Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, June 16th
There’s some very rare afternoon baseball on Tuesday due to the odd interleague schedule this week. The afternoon games will be covered in the charts, but the write ups will focus on the evening action, consisting of 10 games. Be forewarned though, those who continue must have a strong stomach. It gets a bit rough tonight.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may either alter or strengthen the information below.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Colome | TAM | 10.4 | 4.69 | 5.43 | 1.22 | 0.94 | 4.16 | 5.01 | WAS | 98 | 98 | 91 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 24.1% | 15.2% | 10.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -16 | 3.63 | 6.38 | 1.72 | 0.84 | 2.91 | 4.59 | OAK | 96 | 109 | 102 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 20.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 7.4 | 3.29 | 5.56 | 3.16 | 1.08 | 3.13 | 3.92 | TEX | 104 | 96 | 92 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 11.8% | 5.8% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -5.6 | 3.63 | 6. | 3.01 | 0.91 | 3.77 | 4.47 | CHW | 79 | 88 | 84 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 22.3% | 8.4% | 12.3% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.7 | 4.54 | 5.33 | 1.77 | 1.01 | 4.74 | 3.81 | HOU | 106 | 99 | 130 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 22.0% | 16.0% | 10.6% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 6.9 | 4.25 | 6.09 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 4.28 | 5.55 | PHI | 71 | 69 | 49 | 17.2% | 7.0% | 20.7% | 4.6% | 11.5% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 14.4 | 5.15 | 5.64 | 0.39 | 1.07 | 5.38 | 5.53 | MIL | 83 | 81 | 68 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 7.1 | 4.25 | 5.66 | 1.24 | 1.01 | 3.84 | 3.65 | NYY | 94 | 105 | 97 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 21.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.4 | 3.52 | 6.22 | 2.04 | 0.91 | 3.53 | 4.24 | ARI | 98 | 96 | 101 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 19.7% | 10.3% | 12.3% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | -5.2 | 4.03 | 5.72 | 1.04 | 0.87 | 4.41 | 3.77 | SFO | 96 | 102 | 86 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 22.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 1.8 | 3.14 | 6.17 | 1.64 | 1.05 | 2.83 | 2.05 | CLE | 95 | 107 | 98 | 22.9% | 6.3% | 22.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.3 | 4.23 | 5.14 | 1.07 | 0.91 | 3.72 | 4.25 | ANA | 106 | 96 | 101 | 19.4% | 7.5% | 20.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | -1.6 | 4.34 | 5.5 | 1.44 | 1.04 | 4.53 | 4.71 | BAL | 107 | 101 | 126 | 16.3% | 6.2% | 23.6% | 14.0% | 8.1% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -6.3 | 3.61 | 6.21 | 1.31 | 0.91 | 3.72 | 4.81 | PIT | 100 | 88 | 98 | 19.2% | 6.9% | 22.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.4 | 3.7 | 6.33 | 0.84 | 1.07 | 4.1 | 3.1 | BOS | 105 | 95 | 92 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 21.9% | 10.8% | 11.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.3 | 4.29 | 5.76 | 1.99 | 0.98 | 4.26 | 1.98 | STL | 110 | 104 | 111 | 19.5% | 7.5% | 18.4% | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 9.1 | 4.34 | 6.5 | 2.14 | 1.05 | 4.24 | 4.26 | CIN | 82 | 104 | 84 | 17.3% | 6.5% | 19.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -1.7 | 3.97 | 6.23 | 1.18 | 1.07 | 3.5 | 3.34 | KAN | 101 | 98 | 73 | 18.2% | 5.1% | 23.1% | 9.5% | 11.3% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | -0.7 | 2.73 | 6.71 | 1.34 | 0.88 | 2.89 | 3.59 | TOR | 105 | 109 | 122 | 22.1% | 5.8% | 20.1% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 1.9 | 5.24 | 5.6 | 1.35 | 1.05 | 5.2 | 4.17 | DET | 110 | 107 | 140 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 22.8% | 16.4% | 8.2% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 6.5 | 3.67 | 5.95 | 1.23 | 0.98 | 3.8 | 2.77 | MIN | 72 | 84 | 73 | 21.5% | 5.9% | 22.0% | 6.6% | 10.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -7.1 | 4.06 | 5.96 | 1.4 | 1.01 | 3.94 | 4.64 | FLA | 85 | 82 | 103 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 21.1% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
| Scott Copeland | TOR | 2.8 | 3.85 | 7. | 3.6 | 0.88 | 6.03 | 2.69 | NYM | 105 | 90 | 98 | 14.6% | 7.4% | 24.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | -9.3 | 3.54 | 5.83 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 3.71 | 4.11 | SDG | 90 | 95 | 80 | 22.7% | 7.3% | 21.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -3.8 | 3.91 | 6.33 | 1.23 | 0.94 | 4.03 | 3.57 | TAM | 110 | 94 | 104 | 19.3% | 5.7% | 20.4% | 10.6% | 10.1% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | -3.8 | 3.94 | 5.84 | 1.45 | 0.87 | 3.79 | 4.62 | SEA | 87 | 89 | 81 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 18.0% | 10.3% | 6.8% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -5 | 4 | 5.83 | 0.82 | 1.05 | 4.2 | 5.74 | CHC | 90 | 92 | 115 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 21.3% | 10.6% | 7.1% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | -6 | 5.38 | 5. | 0.5 | 1.01 | 5.38 | COL | 82 | 94 | 38 | ||||||
| Wade Miley | BOS | -3.6 | 3.89 | 6.03 | 1.75 | 1.07 | 3.55 | 3.27 | ATL | 89 | 72 | 109 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 21.2% | 14.2% | 10.1% |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | -0.8 | 5.62 | 7.07 | 1.7 | 1.08 | 5.78 | 5.28 | LOS | 108 | 123 | 105 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 18.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% |
Brett Anderson is one of our favorite ground ballers here. He had his worst outing since April last time out, but still only allowed four runs and hasn’t allowed more than that this year. He has just a 6.1 Hard-Soft% for the season and 67% of his batted balls have been on the ground. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but just enough to keep himself in play at a price that never seems to rise. He gets a park downgrade today, but Texas generally likes to run their LHBs out there against LHP and the GB rate goes up to 73.6% against same handed batters for Anderson. The Rangers do have a 15.5 Hard-Soft% vs LHP, despite just a 96 wRC+.
Charlie Morton is every bit the extreme ground baller that Anderson is, just with a bit less strikeout upside. He has allowed a total of eight fly balls over four starts and three were infield flies, while another was a HR. He has a strong matchup in a great park against a bad road team, but that’s probably why he costs a bit more than someone like Anderson with a similar skill set. The White Sox have a 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.
Garrett Richards is coming off his best start in nearly a month last time out. His strikeout rate is down a bit this season, but that’s not something we should worry about as we’ll see below. He has maintained some great contact management skills, with a negative Hard-Soft rate (-4.2%) for the 2nd season in a row. A 3.3 HR/FB at home since last year may not be completely sustainable, but his home park does strongly favor pitchers. The Diamondbacks represent a neutral matchup that improves with the park adjustment.
Jake Arrieta has seen his SwStr rate rise from a below average standpoint in April, but has consistently struck out at least five in every start this season, giving himself a great daily fantasy floor in that respect. His overall ERA estimators above, beat any pitcher on the board today over the last couple of years. He has an amazing 0.6 Hard-Soft% this season and a 4.6% rate over the last two calendar years with a 19.9 K-BB% and 6.3 HR/FB at home as a Cub. That said, he faces his second straight tough AL offense vs RHP and the Indians have struck out just 16.7% on the road. They do lose the DH tonight though and it remains to be seen how they’ll handle that (Carlos Santana at 1B?).
Jose Quintana struck out just three of 31 Astros in his last start and has five or fewer Ks in four of his last five despite an elite SwStr rate. He’s been fairly inconsistent overall over the last month, but gets a good matchup in a great park against a team that struggles vs LHP and has a 24.8 K% against them.
Matt Garza had four unearned runs charged against him in his last start, but hasn’t walked a batter in two starts and has been pitching a bit better recently. Kansas City has just a 16.7 K% vs RHP, but have just a 0.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week and adjust up to just a neutral matchup in a strong hitter’s park.
Matt Harvey thinks he has identified the mechanical issue that led to a beating in his last start. The Mets think it has to do with landing his foot too soon and also a little bit because he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery this year. Command has been the issue and that is usually the last thing to come back after TJS. See Adam Wainwright his first year back. He struggled to put the ball where he wanted for the first few months and allowed a lot of HRs. Then he was great. For Harvey, the stuff is still dominant. He was hitting 99 mph last start, but leaving 0-2 pitches over the plate when they would have been up and unhittable previously. He can’t put all his pitches where he wants to and that’s the issue. Maybe this foot thing will help, but sooner or later he’ll be great again. It’s just going to be a struggle for us daily fantasy players to figure out when that’s going to be. The matchup tonight is rough with the 4th best road offense and 2nd best vs RHP, but the park adjusts them down to neutral and he still has a 21.2 K-BB% at home this year. The problem with hanging pitches though (16.7 HR/FB at home) is that the Blue Jays are likely to hammer them (13.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 17.5 HR/FB over the last week). Harvey still projects for the top K-BB% tonight.
Scott Copeland gets his 2nd major league start. He pitched well against Miami in his first start, but has stranded 90% of his base runners through 10 innings and hasn’t allowed a HR yet. He has just a .242 BABIP, but a 28.1 LD% and 30.3 Hard%. He has kept the ball on the ground otherwise though (3.6 GB/FB). He only has four strikeouts, but does have a double digit SwStr%, though as a 27 year old rookie, has no real prospect status. He’s a guy pitching in the major leagues because the Blue Jays have run out of major league pitchers. The Mets are decent at home, but not against RHP and represent a solid park adjusted matchup.
Tanner Roark has allowed nine ERs over 12.1 IP over his last two starts, but has 10 strikeouts and just one walk. The issue is definitely HRs. He’s allowed seven in four starts, while last year he allowed 16 in 31. He gets an upgrade in park tonight. The Rays are a good home hitting team with a league average 10.0 HR/FB in a tough park for power, but just an 8.6 HR/FB vs RHP. Roark does have just a 4.0 Hard-Soft%, so he’s not otherwise allowing a ton of hard contact when it stays in the park.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Chris Young (_.196 BABIP – 80.7 LOB% – 4.6 HR/FB) – He has a history of beating his estimators by a significant margin, but not like this and has already seen some adjustment in two of his last three starts.
Kyle Ryan (.244 BABIP – 82.2 LOB% – 6.7 HR/FB) – In just 13 innings he has five walks and a 23.8 Hard-Soft%.
Michael Lorenzen (.235 BABIP – 83.0 LOB% – 20.0 HR/FB) – He has just a 2.2 K-BB% and a 4.01 ERA. He’s the top guy to stack against tonight.
Alex Chi Chi Gonzalez (.197 BABIP – 95.8 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB) – With apologies to Lorenzen, I was wrong. This is the pitcher you want to stack again. I originally had the wrong Texas pitcher listed.
NO THANK YOU
Chris Tillman – Confirming that there is not a single team I would pay above minimum price for him against.
Trevor Bauer – He potentially has the top strikeout rate tonight against the Cubs, but has walked nine of his last 48 batters and allowed a HR in each of his last four starts. His downside is as big of a risk as his upside. He could be ok for a GPP lineup or two if you’re making 10 of them though.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Colome | Rays | 14.8% | 8.7% | Home | 16.0% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 10.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.4% | 6.3% | Home | 24.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 18.1% | 10.8% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 17.6% | 7.0% | Road | 19.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 7.6% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 17.6% | 8.0% | Home | 17.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 13.4% | 8.5% | Road | 10.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 6.7% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 18.4% | 8.4% | Home | 17.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 16.1% | 8.5% | Road | 13.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 10.6% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 17.1% | 7.9% | Home | 20.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 1.9% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 21.1% | 8.1% | Home | 21.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 9.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 19.3% | 7.6% | Road | 16.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 7.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 25.0% | 7.0% | Home | 26.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 2.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 18.0% | 7.8% | Road | 19.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 10.9% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 14.6% | 7.1% | Road | 12.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 2.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.1% | 6.6% | Road | 19.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 11.7% | 6.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.6% | 6.6% | Road | 19.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 13.9% | 7.7% | Road | 14.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 3.9% |
| Kyle Ryan | Tigers | 10.6% | 7.5% | Home | 15.4% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | 19.0% | 7.2% | Home | 20.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 26.9% | 3.9% | Home | 24.2% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 15.9% | 13.7% | Road | 16.0% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 12.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.2% | 6.9% | Home | 19.3% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.7% | 6.3% | Road | 15.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 9.1% |
| Scott Copeland | Blue Jays | 10.3% | 5.1% | Road | 0.0% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Athletics | 22.5% | 7.0% | Road | 21.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 6.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 16.8% | 5.0% | Road | 16.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 1.9% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 20.7% | 9.3% | Home | 20.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 22.2% | 9.7% | Road | 23.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 25.0% | 20.0% | Home | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | ||
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 19.0% | 8.2% | Home | 20.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 2.1% |
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 9.4% | 11.8% | Home | 8.3% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 8.2% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 20.5% | 8.5% | RH | 20.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.6% | 8.2% | RH | 17.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.7% | 8.7% | LH | 22.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.5% | 5.5% | RH | 19.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.2% |
| Astros | Home | 25.6% | 9.5% | LH | 23.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.0% | 5.6% | RH | 19.5% | 5.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 4.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 22.8% | 6.9% | RH | 21.9% | 6.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.1% | 8.1% | RH | 19.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.6% | 7.2% | RH | 19.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.0% |
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 7.5% | LH | 20.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 14.0% | 6.0% |
| Indians | Road | 16.7% | 8.4% | RH | 18.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.0% |
| Angels | Home | 19.8% | 7.5% | RH | 19.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.6% | 5.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.5% | 6.4% | RH | 22.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.9% | 6.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.6% | 6.9% | LH | 24.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 8.3% | RH | 16.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.3% | 8.9% | RH | 19.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 7.9% | LH | 21.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.3% |
| Royals | Road | 17.0% | 5.4% | RH | 16.7% | 5.6% | L7Days | 17.2% | 5.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.5% | 7.5% | RH | 19.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.3% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.2% | 7.7% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.5% | 5.5% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 7.0% | RH | 21.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.3% | 6.7% | RH | 20.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.1% |
| Mets | Home | 19.3% | 8.6% | RH | 20.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.7% |
| Padres | Home | 23.4% | 6.2% | LH | 23.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.2% |
| Rays | Home | 22.1% | 7.7% | RH | 21.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.2% | 7.4% | RH | 23.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.8% | 9.4% | RH | 25.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.8% | 5.1% | RH | 19.9% | 5.5% | L7Days | 27.1% | 5.4% |
| Braves | Road | 18.1% | 7.3% | LH | 22.3% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.8% | 10.5% | RH | 19.8% | 9.9% | L7Days | 18.3% | 11.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Colome | Rays | 25.8% | 12.6% | 11.5% | Home | 21.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 20.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | Home | 18.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 15.3% | 11.3% | 5.0% | Road | 13.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 20.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | Home | 20.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 23.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | Road | 25.0% | 10.7% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 20.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | Home | 20.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Chris Young | Royals | 18.7% | 7.8% | 14.3% | Road | 19.5% | 11.5% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 24.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | Home | 23.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 18.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | Home | 20.9% | 3.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 20.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | Road | 22.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 22.7% | 9.0% | 12.1% | Home | 19.5% | 6.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 20.5% | 11.2% | 6.7% | Road | 22.7% | 11.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 23.1% | 30.8% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 23.0% | 13.6% | 6.6% | Road | 23.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.7% | 6.8% | 9.8% | Road | 22.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.3% | 9.8% | 11.8% | Road | 24.5% | 11.5% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 19.6% | 10.4% | 10.8% | Road | 15.9% | 10.7% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Ryan | Tigers | 14.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | Home | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | 22.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | Home | 23.2% | 11.5% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 20.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | Home | 25.9% | 16.7% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 35.7% | 21.4% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 25.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% | Road | 26.0% | 18.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.3% | 6.5% | 10.4% | Home | 20.8% | 6.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | Road | 24.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Scott Copeland | Blue Jays | 28.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Athletics | 20.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | Road | 21.0% | 11.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 20.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | Road | 20.6% | 9.3% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| Tim Lincecum | Giants | 21.5% | 11.9% | 7.5% | Home | 22.3% | 9.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 21.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | Road | 21.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Astros | 18.2% | 0.0% | 16.7% | Home | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 16.7% | |||
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.8% | 12.4% | 5.6% | Home | 18.9% | 15.6% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 36.4% | 18.2% |
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 16.9% | 0.0% | 5.0% | Home | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 21.1% | 12.8% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 13.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.6% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.5% | 10.6% | 8.9% | RH | 21.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.9% | 11.4% | 8.5% | LH | 21.1% | 11.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 8.6% | 4.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.4% | 7.6% | 11.7% | RH | 21.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Astros | Home | 18.1% | 19.1% | 10.9% | LH | 19.9% | 13.5% | 10.5% | L7Days | 21.7% | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.4% | 4.3% | 10.4% | RH | 22.5% | 6.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 18.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.0% | 11.0% | 8.3% | RH | 20.8% | 9.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.7% | 15.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.0% | 10.5% | 8.7% | RH | 21.8% | 13.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 27.8% | 10.0% | 4.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.5% | 10.5% | 9.8% | RH | 21.0% | 11.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.3% | 14.8% |
| Giants | Home | 19.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | LH | 22.5% | 7.8% | 2.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 13.0% | 4.3% |
| Indians | Road | 20.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | RH | 21.0% | 10.5% | 12.4% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Angels | Home | 22.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | RH | 20.4% | 11.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.3% | 13.9% | 7.7% | RH | 21.2% | 12.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.1% | 13.8% | 6.2% |
| Pirates | Home | 22.0% | 11.2% | 5.4% | LH | 25.4% | 12.0% | 5.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | RH | 20.1% | 10.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | RH | 22.8% | 8.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Reds | Road | 20.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | LH | 24.0% | 13.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.0% | 13.5% | 5.4% |
| Royals | Road | 24.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | RH | 22.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 17.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.1% | 11.2% | 13.7% | RH | 19.3% | 13.5% | 13.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | RH | 22.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 27.1% | 12.5% | 10.4% |
| Twins | Road | 19.0% | 6.7% | 12.6% | RH | 20.1% | 8.2% | 12.6% | L7Days | 13.9% | 4.6% | 9.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | RH | 21.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 19.2% | 3.8% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 10.4% | 12.7% | RH | 23.4% | 8.7% | 12.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.0% | 11.7% |
| Padres | Home | 19.5% | 10.6% | 6.8% | LH | 21.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% |
| Rays | Home | 21.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | RH | 21.6% | 8.6% | 10.7% | L7Days | 18.0% | 4.1% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.7% | 11.6% | 7.5% | RH | 19.9% | 10.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% | RH | 20.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 11.1% | 3.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.4% | 13.7% | 8.1% | RH | 21.0% | 14.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.1% |
| Braves | Road | 23.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | LH | 20.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 6.7% | 11.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.8% | 15.7% | 7.9% | RH | 21.5% | 16.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Colome | TAM | 16.5% | 8.3% | 1.99 | 12.8% | 7.2% | 1.78 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 21.6% | 9.2% | 2.35 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 2.55 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 16.7% | 7.0% | 2.39 | 17.3% | 6.7% | 2.58 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 11.7% | 6.2% | 1.89 | 11.7% | 6.2% | 1.89 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 14.8% | 8.8% | 1.68 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 1.68 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 16.0% | 7.7% | 2.08 | 16.4% | 9.5% | 1.73 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 17.7% | 9.4% | 1.88 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 2.24 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 16.0% | 4.4% | 3.64 | 14.3% | 3.8% | 3.76 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 19.8% | 11.0% | 1.80 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 1.50 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 18.2% | 7.3% | 2.49 | 16.5% | 7.1% | 2.32 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 27.0% | 10.1% | 2.67 | 27.1% | 11.4% | 2.38 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 16.7% | 9.4% | 1.78 | 18.0% | 9.0% | 2.00 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 12.9% | 8.6% | 1.50 | 11.5% | 8.7% | 1.32 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 19.6% | 10.1% | 1.94 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 1.31 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.9% | 10.2% | 1.85 | 17.6% | 9.8% | 1.80 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 14.4% | 8.5% | 1.69 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 2.38 |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 11.3% | 8.7% | 1.30 | 11.3% | 8.7% | 1.30 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 16.9% | 8.3% | 2.04 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 1.99 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 25.9% | 12.5% | 2.07 | 25.9% | 12.5% | 2.07 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 15.9% | 8.3% | 1.92 | 18.2% | 6.1% | 2.98 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 17.9% | 9.5% | 1.88 | 22.8% | 11.9% | 1.92 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.2% | 7.9% | 2.05 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 1.80 |
| Scott Copeland | TOR | 10.3% | 7.5% | 1.37 | 14.8% | 10.9% | 1.36 |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | 22.7% | 11.2% | 2.03 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 1.86 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 11.7% | 6.8% | 1.72 | 14.3% | 6.6% | 2.17 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 19.0% | 11.3% | 1.68 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 1.59 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 24.3% | 9.8% | 2.48 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.72 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 25.0% | 6.7% | 3.73 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 3.73 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 14.7% | 7.1% | 2.07 | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.20 |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 9.4% | 6.5% | 1.45 | 9.4% | 6.5% | 1.45 |
Garrett Richards has a SwStr slightly higher than last year’s 10.8% and has been in double digits in six of his last eight starts. I have little concern over his below average K% and see a lot of upside here.
Jose Quintana has seen a 1.9 point drop in his K%, in line with his 19.7 K% of 2013, but has the highest SwStr% of his career. In fact, his SwStr% has never been above 8.9 before. In addition, his SwStr has been at least 9.9% in each of his last four starts. His recent dip in K% is a fluke.
Tanner Roark has seen his SwStr rate drop from 8.6% last year to 6.8% this season. That’s not good and we should expect a drop in his K%, but going from 17.3% to 11.7% is too significant. His 14.3 K% as a starter over the last month seems more apt. Roark is the only one of these three guys in a neutral or even negative catcher framing situation though.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Colome | TAM | 4.21 | 4.18 | -0.03 | 3.92 | -0.29 | 4.81 | 0.6 | 3.48 | 4.91 | 1.43 | 4.61 | 1.13 | 4.94 | 1.46 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.16 | 3.63 | -0.53 | 3.59 | -0.57 | 4.15 | -0.01 | 5.5 | 4.09 | -1.41 | 3.88 | -1.62 | 3.96 | -1.54 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.57 | 3.28 | -0.29 | 3.44 | -0.13 | 3.71 | 0.14 | 3.66 | 3.54 | -0.12 | 3.62 | -0.04 | 4.01 | 0.35 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 2.05 | 3.18 | 1.13 | 3.41 | 1.36 | 3.48 | 1.43 | 2.05 | 3.18 | 1.13 | 3.41 | 1.36 | 3.48 | 1.43 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 3.38 | 4.17 | 0.79 | 3.88 | 0.5 | 3.98 | 0.6 | 3.38 | 4.17 | 0.79 | 3.88 | 0.5 | 3.98 | 0.6 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 5.68 | 5.01 | -0.67 | 4.99 | -0.69 | 4.7 | -0.98 | 4.73 | 5.03 | 0.3 | 4.93 | 0.2 | 3.74 | -0.99 |
| Chris Young | KAN | 2.25 | 4.85 | 2.6 | 4.97 | 2.72 | 3.64 | 1.39 | 3.86 | 5.35 | 1.49 | 5.37 | 1.51 | 4.65 | 0.79 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 4.11 | 4.21 | 0.1 | 4.06 | -0.05 | 3.59 | -0.52 | 5.97 | 4.21 | -1.76 | 4.19 | -1.78 | 4.95 | -1.02 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.97 | 4.1 | 0.13 | 4.18 | 0.21 | 3.99 | 0.02 | 5.56 | 4.02 | -1.54 | 4.07 | -1.49 | 4.54 | -1.02 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 3.72 | 3.98 | 0.26 | 3.86 | 0.14 | 3.47 | -0.25 | 5.24 | 4.4 | -0.84 | 4.53 | -0.71 | 3.82 | -1.42 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.16 | 2.7 | -0.46 | 2.6 | -0.56 | 2.79 | -0.37 | 3.38 | 2.53 | -0.85 | 2.48 | -0.9 | 3.51 | 0.13 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 5.29 | 4.35 | -0.94 | 4.26 | -1.03 | 4.87 | -0.42 | 4.45 | 4.04 | -0.41 | 3.95 | -0.5 | 5.22 | 0.77 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 5.71 | 4.56 | -1.15 | 4.47 | -1.24 | 5.27 | -0.44 | 6.32 | 4.63 | -1.69 | 4.63 | -1.69 | 5.98 | -0.34 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 4 | 3.88 | -0.12 | 3.85 | -0.15 | 3.23 | -0.77 | 3.51 | 4.46 | 0.95 | 4.28 | 0.77 | 3.37 | -0.14 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.78 | 4.27 | -0.51 | 4.22 | -0.56 | 5.08 | 0.3 | 5.4 | 4.45 | -0.95 | 4.35 | -1.05 | 4.49 | -0.91 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.24 | 4.24 | 1 | 4.13 | 0.89 | 4.54 | 1.3 | 3.98 | 3.18 | -0.8 | 3.2 | -0.78 | 4.65 | 0.67 |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 2.08 | 5.12 | 3.04 | 4.94 | 2.86 | 4.33 | 2.25 | 2.08 | 5.13 | 3.05 | 4.94 | 2.86 | 4.33 | 2.25 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.8 | 4.36 | -0.44 | 4.13 | -0.67 | 4.72 | -0.08 | 5.79 | 4.3 | -1.49 | 4.07 | -1.72 | 4.21 | -1.58 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 3.62 | 2.98 | -0.64 | 3.05 | -0.57 | 3.64 | 0.02 | 5.45 | 3.06 | -2.39 | 2.97 | -2.48 | 4.77 | -0.68 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 4.01 | 5.24 | 1.23 | 4.95 | 0.94 | 6.08 | 2.07 | 4.01 | 5.19 | 1.18 | 4.83 | 0.82 | 5.7 | 1.69 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.45 | 3.9 | 1.45 | 3.78 | 1.33 | 3.45 | 1 | 2.97 | 3.5 | 0.53 | 3.52 | 0.55 | 3.22 | 0.25 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.13 | 4.02 | -0.11 | 3.87 | -0.26 | 4.07 | -0.06 | 4.13 | 4.1 | -0.03 | 4.04 | -0.09 | 4.09 | -0.04 |
| Scott Copeland | TOR | 0.9 | 3.85 | 2.95 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2 | 1.29 | 2.69 | 1.4 | 2.56 | 1.27 | 1.96 | 0.67 |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | 2.79 | 3.88 | 1.09 | 3.8 | 1.01 | 3.58 | 0.79 | 2.81 | 4.11 | 1.3 | 3.83 | 1.02 | 3.14 | 0.33 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.71 | 4.45 | 0.74 | 4.48 | 0.77 | 5.51 | 1.8 | 4.44 | 4.24 | -0.2 | 4.28 | -0.16 | 6.48 | 2.04 |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 3.33 | 4.47 | 1.14 | 4.37 | 1.04 | 4.08 | 0.75 | 4.67 | 4.55 | -0.12 | 4.72 | 0.05 | 5.21 | 0.54 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.53 | 4 | 0.47 | 4.17 | 0.64 | 3.73 | 0.2 | 3.34 | 4.21 | 0.87 | 4.43 | 1.09 | 4.19 | 0.85 |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 0 | 5.38 | 5.38 | 5.17 | 5.17 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 5.38 | 5.38 | 5.18 | 5.18 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 5.07 | 4.53 | -0.54 | 4.5 | -0.57 | 4.22 | -0.85 | 4.45 | 3.97 | -0.48 | 3.94 | -0.51 | 4.09 | -0.36 |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0.42 | 5.61 | 5.19 | 5.17 | 4.75 | 3.89 | 3.47 | 0.42 | 5.62 | 5.2 | 5.17 | 4.75 | 3.89 | 3.47 |
Charlie Morton has just a .241 BABIP that’s nearly 70 points below his career average. He doesn’t miss any bats in the strike zone and three of his 8 fly balls have been pop ups. Further in support of his low BABIP though is that in addition to a 69.0 GB%, he has a -6.2 Hard-Soft% through four starts. That’s not to say he can sustain something like this, but a 7.25 GB/FB and 27.4 Soft% is some amazing contact management.
Garrett Richards has a bit of an issue with walks (9.7 BB%) and has just a 10.1 K-BB%, but I believe his K% is set to increase, which would lower his ERA estimators. He has a good defense and generates a lot of weak contact, so there’s not much problem with a .262 BABIP, but over the last month he’s had a 14.3 HR/FB and 61.9 LOB%. He may not again reach the heights he ascended to last year, but seems to have a knack for generating weak contact and profiles just fine if he can get his walks under control.
Matt Garza has actually seen his estimators slightly improve over the last month, but his ERA diminish due to a 55.3 LOB%.
Matt Harvey – As mentioned, he has a 25.0 HR/FB over the last month and 32.3 Hard%. If he puts his pitches where he wants to though, they still can’t hit him. His K-BB% is 20.7 over that period.
Tanner Roark hasn’t suffered the overall consequences from a 17.3 HR/FB due to a .257 BABIP and 87.3 LOB%. If there’s no HR, you don’t score. He had just a .270 BABIP last season and does generate a lot of weak contact in the air. The Washington defense has been atrocious, but even they can catch pop ups and soft fly balls I guess. He has just a 17.7 LD%. His BABIP should rise, hopefully as his HR/FB falls. He hasn’t pitched as well as last season though when he beat better estimators.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Colome | TAM | 0.279 | 0.310 | 0.031 | 13.3% | 89.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.312 | 0.338 | 0.026 | 8.8% | 87.6% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.295 | 0.321 | 0.026 | 2.3% | 92.0% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.296 | 0.241 | -0.055 | 37.5% | 96.0% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.305 | 0.296 | -0.009 | 5.9% | 83.8% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.285 | 0.317 | 0.032 | 16.5% | 88.4% |
| Chris Young | KAN | 0.270 | 0.196 | -0.074 | 14.9% | 86.1% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.292 | 0.297 | 0.005 | 11.6% | 92.1% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.273 | 0.262 | -0.011 | 10.8% | 86.6% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 0.286 | 0.318 | 0.032 | 14.7% | 89.1% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.296 | 0.320 | 0.024 | 10.9% | 87.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.295 | 0.300 | 0.005 | 8.1% | 87.9% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 0.305 | 0.340 | 0.035 | 8.5% | 90.5% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.326 | 0.332 | 0.006 | 7.0% | 87.0% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.294 | 0.299 | 0.005 | 14.7% | 86.9% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.299 | 0.264 | -0.035 | 6.5% | 91.6% |
| Kyle Ryan | DET | 0.281 | 0.244 | -0.037 | 0.0% | 84.1% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.305 | 0.289 | -0.016 | 11.3% | 89.8% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.293 | 0.277 | -0.016 | 12.8% | 83.0% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.283 | 0.235 | -0.048 | 5.0% | 83.7% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.292 | 0.252 | -0.04 | 14.9% | 84.9% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.303 | 0.349 | 0.046 | 4.6% | 88.7% |
| Scott Copeland | TOR | 0.278 | 0.242 | -0.036 | 0.0% | 92.5% |
| Scott Kazmir | OAK | 0.283 | 0.266 | -0.017 | 1.5% | 84.2% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.322 | 0.257 | -0.065 | 9.6% | 90.2% |
| Tim Lincecum | SFO | 0.287 | 0.275 | -0.012 | 7.1% | 84.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.318 | 0.266 | -0.052 | 12.4% | 88.4% |
| Vincent Velasquez | HOU | 0.280 | 0.273 | -0.007 | 16.7% | 91.7% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.299 | 0.304 | 0.005 | 8.9% | 90.9% |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0.288 | 0.197 | -0.091 | 5.0% | 90.7% |
Any issues worth mentioning have been already been covered just above.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
NOTE – Tonight is rough. There are a few guys that stand above the rest, not because they look so good comparative to their price, but because everyone else looks so bad. Guys that appear as top values tonight would have been secondary plays yesterday for the most part.
Brett Anderson – The price tag never seems to change. He’s not an Ace or even close, but he’s better than what the daily fantasy sites are giving him credit for. He gets a downgrade in park and league, but all he does is generate ground balls, which are hard to hit out of any park and the Rangers lean heavily left handed through the middle of the order.
Charlie Morton generates tons of ground balls and has a great matchup in a great park, but costs more than Anderson and might have less upside. He doesn’t miss bats and is tough to stomach paying much for, but he should be at least ok here.
Garrett Richards has a plus matchup with the park adjustment and has continued to do a great job with contact authority, but hasn’t been as good overall and is priced strongly. The good news is that his SwStr rate projects a better future K rate, but on a stronger day I might even omit him from being mentioned here. He seems to be priced accurately. There’s just not a lot of excess value likely to be had tonight.
Jake Arrieta was the clear #4 guy before last night’s rainout. He’s a very good pitcher that was in the worst spot of the top four guys last night. Tonight, his consistent floor means even more. Harvey has more upside, but this might be the guy you have to lean on in double ups. Arrieta is my #2 overall and potentially the top value out there tonight.
Matt Garza – Yup, this is where we’re at tonight. He’s striking out fewer batters and Kansas City will pull any strikeout rate expectation down, but the overall matchup is fine. The Royals have just a 0.7 Hard-Soft% over the last week and he’s not very expensive.
Matt Harvey might be a secondary play for upside in GPPs and potentially too risky for double ups on any other day. Tonight, I think you still have to consider him because the rest of the field looks so weak. Everyone is either flawed, has a bad matchup, or both. You worry about the HR rate and the power in the Toronto lineup, but they lean heavily right handed and the good news is that RHBs have just a .267 wOBA against Harvey this year, so he’s still dominating them consistently. There’s not really a left handed bat that scares you here outside Reyes and even he’s more speed than power.
Tanner Roark is another deeply flawed pitcher who gets consideration tonight due to a great park and low price. His biggest issue this year has been HRs and he gets an upgrade in park there, facing a team that has below average power vs RHP.
Trevor Bauer – I know I left him in the No Thank You section and will not be using him in any games where I need reliability because he might be the least reliable pitcher on the slate tonight, but he also potentially rates up there with Harvey and Arrieta with regards to strikeouts tonight. A few walks and a dinger is more of an expectation than a threat tonight though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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