Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, July 21th
We were justified in lamenting the choices available to use yesterday when Andrew Heaney was the top scorer on DraftKings with a mere 20.75 points and nobody else coming within three points of him. (Correction: I’ve since been corrected that Ian Kennedy reached the 20 point mark with the win last night too.) At least he was one of the guys atop our board yesterday. The small sample sizes and lack of information continues today with only eight pitchers having made more than one start over the last two weeks and seven not making any starts at all, including the two making their major league debuts tonight. It’s still not pretty again, but there do look to be at least a few reliable options and arms to wish on tonight.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1.01 | TAM | 89 | 89 | 65 | ||||||||
| Alex Wood | ATL | -3.7 | 3.52 | 6.04 | 1.41 | 0.98 | 2.95 | 3.74 | LOS | 105 | 102 | 121 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 25.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 4 | 3.23 | 5.81 | 3.22 | 0.98 | 2.99 | 3.66 | ATL | 89 | 76 | 71 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 19.6% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | -3.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.01 | HOU | 111 | 103 | 149 | ||||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -8.9 | 4.27 | 5.45 | 1.89 | 1.08 | 4.18 | 6.33 | STL | 93 | 82 | 107 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 26.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 1 | 3.45 | 6.06 | 2.58 | 0.84 | 3.62 | 3.7 | SDG | 92 | 88 | 139 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 20.9% | 11.9% | 7.7% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -3.2 | 3.04 | 5.65 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 3.23 | 2.82 | MIL | 88 | 93 | 145 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 23.0% | 9.9% | 6.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -3.4 | 3.09 | 6.37 | 1.76 | 1.04 | 3.14 | 4.62 | KAN | 110 | 108 | 137 | 17.5% | 6.9% | 19.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 4.9 | 3.12 | 6.51 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 3.41 | 1.92 | WAS | 90 | 97 | 57 | 25.8% | 6.9% | 17.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 5.6 | 3.44 | 5.96 | 1 | 1.02 | 3.21 | 1.83 | CIN | 108 | 95 | 123 | 22.6% | 6.0% | 18.6% | 11.2% | 5.5% |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 9.8 | 4.17 | 5.98 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 3.87 | PIT | 90 | 94 | 94 | ||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 2.6 | 4.2 | 5.05 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 4.39 | 4.16 | FLA | 88 | 82 | 108 | 18.5% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 8.6% | 5.4% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -2.6 | 2.15 | 6.7 | 2.14 | 1.03 | 1.77 | NYM | 73 | 87 | 88 | ||||||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -6.4 | 4.26 | 5.87 | 1.78 | 0.93 | 4.52 | 3.78 | TOR | 98 | 106 | 95 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 20.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.3 | 4.14 | 5.84 | 2.06 | 0.91 | 4.14 | 2.62 | ANA | 103 | 102 | 108 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 13.8% | 13.5% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 1.5 | 4.58 | 5.89 | 1.24 | 1.4 | 4.34 | 4.68 | TEX | 91 | 101 | 103 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 29.3% | 10.7% | 9.9% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | -2.5 | 4.23 | 6.42 | 1.4 | 0.93 | 4.1 | 3.8 | OAK | 107 | 95 | 109 | 12.9% | 4.9% | 20.9% | 7.8% | 12.7% |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 5.2 | 4.02 | 6.23 | 1.15 | 1.09 | 3.82 | ARI | 97 | 95 | 107 | ||||||
| Matt Garza | MIL | -2.9 | 4.06 | 6.09 | 1.21 | 1.07 | 3.62 | CLE | 93 | 97 | 127 | ||||||
| Matt Harrison | TEX | 3.4 | 5.94 | 4.22 | 1.48 | 1.4 | 5.18 | 7.26 | COL | 99 | 67 | 112 | 15.8% | 11.4% | 23.7% | 10.8% | 9.5% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3.6 | 3.47 | 5.84 | 1.01 | 0.91 | 3.32 | 5.04 | MIN | 75 | 95 | 63 | 20.6% | 5.8% | 17.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 1.3 | 3.57 | 5.96 | 1.3 | 1.08 | 3.56 | 2.96 | CHW | 77 | 84 | 98 | 20.8% | 6.5% | 21.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 8.7 | 3.71 | 5.8 | 1.21 | 1.01 | 3.36 | 3.57 | PHI | 84 | 78 | 107 | 19.7% | 5.9% | 20.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -7.1 | 3.96 | 5.83 | 1.48 | 1.02 | 3.6 | 2.79 | BAL | 94 | 105 | 127 | 20.2% | 5.7% | 22.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | -10.7 | 4.17 | 5.93 | 1.7 | 0.84 | 3.97 | 3.1 | SFO | 109 | 112 | 107 | 17.2% | 5.6% | 21.2% | 8.4% | 13.4% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | -0.5 | 3.81 | 5.2 | 0.97 | 1.02 | 3.85 | 4.3 | CHC | 97 | 86 | 80 | 20.6% | 7.2% | 22.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% |
| Shane Greene | DET | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5.39 | 1.52 | 1.05 | 4.13 | 6.59 | SEA | 81 | 91 | 77 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 18.0% | 13.7% | 7.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -3.1 | 3.65 | 5.62 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 4.01 | 3.5 | DET | 112 | 111 | 83 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 23.2% | 12.6% | 10.9% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | -3.4 | 4.19 | 5.33 | 0.51 | 1.01 | 4.07 | 4.05 | BOS | 86 | 98 | 14 | 20.7% | 7.7% | 21.6% | 7.8% | 10.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 7.7 | 3.81 | 6.1 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 3.97 | 3.58 | NYY | 121 | 102 | 85 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 18.9% | 13.1% | 14.1% |
Aaron Nola was Philadelphia’s top draft pick last year out of LSU and their #3 prospect coming into the season on Fangraphs, doing nothing except improve his stock this season, shooting through four levels since being drafted and already in the majors now. He has three above average pitches (fastball, curveball, and change-up), though none will blow you away with average command. He had an impressive 17 K-BB% at both AA and AAA in just over 100 combined innings this year. The Phillies have put him in a good spot to succeed against Tampa Bay today. The Rays are neither good on the road or vs RHP (22.1 K%) and haven’t hit at all since the break.
Alex Wood took a beating in his last start in Colorado before the break and wasn’t very good in the one prior to that against Philadelphia either. He does, however, have a 20.2 K-BB% at home since last season and has slowly increased his SwStr rate to respectability over the last month even if it’s not what it was last year. Though they are stronger vs RHP, the Dodgers are still a solid offense on the road (13.9 HR/FB) and vs LHP (15.4 Hard-Soft%).
Brett Anderson always seems to be pitching in a good spot and flying under the radar, despite putting together a really good season and with five innings today, he’ll have his highest innings total since 2009. He doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, but it is a reasonable and increasing amount over the last month. What he does do is generate tons of weak ground balls. In fact, his 66.6 GB% leads the majors and his 24.6 Soft% is 3rd, so that’s no exaggeration. His strengths play well against the Braves, who are not good at home, but terrible vs LHP (3rd worst in the majors, including a 22.0 K%). The represent one of tonight’s top matchups.
Brian Johnson is the lesser prospect making his debut today. He’s nearly 25 and less heralded than Nola, but has pitched well in his first shot at AA last year (3.15 FIP, 14.8 K-BB%) and at AAA this year (3.24 FIP, 15.9 K-BB%). He profiles more as a mid to back of the rotation starter with three average or better pitches and the same can be said for his command, but nothing that really gets him noticed. He’s a lefty facing the Astros in Houston and that can bring a lot of good and bad. They strike out 25.0% at home and 23.1% vs LHP, but with an 18.7 HR/FB and 13.7 HR/FB respectively in those situations.
Chris Heston hasn’t always been good from a results or peripherals standpoint, but has been good overall with a league average 12.9 K-BB% and strong contact management (5.7 Hard-Soft%). His strikeouts have been inconsistent from start to start, but he’s had a SwStr above 9% in six of his last eight starts. Similar to Anderson, he often seems to be in a position to succeed and the top pitcher’s park tonight in Petco offers another such spot. The Padres are below average at home and even worse vs RHP with above average strikeout rates under each condition.
Danny Salazar may vary greatly in actual results, but usually comes with the strikeouts. He’s lasted into the 8th inning in two of his last three starts, but failed to complete five in three of his last five. Milwaukee is still a below average offense, but have been hot since the break and are enhanced greatly by the ballpark.
Gerrit Cole is a damn good pitcher in a tough spot. We know that the Royals don’t strike out, but they have also been a very good offense at home (14.1 K%) and one of the best vs RHP (15.9 K%). Add this to the fact that Cole hasn’t topped six strikeouts in any of his last five points and it could be a struggle to generate a lot of fantasy points, though strong contact management skills (4.4 Hard-Soft%) this year should serve him well overall.
Jacob deGrom is tonight’s top stud. Not considering a level of dominance in the All Star game we’ve never seen before, he’s gone eight shutout innings in two of his last three starts and now has a 20.5 K-BB% that is 5th in the National League. He faces a watered down Washington offense that has been ice cold facing nothing but All Star pitchers since the break (-6.8 Hard-Soft%, 27.4 K%).
Jason Hammel has pitched just one inning since July 3rd, but has been a great addition the Cubs rotation and has a 19.5 K-BB% on the road since last season and has not allowed more than four ERs in a start this season with two or less in six of his last seven (disregarding his last start, which lasted one inning). The Reds are a tough matchup who don’t strike out much and have a 14.2 HR/FB at home.
Jeremy Hellickson has been a bit better than his ERA and has a decent matchup, though in a tough park. He’s allowed two ERs or fewer six of his last eight starts with a big increase in bat missing skills over the last month, making him more interesting against a team that is 2nd worst in the majors vs RHP. A dangerous 18.1 Hard-Soft% this year looms though.
Joe Ross hasn’t pitched in the majors in exactly a month, but had a ridiculous 26.2 K-BB% in three starts. He gets a shot at the worst road team in baseball with a 22.3 K%.
Kyle Gibson has at least six strikeouts in eight of his last 12 starts, serving as a victory for of us who saw potential in his SwStr rate last year. His SwStr has been above 15% in each of his last two starts. He still has just a 9.0 K-BB%, leaving room for further improvement, but combines it with a heavy 2.24 GB/FB. The Angels have a solid offense that can be downgraded due to the park. They just came off an offensive drubbing of the Red Sox yesterday, but may be a bit tired after playing two.
Matt Shoemaker has allowed exactly two ERs in each of his last three starts, including one in Colorado. There is some concern with the fact that his K rate has dropped below 10% over the last month, but his velocity has actually increased, so perhaps it’s just a small sample size, though something to watch. He has a 17.6 K-BB% at home since last year. The real upside here is in potentially the top park adjusted matchup tonight against the 2nd worst road offense in baseball (21.6 K%, 7.5 HR/FB).
Michael Wacha has been very inconsistent this season, but with great overall results. He’s allowed either four or five runs in four of his last eight starts, but two or less in each of his other four. In fact, he’s allowed no more than a single run in nine of 17 starts this season with a 14.1 K-BB% that’s similar to what he put up last year. Most St Louis pitchers have been better at home where they can suppress HRs, but he has a 6.3 HR/FB on the road since last season. That could be challenged in a tougher park, but the matchup remains favorable even with the park adjustment vs the worst home offense and 3rd worst vs RHP with an overall 4.8 Hard-Soft% this season.
Nate Karns allowed a season high seven runs in his last start, but had allowed a total of six in the five before that and has been an overall league average pitcher this year with one of the top defenses in baseball behind him. The allure here would be a matchup with the Phillies, who are the 3rd worst home offense and worst vs RHP (7.3 HR/FB, 5.8 Hard-Soft%).
Nathan Eovaldi gets sort of a half-hearted write-up today as he hasn’t been terrible over the last month, but part of that is Girardi running out to get him before he can get into too much trouble. He hasn’t gone more than six innings in any of his last six starts and the low K% is not something daily fantasy players dream on, though it has improved over the last 30 days. Baltimore hasn’t been good on the road, but has crushed a 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP and this is not a favorable park. The upside is that Eovaldi has allowed just one HR over his last five home starts and the O’s strike out a lot (23.8% on the road and 22.4% vs RHP).
Odrisamer Despaigne has just an 8.3 K-BB%, but has done well managing contact authority (4.9% Hard-Soft%). He faces the 2nd best offense on the road and vs RHP, but in a home park that adjusts the matchup slightly in his favor. If that makes him borderline considerable tonight, the worst defense in baseball makes it even tougher.
Raisel Iglesias allowed five ERs in his first start since May just before the break, but has a slightly above average 13.7 K-BB% in 29 innings (five starts) this year with a 10.7 SwStr%. There’s some upside here against a Chicago Cubs offense that has under-performed this year as a unit and has a 23.7 K% on the road and 24.5 K% vs RHP.
Taijuan Walker seemed to wait for my endorsement to blow up against this same Detroit team and then get squashed by the Angels in his next outing as well. At least in the most recent, he struck out seven of 24 batters and has had at least six strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts. That makes it a little more difficult to give him my full support in the rematch against the 3rd best offense vs RHP in a tougher park. The upside and a 15.2 SwStr% over the last month does put him in the conversation though.
Vincent Velasquez has been decent through six starts. He’s cut down on his walks with four total over his last three starts after 10 over his first three and has at least five strikeouts in five of his six starts. The Red Sox have just a 16.5 K% vs RHP, but are not a good road offense and have been ice cold since the break without a HR yet. What the numbers don’t capture is that they got their butts kicked in a double header last night and now had to travel from LA to Houston after a late game and no time off. All of this likely gives Velasquez one of the top matchups tonight and bumps his value a bit higher than the numbers alone state.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Wei-Yin Chen (.255 BABIP – 83.7 LOB% – 13.7 HR/FB) – I take least issue with the high HR rate due to his residence in Baltimore, though in fairness, it’s the highest of his four seasons there and he does have a solid 14.7 K-BB%, but faces the 2nd best home team in baseball, though throwing from the side you’d rather face them from.
Kendall Graveman (.295 BABIP – 79.4 LOB% – 10.4 HR/FB) – This is where I expect the most disagreement, but he has just 6.8 K-BB% and a nearly neutral park adjusted matchup at home against Oakland. He might be ok, but the upside is limited.
Mark Buehrle (.274 BABIP – 73.7 LOB% – 9.9 HR/FB) – These numbers are all fine and close to his career numbers as is his 8.3 K-BB%, but for some reason I can’t immediately figure out, his ERA is a half run lower than his career rate. He’s not that interesting from a daily fantasy perspective that it need to be figured out immediately either.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jason Vargas has a decent matchup, but little upside and hasn’t gone more than six innings in a start this year.
Carlos Rodon because the line has to be drawn somewhere and I don’t understand how he can have a .341 BABIP and 13.9 BB% with an ERA under 4.00. He’s walked 10 of his last 46 batters. His upside is a 23.0 K% and that the Cardinals have a 24.0 K% vs LHP and 83 wRC+, but there’s potential for disaster in that walk rate here.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Alex Wood | Braves | 21.7% | 6.8% | Home | 26.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 6.9% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.9% | 6.8% | Road | 20.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 3.9% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 23.0% | 13.9% | Home | 22.4% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 19.3% | 6.9% | Road | 18.2% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 27.5% | 7.0% | Road | 26.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 24.6% | 6.5% | Road | 25.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 25.4% | 6.4% | Road | 24.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 3.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.6% | 5.9% | Road | 25.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | 16.4% | 5.6% | Home | 15.8% | 2.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 18.1% | 7.6% | Home | 18.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 28.8% | 2.5% | Home | 31.3% | 2.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 14.8% | 7.3% | Home | 11.7% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 14.9% | 7.6% | Road | 15.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.1% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.3% | 6.5% | Home | 15.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 14.1% | 5.1% | Road | 12.4% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Mat Latos | Marlins | 18.1% | 6.5% | Road | 19.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Matt Garza | Brewers | 18.1% | 7.1% | Home | 19.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 10.6% | 14.4% | Road | 12.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 5.0% | 15.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 21.4% | 5.0% | Home | 23.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 6.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.5% | 6.7% | Road | 20.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 4.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 23.0% | 8.6% | Road | 24.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.9% | 5.9% | Home | 17.2% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 2.3% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 14.6% | 6.4% | Home | 16.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 20.6% | 6.9% | Home | 21.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Shane Greene | Tigers | 19.3% | 7.7% | Home | 16.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 8.7% | 13.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.3% | 7.5% | Road | 19.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 2.1% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 23.5% | 10.6% | Home | 22.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.0% | 5.4% | Road | 18.9% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 5.2% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 7.3% | RH | 22.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.2% | 9.9% | LH | 21.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.5% |
| Braves | Home | 18.6% | 8.5% | LH | 22.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.6% |
| Astros | Home | 25.0% | 9.4% | LH | 23.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.6% | 7.5% | LH | 24.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.5% |
| Padres | Home | 23.4% | 6.3% | RH | 22.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.0% | 7.2% | RH | 20.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| Royals | Home | 14.1% | 6.2% | RH | 15.9% | 6.1% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.0% | 7.9% | RH | 20.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.4% |
| Reds | Home | 18.0% | 8.7% | RH | 18.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.8% | 6.4% | LH | 23.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.6% | 6.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.4% | 6.0% | RH | 20.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 13.3% | 8.0% |
| Mets | Road | 22.3% | 6.5% | RH | 20.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.1% | 7.6% | RH | 19.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 12.7% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Home | 20.3% | 8.0% | RH | 19.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 22.7% | 7.0% | RH | 19.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 3.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.5% | 7.4% | LH | 17.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 11.4% | 3.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.7% | 8.2% | RH | 20.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.8% |
| Indians | Road | 17.4% | 8.7% | RH | 18.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 13.3% | 11.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.8% | 7.1% | LH | 24.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.4% |
| Twins | Road | 21.6% | 6.7% | RH | 20.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 27.5% | 4.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.9% | 6.8% | RH | 19.6% | 6.3% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.4% | 6.4% | RH | 19.1% | 5.8% | L7Days | 15.0% | 7.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.8% | 6.8% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Road | 19.1% | 6.9% | RH | 18.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.7% | 8.8% | RH | 24.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 12.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 7.1% | RH | 22.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.7% | 7.1% | RH | 19.1% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.3% | 8.2% | RH | 16.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 5.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.2% | 9.1% | LH | 19.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Alex Wood | Braves | 21.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | Home | 22.4% | 11.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.2% | 11.8% | 3.9% | Road | 12.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 26.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | Home | 27.8% | 4.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 22.5% | 8.1% | 12.2% | Road | 23.1% | 14.3% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 22.4% | 12.3% | 10.8% | Road | 21.8% | 12.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 21.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | Road | 19.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 22.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | Road | 19.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.9% | 11.1% | 6.9% | Road | 23.5% | 11.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | 22.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | Home | 21.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 21.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | Home | 18.9% | 10.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 17.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 23.3% | 10.3% | 6.4% | Home | 24.1% | 13.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 20.2% | 11.2% | 11.6% | Road | 17.3% | 9.9% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 21.9% | 12.7% | 11.1% | Home | 23.2% | 15.8% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.3% | 7.9% | 10.6% | Road | 22.3% | 6.9% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mat Latos | Marlins | 22.1% | 7.2% | 12.3% | Road | 19.6% | 4.6% | 12.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Matt Garza | Brewers | 22.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | Home | 22.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Matt Harrison | Rangers | 25.0% | 8.7% | 13.0% | Road | 22.7% | 9.1% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 18.9% | 11.4% | 6.6% | Home | 18.8% | 11.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.2% | 6.3% | 9.5% | Road | 23.2% | 6.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 20.1% | 12.0% | 8.5% | Road | 19.6% | 8.0% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | Home | 21.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 20.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% | Home | 20.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 26.1% | 6.1% | 12.1% | Home | 23.7% | 4.2% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Shane Greene | Tigers | 22.3% | 13.5% | 12.1% | Home | 24.5% | 8.1% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.3% | 10.8% | 12.0% | Road | 24.4% | 10.5% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 21.8% | 6.7% | 13.3% | Home | 24.0% | 7.4% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 21.7% | 12.1% | 10.6% | Road | 18.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 13.3% | 33.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 21.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | RH | 21.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 13.0% | 6.8% | 18.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.7% | 13.9% | 8.1% | LH | 23.0% | 10.2% | 7.0% | L7Days | 27.7% | 7.1% | 11.9% |
| Braves | Home | 21.2% | 7.6% | 10.9% | LH | 21.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 28.6% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Astros | Home | 18.5% | 18.2% | 10.0% | LH | 20.5% | 13.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.2% | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.3% | 11.1% | 11.4% | LH | 19.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | L7Days | 14.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% |
| Padres | Home | 19.9% | 11.8% | 6.2% | RH | 19.3% | 10.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.9% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.5% | 11.6% | 6.8% | RH | 20.9% | 10.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 13.0% | 4.3% |
| Royals | Home | 21.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | RH | 21.7% | 9.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 11.5% | 9.4% | RH | 20.8% | 12.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 13.4% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Reds | Home | 22.6% | 14.2% | 8.2% | RH | 21.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 18.9% | 2.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | LH | 24.1% | 11.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.9% | 13.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.2% | 12.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.2% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 7.7% | 10.9% | RH | 22.8% | 8.0% | 11.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 4.8% | 14.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.8% | 11.1% | 14.9% | RH | 18.5% | 13.2% | 13.6% | L7Days | 16.7% | 14.3% | 11.4% |
| Angels | Home | 20.9% | 12.1% | 10.7% | RH | 20.1% | 11.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 15.7% | 17.6% | 14.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.2% | 12.3% | 8.8% | RH | 18.5% | 11.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 26.4% | 11.5% | 19.2% |
| Athletics | Home | 20.3% | 7.2% | 12.3% | LH | 18.8% | 8.2% | 12.3% | L7Days | 24.5% | 16.7% | 27.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | RH | 21.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.5% | 5.0% |
| Indians | Road | 20.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | RH | 20.8% | 9.8% | 11.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.5% | 12.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.7% | 12.5% | 8.4% | LH | 23.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Road | 19.3% | 7.5% | 11.2% | RH | 20.7% | 9.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 15.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | RH | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | RH | 22.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | RH | 21.5% | 14.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 13.0% | 17.4% |
| Giants | Road | 23.6% | 11.9% | 5.4% | RH | 22.1% | 10.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 26.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | RH | 19.9% | 10.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 2.6% | 10.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.3% | 12.2% | 8.3% | RH | 19.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 16.7% | 6.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.5% | 9.4% | 10.1% | RH | 21.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 14.3% | 5.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.4% | 8.9% | 12.5% | RH | 20.3% | 9.6% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.9% | 16.0% | 9.9% | LH | 17.8% | 12.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 15.9% | 14.3% | 10.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | ||||||
| Alex Wood | ATL | 17.6% | 7.4% | 2.38 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 2.07 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 17.5% | 7.4% | 2.36 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.26 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | ||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 23.0% | 10.2% | 2.25 | 26.3% | 11.7% | 2.25 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.17 | 16.2% | 9.2% | 1.76 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 28.6% | 13.1% | 2.18 | 24.3% | 13.2% | 1.84 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 24.6% | 9.7% | 2.54 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 1.98 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 25.3% | 11.7% | 2.16 | 23.8% | 10.8% | 2.20 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 25.6% | 10.9% | 2.35 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 2.48 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 14.1% | 7.6% | 1.86 | |||
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 19.4% | 10.6% | 1.83 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 1.83 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 28.8% | 13.3% | 2.17 | |||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 14.4% | 7.1% | 2.03 | 12.8% | 6.7% | 1.91 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 16.7% | 9.4% | 1.78 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 1.86 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 12.0% | 6.1% | 1.97 | 16.3% | 6.8% | 2.40 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 12.4% | 5.2% | 2.38 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 2.83 |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 20.8% | 9.8% | 2.12 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 1.89 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 15.3% | 7.7% | 1.99 | 11.3% | 6.7% | 1.69 |
| Matt Harrison | TEX | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.92 | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.92 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 19.1% | 8.9% | 2.15 | 9.9% | 6.6% | 1.50 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 19.6% | 9.9% | 1.98 | 24.2% | 11.7% | 2.07 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 22.6% | 8.1% | 2.79 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 2.71 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.5% | 8.3% | 1.99 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.98 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 13.0% | 5.7% | 2.28 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 2.45 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 20.6% | 10.7% | 1.93 | 10.0% | 6.5% | 1.54 |
| Shane Greene | DET | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.04 | 8.7% | 7.0% | 1.24 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.18 | 28.6% | 15.2% | 1.88 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.64 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 2.64 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 20.4% | 8.9% | 2.29 | 16.7% | 10.0% | 1.67 |
Nate Karns is our only real outlier for the season today, validating the approach once again and even his K/SwStr is very borderline and could be the effect of solid pitch framing.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | ||||||||||||||
| Alex Wood | ATL | 3.76 | 3.99 | 0.23 | 3.77 | 0.01 | 3.19 | -0.57 | 4.85 | 3.74 | -1.11 | 3.39 | -1.46 | 2.71 | -2.14 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.17 | 3.19 | 0.02 | 3.3 | 0.13 | 3.55 | 0.38 | 2.53 | 2.82 | 0.29 | 2.88 | 0.35 | 3.4 | 0.87 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | ||||||||||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 3.8 | 4.27 | 0.47 | 3.87 | 0.07 | 3.69 | -0.11 | 3.68 | 4.3 | 0.62 | 3.6 | -0.08 | 4.74 | 1.06 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.39 | 3.4 | 0.01 | 3.4 | 0.01 | 3.21 | -0.18 | 2 | 3.75 | 1.75 | 3.76 | 1.76 | 2.98 | 0.98 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.74 | 2.84 | -0.9 | 2.93 | -0.81 | 3.36 | -0.38 | 4.26 | 3.35 | -0.91 | 3.35 | -0.91 | 3.06 | -1.2 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.3 | 2.98 | 0.68 | 2.94 | 0.64 | 2.73 | 0.43 | 4.1 | 3.61 | -0.49 | 3.52 | -0.58 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.14 | 3.03 | 0.89 | 3.02 | 0.88 | 2.61 | 0.47 | 1.27 | 3.28 | 2.01 | 3.66 | 2.39 | 2.31 | 1.04 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.86 | 3 | 0.14 | 3.12 | 0.26 | 3.05 | 0.19 | 2.75 | 3.2 | 0.45 | 3.29 | 0.54 | 3.06 | 0.31 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 4.1 | 4.56 | 0.46 | 4.56 | 0.46 | 4.28 | 0.18 | |||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 5.04 | 3.91 | -1.13 | 3.9 | -1.14 | 4.04 | -1 | 4.84 | 2.86 | -1.98 | 2.97 | -1.87 | 1.8 | -3.04 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 2.66 | 2.15 | -0.51 | 2.05 | -0.61 | 1.09 | -1.57 | |||||||
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 3.37 | 4.41 | 1.04 | 4.25 | 0.88 | 4.21 | 0.84 | 2.03 | 4.67 | 2.64 | 4.33 | 2.3 | 3.02 | 0.99 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 2.85 | 3.95 | 1.1 | 3.75 | 0.9 | 4 | 1.15 | 1.65 | 3.25 | 1.6 | 2.89 | 1.24 | 3.09 | 1.44 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 5.94 | 4.89 | -1.05 | 4.91 | -1.03 | 5.96 | 0.02 | 5.89 | 3.87 | -2.02 | 3.94 | -1.95 | 5.51 | -0.38 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 3.34 | 4.24 | 0.9 | 3.99 | 0.65 | 3.88 | 0.54 | 1.75 | 3.36 | 1.61 | 3.27 | 1.52 | 2.59 | 0.84 |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 4.9 | 3.83 | -1.07 | 3.7 | -1.2 | 3.48 | -1.42 | 3.6 | 3.76 | 0.16 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 4.36 | 0.76 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 5.55 | 4.38 | -1.17 | 4.21 | -1.34 | 4.95 | -0.6 | 7.79 | 4.6 | -3.19 | 4.64 | -3.15 | 5.71 | -2.08 |
| Matt Harrison | TEX | 13.5 | 7.26 | -6.24 | 7.25 | -6.25 | 8.06 | -5.44 | 13.5 | 7.26 | -6.24 | 7.25 | -6.25 | 8.06 | -5.44 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.85 | 3.88 | -0.97 | 4.03 | -0.82 | 4.62 | -0.23 | 3.44 | 4.76 | 1.32 | 4.68 | 1.24 | 4.42 | 0.98 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.93 | 3.6 | 0.67 | 3.46 | 0.53 | 3.06 | 0.13 | 4.5 | 2.91 | -1.59 | 2.79 | -1.71 | 2.22 | -2.28 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.63 | 3.76 | 0.13 | 3.73 | 0.1 | 3.71 | 0.08 | 3.96 | 3.28 | -0.68 | 3.47 | -0.49 | 2.9 | -1.06 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.5 | 3.87 | -0.63 | 3.7 | -0.8 | 3.53 | -0.97 | 2.93 | 3.49 | 0.56 | 3.31 | 0.38 | 2.3 | -0.63 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 4.64 | 4.22 | -0.42 | 4.17 | -0.47 | 4.48 | -0.16 | 3.57 | 3.83 | 0.26 | 3.88 | 0.31 | 3.85 | 0.28 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 5.9 | 3.81 | -2.09 | 3.92 | -1.98 | 3.23 | -2.67 | 10.38 | 4.3 | -6.08 | 3.74 | -6.64 | 5.13 | -5.25 |
| Shane Greene | DET | 6.32 | 4.48 | -1.84 | 4.4 | -1.92 | 4.87 | -1.45 | 13.5 | 6.59 | -6.91 | 7.11 | -6.39 | 9.7 | -3.8 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.84 | 3.5 | -1.34 | 3.73 | -1.11 | 4.1 | -0.74 | 4.45 | 2.56 | -1.89 | 3.1 | -1.35 | 3.88 | -0.57 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 3.94 | 4.19 | 0.25 | 4.39 | 0.45 | 3.65 | -0.29 | 3.63 | 4.28 | 0.65 | 4.43 | 0.8 | 3.6 | -0.03 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 2.78 | 3.74 | 0.96 | 3.82 | 1.04 | 4.19 | 1.41 | 2.48 | 4.09 | 1.61 | 3.95 | 1.47 | 5.06 | 2.58 |
Danny Salazar has a FIP that matches his ERA well above his other two estimators due to a 14.3 HR/FB, though he’s allowed just one over his last three starts.
Jacob deGrom has a 7.4 HR/FB that isn’t much higher than his 6.1 HR/FB last year. That’s something that may be sustainable in a great home park. He also has a .253 BABIP and while the Mets position themselves well, is unlikely to hold up without any great indicators and a normal line drive rate. The BABIP has been just .211 in his three starts over the last month.
Jeremy Hellickson has perfectly league average numbers aside from a 69.6 LOB% that is just a tad low. An 11.6 HR/FB is a bit above average, but something he may just have to live with in Arizona. His K% and K-BB% have increased every season since 2011 now.
Matt Shoemaker has a 14.3 HR/FB that matches his FIP with his ERA, though he’s allowed just three over his last eight starts and none in his last start in Colorado even.
Nathan Eovaldi has a .355 BABIP and .317 career BABIP, on a team with a .302 BABIP allowed. These three things, in line with a low pop up rate and 23.3 LD% near his career rate don’t bode well for his BABIP or ERA over the long run, but I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t regress closer to his career rate at least.
Raisel Iglesias has seemingly pitched better than his results have shown thanks to a .363 BABIP and 62.5 LOB%. His 7.6 Hard-Soft% suggests he hasn’t been hit hard and that’s backed up by a 6.1 HR/FB, but not a 26.1 LD%. He’s been fairly neutral in terms of grounders and fly balls, but with four pop ups (12.1%). With a LD rate closer to normal, he could be a league average pitcher if everything else holds, though I’d expect the HR rate to increase in that park.
Taijuan Walker has an ERA a little closer to his FIP due to a 13.1 HR/FB. Strangely enough, nine of his 16 HRs have come in just eight Safeco starts as opposed to 10 on the road with seven HRs. They seem to come in bunches too with five multiple HR starts, including a season high three to the Tigers two starts back. A 68.9 LOB%, likely owing a bit to that HR rate, has played a part in keeping his ERA well over four as well. His 16.7 K-BB% is very respectable and has improved greatly over the length of the season.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.323 | ||||
| Alex Wood | ATL | 0.308 | 0.348 | 0.04 | 9.0% | 89.9% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.299 | 0.318 | 0.019 | 1.5% | 91.9% |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | 0.304 | ||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.317 | 0.341 | 0.024 | 6.5% | 86.9% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.288 | 0.303 | 0.015 | 12.7% | 87.6% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.303 | 0.301 | -0.002 | 6.6% | 80.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.297 | 0.305 | 0.008 | 6.0% | 89.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.283 | 0.253 | -0.03 | 9.3% | 86.1% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.284 | 0.254 | -0.03 | 3.7% | 87.3% |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.279 | 0.296 | 0.017 | 9.1% | 89.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.293 | 0.309 | 0.016 | 5.4% | 86.6% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.311 | 0.345 | 0.034 | 0.0% | 89.5% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.277 | 0.295 | 0.018 | 6.5% | 92.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.295 | 0.268 | -0.027 | 9.8% | 89.3% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.309 | 0.287 | -0.022 | 8.8% | 90.6% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.289 | 0.274 | -0.015 | 8.3% | 92.3% |
| Mat Latos | FLA | 0.288 | 0.305 | 0.017 | 6.5% | 87.4% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.302 | 0.317 | 0.015 | 13.2% | 90.4% |
| Matt Harrison | TEX | 0.292 | 0.333 | 0.041 | 0.0% | 95.5% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.278 | 0.293 | 0.015 | 9.2% | 88.9% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.292 | 0.272 | -0.02 | 11.5% | 85.3% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.276 | 0.285 | 0.009 | 7.7% | 88.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.302 | 0.355 | 0.053 | 5.7% | 88.2% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 0.302 | 0.276 | -0.026 | 7.1% | 90.7% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 0.282 | 0.363 | 0.081 | 12.1% | 87.5% |
| Shane Greene | DET | 0.300 | 0.313 | 0.013 | 15.4% | 92.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.287 | 0.307 | 0.02 | 11.5% | 83.9% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 0.281 | 0.298 | 0.017 | 13.3% | 89.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.288 | 0.255 | -0.033 | 11.6% | 87.1% |
Alex Wood has a 23.5 LD% and gets a fairly normal percentage of pop ups and contact in the strike zone. You might expect his BABIP to be slightly worse than league average with these numbers and maybe even a bit higher due to his defense, but he shouldn’t be sitting near .350. It hasn’t hurt his ERA too much due to a 6.0 HR/FB.
Jason Hammel has a .254 BABIP with a strong defense, but a 23.2 LD% and just four pop ups this year. Regression closer to his team’s average is certainly expected.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Brett Anderson (2) – Calling him the 2nd best overall pitcher tonight may be a bit pushy due to a below average strikeout rate, but I have the utmost confidence in his ability to generate tons of weak ground balls against an Atlanta offense that is terrible vs LHP and may even pull his K% up to league average. It’s not well known that they actually strike out 22% of the time vs southpaws. Anderson is a little pricier than normal today, but still in the middle of the board in a great spot.
Matt Shoemaker (6t) – You can probably disregard this on Fanduel where he’s most costly, but I was despite his issues this season, I was surprised to see how far his price has fallen on other sites, including DraftKings tonight. The strikeout rate is down over the last month, but the velocity is actually up and he’s in potentially the top spot of the night against a terrible road team.
Value Tier One A
Raisel Iglesias gets his own special spot here. He’s our dumpster diving special as a minimally priced guy with some upside in his strikeout rate facing a team that strikes out a ton. He allows you to use someone like deGrom and still generate offense in your lineups.
Value Tier Two
Nate Karns (6t) is an average pitcher at an average price, who gets to face the Phillies. The Phillies would be the portion of that which generates the excess value if it wasn’t clear.
Jacob deGrom (1) is my top rated pitcher tonight, which should surprise nobody as he’s one of the top pitchers in the league. He faces a Washington offense without many of its best hitters. Although it’s not a projected blowout, this is where I think the top K% will come from and with the 18 inning game on Sunday, I think his manager will look to get him deep in this game to get them additional rest. Price is the obvious thing keeping him from the top tier today.
Value Tier Two A – This is just to show some separation between these two guys and the two above.
Joe Ross (5) is another great dumpster diving option tonight with a lot of upside in his strikeout rate and facing the worst road team in the majors, who may still be reeling from an 18 inning game on Sunday. I’m actually not even sure that I don’t have him too low, but for lack of information and small sample size. He hasn’t pitched in the majors in a month and has just three starts.
Chris Heston (8t) hasn’t been good in every start, but has been very good overall and finds himself in another favorable situation at a middle of the board price (except on DraftKings where this is less applicable). Similar to Karns, an average or slightly better pitcher at an average price in a good spot generates value.
Value Tier Three
Alex Wood doesn’t have a great matchup, but pitches well at home and is well priced (meaning low) on DraftKings especially. He’s slightly more expensive on most other sites.
Jason Hammel (4) is not in the best spot tonight, but has been really good, especially on the road (19.5 K-BB%) for the Cubs since last year. That’s nearly elite territory.
Danny Salazar (3) – You have to respect the tremendous upside in his K rate tonight even if he is facing a hot offense in a tough park. Enough strikeouts can wash away a few runs allowed, but the risk inherent and inconsistency in going deep into games keeps him from climbing much higher tonight despite my #2 projected K%.
Vincent Velasquez gets a small bump in value due to the state of the Red Sox (exhausted and bad). He’s really cut down on the walks over his last three starts with and has a price tag that sits on the lower end.
Michael Wacha (8t) – This might be a bit too low for him. He’s probably better and has a good matchup, but I’m a little hesitant on some of these Cardinal pitchers on the road. With essentially a league average 13.7 K-BB%, it’s been a low HR rate that has propped him up on the road, otherwise we’re paying up for a league average pitcher in a tough park, which is probably fine, but it’s not like he’s been the most consistent pitcher in the world either. I admit I should probably have him higher though, before someone says so in the comments.
A couple of other pitchers I wanted to mention before getting to the next tier because they don’t exactly fit anywhere due to the unknown and wide range of potential outcomes are the two guys making their major league debut:
Aaron Nola is in a good spot to succeed against a weak offense, but who knows what his leash will be like. The price is low enough (minimum in several spots) where he might be worth a shot though.
Brian Johnson carries a bit more risk against a potent Houston offense from the right side, but also potentially more upside in his strikeout rate at a similar price. The Astros strike out a lot and he’s shown some ability to miss bats in the minors.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window