Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, April 18th
It feels like we’re full swing into the 2016 season now. The vast majority of starting pitchers have made a couple of turns around the rotation now, so it feels like just about the right time to give 2015 the boot. You’ll see 2016 numbers in the K/SwStr, ERA, and BABIP charts now even though they’ll mimic the next 30 days numbers to the right of them for another two weeks. The only thing we’re waiting for now are the team defensive stats and updated park factors, but more on that in the next paragraph.
New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again. Park factors were supposed to be updated last week, but Seamheads.com still seems to be behind, so I think we’re officially now searching for another option before the end of the month, which I’m not all that happy about because I really liked the three year thing they did.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 0 | 5.29 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.87 | 4.59 | SFO | 133 | 114 | 77 | |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0 | 4.2 | 5.84 | 1.61 | 1.08 | 3.97 | 4.1 | ANA | 100 | 108 | 105 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0 | 4.04 | 5.56 | 1.17 | 1.05 | 4.28 | 3.68 | MIN | 82 | 85 | 83 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0 | 4.55 | 5.26 | 0.74 | 1.02 | 5.9 | 4.18 | COL | 108 | 117 | 98 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0 | 4.42 | 5.31 | 0.6 | 1.08 | 5.02 | 4.15 | CHW | 94 | 88 | 62 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0 | 4.2 | 6.06 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 4.5 | 4.09 | ARI | 89 | 85 | 85 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0 | 3.49 | 6.3 | 1 | 1.01 | 2.4 | 3.22 | NYM | 109 | 81 | 104 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0 | 3.81 | 6.51 | 1.35 | 0.98 | 4.11 | 4.07 | STL | 163 | 146 | 161 |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 0 | 4.38 | 5.39 | 1.99 | 1.02 | 5.18 | 5.4 | CIN | 105 | 83 | 80 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0 | 2.55 | 6.06 | 1.31 | 1.01 | 2.37 | 2.16 | WAS | 107 | 89 | 105 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0 | 3.88 | 6.37 | 1.94 | 0.98 | 4.05 | 4.62 | CHC | 127 | 117 | 86 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0 | 2.82 | 6.27 | 1.44 | 1.01 | 2.87 | 1.41 | PHI | 56 | 77 | 56 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0 | 3.68 | 6.41 | 0.89 | 1.05 | 4.2 | 3.03 | MIL | 59 | 83 | 56 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0 | 4.05 | 6.14 | 1.3 | 1.01 | 4.2 | 5.34 | FLA | 92 | 92 | 95 |
Chase Anderson hasn’t allowed a run yet in 11 innings. Obviously, that’s not going to hold up, but he’s pitched well against two strong offenses (Astros, Cardinals). His strikeout rate is up, but he’s not getting as many misses, so that should revert. Actually, he’s not getting many swings at all (39.5 Swing%). I took a look at his pitch mix to try and see if the new organization might be steering him in a different direction. They know the changeup is his best pitch and he’s still throwing it about a fifth the time so far. Otherwise, it looks like a few more curves and it seems like a cutter that he dabbled with a couple of times at the end of last year is being thrown 15% of the time at the expense of his sinker. I’m not sure what this tells us yet, but he can be ok in the right spot and he’s in a great one today getting a park upgrade against one of the worst offenses in baseball so far.
Dan Straily was alright in 2013, the only season where he was regularly a part of a big league rotation in Oakland. He was able to miss a few bats, but walked two many batters and it eventually came back to bite him in the years that followed. He also had some issues with his shoulder and recently paid visit to Kyle Boddy, who is often credited for getting “(player-popup)Scott Kazmir”:/players/scott-kazmir-10942’s velocity back and there were reports that he was throwing 94 mph in March. That hasn’t happened in three relief outings this month, but he is up to 91 mph again, his hardest velocity since his rookie year in 2012, and has struck out eight of 34 batters faced. Yeah, he’s walked four too, but there might be something interesting going on here. Colorado has hit on the road so far and Cincinnati is not a favorable park either, but it’s not necessarily a matchup to fear too much.
Jake Peavy might be interesting on a half day at home against the Diamondbacks. He hasn’t pitched well in either start so far, against the Dodgers and in Colorado and we shouldn’t expect too much from him, but he did get an amazing 17 swings and misses in his last start (after just two in his first) and the park is a boon to fly ball pitchers (he allowed just 4 HRs there last year). Arizona is an average offense away from home and turn into one of the better matchups tonight in this park with only two big bats to worry about.
Jerad Eickhoff was just ok against the Mets in his first start, but absolutely amazing in his last outing against, oh, ok, it was just the Padres. Never mind. He did strike out nine of 25 batters, generating 15 SwStrs. That’s probably not who he is. More along the lines of his first start against the Mets with a three Ks and a couple of runs in five innings is a little more expected from his marginal stuff. However, he throws strikes (6.0 BB% in 63 career innings) and does have a 10.5 SwStr% with a 24.2 K%, so maybe there is a bit more to him than he was originally projected to be. Be careful though, the Mets are coming out of their offensive slumber, hitting a bunch of HRs in Cleveland over the weekend, and Eickhoff is familiar to them now. This will be his 11th major league start and his fifth against the Mets. Seriously, half the time he starts, there’s the Mets.
Jose Fernandez now creates a dilemma as he was removed after 90 pitches in his showdown against Snydergaard last week. He was outshone, but clearly didn’t pitch poorly. More encouragingly, he lasted 106 pitches in his first start, but did word come down to pull back on him afterwards? The Nationals only have two regulars (Harper & Murphy) who can hit RHP, so if you knew he was able to throw 100 pitches, then this is an easy call. We don’t have to talk about his talent or performance (41.9 K%, 15.3 SwStr% in two starts).
Noah Syndergaard should be nearly 100% owned tonight because he only looks like the best pitcher ever with his 95 mph slider through two starts. Fangraphs says he only got 22 SwStrs in his last start, but I seem to remember ESPN and the Mets broadcast as well as my own eyes saying it was more. He even got cheated out of two on unfavorable check swing calls that would have been strike three, one of which directly led to a run. The Marlins looked like they were trying to swat a fly with a pencil out there against him. When batters do make contact, despite a .370 BABIP, he is somehow only holds the 9th lowest exit velocity among pitchers with at least 20 batted balls against (83.96). The Phillies should have no chance against him.
Phil Hughes generated his first SwStr rate above 11% in nearly a year in his last start and only the 3rd time he’s reached double digits in that span as well. Encouragingly, his velocity was a bit too, consistently sitting above 90 mph, which is not great, but is more than we’ve been able to say since last summer. Am I buying into him being fixed? Of course not and the Brewers have some power (18.4 HR/FB vs RHP so far), which is scary against Hughes in any park, but it’s also not a bad park and Milwaukee strikes out a ton (26.6 K% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Hector Santiago (.205 BABIP- 71.4 LOB% – 15.8 HR/FB) – Back to his old tricks again already, although he has allowed a few HRs already. The weird thing is, he seems to be allowing less hard contact so far with more groundballs and has cut his walk rate in half. It’s just two starts though. He might miss a few bats, but he’ll start walking guys and allow a lot of hard contact in the air. It might be something he can survive occasionally at home, but probably not in tougher parks, like his old home in Chicago. The White Sox have some RH pop this year.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Archie Bradley wasn’t very good in his first shot in the big leagues in 31 innings last season and has walked five of the 30 batters he’s faced at AAA this season. He struck out seven of 22 in his first start, but didn’t even make it out of the first inning in his last. I guess that deserves a promotion? He’s had a double digit walk rate at every stop along the minors. Though it’s a great pitching park, he’s not going to get very far against the Giants if he can’t throw strikes.
Carlos Rodon walked five Twins in his last start and somehow none of them scored. He’s faced two very weak offensive lineups so far (A’s, Twins) and has a nice ERA, but has really performed average at best. Both starts were very different even if they ended with similar results (two total runs allowed). In the first a was fortunate to have some hard hit balls find gloves after often falling behind in the count, but he managed only to walk one batter and generate a double digit SwStr%. Against the Twins, he allowed just one hard hit ball, but his inability to get ahead of batters resulted in five walks. It’s really not surprising after walking a fine line in his first start. Per Brooks Baseball, it looks like he’s doubled up on the use of his sinker to where he’s throwing it over half the time so far and that’s not going to be a pitch that often gets whiffs (< 7%). He might strike out a few Angels. They’re not great, but they’re better than the other pathetic offenses he’s faced and I don’t know if I want to pay $8.5K+ with the risk he carries if he’s not going to throw strikes (49.1 F-Strike% – Lg. Avg = 60.1%).
John Lackey is an ok pitcher that costs about what a number two caliber pitcher in a rotation would in a normal spot. He’s not in a normal spot, however. He’s in a very bad one against his old team. The Cardinals are smoking the ball through two weeks, while not often missing it and he’s over-priced.
Jordan Lyles hasn’t pitched many innings on the road since the start of last season (just over 20), but hasn’t fared any better than Colorado, walking more batters than he’s struck out. It’s a shame because he can’t throw strikes because he’s not in a terrible price at a very low price. In the same price range, his opponent is more interesting though.
Mike Leake did pitch slightly better, striking out six of 27 Brewers in his last start, but rarely offers even that kind of upside. I like the park for him from a HR perspective, but the Cubs are a tough offense with a lot of power and they’re only even striking out an average rate this year with a 13.6 BB% vs RHP so far.
Tanner Roark has excelled at generating weak contact throughout his short major league career thus far (4.1 career Hard-Soft%), but just does not have any ability to miss bats. His ERA is so low through two starts because he has yet to allow a HR and has somehow stranded 80% of his runners despite a .351 BABIP and 11.8 BB%.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 14.3% | 13.7% | Road | 14.3% | 11.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.8% | 11.6% | Home | 24.1% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 10.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.0% | Road | 16.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.9% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 19.9% | 11.8% | Home | 17.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.5% | 9.2% | Road | 18.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 5.5% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 17.6% | 6.2% | Home | 13.7% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 2.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.2% | 6.0% | Home | 31.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 4.1% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 19.5% | 5.9% | Road | 18.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 7.6% |
| Jordan Lyles | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.5% | 8.9% | Road | 11.8% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.2% | 6.0% | Home | 31.7% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 9.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.8% | 6.0% | Home | 15.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 5.1% | Road | 28.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 42.0% | 4.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 18.4% | 1.8% | Home | 14.8% | 1.8% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 16.3% | 5.2% | Road | 15.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 11.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 16.4% | 8.6% | RH | 13.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.8% |
| Angels | Road | 15.1% | 8.8% | LH | 12.3% | 10.4% | L7Days | 15.1% | 8.8% |
| Twins | Home | 17.2% | 8.8% | RH | 24.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.4% | 5.0% | RH | 18.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 18.6% | 10.0% | LH | 29.4% | 1.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 3.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 21.1% | 7.2% | RH | 20.7% | 5.8% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.2% |
| Mets | Road | 22.3% | 9.1% | RH | 23.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 14.2% | 8.3% | RH | 17.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 14.2% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Home | 17.9% | 9.4% | RH | 19.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 23.3% | 8.9% | RH | 22.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.9% | 12.3% | RH | 20.8% | 13.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 14.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.3% | 8.5% | RH | 21.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.5% | 11.8% | RH | 26.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 11.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.1% | 9.1% | RH | 21.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 38.6% | 9.7% | 25.4% | 2016 | Road | 40.3% | 15.4% | 24.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.5% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 2016 | 18.9% | 11.1% | -2.7% | Home | 27.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 11.1% | -2.7% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 2016 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 13.3% | Road | 27.6% | 12.2% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 29.8% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 2016 | 35.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | Home | 16.7% | 0.0% | -16.6% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 31.6% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 2016 | 26.2% | 15.8% | 9.5% | Road | 33.9% | 12.2% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 15.8% | 9.5% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 30.7% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 2016 | 34.2% | 5.9% | 28.9% | Home | 27.0% | 4.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 5.9% | 28.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 2016 | 17.7% | 0.0% | -20.5% | Home | 22.7% | 4.8% | -10.6% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | -20.5% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.2% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 2016 | 47.4% | 15.4% | 39.5% | Road | 31.4% | 13.3% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 47.4% | 15.4% | 39.5% |
| Jordan Lyles | Rockies | L2 Years | 27.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 2016 | 29.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | Road | 31.8% | 6.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 27.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 2016 | 23.8% | 12.5% | 9.5% | Home | 25.2% | 9.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 12.5% | 9.5% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.4% | 13.1% | 14.3% | 2016 | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% | Home | 31.3% | 12.2% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 24.2% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 2016 | 18.5% | 0.0% | -11.1% | Road | 27.3% | 14.3% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | -11.1% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 29.7% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 2016 | 39.5% | 16.7% | 18.4% | Home | 34.2% | 12.4% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.3% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 2016 | 18.9% | 0.0% | -18.9% | Road | 28.1% | 14.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | -18.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 26.6% | 18.2% | 2.7% | RH | 34.4% | 18.9% | 15.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 12.2% | -5.5% |
| Angels | Road | 23.5% | 8.1% | -2.8% | LH | 25.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.1% | -2.8% |
| Twins | Home | 29.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | RH | 31.3% | 6.9% | 13.6% | L7Days | 29.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 39.1% | 27.1% | 14.3% | RH | 32.7% | 18.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 26.5% | 12.0% | -1.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 26.5% | 13.6% | 0.0% | LH | 38.6% | 11.1% | 20.4% | L7Days | 30.1% | 6.1% | 15.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.7% | 15.1% | 11.9% | RH | 31.6% | 12.8% | 12.0% | L7Days | 31.7% | 15.1% | 11.9% |
| Mets | Road | 36.1% | 15.1% | 21.1% | RH | 32.5% | 8.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 35.3% | 12.1% | 18.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 37.2% | 18.6% | 20.3% | RH | 34.0% | 17.3% | 14.3% | L7Days | 37.2% | 18.6% | 20.3% |
| Reds | Home | 26.3% | 14.3% | 5.9% | RH | 32.5% | 5.7% | 13.0% | L7Days | 35.4% | 6.8% | 18.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 35.0% | 15.9% | 20.4% | RH | 31.3% | 12.4% | 14.4% | L7Days | 33.5% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 30.3% | 13.2% | 15.7% | RH | 31.9% | 12.2% | 13.4% | L7Days | 29.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 15.9% | 8.2% | -8.3% | RH | 22.8% | 10.3% | 0.8% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.2% | -8.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.5% | 13.8% | 7.4% | RH | 29.6% | 18.4% | 13.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 13.8% | 7.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 22.3% | 7.5% | -6.8% | RH | 22.9% | 5.5% | -5.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.9% | -8.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Bradley | ARI | ||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 21.8% | 9.7% | 2.25 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 2.25 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.93 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.93 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 23.5% | 11.9% | 1.97 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 1.97 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.94 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.94 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 17.0% | 11.7% | 1.45 | 17.0% | 11.7% | 1.45 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 24.5% | 10.9% | 2.25 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 2.25 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 20.8% | 10.3% | 2.02 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 2.02 |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 11.9% | 8.7% | 1.37 | 11.9% | 8.7% | 1.37 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 41.9% | 15.3% | 2.74 | 41.9% | 15.3% | 2.74 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 14.0% | 6.0% | 2.33 | 14.0% | 6.0% | 2.33 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 42.0% | 19.9% | 2.11 | 42.0% | 19.9% | 2.11 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 22.5% | 8.3% | 2.71 | 22.5% | 8.3% | 2.71 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 13.7% | 6.5% | 2.11 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 2.11 |
We’re still using 2015 numbers a bit long until just about every pitcher has made a couple of starts, but also using this year’s stats in the “L30 Days” column. As mentioned, we’re showing just starting pitcher league averages in the header information now, which drops K% and SwStr% just slightly from the overall average that includes relievers.
Jake Peavy – I’d expect the K% to stay around where it is and the SwStr% to drop a few points at this point in his career. As mentioned, he went from two SwStrs to 17 in Colorado.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Bradley | ARI | ||||||||||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 1.38 | 4.1 | 2.72 | 3.73 | 2.35 | 3.68 | 2.3 | 1.38 | 4.1 | 2.72 | 3.73 | 2.35 | 3.68 | 2.3 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0 | 3.68 | 3.68 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 0 | 3.68 | 3.68 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 2.05 | 2.05 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.24 | 4.18 | 0.94 | 5.21 | 1.97 | 4.94 | 1.7 | 3.24 | 4.18 | 0.94 | 5.21 | 1.97 | 4.94 | 1.7 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.95 | 4.14 | 0.19 | 4.45 | 0.5 | 5.19 | 1.24 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 0.2 | 4.45 | 0.5 | 5.19 | 1.24 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 10 | 4.09 | -5.91 | 4.58 | -5.42 | 3.14 | -6.86 | 10 | 4.09 | -5.91 | 4.58 | -5.42 | 3.14 | -6.86 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 1.5 | 3.22 | 1.72 | 3.41 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 0.39 | 1.5 | 3.22 | 1.72 | 3.41 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 0.39 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 5.68 | 4.06 | -1.62 | 3.91 | -1.77 | 4.4 | -1.28 | 5.68 | 4.07 | -1.61 | 3.91 | -1.77 | 4.4 | -1.28 |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 11.25 | 5.4 | -5.85 | 5.47 | -5.78 | 4.14 | -7.11 | 11.25 | 5.4 | -5.85 | 5.47 | -5.78 | 4.14 | -7.11 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 5.06 | 2.14 | -2.92 | 2.03 | -3.03 | 2.11 | -2.95 | 5.06 | 2.16 | -2.9 | 2.03 | -3.03 | 2.11 | -2.95 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 6.97 | 4.61 | -2.36 | 4.27 | -2.7 | 3.23 | -3.74 | 6.97 | 4.62 | -2.35 | 4.27 | -2.7 | 3.23 | -3.74 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.69 | 1.41 | 0.72 | 1.07 | 0.38 | 0.37 | -0.32 | 0.69 | 1.41 | 0.72 | 1.07 | 0.38 | 0.37 | -0.32 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.38 | 3.03 | -1.35 | 2.84 | -1.54 | 3.46 | -0.92 | 4.38 | 3.03 | -1.35 | 2.84 | -1.54 | 3.46 | -0.92 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 2.45 | 5.34 | 2.89 | 5.16 | 2.71 | 3.77 | 1.32 | 2.45 | 5.34 | 2.89 | 5.16 | 2.71 | 3.77 | 1.32 |
Carlos Rodon has stranded almost all of his base runners so far (95.9%).
Chase Anderson – A guy with an 11.6 HR/FB in 250+ innings in Arizona is going to eventually give up some HRs in Milwaukee too, but maybe not tonight in Minnesota.
Jake Peavy will not sustain a .541 BABIP, which will really help that 58.3 LOB% too. He’s allowed a few too many hard hit balls, but some have to eventually start finding gloves by sheer luck.
Jerad Eickhoff is going to give up some HRs in that park too, probably his first one of the season tonight.
Jose Fernandez got bounced around a bit more than expected in his first start, carrying a .350 BABIP and 56.6 LOB% through two starts. He allowed one HR, but has not yet allowed 10 fly balls, putting his early HR/FB above the standard rate.
Phil Hughes has allowed two HRs in two starts (16.7 HR/FB) because that’s what he does, stranding just 68.6% of runners so far.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 0.306 | |||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.254 | 0.250 | -0.004 | 0.2 | 22.2% | 84.9% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.308 | 0.267 | -0.041 | 0.207 | 8.3% | 81.0% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.260 | 0.105 | -0.155 | 0.3 | 10.0% | 79.0% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.277 | 0.205 | -0.072 | 0.071 | 10.5% | 83.6% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.327 | 0.541 | 0.214 | 0.184 | 0.0% | 83.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.282 | 0.265 | -0.017 | 0.182 | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.247 | 0.333 | 0.086 | 0.27 | 7.7% | 92.9% |
| Jordan Lyles | COL | 0.324 | 0.419 | 0.095 | 0.267 | 14.3% | 93.3% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.321 | 0.350 | 0.029 | 0.35 | 0.0% | 76.8% |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.303 | 0.395 | 0.092 | 0.395 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.340 | 0.370 | 0.03 | 0.185 | 0.0% | 76.9% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.286 | 0.306 | 0.02 | 0.263 | 0.0% | 81.8% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.255 | 0.351 | 0.096 | 0.257 | 0.0% | 90.9% |
Don’t pay much attention to this year’s Team BABIP yet. The sample is way too small. Pitcher numbers are still from 2015.
Wow, that Chicago defense so far! Both sides of town.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed just 11 batters to make non-ground ball contact in fair territory against him through two starts and only five out of 27 batted balls total classified as hit hard, but Mets defense I guess.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here’s a bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags in no particular order until we get a bit more information about 2016. We’ll probably return to last year’s format after one more turn through the rotation.
Chase Anderson has the potential to be an average pitcher or close to it, but that may be slightly masked when calling Arizona and now Milwaukee his home. As a marginally priced pitcher, we might be able to occasionally take advantage of that when he’s on the road in good spots, like tonight. I would have liked to have seen his DraftKings price ($7.7K) a little lower though.
Dan Straily could be a nice sleeper pick today for the minimum price. If he does anything at all, he’ll easily pay off, especially on DraftKings at $4K. He’s throwing harder and missing bats and though normally, you don’t want to bet on a guy retaining his velocity from bullpen to rotation, each of his three outings have been at least 2+ innings and more than one time through the lineup. Anything close to a quality start with a few strikeouts is a jackpot here. I’m much more inclined to add him to Syndergaard in GPPs as there are really no potential secondary pitchers with a mid-range price tag that I’m sure will out-perform him.
Jake Peavy isn’t a top play today as he’s not all that cheap and probably not even as inexpensive as he should be, but he should be useable in a good spot in a great park. There’s not much upside left in that arm though.
Jerad Eickhoff is a favorite of the numbers today, though they don’t know he just faced the worst offense on the planet and still has a fairly small sample size. The cost is a bit high on DraftKings, but there’s really not much else to believe in that range.
Jose Fernandez – You’re probably just better off paying slightly up if there’s any doubt when you get to this price point, but if you know his removal after 90 pitches was just a one-time thing last week (I can’t find anything), then he should be his normal dominant self.
Noah Syndergaard – I can’t see any reason why anyone wouldn’t or shouldn’t roster him tonight. His first two starts might have featured some of the most dominant stuff we’ve ever seen. He’s probably still not as expensive as he should be. He should at least strike out 15 and throw a no-hitter tonight (I’ll say this every start until he does). Watch Ryan Howard catch him for one tonight though.
Phil Hughes is not really someone I’m enamored with, but did show some positive signs in his last matchup and the matchup against the Brewers does have some upside baked in. Plus, I don’t fully trust anyone away from the top tonight. You could throw a dart and shrug at some of these mid-price range guys.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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