Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, July 7th
There are not one, but two double headers on Tuesday, so here’s hoping the pitchers were listed on mlb.com in the correct order. Even so, there seems to be an absurd amount of small sample sizes and do not wants on today’s list, which may make today’s article a bit shorter. Fortunately, there are enough several studs on the mound too tonight, which could help us avoid wading through some potential traps.
Also, a quick note that there won’t be an article tomorrow. We’ll return Friday.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 1.9 | 3.82 | 5.31 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 5.12 | 3.23 | COL | 94 | 66 | 42 | 20.7% | 6.7% | 22.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 1.2 | 3.76 | 6.3 | 1.02 | 0.87 | 3.74 | 3.51 | SFO | 103 | 111 | 68 | 18.7% | 4.9% | 20.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 5.7 | 3.21 | 5.8 | 3.36 | 0.89 | 3.78 | 1.62 | PHI | 83 | 98 | 122 | 20.5% | 7.0% | 18.1% | 12.3% | 5.5% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.7 | 4.33 | 5.5 | 1.58 | 1.4 | 3.94 | 4.86 | ANA | 97 | 99 | 167 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 21.7% | 11.2% | 8.3% |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | -2.4 | 5.15 | 5.25 | 1.44 | 0.89 | 4.55 | 5.79 | LOS | 125 | 120 | 111 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 22.3% | 14.1% | 7.2% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 12.4 | 5.14 | 5.65 | 0.41 | 1.04 | 5.01 | 4.57 | TAM | 90 | 90 | 51 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 18.8% | 5.8% | 10.0% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -5.1 | 2.71 | 6.78 | 1.56 | 0.94 | 2.65 | 1.47 | HOU | 104 | 108 | 126 | 28.5% | 6.0% | 22.1% | 11.8% | 9.4% |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | 5.4 | 5.51 | 5.5 | 2 | 1.05 | 3.04 | STL | 95 | 104 | 48 | ||||||
| Dan Haren | FLA | 5.2 | 3.71 | 5.89 | 0.91 | 1.07 | 3.78 | 4.12 | BOS | 108 | 102 | 127 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 21.1% | 10.7% | 11.1% |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 2.9 | 4.66 | 5.41 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 4.29 | 2.91 | CHW | 74 | 56 | 89 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 25.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -5.5 | 3.42 | 5.98 | 2.02 | 0.91 | 3.27 | 4.88 | SDG | 85 | 90 | 50 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 19.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 1.2 | 3.17 | 7.06 | 1.29 | 1.03 | 3.63 | 3.17 | WAS | 97 | 100 | 84 | 22.8% | 8.0% | 18.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -12 | 3.61 | 6.24 | 1.28 | 1.08 | 3.31 | 3.09 | TOR | 100 | 137 | 135 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 23.3% | 9.2% | 11.7% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.1 | 3.81 | 5.65 | 1.2 | 1.05 | 3.87 | 2.76 | MIN | 105 | 88 | 95 | 21.4% | 7.2% | 19.7% | 7.2% | 13.1% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3 | 4.28 | 5.8 | 2.03 | 1.05 | 3.78 | 3.46 | BAL | 91 | 102 | 65 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 5.1 | 4.76 | 5.4 | 1.76 | 0.85 | 4.57 | 6.11 | SEA | 92 | 88 | 82 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 11.3% | 7.9% |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | -2.1 | 1.51 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.07 | 1.51 | MIL | 84 | 71 | 149 | ||||||
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.5 | 4.26 | 5.87 | 1.14 | 0.87 | 3.91 | 6.59 | NYM | 73 | 84 | 60 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 11.9% | 11.4% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 12.9 | 4.3 | 5.47 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 4.16 | 4.36 | KAN | 99 | 93 | 61 | 16.9% | 8.5% | 24.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -3.4 | 2.91 | 6.82 | 0.8 | 1.03 | 3.17 | 2.48 | CIN | 86 | 95 | 78 | 22.4% | 5.6% | 18.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -5.2 | 4.03 | 5.86 | 1.44 | 1.02 | 3.65 | 4.21 | OAK | 99 | 107 | 88 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 21.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.4 | 4.33 | 5.24 | 0.79 | 1.08 | 4.01 | 3.74 | TEX | 99 | 82 | 83 | 19.7% | 6.5% | 18.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -8.1 | 3.39 | 6.55 | 1.99 | 1.02 | 3.32 | 2.7 | NYY | 126 | 107 | 76 | 21.7% | 7.9% | 18.2% | 12.0% | 9.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -4.8 | 3.69 | 5.63 | 1.12 | 0.85 | 3.31 | 2.82 | DET | 109 | 110 | 151 | 22.4% | 5.9% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 5.7 | 3.61 | 4.05 | 1 | 1.05 | 3.59 | CHC | 80 | 103 | 48 | ||||||
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | -3.4 | 3.96 | 7. | 2.2 | 1.07 | 6.91 | ATL | 88 | 95 | 92 | ||||||
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -13.3 | 3.2 | 6.18 | 2.7 | 0.91 | 3.38 | 4.72 | PIT | 98 | 95 | 117 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 20.8% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | -3.9 | 4.29 | 5.04 | 0.39 | 0.94 | 5.4 | 4.38 | CLE | 111 | 97 | 81 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 21.8% | 6.8% | 13.0% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -3.8 | 3.92 | 6.03 | 1.75 | 1.07 | 3.5 | 5.09 | FLA | 87 | 104 | 99 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 14.5% | 10.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.7 | 3.87 | 6.02 | 1.76 | 1.08 | 3.81 | 5.14 | ARI | 95 | 95 | 127 | 18.0% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% |
Bartolo Colon is coming off one of his best outings of the season, striking out eight Cubs in part due to a generous strike zone, but give him credit for being able to take advantage of it the way he did. The Giants don’t strike out a lot, but that’s not really his game anyway. A start against a slumping offense in a big park should work in his favor. The Giants have just a 7.7 HR/FB at home. More importantly than probably any other pitcher, watch for an umpire assignment in his favor, although for the late game, you may not get one before lock.
Brett Anderson over his last two starts has faced 53 batters, 41 one of which have either ended as ground balls or strikeouts. He now has a 2.4 Hard-Soft% on the season and look who he faces tonight! Well, to be fair, the Phillies aren’t even tonight’s top matchup even in a pitcher’s park and they haven’t been terrible vs LHP this year (98 wRC+), but they do have a 0.7 Hard-Soft% against them and 6.1 HR/FB on the road. Can you say weak ground ball? Vin Scully should be saying it a lot tonight when the Dodgers are playing defense.
Corey Kluber is one of your studs tonight. Don’t over-think it just because it didn’t work out for Carrasco last night. He’s been allowing some runs lately, but has struck out 24 of his last 60 batters and should pile them up against the Astros. He has a 22.4 K-BB% at home since last season. The Astros strike out 24.4% on the road, 25.9% vs RHP, and 25.5% over the last week, but have a 15.9 HR/FB vs RHP.
Felix Doubront gets a mention because he has a left arm and throws with it. That’s basically the requirement to be worth a shot against the White Sox. He hasn’t been a useful pitcher in a couple of years (he’s thrown just 2.1 major league innings this year), but the depth the White Sox inability to put up any kind of offense against lefties is really stunning. They have a 17.1 K-BB%, 7.5 HR/FB, and 2.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP and are also the worst home offense in baseball as well.
Francisco Liriano is best in the majors at inducing weak contact (-6.6 Hard-Soft%), although he does have a 13.2 HR/FB this year with seven of his nine HRs coming at home, which is a surprise because Pittsburgh is so tough on RH power. Strikeouts are still a strength of his game, but they’ve been really hit or miss since the first month of the season. He has four double digit strikeout efforts over his last 12 starts, but no more than six in any of the other eight. There’s good news in his SwStr rate though. He has cut his walk rate down to league average. The Padres represent a great matchup in a good park with a 24.3 K% vs LHP.
Johnny Cueto is coming off a strong start against Minnesota, but has been just above league average on the road since last year (3.63 xFIP). His 19.4 K-BB% overall this year is his highest mark ever thanks to a career low 4.9 BB%. Washington is about as league average and neutral in almost every way you can find in this spot.
Jose Quintana is coming off a strong start against a team that struggles against LHP (St. Louis), but now faces the baddest team in the land against them. Chris Sale made it look easy enough and Quintana pitches well at home, but it’s risky to expect two consecutive lefties to put the Blue Jays down. They did snap Sale’s consecutive double digit strikeout streak and have a 7.3 K-BB% vs LHP with a 13.9 HR/FB. The represent the toughest park adjusted matchup outside of Colorado today.
Kevin Gausman was alright in his first start, but dominated Texas in his last with seven strikeouts and no runs into the seventh inning. Minnesota is an average matchup here in most ways, but does not hit RHP very well. Gausman has a 1.5 Hard-Soft% this season to go with his league average 13.4 K-BB%, but has allowed some more hard contact (20.0 Hard-Soft%) in his two starts.
Kyle Gibson has allowed two ERs or fewer in each of his last three starts, though he’s struggled with control occasionally. He’s seen his K% rise over the last month to nearly a league average mark without a rise in SwStr%, but this is something we’ve been hoping for out of him for a while now. Let’s hope he can maintain it. Baltimore seems to be a different offense on the road and have been cold over the last week. They should help his strikeout rate as well (23.9 K% on the road, 22.6 K% vs RHP).
Manuel Banuelos dominated Washington, striking out seven of 20 batters in his major league debut, allowing only two hits without a run, but hasn’t really dominated batters in the minors in a while. Some of that was due to missing the entire 2013 season with an injury, but it’s just tough to imagine his 90.3 mph fastball doing that again. He faces a Milwaukee team that’s been awful vs LHP, but has been red hot and has the potential to be much more dangerous.
Max Scherzer is another one of your studs. He’s gone at least eight innings with seven strikeouts and two runs or less in each of his last four starts. He’s dominated with strikeouts this year and managed contact well with a 2.7 Hard-Soft%. He has a solid matchup with a Cincinnati team who struggles a bit when their power can’t play up at home. They do only have an 18.1 K% vs RHP and have struck out just 13.7% over the last week.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed just one HR over his last four home starts and has a strong ground ball rate, but also a 30.9% hard hit rate. The A’s have just a 7.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and don’t have a ton of power, but strike out just 17.3% of the time against them with an above average offense overall that the park adjusts up slightly.
Robbie Ray strikes out a league average rate of batters (20.1%), but gives up a lot of hard contact (25.2 Hard-Soft%). His main appeal today though, is that he faces a team that runs heavily LH through the middle of the order and struggles against pitchers from that side with a 23.5 K%.
Sonny Gray has excelled at contact management this season (1.7 Hard-Soft%), but leaves the friendly confines of Oakland to face the 2nd best home offense in baseball. You also have to wonder about his strength and stamina after an illness had him hospitalized last week for a few days.
Taijuan Walker is a pitcher I’ve been scared off of all season, so why change my tune when he’s facing one of the hottest offenses in baseball? He’s been lights out for about a month and a half now, allowing one ER or less in five of his last seven starts with an amazing 26.4 K-BB%, realizing the talent that we all knew was there. His walk rate on the season is now down to 6.5% with a 28.6 K% at home since last season. While it did no such thing last night, the park should mute the Detroit offense somewhat, turning a tough matchup into a more neutral one.
Tyson Ross has been getting some decent results with at last six strikeouts in four straight starts, but has struggled with control, walking exactly five in three of those. He hasn’t allowed a HR since April 28th and isn’t at home tonight, but is in another great pitcher’s park that kills RH power. He’s backed that up with some solid contact management skills this year (3.3 Hard-Soft%) and faces a mediocre offense that should play down with the park into a good matchup here.
Wade Miley had been pitching well, but walked seven in his last start. That was against a Toronto lineup he may not have wanted to throw strikes against. He got the W though, so he must have been doing something right. His ERA over four with estimators and a 6.9 K-BB% to match have been a big disappointment in Boston this year, but he should be in a better spot than it appears tonight. The Marlins have been above average vs LHP with a 17.5 HR/FB, a lot of that damage is now on the DL and they just sent Marcell Ozuna down due to poor performance. They also strike out at an above average rate (22.1 K% on the road and 22.0 K% vs LHP). In addition, Miley has been good at limiting hard contact (5.9 Hard-Soft%) this season and the Marlins have just a 6.8 Hard-Soft% vs LHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Dan Haren (.247 BABIP – 79.3 LOB% – 10.5 HR/FB)
Chris Young (.213 BABIP – 78.6 LOB% – 5.6 HR/FB) – These numbers are even lower than his usual peripheral beating stats. He’s more real life valuable than fantasy valuable with stats like these and an 8.7 K-BB%.
Yovani Gallardo (.256 BABIP – 76.3 LOB% – 7.7 HR/FB) – He hasn’t allowed a run in four starts, but just a total of 13 strikeouts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tim Cooney struck out six of 23 Padres in his last start, but that’s not his game. He’s had a below average strikeout rate at just about every stop in the minors and that’s really your upside against the Cubs. He’s also allowed 46.2% of his batted balls to be hit hard so far.
Andrew Heaney – This is not an indictment at all on a guy who has pitched well, but rather of the unfortunate situation he finds himself in today. In fact, he nearly merited a write-up despite because the Rockies are so awful vs LHP, but Colorado conquers all. Take pride in being my cutoff point today young man.
Tyler Cravy had a strong spot start about a month ago against St. Louis, but has been otherwise very mediocre at AAA this season. The Braves represent a neutral matchup here, but will limit upside with just a 17.0 K% vs RHP.
Matt Moore barely hit 90 in his first start and 40% of his batted balls were hit hard. The Royals don’t hit the ball hard, but limit the upside of most pitchers by not striking out.
Matt Cain has a good matchup and the velocity wasn’t too bad in his first start, but he walked four and only struck out two. I have no idea what he has in the tank now.
Dallas Beeler is just a guy filling a spot. He doesn’t miss bats or have any particular prospect appeal as a 26 year old.
Chad Billingsly
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 18.5% | 5.8% | Road | 15.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 18.0% | 3.5% | Road | 16.4% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 3.8% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 18.1% | 7.1% | Home | 13.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 5.7% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 15.6% | 8.5% | Home | 15.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Chad Billingsley | Phillies | 8.0% | 6.0% | Road | 8.7% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 3.7% | 11.1% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 15.7% | 8.2% | Home | 18.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.7% | 5.4% | Home | 27.4% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 3.3% |
| Dallas Beeler | Cubs | 13.0% | 15.2% | Home | 26.1% | 13.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 19.7% | 4.7% | Road | 19.9% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| Felix Doubront | Blue Jays | 15.5% | 9.3% | Road | 14.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.5% | 10.3% | Home | 24.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 10.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 24.8% | 6.3% | Road | 21.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 7.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 20.9% | 6.2% | Home | 22.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.7% | 8.2% | Road | 20.8% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 14.3% | 8.0% | Home | 14.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 8.6% |
| Kyle Ryan | Tigers | 12.0% | 9.4% | Road | 7.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 17.1% |
| Manuel Banuelos | Braves | 35.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 35.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Matt Cain | Giants | 18.0% | 8.5% | Home | 19.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 16.0% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 20.1% | 10.6% | Road | 11.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.2% | 6.1% | Home | 27.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.8% | 6.3% | Home | 17.1% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 17.4% | 7.2% | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.1% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.9% | 7.6% | Road | 21.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.3% | 7.9% | Home | 28.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 0.0% |
| Tim Cooney | Cardinals | 23.7% | 7.9% | Road | L14 Days | 26.1% | 8.7% | ||
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 18.8% | 9.4% | Home | L14 Days | 0.0% | 11.1% | ||
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.9% | 9.5% | Road | 22.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 20.0% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 24.5% | 11.3% | Road | 27.8% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 18.9% | 8.4% | Home | 20.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 18.0% | 7.3% | Home | 18.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 9.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 17.6% | 6.9% | LH | 25.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 5.2% |
| Giants | Home | 17.5% | 7.7% | RH | 17.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 3.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.7% | 6.1% | LH | 19.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Road | 18.4% | 7.8% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.4% | 10.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.6% | 8.9% | RH | 19.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.7% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 7.2% | RH | 22.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 30.2% | 6.8% |
| Astros | Road | 24.4% | 7.3% | RH | 25.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.5% | 6.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.8% | 7.4% | RH | 19.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.9% | 8.4% | RH | 16.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 14.9% | 10.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.9% | 6.8% | LH | 22.4% | 5.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 4.6% |
| Padres | Road | 22.0% | 7.5% | LH | 24.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.1% | 8.0% | RH | 20.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.5% | 7.5% | LH | 16.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.7% |
| Twins | Home | 18.4% | 6.3% | RH | 20.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.9% | 6.8% | RH | 22.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.5% | 7.8% | LH | 20.6% | 5.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 4.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.6% | 6.7% | LH | 21.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 13.9% | 8.9% |
| Mets | Road | 22.9% | 6.0% | RH | 20.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.4% | 4.9% |
| Royals | Home | 14.7% | 6.7% | LH | 15.7% | 5.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.5% |
| Reds | Road | 19.3% | 7.5% | RH | 18.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 13.7% | 6.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.0% | 8.5% | RH | 17.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 8.1% | LH | 23.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.6% | 6.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.8% | 9.0% | RH | 18.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.2% | 8.1% | RH | 18.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.2% | 4.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.3% | 9.1% | LH | 22.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
| Braves | Road | 18.2% | 7.0% | RH | 17.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 5.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 7.1% | RH | 19.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.3% |
| Indians | Home | 19.1% | 10.5% | RH | 18.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.1% | 5.9% | LH | 22.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 16.5% | 9.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.4% | 7.4% | RH | 19.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.2% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 20.8% | 15.6% | 8.9% | Road | 24.5% | 21.1% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | Road | 22.0% | 11.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 14.8% | 11.0% | 4.4% | Home | 16.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 22.1% | 10.6% | 6.1% | Home | 26.2% | 11.6% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Chad Billingsley | Phillies | 20.5% | 11.1% | 3.7% | Road | 21.1% | 33.3% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 18.5% | 7.8% | 14.0% | Home | 17.4% | 5.5% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.4% | 8.4% | 10.7% | Home | 20.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Dallas Beeler | Cubs | 12.9% | 0.0% | 22.2% | Home | 15.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 20.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | Road | 20.0% | 13.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.3% | 12.5% |
| Felix Doubront | Blue Jays | 20.4% | 9.1% | 11.6% | Road | 29.5% | 3.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 20.1% | 11.7% | 8.1% | Home | 18.5% | 15.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds | 19.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | Road | 21.7% | 8.2% | 14.6% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.4% | 7.4% | 9.4% | Home | 21.8% | 3.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.0% | 6.2% | 11.8% | Road | 19.9% | 7.0% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 19.9% | 10.7% | 11.4% | Home | 22.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Ryan | Tigers | 13.2% | 13.2% | 2.6% | Road | 13.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Manuel Banuelos | Braves | 36.4% | 0.0% | 50.0% | Road | L14 Days | 36.4% | 0.0% | 50.0% | |||
| Matt Cain | Giants | 21.3% | 11.6% | 13.7% | Home | 16.2% | 10.4% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 18.8% | 8.5% | 12.2% | Road | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.3% | 6.5% | 9.3% | Home | 19.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 5.3% | 15.8% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | Home | 21.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | Road | 23.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | Road | 15.3% | 6.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.1% | 9.9% | 11.9% | Home | 17.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 5.6% | 22.2% |
| Tim Cooney | Cardinals | 15.4% | 27.3% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 13.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Tyler Cravy | Brewers | 30.4% | 0.0% | 20.0% | Home | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 19.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% | Road | 22.5% | 13.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 22.1% | 5.3% | 13.2% | Road | 16.7% | 0.0% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 5.0% | 15.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.0% | 11.3% | 6.1% | Home | 18.9% | 15.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 19.7% | 10.6% | 6.0% | Home | 19.9% | 13.1% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 22.3% | 12.9% | 8.9% | LH | 23.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% |
| Giants | Home | 19.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | RH | 21.5% | 10.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 17.3% | 11.5% | 1.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.4% | 6.1% | 9.7% | LH | 22.5% | 9.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Road | 18.6% | 10.4% | 7.7% | RH | 20.2% | 10.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.2% | 12.3% | 14.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.7% | 14.2% | 7.9% | RH | 21.4% | 15.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| Rays | Road | 22.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | RH | 21.8% | 9.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 2.6% | 5.1% |
| Astros | Road | 23.3% | 12.6% | 10.7% | RH | 20.9% | 15.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.0% | 11.0% | 11.3% | RH | 22.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.4% | 3.6% | 9.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | RH | 20.2% | 9.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.0% | 10.1% | 10.1% | LH | 21.8% | 7.5% | 11.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.1% | 6.8% |
| Padres | Road | 19.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | LH | 21.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 15.8% | 8.1% | 14.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 11.6% | 7.8% | RH | 20.8% | 12.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.2% | 11.7% | 15.0% | LH | 21.3% | 13.9% | 18.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | RH | 20.6% | 8.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | RH | 21.0% | 14.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.8% | 12.3% | 9.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% | LH | 18.2% | 13.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.6% | 16.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.8% | 10.9% | 7.2% | LH | 15.9% | 11.1% | 5.2% | L7Days | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.8% |
| Mets | Road | 23.6% | 8.2% | 10.7% | RH | 22.9% | 7.6% | 11.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Home | 21.4% | 6.4% | 10.2% | LH | 24.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.1% | 7.7% |
| Reds | Road | 20.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | RH | 21.2% | 11.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.1% | 11.0% | 8.4% | RH | 21.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 5.3% | 18.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.7% | 11.1% | 8.7% | LH | 19.6% | 11.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 14.8% | 11.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.2% | 16.1% | 8.9% | RH | 21.3% | 13.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.0% | 11.4% | 5.7% | RH | 22.0% | 9.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.8% | 14.7% | 10.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.6% | LH | 23.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 12.3% | 5.4% | 9.5% |
| Braves | Road | 22.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | RH | 22.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.6% | 13.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.3% | 10.0% | 5.1% | RH | 21.1% | 9.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 17.2% | 10.9% | 1.6% |
| Indians | Home | 23.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | RH | 20.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | L7Days | 23.7% | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.5% | 13.4% | 7.4% | LH | 21.5% | 17.5% | 5.8% | L7Days | 16.4% | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | RH | 21.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 25.5% | 12.9% | 1.98 | 25.5% | 12.9% | 1.98 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 18.9% | 6.4% | 2.95 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 3.20 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 17.8% | 7.0% | 2.54 | 19.1% | 6.8% | 2.81 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 19.1% | 9.9% | 1.93 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 1.83 |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.78 | 3.7% | 5.4% | 0.69 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 15.7% | 9.0% | 1.74 | 11.0% | 7.7% | 1.43 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 29.4% | 14.0% | 2.10 | 26.5% | 11.8% | 2.25 |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | ||||||
| Dan Haren | FLA | 17.9% | 5.9% | 3.03 | 20.2% | 6.2% | 3.26 |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 11.1% | 9.1% | 1.22 | 11.1% | 9.1% | 1.22 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 27.9% | 14.2% | 1.96 | 23.7% | 14.6% | 1.62 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 24.3% | 11.0% | 2.21 | 27.3% | 12.9% | 2.12 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 19.9% | 9.9% | 2.01 | 18.1% | 9.6% | 1.89 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.01 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 1.75 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.5% | 8.6% | 1.80 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 2.43 |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 12.7% | 6.6% | 1.92 | 13.8% | 5.8% | 2.38 |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 35.0% | 13.3% | 2.63 | 35.0% | 13.3% | 2.63 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.78 | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.78 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 19.1% | 11.1% | 1.72 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 1.72 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 30.8% | 14.2% | 2.17 | 33.8% | 15.0% | 2.25 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.03 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 1.96 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 20.1% | 7.2% | 2.79 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 2.90 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 22.9% | 10.1% | 2.27 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 2.22 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 23.1% | 10.1% | 2.29 | 28.4% | 12.5% | 2.27 |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 23.7% | 9.2% | 2.58 | 26.1% | 10.1% | 2.58 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 18.8% | 7.9% | 2.38 | 0.0% | 5.1% | 0.00 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.1% | 12.9% | 1.95 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.14 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 24.5% | 8.5% | 2.88 | 24.5% | 8.5% | 2.88 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 15.9% | 7.8% | 2.04 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 2.07 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 17.4% | 6.7% | 2.60 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 2.45 |
Bartolo Colon – If you are a regular reader, you probably know that he might be just about the only pitcher in the league who I’ll give credit for a K/SwStr around 3.0. He’s done it several years running now and the Mets catchers are very good at framing pitches according to StatCorner.com.
Francisco Liriano has failed to strike out more than six batters in five of his last six starts, but not for lack of swings and misses. He has a double digit SwStr% in all six of those starts and been above 14% three times. You can’t blame the catching either as Cervelli and Stewart are premier pitch framers. I’d expect him to trend closer to his season K% going forward.
Robbie Ray has one game with a double digit SwStr% and has been below 7% in four of his last five. The catching situation has been a bit of a mess in Arizona all season, so they’re not helping. I expect some regression in his strikeout rate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 1.38 | 3.23 | 1.85 | 3.21 | 1.83 | 2.93 | 1.55 | 1.38 | 3.23 | 1.85 | 3.21 | 1.83 | 2.93 | 1.55 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.55 | 3.61 | -0.94 | 3.6 | -0.95 | 3.69 | -0.86 | 4.15 | 3.62 | -0.53 | 3.64 | -0.51 | 3.41 | -0.74 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3 | 3.14 | 0.14 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 3.47 | 0.47 | 2.45 | 3.05 | 0.6 | 3.19 | 0.74 | 3.66 | 1.21 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 3.67 | 3.92 | 0.25 | 3.75 | 0.08 | 3.38 | -0.29 | 4.82 | 4.19 | -0.63 | 3.92 | -0.9 | 4.58 | -0.24 |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | 7.71 | 5.15 | -2.56 | 4.96 | -2.75 | 5.04 | -2.67 | 10.8 | 5.79 | -5.01 | 5.59 | -5.21 | 4.48 | -6.32 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 2.64 | 4.92 | 2.28 | 4.98 | 2.34 | 3.88 | 1.24 | 2.76 | 5.44 | 2.68 | 5.29 | 2.53 | 4.35 | 1.59 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.64 | 2.57 | -1.07 | 2.56 | -1.08 | 2.45 | -1.19 | 3.71 | 3.19 | -0.52 | 3.16 | -0.55 | 3.08 | -0.63 |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | ||||||||||||||
| Dan Haren | FLA | 3.45 | 4.15 | 0.7 | 4.32 | 0.87 | 4.29 | 0.84 | 4.06 | 3.98 | -0.08 | 4.2 | 0.14 | 3.73 | -0.33 |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 3.86 | 2.91 | -0.95 | 2.82 | -1.04 | 2.23 | -1.63 | 3.86 | 2.91 | -0.95 | 2.82 | -1.04 | 2.23 | -1.63 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 2.99 | 2.97 | -0.02 | 2.85 | -0.14 | 3.07 | 0.08 | 2.52 | 3.07 | 0.55 | 3.1 | 0.58 | 3.14 | 0.62 |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 2.84 | 3.17 | 0.33 | 3.24 | 0.4 | 3.26 | 0.42 | 2.7 | 2.99 | 0.29 | 3.25 | 0.55 | 3.08 | 0.38 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.81 | 3.74 | -0.07 | 3.71 | -0.1 | 3.38 | -0.43 | 2.81 | 3.78 | 0.97 | 3.73 | 0.92 | 3.71 | 0.9 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 3.09 | 3.7 | 0.61 | 4.22 | 1.13 | 3.56 | 0.47 | 1.59 | 4.08 | 2.49 | 4.32 | 2.73 | 2.73 | 1.14 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.04 | 4.13 | 1.09 | 3.96 | 0.92 | 4.19 | 1.15 | 3.13 | 3.73 | 0.6 | 3.41 | 0.28 | 3.4 | 0.27 |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 4.55 | 5.2 | 0.65 | 5.01 | 0.46 | 5.76 | 1.21 | 5.6 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 5.25 | -0.35 | 6.31 | 0.71 |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 0 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0 | 1.51 | 1.51 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 9 | 6.59 | -2.41 | 6.35 | -2.65 | 9.88 | 0.88 | 9 | 6.59 | -2.41 | 6.35 | -2.65 | 9.88 | 0.88 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 7.71 | 4.33 | -3.38 | 4.14 | -3.57 | 2.66 | -5.05 | 7.71 | 4.36 | -3.35 | 4.14 | -3.57 | 2.66 | -5.05 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1.82 | 2.43 | 0.61 | 2.77 | 0.95 | 1.94 | 0.12 | 1.76 | 1.99 | 0.23 | 2.4 | 0.64 | 1.55 | -0.21 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.52 | 4.01 | -0.51 | 3.84 | -0.68 | 3.76 | -0.76 | 5.4 | 4.03 | -1.37 | 3.84 | -1.56 | 3.08 | -2.32 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.55 | 3.98 | 1.43 | 4.1 | 1.55 | 2.94 | 0.39 | 3.16 | 4.24 | 1.08 | 4.4 | 1.24 | 3.37 | 0.21 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.09 | 3.25 | 1.16 | 3.29 | 1.2 | 2.67 | 0.58 | 3.51 | 3.22 | -0.29 | 3.2 | -0.31 | 2.81 | -0.7 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.34 | 3.54 | -0.8 | 3.72 | -0.62 | 3.95 | -0.39 | 1.67 | 2.47 | 0.8 | 2.73 | 1.06 | 2.43 | 0.76 |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 5.4 | 3.6 | -1.8 | 3.84 | -1.56 | 6.68 | 1.28 | 3 | 3.59 | 0.59 | 3.93 | 0.93 | 6.42 | 3.42 |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 2 | 3.96 | 1.96 | 3.52 | 1.52 | 2.75 | 0.75 | 4.5 | 6.91 | 2.41 | 5.97 | 1.47 | 4.58 | 0.08 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.63 | 3.48 | -0.15 | 3.25 | -0.38 | 3 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 3.72 | 0.34 | 3.37 | -0.01 | 2.9 | -0.48 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 4.21 | 4.28 | 0.07 | 4.51 | 0.3 | 3.47 | -0.74 | 4.21 | 4.29 | 0.08 | 4.51 | 0.3 | 3.47 | -0.74 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 4.53 | 4.53 | 0 | 4.48 | -0.05 | 4.1 | -0.43 | 4.23 | 4.45 | 0.22 | 4.4 | 0.17 | 4.93 | 0.7 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 2.56 | 3.99 | 1.43 | 3.82 | 1.26 | 3.48 | 0.92 | 0.54 | 3.95 | 3.41 | 3.69 | 3.15 | 2.6 | 2.06 |
Bartolo Colon – This seems like a mere sequencing issue. He’s stranding exactly two thirds of his runners, which is six points less than his career rate and the lowest mark for any season in which he’s pitched at least 100 innings.
Corey Kluber – A familiar refrain with these Cleveland pitcher who have ERAs well above their estimators is a high BABIP, some of which can be blamed on them and some on their defense. Kluber’s contact authority rates are a little higher than usual, but both his HR/FB and LD% are actually slightly lower than his career rates. His other indicators in the BABIP chart are ok, but with a career .329 BABIP now, I don’t have too much hope. Perhaps his ERA will move closer to three though if he can get his strand rate (69.3%) over 70.
Kyle Gibson has a .267 BABIP that’s a little too low and will probably regress some along with his 80.0 LOB% without any strong indicators. He has a 13.0 HR/FB, but generally keeps the ball on the ground so it’s not too big of an issue.
Nathan Eovaldi has had issues with BABIP in the past (.316 career), but his .352 mark this year is a career worst. The defense is no help and he doesn’t get a lot of pop ups. His 23.6 LD% is a little high, but not much worse than his career rate. I’d expect some improvement, but maybe not much. His LOB% and HR/FB are normal.
Robbie Ray gets hit very hard, as we’ve already mentioned, yet has just a 19.7 LD% and 3.7 HR/FB pitching in Arizona. That doesn’t add up. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher that could run into trouble when his rates normalize.
Sonny Gray has a .259 BABIP I can’t find much fault with due to his surroundings. He also helps himself with a lot of pop ups and an absurd 13.8 LD% that I expect will rise some, but he doesn’t get hit hard. I’d expect some regression from a 5.3 HR/FB, but more outside Oakland like tonight than at home.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.273 | 0.161 | -0.112 | 8.3% | 83.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.285 | 0.301 | 0.016 | 8.0% | 91.3% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.302 | 0.320 | 0.018 | 1.9% | 91.4% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.314 | 0.296 | -0.018 | 7.4% | 94.0% |
| Chad Billingsley | PHI | 0.317 | 0.361 | 0.044 | 3.7% | 94.3% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.274 | 0.213 | -0.061 | 13.6% | 87.3% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.309 | 0.341 | 0.032 | 7.4% | 85.1% |
| Dallas Beeler | CHC | 0.288 | ||||
| Dan Haren | FLA | 0.291 | 0.247 | -0.044 | 12.6% | 91.9% |
| Felix Doubront | TOR | 0.289 | 0.375 | 0.086 | 0.0% | 90.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.298 | 0.247 | -0.051 | 11.8% | 83.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.280 | 0.236 | -0.044 | 11.8% | 85.6% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.321 | 0.337 | 0.016 | 5.1% | 87.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.283 | 0.262 | -0.021 | 20.0% | 89.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.298 | 0.267 | -0.031 | 9.1% | 90.3% |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 0.294 | 0.259 | -0.035 | 0.0% | 90.4% |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 0.301 | 0.182 | -0.119 | 50.0% | 85.0% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.285 | 0.294 | 0.009 | 16.7% | 95.7% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.276 | 0.400 | 0.124 | 0.0% | 92.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.310 | 0.246 | -0.064 | 13.1% | 80.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.046 | 5.0% | 88.8% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.293 | 0.273 | -0.02 | 7.4% | 88.5% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.280 | 0.259 | -0.021 | 12.6% | 86.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.288 | 0.305 | 0.017 | 11.2% | 83.4% |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 0.289 | 0.348 | 0.059 | 0.0% | 83.8% |
| Tyler Cravy | MIL | 0.307 | 0.304 | -0.003 | 20.0% | 89.2% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.304 | 0.341 | 0.037 | 2.1% | 83.1% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 0.280 | 0.303 | 0.023 | 13.2% | 90.3% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.308 | 0.305 | -0.003 | 9.1% | 89.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.289 | 0.256 | -0.033 | 7.7% | 88.6% |
Francisco Liriano is generating some insane numbers. He has great indicators in the BABIP chart above, but also generates a lot of ground balls (2.01 GB/FB) with a good LD rate (19.3%). He leads the majors in softly hit balls (29.3%). Everything except the IFFB% and Soft% are things that he’s done throughout his career. In fact, the other numbers (Z-Contact%, LD%) basically match his career rate where he has a .297 BABIP that is in line with what Pittsburgh allows as a defense. It hasn’t been above .290 in either of his years in Pittsburgh though, so if he maintains all of this, I’d expect him to sustain a lower BABIP.
Johnny Cueto is still doing his BABIP thing, but with standard strand and HR rates. This is now the 3rd straight year he’s had a mark in the .230’s. There’s some deception in his delivery that stats can’t capture and he has good numbers in his BABIP chart, though not elite. The Cincinnati defense has always been strong at BABIP suppression. His LD% is normal and he allows almost as many fly balls as ground balls. I can’t find the reason he’s kept his BABIP so low, but if he manages to do it for a 3rd consecutive season, maybe he just is the ultimate outlier.
Max Scherzer has occasionally struggled with BABIP, especially early in his career, but has also never managed contact like this. His hard hit rate is well below his career average with a career low 17.7 LD% this season. His IFFB% and Z-Contact% are both elite this season. I have no issue with him maintaining a low BABIP with these numbers, but unfortunately, the Washington defense has been a huge disappointment and won’t allow for it to continue being this low.
Tyson Ross – We know that contact authority rates don’t correlate as well with BABIP as overall performance for a pitcher, so maybe the 3.3 Hard-Soft% isn’t the best indicator here. He’s gotten just one IFFB this year, but batters struggle to make contact with his pitches in the zone and his line drive rate is about average. In addition, he has one of the highest ground ball rates in the game (62.1%), so that’s a lot of weak ground balls. I’m going to blame some of this on the San Diego defense and expect the rest to regress in his favor. He had a .291 BABIP last year.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
In a practice started last week, we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Brett Anderson (3) will strike out enough batters (17.8% this year) to be useful and everything else just seems to be on the ground. His price is more mid-range than cheap tonight, but he faces the Phillies. The probably fired off all the offense they have for July last night against the LA bullpen. That’s another thing potentially in his favor tonight. Expect him to go deep after the Dodgers exhausted much of the bullpen last night.
Value Tier Two
Kevin Gausman (6t) has looked good in his two starts and though the Twins are a good home offense in a park that sneakily plays as a hitter’s park overall, they do struggle against RHP. A league average performance here gives you a ton of value at a very low price. I won’t call this a dumpster diving special because he’s costs a bit more than the minimum on the big two, but it’s close.
Corey Kluber (1) – He may allow a couple of runs and the ball may leave the yard and that’s why he finds himself in Tier Two at a very high cost, but he has by far the top projected strikeout and K-BB rates tonight. Despite what happened to Carrasco last night, he should pile up the Ks tonight.
Felix Doubront – This absolutely is a dumpster diving special for your GPP consideration. I have nothing positive to say about him, but any LHP at the minimum price against the White Sox and their 56 wRC+ (74 wRC+ at home too) is worthy of consideration.
Value Tier Three – Here is where they really start bunching together.
Taijuan Walker (6t) has turned into the dominant talent that he was expected to be by not only cutting down, but cutting out the walk rate while increasing strikeouts to an elite rate. The Tigers are red hot and not the best matchup tonight, which is why he’s down at tier three with a slightly high end price tag, but they are without Cabrera and the park should help him. He’s struck out at least six in each of his last seven starts.
Bartolo Colon – Umpire tendencies, which we may not get before game time, could move him up or down and that makes him more of a risk on early lock sites, but he throws strikes and is facing an ice cold and tired lineup due to a hectic travel schedule this week in a great park at a mid-range price.
Johnny Cueto (4) runs similar in cost to Francisco Liriano, just below the big two tonight, but has ace like talent, though he has just a 3.63 xFIP on the road since last year and has not much better than a neutral matchup here. With a career best 19.4 K-BB% though, he’d still make a fine addition and trustworthy option to any of your lineups.
Max Scherzer (2) sits here instead of higher due to an enormous price tag. You basically need him to strike out everybody to be a great value tonight and he could do that, but the Reds don’t strike out a ton and even less so over the last week (13.7%). It’s going to be difficult to afford him and I don’t even have him as the top projected strikeout rate tonight. He’s far behind Kluber, in the 2nd pack with Liriano, Walker, and Cueto, all of whom cost much less.
Francisco Liriano (5) represents a bit more risk than the elite options because he can start walking batters and then allow a bomb. He does have tremendous upside in a great spot tonight though and I’m less concerned about a diminished strikeout rate lately after looking at his still elite SwStr%. Cueto, at the same price, may provide more stability, but he might have more upside.
Tyson Ross (6t) is the last of the high priced pitchers we’re going to talk about today. He too carries some risk in his walk rate and a vulnerability to LHBs. He also has an elite ground ball rate and keeps the ball in the park, which should lead to a strong outing in a good park against an average offense tonight.
Value Tier Three A – These guys look slightly better than their price tag with their potential value not far separated from the guys above in my mind.
Kyle Gibson has increased his strikeout rate recently and has a chance for a few more at a very reasonable price against an offense that isn’t the same away from Baltimore and has been cold over the last week.
Sonny Gray (6t) – the range of outcomes is so wide here due to health (or really strength) concerns and a tough matchup on the road in a scary park, but I felt like he did need to be mentioned because I don’t think the A’s would throw him out there if he wasn’t ready. There may be some contrarian upside here, but I’d be concerned about how deep they let him go into this game even if pitching well.
Value Tier Four – I feel these guys are basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jose Quintana – It’s a decent price, but really tough spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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