced stats to come to conclusions that casual fans may not when they look at things like Wins or even ERA, which don’t always paint the correct picture.
Sometimes we just enforce the obvious conclusion, but occasionally we discover some interesting things and find ourselves off the beaten path, which can be a good thing.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -4.8 | 4.97 | 5.58 | 0.63 | 0.98 | 5.12 | 3.73 | ATL | 86 | 78 | 60 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 21.5% | 8.5% | 12.0% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 2.4 | 4.16 | 5.7 | 1.02 | 1.05 | 4.31 | 4.49 | MIN | 104 | 99 | 123 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 21.3% | 10.6% | 13.0% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 1.9 | 3.11 | 2.83 | 1.07 | 2.86 | 1.03 | MIL | 88 | 82 | 72 | 27.8% | 9.5% | 17.2% | 11.9% | 9.0% | |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -4.3 | 4.24 | 5.76 | 1.69 | 1.4 | 4.04 | 4.69 | SDG | 81 | 91 | 57 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 20.4% | 11.6% | 5.1% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -6.3 | 2.53 | 6.68 | 1.09 | 0.94 | 2.68 | 3.24 | CLE | 110 | 101 | 108 | 23.7% | 7.0% | 23.3% | 12.4% | 9.9% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 2.1 | 4.75 | 5.92 | 1.51 | 0.94 | 4.84 | 4.52 | CHW | 92 | 93 | 113 | 16.1% | 6.8% | 19.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 4.3 | 4.06 | 5.85 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 4.21 | 4.9 | STL | 93 | 101 | 116 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 22.3% | 11.7% | 9.4% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 6.2 | 3.51 | 5.71 | 0.81 | 0.94 | 3.8 | 2.9 | BAL | 86 | 83 | 115 | 24.5% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 13.1% | 12.2% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | -6.2 | 4.67 | 5.09 | 1.18 | 1.01 | 4.82 | 4.71 | HOU | 109 | 104 | 94 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 20.4% | 15.1% | 8.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -6.9 | 3.57 | 5.85 | 1.03 | 1.4 | 3.46 | 3.94 | COL | 94 | 92 | 5 | 23.3% | 7.2% | 21.2% | 12.3% | 8.8% |
| James Paxton | SEA | -3.9 | 4.03 | 5.66 | 1.83 | 1.08 | 4.07 | 5.18 | TEX | 104 | 90 | 150 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 17.2% | 10.2% | 13.3% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -2.1 | 4.15 | 5.75 | 1.89 | 0.89 | 3.79 | 3.26 | LOS | 113 | 109 | 109 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 22.8% | 10.2% | 7.6% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 7.7 | 3.39 | 6.91 | 1.25 | 1.05 | 3.12 | 4.56 | DET | 107 | 100 | 105 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 21.1% | 12.4% | 10.2% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.6 | 2.4 | 6.2 | 1.36 | 1.03 | 2.31 | 1.84 | WAS | 102 | 97 | 112 | 28.7% | 7.8% | 25.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.4 | 4.06 | 6.47 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 4.67 | 5.02 | KAN | 92 | 102 | 106 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 20.1% | 7.8% | 13.4% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -0.8 | 3.84 | 6. | 1.2 | 1.05 | 3.98 | 5.51 | CHC | 97 | 98 | 98 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 20.4% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 4.5 | 2.96 | 6.7 | 1.23 | 0.87 | 2.78 | 3.26 | ARI | 95 | 98 | 117 | 23.8% | 6.2% | 22.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -1.7 | 3.23 | 5.96 | 1.98 | 1.05 | 2.91 | 4.63 | BOS | 86 | 98 | 105 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 16.8% | 12.3% | 7.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -5.6 | 3 | 6.65 | 1.49 | 0.88 | 3.02 | 2.14 | NYM | 100 | 98 | 108 | 22.8% | 6.6% | 19.9% | 12.3% | 14.2% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -4.4 | 2.89 | 6.74 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 3.18 | 3.41 | FLA | 90 | 82 | 101 | 22.5% | 4.6% | 21.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 1.6 | 3.57 | 5.98 | 0.85 | 1.01 | 3.64 | 4.14 | OAK | 93 | 98 | 104 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 19.1% | 12.6% | 9.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.8 | 4.84 | 5.47 | 1.79 | 1.05 | 4.56 | 4.07 | ANA | 89 | 98 | 98 | 16.5% | 6.4% | 21.0% | 14.2% | 8.1% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -1 | 3.77 | 6.3 | 1.53 | 1.05 | 3.66 | 4.01 | TOR | 125 | 112 | 135 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 20.2% | 16.7% | 11.4% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 2.3 | 4.13 | 5.83 | 1.49 | 0.87 | 3.84 | 4.03 | SFO | 116 | 109 | 159 | 18.3% | 8.0% | 20.8% | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 1.6 | 3.98 | 6. | 1.25 | 0.88 | 4.67 | 4.03 | NYY | 103 | 111 | 83 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 10.5% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 5.5 | 4.92 | 6.6 | 1.76 | 0.94 | 4.9 | TAM | 98 | 95 | 80 | ||||||
| Williams Perez | ATL | -0.7 | 4.99 | 5.6 | 1.71 | 0.98 | 4.86 | 3.42 | PHI | 85 | 84 | 62 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 21.5% | 11.6% | 7.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 5 | 4.14 | 5.85 | 1.73 | 1.08 | 4.15 | 4.41 | SEA | 97 | 99 | 107 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 19.1% | 14.8% | 7.5% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | -5.1 | 4.95 | 5. | 2.27 | 1.07 | 5.2 | 4.51 | CIN | 86 | 91 | 92 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 23.2% | 11.6% | 8.1% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.9 | 3.05 | 6.56 | 1.55 | 0.89 | 2.86 | 2.67 | PIT | 93 | 99 | 89 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 20.1% | 11.7% | 7.8% |
Chris Sale has now dropped just behind Kershaw in the major league K% lead and down to 3rd in SwStr%, but still has a 27.9 K-BB% on the season with just a 3.0 Hard-Soft%. He’s allowed at least three ERs in four of his last five, lasting only three innings in his last start, but has been more dominant that his ERA suggests and we’ll get into why a little more below. Cleveland is an above average offense that relies on great plate discipline. The have a -8.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week with a 5.5 HR/FB, but just a 6.5 K-BB%. A downward park adjustment makes them a neutral opponent.
Drew Smyly has not allowed a run with double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three starts, giving him an amazing 22.4 K-BB% in nine starts this season. He has a 15.5 K-BB% at home since last season and in a favorable park with a great defense, he faces a poor road offense (17.4 K-BB%) and an even worse one vs LHP (17.6 K-BB%). They do have an 18.5 Hard-Soft% and 17.9 HR/FB over the last week, but play in a power suppressing environment tonight, park adjusting to a great matchup.
Ian Kennedy has allowed 13 runs over his last 9.2 IP and now travels to Colorado, so why am I even bothering? He has an above average K% for the season and a 31.3 K% over the last month and while he’s allowed 29 HRs this season, hasn’t allowed more than one in any of his last 11 starts. Does this make him playable in Colorado? Consider that the Rockies are a below average offense even at home and against RHP. Over the last week (all on the road of course) they have a -3.9 Hard-Soft%, 4.3 HR/FB, and 28.2 K%. They are the coldest offense in the majors and even with the massive upward lift, they only rate as a slightly unfavorable opponent. Will a banged up lineup carry their road woes home?
Jeff Locke has suddenly struck out 13 of his last 47 batters. He has a well below average K% and 9.4 K-BB%, but an average SwStr%. That seemed to be the case last year also, so we don’t know if it should leave one optimistic. He does generate 2.08 times more grounders than fly balls, though with a few too many line drives (24.8%), despite a 5.2 Hard-Soft%. He travels to Los Angeles to face a tough Dodger team both at home and vs LHP, but they are banged up and park adjust down to a neutral matchup here. They’ve been putting out some less than optimal lineups vs LHP over the last week.
Johnny Cueto has allowed at least four ERs in each of his last five starts with four or fewer strikeouts in four of those starts and a 50.0 Hard-Soft% over his last two. There have been a lot of terrible things happening for the Royals when this man throws a baseball. The good news is that the velocity has been stable and he maintains a double-digit SwStr% over the last month. Detroit is not a favorable matchup here, either with or without a park adjustment, but have a 1.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Jose Fernandez was stopped at 69 pitches, which was enough to get him through five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in the 17 batters he faced. He has a 26.1 K-BB% this season and 27.0 K-BB% plus a 6.1 HR/FB on the road since last season. Five or six innings and 75 to 80 pitches might be enough to get a satisfactory line out of him. The Nats are an average offense with some power and a 21% strikeout rate at home, vs RHP, and over the last week. A small upward bump makes them a slightly unfavorable matchup.
Madison Bumgarner is frequently over-shadowed by another tall dominant lefty pitching on the west coast, but has been pitching nearly as well, especially recently, coming off a one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts. A 22.9 K-BB% is tied for 5th in the majors with a 23.0 K-BB% at home since last season. He faces a neutral offense that is sometimes over-rated due to a friendly home park, but tonight they travel to one of the toughest run environments in baseball, making them a very favorable park adjusted opponent.
Marcus Stroman and his super healing powers was very mediocre in his first start of the season, but it was Yankee Stadium and he allowed a -5.9 Hard-Soft% on contact, so we can give him a break. He has a career 14.6 K-BB% with a 4.2 Hard-Soft% and a 17.6 K-BB% at home. Although it’s a power-friendly park, Stroman has just a 6.3 HR/FB at home. Boston has just a 17.7 K% vs RHP, but is a poor road offense and has struck out 23.9% over the last week, though with a 20.6 Hard-Soft%. They adjust up to a neutral matchup in an offensive environment.
Masahiro Tanaka has struck out 17 of 57 batters while allowing a single ER in 15 innings over his last two starts at home against the mighty Blue Jays and Orioles. That’s some impressive work. He has an 18.8 K-BB% this season and a 21.2 K-BB% on the road in his career. The long ball (16.3 HR/FB this year, 17.9 HR/FB on the road since last season) has always been his issue either at home or on the road. The Mets have cooled down a bit (though with an amazing 3.4 K-BB% over the last week) and are a neutral offense that park adjusts down to a favorable matchup here.
Max Scherzer had one of his better outings in a while with eight shutout innings despite just six strikeouts against these same Marlins last time out. His 26.1 K-BB% is 3rd best in baseball. It’s been a bit of a struggle for him at times since the AS break, but the stuff remains dominant as it’s more of a location thing leading to too many HRs. He’s allowed multiple bombs in five of his last 10 starts. That’s unlikely to happen against the worst offense vs RHP in the game. The Marlins are a favorable matchup even with a small upward park adjustment.
Mike Fiers has exactly the same 15.3 K-BB% with his new team as he had with his old this year. The difference is that he’s significantly closed the gap from allowing the most hard contact in the majors to just a 0.0 Hard-Soft% with the Astros. Oakland is not a team that strikes out a lot, but they do not hit the ball hard (5.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) and are a fairly neutral opponent with little adjustment for run environment.
Zack Greinke has a high strand rate, but still a great 19.4 K-BB% with a 5.6 Hard-Soft% and consistently pitches deep into games (more than six innings in 20 of 29 starts and never less). He has a 21.3 K-BB% at home since last season. The Pirates are a slightly below average road offense (15.0 K-BB%) that adjusts down to a very favorable park adjusted matchup here.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Steven Matz (.217 BABIP – 100 LOB% – 16.7 HR/FB) – There is a lot of talent there and it’s been only four total starts split in half by a DL trip, but he’s struggled with command since returning from injury and has just an average 13.5 K-BB%. He also faces the 3rd best offense vs LHP.
Yovani Gallardo (.286 BABIP – 76.7 LOB% – 8.9 HR/FB) – You’ll notice there’s nothing wrong with these numbers. He’s a rare ERA gapper without any of these numbers being unsustainable. He does have just a 6.2 K-BB% and average 8.9 Hard-Soft%. A low strikeout rate makes him less useful for daily fantasy than real life with no other real stand out qualities and Seattle hits the ball hard.
Andrew Heaney (.289 BABIP – 78.4 LOB% – 7.2 HR/FB) – Calling the AL LA stadium home, that HR rate might seem more sustainable, but he has a 19.2 Hard-Soft% with a 0.95 GB/FB. Minnesota (where he pitches tonight) chokes LH power, but is fairly neutral for RH power. The strand rate is probably a bit too high as well, but it all comes down to him being seemingly over-valued.
Justin Verlander (.266 BABIP – 68.8 LOB% – 7.5 HR/FB) – All three of these numbers are pretty borderline, but he has a nearly average 13.8 K-BB% too and has reverted back to his more recent form over his last three starts with just 14 strikeouts over his last 19.2 innings. Of course, it doesn’t help that he faces the low strikeout Royals, who also have a 20.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Cody Anderson (236 BABIP – 69.5 LOB5 – 9.7 HR/FB) – He has just a 6.1 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rubby de la Rosa gets a major upgrade in park and in many cases this would make him useable due to it being more likely the ball stays in the park (31 HRs is tied for the most in the majors), but the San Francisco offense is not only very good, but red hot. They are an unfavorable matchup even in, perhaps, the most pitcher-friendly park in the majors.
Williams Perez – The two best offenses to face are in this game, but, unfortunately, the pitching is so bad, we can’t even use them. At least Morgan has an interesting SwStr%. There’s nothing interesting here.
Rick Porcello has a .260 BABIP and 81.2 LOB% over the last month. A 26.6 K% looks much better than his 7.9 SwStr% and he faces the Toronto Maulers.
Chad Bettis – In a vacuum, a 1.4 park run factor essentially means a team with a 75 wRC+ would be an above average offense in Coors. That equates the Padres to something close to a top three offensive team on a neutral field.
Adam Morgan does grab your interest with a 9.8 SwStr% and the Braves do strike out at a league average rate against LHP, while maintaining everything else that makes them awful, but he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.63 GB/FB) with a 14.0 Hard-Soft% and 14 HRs in just 78.1 IP.
Mike Pelfrey has no upside in an 11.7 K%.
James Paxton takes his .265 BABIP and standard HR rate from Safeco to Texas to face the raging Ranger offense.
Brandon Finnegan is a talented arm you may remember as a 2014 first round draft pick that ended up pitching out of the pen for the Royals in the post-season and has since been traded for Johnny Cueto. He has a live arm, but little minor league experience and gets his first major league start after 27 relief innings split between the Royals and Reds this year. The double-digit walk rate at every stop of the way this year (five of them between minors and majors) might stop him from making it too far. The Brewers are a poor team vs LHP, but in a tough park and he’s allowed eight HRs in just under 85 total professional innings this season.
Felix Doubront has turned back into Felix Doubront (15 ERs over his last 16.1 IP).
Tyler Wilson gets his 3rd start, but with two very long relief outings in between. He is 25 with no prospect hype and just a 2.0 K-BB% in 24.2 innings and didn’t exhibit much of an ability to miss bats in the minors this year either.
Zachary Davies has had two bad starts out of his three and a below average K% in two different minor league systems at AAA this year.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 13.9% | 5.2% | Road | 14.7% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 17.3% | 5.2% | Road | 17.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 10.4% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 25.7% | 11.0% | Road | 28.6% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 11.1% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 16.9% | 8.3% | Home | 15.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 31.3% | 5.2% | Road | 31.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 2.2% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 11.4% | 5.4% | Home | 11.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 18.0% | 5.0% | Home | 17.1% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 23.3% | 6.5% | Home | 22.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 6.7% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 15.0% | 8.7% | Road | 16.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 24.1% | 7.8% | Road | 25.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 19.6% | 9.4% | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 20.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 17.0% | 8.0% | Road | 16.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 8.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 23.4% | 6.0% | Road | 26.4% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 6.3% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 33.1% | 6.1% | Road | 33.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 5.9% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.4% | 7.0% | Home | 16.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 7.1% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 22.0% | 8.4% | Road | 20.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 26.1% | 4.6% | Home | 28.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 1.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 20.3% | 5.4% | Home | 22.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.7% | 4.3% | Road | 25.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 1.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.5% | 5.5% | Home | 28.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | 25.0% | 7.9% | Home | 25.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 11.9% | 7.9% | Home | 13.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 2.5% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 18.0% | 5.0% | Road | 17.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 8.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 17.9% | 7.4% | Road | 18.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 5.4% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 22.9% | 9.4% | Home | 20.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | 7.1% | 5.1% | Road | 4.9% | 2.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Williams Perez | Braves | 14.1% | 10.5% | Home | 15.1% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 16.8% | 7.5% | Home | 16.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 9.3% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | 15.2% | 12.1% | Home | 15.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 24.5% | 4.8% | Home | 25.8% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.9% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 18.4% | 8.7% | LH | 20.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.4% |
| Twins | Home | 19.1% | 7.1% | LH | 20.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.0% | 10.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.0% | 7.6% | LH | 21.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.3% | 7.1% |
| Padres | Road | 21.5% | 7.1% | RH | 21.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.1% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.5% | LH | 19.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.6% | 5.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.0% | 7.9% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.9% | 6.5% | LH | 23.2% | 5.6% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.5% |
| Astros | Home | 24.4% | 8.5% | LH | 21.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 6.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.0% | 6.6% | RH | 20.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.4% | 8.3% | LH | 22.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 9.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 8.4% | LH | 20.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.6% | 7.4% | RH | 20.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.0% | 9.1% | RH | 21.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.7% |
| Royals | Road | 16.8% | 5.5% | RH | 15.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.2% | 9.6% | RH | 24.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 6.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.5% | 7.5% | LH | 21.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 7.7% | RH | 17.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.6% |
| Mets | Home | 20.0% | 8.5% | RH | 19.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 15.7% | 12.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.7% | 5.8% | RH | 19.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 17.0% | 4.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.8% | RH | 18.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.9% |
| Angels | Road | 18.8% | 7.1% | RH | 19.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.5% | 5.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.9% | 9.5% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.6% |
| Giants | Home | 18.1% | 7.8% | RH | 18.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.8% | 8.8% | LH | 19.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.2% |
| Rays | Home | 23.0% | 7.3% | RH | 21.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.0% | 5.8% | RH | 20.6% | 6.0% | L7Days | 32.0% | 6.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.6% | 7.6% | RH | 21.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.9% | 10.6% |
| Reds | Road | 20.0% | 7.5% | RH | 19.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.4% | 11.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.0% | 7.0% | RH | 20.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 19.7% | 10.9% | 10.9% | Road | 23.9% | 10.0% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 21.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | Road | 18.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 7.7% | 23.1% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | 17.9% | 16.7% | 22.2% | Road | 20.5% | 16.7% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 22.9% | 13.3% | 3.3% | Home | 27.2% | 18.6% | 1.7% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 20.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | Road | 20.5% | 11.5% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 20.6% | 9.7% | 12.5% | Home | 16.7% | 10.3% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 19.8% | 11.9% | 10.7% | Home | 19.1% | 9.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 20.2% | 10.6% | 14.6% | Home | 19.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Felix Doubront | Athletics | 20.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | Road | 17.9% | 13.8% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 21.9% | 12.2% | 7.8% | Road | 23.1% | 15.2% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 18.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% | Road | 14.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 22.8% | 13.2% | 7.4% | Road | 22.9% | 10.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 20.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | Road | 19.2% | 11.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 30.8% | 15.4% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 23.8% | 6.6% | 9.2% | Road | 22.8% | 6.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.1% | 6.9% | 11.8% | Home | 16.3% | 6.9% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 21.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 20.4% | 6.7% | 10.3% | Road | 18.7% | 5.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 21.7% | 9.6% | 12.4% | Home | 24.4% | 8.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 17.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | Home | 15.1% | 6.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 21.9% | 15.3% | 9.9% | Road | 20.7% | 17.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | Home | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | 19.4% | 9.9% | 13.9% | Home | 20.9% | 12.8% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 18.2% | 4.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 22.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | Home | 22.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 21.7% | 12.2% | 8.8% | Road | 21.0% | 12.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 23.1% | 15.4% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 19.7% | 15.4% | 8.2% | Road | 18.2% | 16.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | 12.9% | 16.7% | 8.3% | Home | 11.1% | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | 17.9% | 0.0% | 4.0% | Road | 25.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Williams Perez | Braves | 20.3% | 11.7% | 3.2% | Home | 24.5% | 12.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 20.6% | 10.5% | 6.7% | Home | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | 25.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% | Home | 35.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | Home | 22.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 10.8% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 21.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | LH | 21.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 17.4% | 4.9% | 22.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.2% | 12.4% | 11.1% | LH | 19.5% | 12.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.8% | 14.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.6% | 11.5% | 7.3% | LH | 18.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Padres | Road | 19.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | RH | 19.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% |
| Indians | Home | 23.5% | 8.5% | 11.3% | LH | 22.8% | 8.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.9% | 5.5% | 20.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | RH | 21.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.2% | 14.5% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | RH | 22.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 20.5% | 7.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.8% | 12.5% | 11.3% | LH | 20.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 17.9% | 13.4% |
| Astros | Home | 17.8% | 17.4% | 10.0% | LH | 19.7% | 13.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.5% | 13.7% | 9.0% | RH | 21.1% | 14.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 16.6% | 4.3% | 15.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.7% | 12.5% | 8.7% | LH | 18.7% | 12.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 17.3% | 9.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 13.0% | 8.8% | LH | 22.4% | 11.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 12.1% | 13.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | RH | 21.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 1.9% | 5.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.4% | 13.7% | 8.5% | RH | 20.9% | 13.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 18.0% | 9.8% |
| Royals | Road | 22.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | RH | 21.0% | 9.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 14.3% | 15.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.8% | 13.6% | 10.5% | RH | 20.1% | 13.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.2% | 10.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.5% | 11.8% | 9.5% | LH | 19.6% | 12.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.6% | 9.9% | 11.2% | RH | 20.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 15.0% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Home | 21.5% | 11.8% | 12.3% | RH | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 8.6% | 14.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.6% | 11.9% | 8.1% | RH | 20.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.7% | 5.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | RH | 20.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 13.9% | 7.6% |
| Angels | Road | 19.0% | 10.9% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 11.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 17.7% | 6.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.9% | 15.5% | 14.0% | RH | 19.6% | 15.1% | 12.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 21.4% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Home | 20.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | RH | 21.5% | 10.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.1% | 12.3% | 7.7% | LH | 19.3% | 12.3% | 12.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 14.5% | 11.8% |
| Rays | Home | 21.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | RH | 21.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.7% | 15.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | RH | 22.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.8% | 15.9% | 9.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.9% | 14.0% | 7.3% | RH | 20.0% | 12.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.0% | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | RH | 20.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.0% | 14.6% | 7.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | RH | 21.4% | 10.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 13.9% | 9.8% | 1.42 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 1.71 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 17.7% | 8.6% | 2.06 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 3.00 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 23.2% | 10.4% | 2.23 | 44.4% | 22.2% | 2.00 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 18.7% | 9.6% | 1.95 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 1.78 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 32.7% | 14.8% | 2.21 | 32.6% | 11.5% | 2.83 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 11.4% | 7.9% | 1.44 | 13.8% | 7.6% | 1.82 |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 17.2% | 6.3% | 2.73 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 2.22 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 27.9% | 11.9% | 2.34 | 26.5% | 12.3% | 2.15 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 17.0% | 9.2% | 1.85 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 2.14 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 23.9% | 10.0% | 2.39 | 31.3% | 12.1% | 2.59 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 18.4% | 6.9% | 2.67 | 26.7% | 10.6% | 2.52 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.6% | 9.3% | 1.89 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 1.79 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 21.2% | 10.3% | 2.06 | 15.5% | 10.1% | 1.53 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 31.9% | 13.9% | 2.29 | 41.2% | 10.1% | 4.08 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.23 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 22.8% | 9.2% | 2.48 | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.08 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 27.0% | 12.7% | 2.13 | 28.4% | 13.1% | 2.17 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 9.1% | 6.4% | 1.42 | 9.1% | 6.4% | 1.42 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 23.4% | 11.8% | 1.98 | 23.9% | 10.8% | 2.21 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.4% | 15.3% | 1.92 | 26.8% | 16.2% | 1.65 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 23.9% | 9.4% | 2.54 | 26.9% | 10.3% | 2.61 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.7% | 5.7% | 2.05 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 1.84 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 19.8% | 8.3% | 2.39 | 26.6% | 7.9% | 3.37 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 18.7% | 11.3% | 1.65 | 17.4% | 10.6% | 1.64 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.49 | 18.2% | 6.5% | 2.80 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 7.1% | 5.7% | 1.25 | |||
| Williams Perez | ATL | 14.1% | 6.1% | 2.31 | 14.2% | 7.6% | 1.87 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 14.9% | 6.4% | 2.33 | 13.5% | 4.6% | 2.93 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 15.2% | 9.6% | 1.58 | 15.2% | 9.6% | 1.58 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 23.9% | 12.0% | 1.99 | 24.2% | 13.3% | 1.82 |
Chris Sale – There was nothing wrong with his SwStr% over the last month, it’s just been lower than it has all season, though he’s maintained his K%. He’s been below 10% in three of his last four starts, though with a low of 8.4%.
Johnny Cueto – As previously mentioned, the good news is that he’s retained his SwStr% despite the significant drop in K% over the last month.
Max Scherzer has actually seen a small bump to his SwStr% over the last month and only has four performances below 11.8% all season.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 4.6 | 4.96 | 0.36 | 5.18 | 0.58 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 5.46 | 4.26 | -1.2 | 4.46 | -1 | 4.93 | -0.53 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 3.32 | 4.19 | 0.87 | 4.33 | 1.01 | 3.67 | 0.35 | 5.47 | 4.48 | -0.99 | 4.68 | -0.79 | 4.1 | -1.37 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 2.67 | 3.69 | 1.02 | 3.72 | 1.05 | 4.41 | 1.74 | 0 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.59 | 4.17 | -0.42 | 3.97 | -0.62 | 4.14 | -0.45 | 3.63 | 4.03 | 0.4 | 3.79 | 0.16 | 3.77 | 0.14 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.55 | 2.46 | -1.09 | 2.55 | -1 | 2.55 | -1 | 4.75 | 2.39 | -2.36 | 2.38 | -2.37 | 3.11 | -1.64 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 3.68 | 4.75 | 1.07 | 4.41 | 0.73 | 4.2 | 0.52 | 2.35 | 4.72 | 2.37 | 4.36 | 2.01 | 3.58 | 1.23 |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 3.87 | 4.5 | 0.63 | 4.72 | 0.85 | 4.87 | 1 | 5.26 | 4.87 | -0.39 | 5.1 | -0.16 | 4.67 | -0.59 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 3.14 | 3.12 | -0.02 | 3.34 | 0.2 | 3.93 | 0.79 | 2.25 | 3.29 | 1.04 | 3.52 | 1.27 | 2.97 | 0.72 |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 4.99 | 4.23 | -0.76 | 4.22 | -0.77 | 4.05 | -0.94 | 5.55 | 4.45 | -1.1 | 4.45 | -1.1 | 4.83 | -0.72 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 4.28 | 3.72 | -0.56 | 3.85 | -0.43 | 4.73 | 0.45 | 4.6 | 3.12 | -1.48 | 3.1 | -1.5 | 3.08 | -1.52 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.82 | 4.46 | 0.64 | 4.4 | 0.58 | 4.25 | 0.43 | 6 | 5.18 | -0.82 | 4.95 | -1.05 | 3.48 | -2.52 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.43 | 4.18 | -0.25 | 3.92 | -0.51 | 3.96 | -0.47 | 5 | 3.73 | -1.27 | 3.31 | -1.69 | 3.78 | -1.22 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 3.47 | 3.69 | 0.22 | 3.71 | 0.24 | 3.54 | 0.07 | 9.57 | 4.23 | -5.34 | 4.37 | -5.2 | 6.15 | -3.42 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.06 | 2.63 | 0.57 | 2.44 | 0.38 | 1.67 | -0.39 | 0 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.58 | 4.17 | 0.59 | 4.38 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 0.12 | 2.52 | 3.83 | 1.31 | 4.08 | 1.56 | 2.59 | 0.07 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.17 | 3.91 | 0.74 | 3.89 | 0.72 | 3.48 | 0.31 | 4.18 | 5.28 | 1.1 | 5.13 | 0.95 | 5 | 0.82 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.91 | 2.95 | 0.04 | 2.94 | 0.03 | 2.71 | -0.2 | 2.62 | 2.71 | 0.09 | 2.61 | -0.01 | 1.84 | -0.78 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 5.4 | 4.63 | -0.77 | 5.32 | -0.08 | 6.75 | 1.35 | 5.4 | 4.63 | -0.77 | 5.32 | -0.08 | 6.75 | 1.35 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.4 | 3.32 | -0.08 | 3.25 | -0.15 | 3.87 | 0.47 | 2.88 | 3 | 0.12 | 3 | 0.12 | 3.23 | 0.35 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.91 | 2.74 | -0.17 | 3.01 | 0.1 | 2.86 | -0.05 | 3.82 | 2.93 | -0.89 | 3.09 | -0.73 | 3.54 | -0.28 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.67 | 3.84 | 0.17 | 4.05 | 0.38 | 3.93 | 0.26 | 2.67 | 3.75 | 1.08 | 4.25 | 1.58 | 4.22 | 1.55 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 4.09 | 4.64 | 0.55 | 4.49 | 0.4 | 4.05 | -0.04 | 6.26 | 4.42 | -1.84 | 4.22 | -2.04 | 4.45 | -1.81 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.06 | 3.84 | -1.22 | 3.88 | -1.18 | 4.47 | -0.59 | 2.15 | 3.01 | 0.86 | 2.97 | 0.82 | 3.49 | 1.34 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.75 | 4.07 | -0.68 | 3.97 | -0.78 | 4.81 | 0.06 | 6.84 | 4.34 | -2.5 | 4.56 | -2.28 | 5.63 | -1.21 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 1.88 | 3.98 | 2.1 | 4.03 | 2.15 | 4.73 | 2.85 | 2.61 | 4.03 | 1.42 | 3.9 | 1.29 | 5.27 | 2.66 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 2.19 | 4.91 | 2.72 | 4.8 | 2.61 | 3.31 | 1.12 | |||||||
| Williams Perez | ATL | 5.36 | 4.99 | -0.37 | 4.96 | -0.4 | 5 | -0.36 | 8.51 | 4.45 | -4.06 | 4.21 | -4.3 | 5.2 | -3.31 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.35 | 4.64 | 1.29 | 4.38 | 1.03 | 4.08 | 0.73 | 3.12 | 4.59 | 1.47 | 4.22 | 1.1 | 4.53 | 1.41 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 6.6 | 4.95 | -1.65 | 4.49 | -2.11 | 4.28 | -2.32 | 6.6 | 4.95 | -1.65 | 4.49 | -2.11 | 4.28 | -2.32 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.61 | 3.24 | 1.63 | 3.2 | 1.59 | 2.69 | 1.08 | 1.78 | 3.2 | 1.42 | 3.26 | 1.48 | 3.23 | 1.45 |
Chris Sale has the lowest strand rate of his career (72.8%), which is basically league average, but also the highest BABIP with a similar batted ball profile to his career numbers, but less frequent hard contact. He also leads the majors in Zone Contact. What’s the problem? More than likely it’s the defense. In three September starts, it’s true that his hard contact has greatly increased (28.8 LD%, 22.2 HR/FB, 34.6 Hard-Soft%), but in a better situation, it’s very likely he’d have a much lower ERA.
Drew Smyly has a .338 BABIP despite a low hard contact rate, but an 87.7 LOB% over the last month.
Ian Kennedy – It’s not even the HR rate that’s gotten him over the last month (11.1 HR/FB). It’s the .347 BABIP and 65.2 LOB% and yes, he’s still allowing a lot of hard contact (20.0 Hard-Soft%).
Jeff Locke has allowed a 29.7 LD% and three HRs over his last five starts despite just a 6.5 Hard-Soft%. This has led to a .322 BABIP and 62.1 LOB%.
Johnny Cueto has had a terrible month with too frequent hard contact, but an average 12.4 K-BB%, .417 BABIP, 55.0 LOB%, and 20.5 HR/FB with a long track record of being good and no discernable velocity drop.
Zack Greinke has a completely unsustainable .234 BABIP, 86.6 LOB%, and 6.8 HR/FB that are all far away from his career numbers, but he’s still a very good pitcher who is also generating more weak contact this season.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.318 | 0.273 | -0.045 | 10.9% | 86.8% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.287 | 0.289 | 0.002 | 9.0% | 90.9% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.291 | 0.200 | -0.091 | 21.4% | 85.5% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.315 | 0.308 | -0.007 | 4.7% | 92.9% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.312 | 0.326 | 0.014 | 9.5% | 78.2% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.292 | 0.236 | -0.056 | 12.5% | 89.7% |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 0.293 | 0.264 | -0.029 | 10.9% | 91.8% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.282 | 0.296 | 0.014 | 13.3% | 87.0% |
| Felix Doubront | OAK | 0.286 | 0.342 | 0.056 | 11.7% | 86.6% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.300 | 0.285 | -0.015 | 8.4% | 86.0% |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.294 | 0.265 | -0.029 | 8.8% | 91.7% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.304 | 0.309 | 0.005 | 6.7% | 85.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.286 | 0.272 | -0.014 | 11.6% | 86.5% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.012 | 8.8% | 84.1% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.303 | 0.266 | -0.037 | 13.0% | 85.2% |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.296 | 0.320 | 0.024 | 9.5% | 87.2% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.284 | 0.292 | 0.008 | 13.8% | 86.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.281 | 0.188 | -0.093 | 0.0% | 95.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.301 | 0.245 | -0.056 | 9.6% | 86.4% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.304 | 0.277 | -0.027 | 12.9% | 79.1% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.283 | 0.293 | 0.01 | 14.2% | 85.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.301 | 0.324 | 0.023 | 7.5% | 92.5% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.306 | 0.320 | 0.014 | 5.8% | 86.5% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.295 | 0.292 | -0.003 | 6.9% | 83.2% |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.287 | 0.217 | -0.07 | 8.3% | 85.6% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.294 | 0.282 | -0.012 | 4.0% | 94.3% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.308 | 0.321 | 0.013 | 3.2% | 89.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 8.9% | 90.0% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 0.302 | 0.277 | -0.025 | 9.1% | 77.8% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.296 | 0.234 | -0.062 | 9.7% | 84.2% |
Masahiro Tanaka – Everything in his BABIP and batted ball profile is fairly average and it’s not like the Yankee defense is doing this. He had a .299 BABIP in the same number of innings last season. There’s no reason to not expect this number to regress, which could lead his ERA towards his FIP (the estimator farthest from his ERA) without a decrease in HR rate.
Max Scherzer has elite BABIP indicators and a low line drive rate. In addition, as a fly ball pitcher, there’s less opportunity for his team to not handle ground balls (read: Gio Gonzalez). There is no issue with his BABIP.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
I can barely separate the top five or six overall tonight. Several similarly priced top choices should bring some interesting diversity to lineups tonight and you can’t really call any of them wrong. Lineups, weather, umpires, and line movement could really make the difference tonight.
Value Tier One
Drew Smyly (7) has been awesome in two of his last three starts, one against these Orioles in a tougher park. Now he faces a team that’s struggled against LHP in a friendlier home park. The FanDuel price is lower and more attractive here.
Masahiro Tanaka (4) seems to be pitching his best baseball of the season when the Yankees need him the most. Getting away from Yankee Stadium may not solve his HR problems (and Citi Field is pretty much power neutral now), but it should help. The Mets have been slowed a bit by the Marlins, of all pitching staffs, this week and that was facing the bottom of their rotation. He’s not cheap, but has several pitchers with question marks ahead of him.
Value Tier Two
Jose Fernandez (6) – All things being equal, he’d be my #1 both overall and in value, which makes me consider that the shorter outings are at least somewhat factored into the price as a pitcher this dominant should be priced even higher. I’ll project him for the top strikeout rate even on a night where there are quite a few studs going. Five innings might be enough for him to hit value and 75-80 innings might even give him a sixth.
Marcus Stroman is an above average pitcher when healthy, which he seems to be (it wasn’t an arm injury). Toronto is a tough place to pitch, but he’s excelled there and faces an offense that has struggled on the road this season and there have even been rumblings of giving David Ortiz the occasional day off on the turf, though that would not appear likely tonight. He’s worth more than an average price tag. This is the most upside if you want to stray from the top of the board (unless Smyly is priced equally).
Madison Bumgarner (1) takes on an average offense (often over-rated due to the park they play in) in a great park. I’d call him the top pitching option tonight, but couldn’t really argue with some of the other choices.
Value Tier Three
Chris Sale (2t) is the highest priced pitcher on some sites and has struggled with run prevention a bit lately with a slight decrease in SwStr% not noticed in his K%. I think 90% of the pitchers in the majors would take his decreased SwStr% over the last month. He gets an upgrade in park tonight, but it really makes a tough opponent more neutral.
Zack Greinke (2t) is really interchangeable with Sale tonight. They both cost almost exactly the same at the top with a similar outlook, though Sale may have a slightly higher upside in his strikeout rate, but also may be a bit more volatile. Greinke is likely going to give you seven innings of solid baseball with a strikeout rate that plays well.
Max Scherzer (5) may be struggling with the HR ball in the 2nd half, but is still striking out batters at an elite rate and faces the worst offense vs RHP tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Johnny Cueto has brought the pain to his own team just about every time out the last few weeks, but his cost is now right around average on DraftKings. With his track record and a sustained double-digit SwStr% over the last month, might there be some tournament upside? While I think you’re going to get what you’re priced to get from the next two pitchers in this section, he’s probably either boom or bust for that DK price.
Jeff Locke is a below average price tag in a neutral spot and the underlying numbers really haven’t been much worse than average.
Mike Fiers faces more of a weak contact team than a high strikeout one and that’s pretty much what he’s done (weak contact) since joining the ‘Stros, while retaining the same K-BB%. The cost and expectations are both a little above average.
Ian Kennedy is a highly HR prone pitcher in Colorado, but the Rockies aren’t very good. Is Coors just that magical or might they bring their struggles home with them against a pitcher that does have strikeout upside?
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.