Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, September 15th
On Tuesday night, baseball has the DFS stage all to itself again. We welcome aboard all of those who are looking to double up on their NFL Week 1 winnings or make up their losses along with regular DFS baseball players as well of course.
For those new to this column or DFS baseball in general, what we try to do here is use advanced stats to come to conclusions that casual fans may not when they look at things like Wins or even ERA, which don’t always paint the correct picture.
Sometimes we just enforce the obvious conclusion, but occasionally we discover some interesting things and find ourselves off the beaten path, which can be a good thing.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | -6.2 | 4.4 | 4.14 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 6.33 | 5.42 | CHW | 85 | 93 | 108 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 25.2% | 13.8% | 9.1% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | -5.6 | 3.6 | 5.81 | 1.35 | 0.94 | 4.12 | 3.19 | TAM | 98 | 94 | 95 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 21.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 2.4 | 4.5 | 6.04 | 1.37 | 1.05 | 4.62 | 5.12 | MIN | 104 | 88 | 109 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 20.4% | 11.4% | 12.6% |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | -5.1 | 5.35 | 5. | 0.8 | 1.07 | 5.35 | STL | 92 | 100 | 94 | ||||||
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.9 | 3.51 | 5.75 | 3.35 | 0.89 | 3.91 | 4.61 | COL | 77 | 62 | 35 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 17.2% | 13.0% | 10.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -0.8 | 3.42 | 5.82 | 2.07 | 1.07 | 3.3 | 3.41 | MIL | 90 | 91 | 86 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 24.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 4.5 | 4.03 | 5.83 | 2.18 | 0.87 | 3.73 | 3.86 | CIN | 85 | 90 | 92 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 21.0% | 16.0% | 6.4% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | -4.3 | 4.25 | 5.5 | 1.82 | 0.89 | 4.49 | 4.23 | LOS | 114 | 110 | 113 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 22.5% | 17.1% | 11.3% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 1.6 | 3.62 | 6.2 | 1.28 | 1.08 | 3.61 | 3.65 | TEX | 101 | 96 | 98 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 18.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | -4.8 | 4.63 | 5.48 | 1.61 | 1.01 | 4.68 | 6.99 | WAS | 94 | 97 | 93 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 22.0% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 5 | 3.68 | 6.27 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 3.5 | 4.25 | HOU | 93 | 102 | 105 | 19.7% | 5.8% | 17.5% | 10.3% | 7.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -3.9 | 2.83 | 6.7 | 2.15 | 0.85 | 2.91 | 2.73 | ANA | 88 | 98 | 72 | 23.0% | 6.3% | 17.5% | 11.0% | 6.1% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -2.1 | 3.97 | 5.72 | 1.08 | 0.91 | 3.79 | 1.55 | CHC | 94 | 87 | 109 | 25.6% | 6.4% | 20.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.6 | 3.13 | 6.45 | 1.34 | 0.88 | 2.66 | 3.15 | FLA | 87 | 80 | 80 | 22.2% | 6.1% | 20.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 6.2 | 3.69 | 5.69 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 3.68 | 3.21 | NYY | 105 | 102 | 74 | 22.4% | 7.3% | 21.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -6.3 | 3.58 | 6.66 | 1.32 | 1.08 | 3.53 | 5.12 | OAK | 90 | 95 | 74 | 19.7% | 7.4% | 19.7% | 12.4% | 9.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 2.3 | 4.74 | 5.64 | 1.36 | 1.09 | 4.25 | SDG | 81 | 91 | 85 | ||||||
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -1 | 4.29 | 5.58 | 1.84 | 1.04 | 4.22 | 4.1 | BAL | 109 | 103 | 149 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 23.4% | 14.0% | 8.3% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 1.9 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 0.72 | 0.87 | 2.61 | 5.43 | SFO | 113 | 102 | 135 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.6% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.3 | 3.2 | 6.57 | 1.39 | 0.91 | 3.21 | 3.76 | PIT | 105 | 99 | 117 | 21.8% | 7.3% | 20.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 2.1 | 3.24 | 6.1 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 3.14 | 3.72 | KAN | 93 | 103 | 102 | 19.0% | 4.4% | 21.9% | 13.3% | 11.9% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -0.7 | 3.88 | 6.36 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 3.71 | 5.22 | TOR | 106 | 112 | 123 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 20.5% | 12.6% | 10.8% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 7.7 | 3.52 | 6.46 | 1.87 | 0.94 | 4.19 | 4.16 | CLE | 111 | 100 | 142 | 18.1% | 8.8% | 20.4% | 12.9% | 6.6% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | -1.7 | 4.44 | 6.29 | 1.38 | 0.98 | 4.17 | 5.41 | ATL | 87 | 78 | 97 | 13.4% | 5.4% | 24.4% | 6.6% | 14.3% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 2.4 | 4.48 | 5.26 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 5.12 | 3.73 | SEA | 105 | 99 | 115 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 20.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 2.8 | 3.71 | 6.3 | 0.88 | 1.05 | 3.75 | DET | 103 | 101 | 101 | ||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -4.4 | 2.84 | 5.93 | 1.36 | 1.01 | 2.88 | 1.63 | PHI | 88 | 85 | 85 | 27.3% | 5.8% | 21.8% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 2.6 | 4.36 | 6. | 1.15 | 0.88 | 4.65 | 4.02 | NYM | 102 | 98 | 132 | 19.5% | 9.9% | 19.3% | 9.4% | 10.1% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -6.9 | 3.27 | 6.16 | 2.88 | 1.09 | 3.4 | 3.62 | ARI | 96 | 95 | 98 | 22.1% | 7.9% | 18.8% | 12.7% | 10.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.5 | 4.01 | 5.71 | 1.42 | 1.04 | 3.93 | 4 | BOS | 85 | 98 | 101 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 21.0% | 11.9% | 7.8% |
Adam Warren hasn’t started a game since June, but has pitched several multiple inning outings recently and should be able throw five innings or so. He’s been pretty much average in most aspects, with a K% a bit below, but has managed contact well (4.5 Hard-Soft%). The Rays will strike out slightly more than the average team and are a favorable matchup at home vs RHP after a park adjustment.
Brett Anderson doesn’t strike out many batters and doesn’t often go very deep into games, but what he does do on a consistent basis is generate weak ground balls (66.7 GB% leads the majors, 0.0 Hard-Soft%). A 16.0 HR/FB isn’t even much of a concern because he’s allowed fewer than 100 fly balls this season. The Rockies are and incredibly favorable opponent with an 18.1 K-BB% on the road, a 23.2 K% vs LHP, and 25.7 K% over the last week. They are the worst road offense, worst against LHP, and coldest offense in baseball over the last week. This is by far the best park adjusted matchup in baseball tonight.
Carlos Martinez was hit hard in his last start (41.2 LD%), but also struck out eight of 26 Cubs in his last start. His SwStr rate has actually increased over the last month, while he maintains an above average 15.9 K-BB% and strong contact management skills (5.8 Hard-Soft%). Milwaukee is a below average offense at home and vs RHP with a 26.6 K% over the last week. They are a near neutral matchup with an upward bump for park effects.
Chris Heston has seen a real decline of skills over the last few months with a significant drop in his K%, allowing eight of his 14 HRs over his last six starts, but four of those were on the road in extreme hitters parks. That’s not to make excuses or suggest he’s been much better than his estimators, but pitching in San Francisco gives him an advantage. The Reds are a very poor offense on the road and below average vs RHP, making them a great park adjusted matchup here.
Collin McHugh has, in the 2nd half, looked much like he did in 2014. A 23.1 K% over the last month has helped pull his season rate just about up to league average while generating a ton of weak contact this season (3.3 Hard-Soft%). He has an above average, but not great 14.9 K-BB% on the road since last season with a normal HR rate. The Rangers are an average offense at home vs RHP that gets a bump to a slightly unfavorable park adjusted matchup.
Felix Hernandez did walk four in his last start, but has gone exactly eight innings with three runs or less and at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three. He’s absolutely having a sub-standard year, but he’s not having a bad one (16.9 K-BB%). The Angels strike out a bit less than average, but are a poor road offense and a great overall park adjusted matchup here.
J.A. Happ has absolutely not been anywhere close to as good as his nearly immaculate ERA in Pittsburgh, but he hasn’t been bad either. His 22.0 K-BB in seven starts since the trade in among the elite, but we might have to take issue with his SwStr% below. We’re still looking at a guy pitching better than he ever has in his life though. The Cubs have a 24.7 K% on the road and are well below average vs LHP (26.0 K%). They are a very favorable DFS opponent with the downward park adjustment.
Jacob deGrom has a 22.1 K-BB% and 4.4 HR/FB at home in his young career with a 21.4 K-BB% and solid 6.4 Hard-Soft% overall this season. He faces a very poor road offense and the worst vs RHP. The Marlins have just a 4.7 HR/FB and -2.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. They are a great park adjusted matchup tonight.
Jake Odorizzi has an above average 15.9 K-BB% this season with a 26.9 K% over the last month and 18.1 K-BB% at home since last season. His overall results have been a bit inconsistent lately, but he has just a 3.9 HR/FB at home since 2014, though he’s allowed a HR in three of his last four home starts. It’s a pitcher’s park, but that might be a bit too low to sustain. The Yankees roughed him up in NY not too long ago (three HRs), but it could be a different story in the dome. They aren’t a favorable opponent on the road or vs RHP, but haven’t been a strong offense over the last week and are a favorable matchup after a negative park adjustment.
Jeff Samardzija has not been good at all this season or over the last month, but does have an above average K% over the last month. He faces an opponent that strikes out less than average, but does not hit for much power and has just a 5.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. Even with the upward park bump, they’re a slightly favorable opponent.
John Lamb walked six his last time out, but has a 17.9 K-BB% through six starts with a -2.1 Hard-Soft% despite a 25.6 LD%. Part of that is because he’s generated seven pop ups already. San Francisco is a great park for a fly ball pitcher. The Giants are a great home team, but with just a 7.8 HR/FB and are better vs RHP than LHP. They park adjust down to neutral in this spot.
Jon Lester has had two great starts, two poor ones, and one mediocre one over the last month, but his 18.5 K-BB% is just slightly below last season with a similar mark on the road since last season. Pittsburgh is a great park for a LHP (kills RH power), turning an average Pittsburgh offense into a slightly favorable matchup after a downward adjustment. They have a 15.0 K-BB% vs LHP.
Josh Tomlin has allowed a lot of hard contact (18.7 Hard-Soft%) in six starts, but also has a 22.9 K-BB% that’s greatly limited the damage. That’s how you can allow 10 HRs in 41 innings and still have a reasonable ERA (though with a .167 BABIP that we’ll talk more about later). Even if that regresses, we’d expect his HR rate too though and his non-FIP estimators way below are still very good. Kansas City has a very low strikeout rate (but Carrasco did fine last night), though they don’t walk much either and are a below average road offense (8.9 HR/FB). They are a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup here.
Kris Medlen seems be pitching better than his ERA indicates, though he has just an average 11.7 K-BB% and has allowed a single HR in each of his four starts. He’s also otherwise kept the ball on the ground with a 1.9 GB/FB though. Cleveland is a tough home offense, though more through plate discipline than power and one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week. They represent an unfavorable matchup even after a pitcher’s park adjustment.
Stephen Strasburg has oddly been just about the only thing working for the Nationals on the mound (when healthy). He struck out a season high 13 Mets last time out with one of the nastiest curveballs I’ve ever seen. He has a 21.3 K-BB% on the season and gets to face the Phillies next. They are a well below average offense at home and vs RHP (14.4 K-BB%) with just a 3.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week. They are a very favorable matchup with little adjustment necessary for a nearly neutral run environment.
Tyson Ross throws tons of sliders with which he generates lots of ground balls (61.5%) and strike outs (24.7%), while being death on RH batters. Control issues against LHBs have plagued him though, and that’s why he has just a mere 14.5 K-BB% this season with a slightly lesser mark on the road since last season. He also has a 13.3 HR/FB on the road since last season, but with such a high ground ball rate, that usually doesn’t hurt him. This is a tough park though and it bumps a neutral matchup into an unfavorable one. The Diamondbacks have a 15.5 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but strike out slightly more than average.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
NONE TODAY!!!
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ubaldo Jimenez was originally going to get the full write-up today, but he drives us all nuts. He walks six in one start and then strikes out eight in the next. That’s been his pattern for a long time and he had been pitching poorly for a month before a good start in Yankee Stadium of all places last time out. The reason to consider him would be that Boston is a poor road offense, but otherwise, he’s essentially my cutouff (along with Holland) tonight.
Derek Holland has gone at least seven innings in each of his last three starts, but has only struck out more than six once in six starts and has a well below average SwStr% with a lot of hard contact allowed (16.7 Hard-Soft%). The Astros are a difficult opponent here and though they strike out more than normal on the road and vs LHP, it’s probably not as much as you think.
Julio Teheran – Although he has been much better at home, we probably don’t want to test him against Toronto.
Nicholas Tropeano has estimators much lower than his ERA (.394 BABIP, 59.4 LOB%), but still around four (9.3 K-BB%) and he hasn’t even shown some of the control issues he’s had in the minors yet.
Jhoulys Chacin has pitched fairly well in two starts, both at home, but has allowed some hard contact (15.0 Hard-Soft%) and pitches in a tough park.
Chris Rusin is not much better on the road than he’s been at Coors.
Joe Kelly has just an 8.0 K-BB% over the last month with a 20.0 Hard-Soft%, but has just a .259 BABIP and 87.7 LOB%.
Phil Hughes starts his first game in over a month, will be on a pitch count, and hasn’t missed bats all season.
Alfredo Simon – Remember last year when a lot of people thought he was actually good because he had a low BABIP and high strand rate? His K-BB% is just 2.6 points different.
David Buchanan – Unlike Simon, nobody ever really thought he was good.
Ariel Pena – There’s nothing to see here. Move along.
Aaron Brooks was actually good in half of his six starts, but has gotten absolutely shelled in the other three with just a 12.9 K% over the last month.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 15.8% | 5.9% | Road | 12.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 10.8% | 8.1% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 21.0% | 7.3% | Road | 18.8% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.2% | 7.8% | Road | 14.6% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.7% |
| Ariel Pena | Brewers | 17.7% | 14.7% | Home | L14 Days | 17.7% | 14.7% | ||
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 16.3% | 7.0% | Home | 12.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 23.4% | 8.6% | Road | 23.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 18.1% | 8.0% | Home | 18.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 14.7% | 6.5% | Road | 14.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 4.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.6% | 6.1% | Road | 21.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 5.7% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 12.7% | 7.4% | Home | 11.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 13.6% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 18.6% | 3.1% | Home | 19.0% | 1.7% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.8% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 25.9% | 5.9% | Home | 25.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 19.8% | 7.0% | Home | 20.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 26.1% | 6.3% | Home | 27.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 3.7% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 23.2% | 7.3% | Home | 25.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 6.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.8% | 5.3% | Home | 21.3% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 15.5% | 10.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Diamondbacks | 15.6% | 10.3% | Home | 18.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.9% | 8.9% | Road | 16.5% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 10.4% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 26.9% | 9.0% | Road | 31.9% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 16.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 24.5% | 5.8% | Road | 24.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 22.0% | 2.8% | Home | 22.4% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 1.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 20.7% | 6.8% | Home | 21.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 11.3% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | 20.9% | 7.0% | Road | 22.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 6.1% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 12.8% | 4.6% | Road | 11.9% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | 16.4% | 7.1% | Road | 12.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 4.6% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 18.4% | 2.2% | Home | 17.8% | 1.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 27.1% | 5.2% | Road | 25.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 3.6% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.0% | 8.7% | Road | 16.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 12.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.4% | 9.3% | Road | 22.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 5.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.1% | 10.2% | Home | 20.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.5% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Home | 21.2% | 7.1% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.1% |
| Rays | Home | 22.8% | 7.2% | RH | 21.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.8% |
| Twins | Home | 19.1% | 7.0% | RH | 21.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 16.1% | 10.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.0% | 7.9% | RH | 19.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.0% | 11.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.2% | 6.1% | LH | 23.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.7% | 7.6% | RH | 20.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 8.9% |
| Reds | Road | 19.8% | 7.4% | RH | 19.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.5% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.4% | 8.4% | LH | 21.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.4% | 10.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.4% | 8.3% | RH | 19.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.4% | 8.4% | RH | 21.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.0% | 8.9% |
| Astros | Road | 22.4% | 7.5% | LH | 21.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Road | 18.7% | 7.1% | RH | 19.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 5.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.7% | 8.5% | LH | 26.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.8% | 5.9% | RH | 19.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 16.3% | 8.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.8% | 8.8% | RH | 19.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.3% | 7.7% | RH | 18.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 8.4% |
| Padres | Road | 21.5% | 7.0% | RH | 21.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.1% | 7.1% | RH | 22.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 10.8% |
| Giants | Home | 18.1% | 7.8% | LH | 18.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 12.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.5% | 7.5% | LH | 22.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 10.9% |
| Royals | Road | 16.5% | 5.5% | RH | 15.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 16.0% | 6.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.1% | 8.3% | RH | 18.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.4% |
| Indians | Home | 18.7% | 9.6% | RH | 18.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.9% |
| Braves | Home | 18.3% | 8.8% | LH | 20.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.0% | 8.1% | RH | 21.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 10.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.0% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.3% | 6.7% | RH | 20.4% | 6.0% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.4% |
| Mets | Home | 20.0% | 8.4% | RH | 19.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.8% | 12.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 8.0% | RH | 20.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 7.7% | RH | 17.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 24.6% | 10.4% | 8.3% | Road | 33.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Adam Warren | Yankees | 22.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | Road | 22.9% | 8.2% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 21.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | Road | 21.7% | 11.8% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 11.8% | 17.6% |
| Ariel Pena | Brewers | 18.2% | 0.0% | 10.0% | Home | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 10.0% | |||
| Brett Anderson | Dodgers | 14.8% | 13.5% | 3.2% | Home | 16.6% | 15.4% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 21.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | Road | 20.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 22.2% | 11.7% | 10.0% | Home | 21.3% | 6.8% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 21.4% | 16.0% | 10.4% | Road | 22.3% | 17.4% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | Road | 19.7% | 10.1% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 21.3% | 11.5% | 13.8% | Home | 19.9% | 12.2% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | 18.6% | 7.8% | 5.2% | Home | 20.4% | 9.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 17.5% | 12.2% | 6.8% | Home | 17.7% | 11.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | Home | 20.4% | 10.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 21.8% | 8.4% | 8.8% | Home | 24.0% | 4.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | Home | 20.4% | 3.9% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | Home | 20.8% | 12.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Diamondbacks | 21.4% | 13.7% | 8.4% | Home | 20.5% | 11.9% | 4.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 22.9% | 10.6% | 6.8% | Road | 19.8% | 14.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lamb | Reds | 25.6% | 10.3% | 17.9% | Road | 20.7% | 16.7% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.0% | 8.2% | 12.0% | Road | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 24.2% | 16.3% | 10.5% | Home | 24.3% | 20.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | Home | 20.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | 18.0% | 10.9% | 6.5% | Road | 24.2% | 11.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 21.8% | 8.1% | 10.7% | Road | 23.3% | 7.8% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | 17.2% | 0.0% | 5.2% | Road | 13.5% | 0.0% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 24.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | Home | 23.3% | 10.1% | 12.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 22.7% | 13.0% | 9.1% | Road | 23.9% | 14.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.2% | 8.8% | 7.1% | Road | 16.7% | 11.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.0% | 10.7% | 8.4% | Road | 22.0% | 13.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 15.8% | 26.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.8% | 11.7% | 11.0% | Home | 22.6% | 11.9% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Home | 21.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% | RH | 21.1% | 11.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Rays | Home | 21.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | RH | 21.3% | 10.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.6% | 11.0% | 15.1% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 12.6% | 11.2% | RH | 20.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 11.3% | 14.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 11.3% | 10.6% | RH | 22.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.3% | 15.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 19.9% | 12.4% | 11.0% | LH | 21.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 15.4% | 11.9% | 22.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.6% | 11.3% | 7.5% | RH | 21.3% | 10.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.8% | 13.5% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | RH | 20.9% | 10.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.5% | 13.8% | 6.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.6% | 13.4% | 8.5% | LH | 23.0% | 12.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.0% | 16.7% | 14.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.6% | 12.2% | 8.8% | RH | 19.1% | 10.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 16.2% | 15.9% | 11.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 13.3% | 8.9% | RH | 20.8% | 13.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.4% | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Astros | Road | 21.1% | 11.5% | 10.6% | LH | 19.2% | 13.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 14.1% | 12.8% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Road | 19.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | RH | 20.4% | 11.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.4% | 11.3% | 7.7% | LH | 23.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 12.1% | 10.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.5% | 11.3% | 8.3% | RH | 20.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.1% | 4.7% | 9.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.2% | 12.4% | 7.9% | RH | 20.9% | 13.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.5% | 10.8% | 8.5% | RH | 20.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.4% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Padres | Road | 19.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | RH | 19.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.6% | 16.5% | 7.9% | RH | 20.5% | 15.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 27.1% | 16.7% |
| Giants | Home | 20.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | LH | 21.4% | 8.6% | 5.2% | L7Days | 21.0% | 10.9% | 7.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.7% | 11.4% | 5.5% | LH | 22.3% | 11.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 12.1% | 5.2% |
| Royals | Road | 22.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | RH | 21.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.6% | 11.9% | 18.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.5% | 14.1% | 13.8% | RH | 19.6% | 15.1% | 12.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 20.0% | 12.7% |
| Indians | Home | 23.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | RH | 21.4% | 10.1% | 12.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 14.5% | 9.7% |
| Braves | Home | 21.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | LH | 20.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.1% | 6.4% | 12.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.8% | RH | 20.0% | 12.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.0% | 15.6% | 9.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.5% | 11.2% | 7.2% | RH | 21.6% | 9.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.8% | 10.8% | 8.7% | RH | 22.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.2% | 11.3% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% | RH | 22.1% | 11.0% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 13.4% | 11.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 10.5% | 7.6% | RH | 21.4% | 10.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.7% | 14.9% | 4.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | RH | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 15.4% | 5.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 17.0% | 8.3% | 2.05 | 12.9% | 6.6% | 1.95 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 18.8% | 8.7% | 2.16 | 30.0% | 13.7% | 2.19 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 14.9% | 8.2% | 1.82 | 13.5% | 7.9% | 1.71 |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 17.7% | 8.0% | 2.21 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 2.21 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 15.9% | 6.9% | 2.30 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 2.10 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 24.3% | 10.3% | 2.36 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 1.97 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 18.1% | 8.7% | 2.08 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 1.99 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 14.9% | 8.5% | 1.75 | 12.6% | 5.6% | 2.25 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 19.6% | 10.5% | 1.87 | 23.1% | 11.5% | 2.01 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 10.0% | 6.3% | 1.59 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 0.00 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 20.7% | 7.8% | 2.65 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 2.77 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 23.5% | 10.8% | 2.18 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.95 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 19.8% | 7.7% | 2.57 | 25.7% | 8.2% | 3.13 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 26.6% | 12.6% | 2.11 | 25.4% | 14.8% | 1.72 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 | 26.9% | 10.8% | 2.49 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 18.2% | 9.9% | 1.84 | 21.5% | 9.8% | 2.19 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.04 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.04 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 18.5% | 7.6% | 2.43 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 2.13 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 26.9% | 10.8% | 2.49 | 26.9% | 10.4% | 2.59 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.4% | 10.3% | 2.37 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 2.43 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 24.8% | 9.5% | 2.61 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 2.61 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.0% | 10.5% | 1.90 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 2.19 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 20.1% | 8.6% | 2.34 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 2.09 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 11.2% | 4.9% | 2.29 | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.93 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 18.5% | 10.8% | 1.71 | 18.6% | 10.3% | 1.81 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.0% | 5.5% | 2.55 | |||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 26.6% | 9.9% | 2.69 | 30.8% | 12.0% | 2.57 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.5% | 7.4% | 2.36 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 2.13 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 24.7% | 12.1% | 2.04 | 23.1% | 11.9% | 1.94 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 21.2% | 8.3% | 2.55 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.78 |
Jacob deGrom has increased his SwStr to almost 15% over the last month, while his K% has actually dropped slightly.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 7.44 | 4.19 | -3.25 | 4.37 | -3.07 | 4.03 | -3.41 | 9.49 | 4.69 | -4.8 | 4.49 | -5 | 4.12 | -5.37 |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 3.29 | 4.07 | 0.78 | 4.09 | 0.8 | 3.79 | 0.5 | 3 | 2.29 | -0.71 | 2.61 | -0.39 | 3.31 | 0.31 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 4.94 | 4.88 | -0.06 | 4.77 | -0.17 | 4.77 | -0.17 | 5.34 | 5.41 | 0.07 | 5.57 | 0.23 | 6.49 | 1.15 |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 4.5 | 5.35 | 0.85 | 5.73 | 1.23 | 3.89 | -0.61 | 4.5 | 5.35 | 0.85 | 5.73 | 1.23 | 3.89 | -0.61 |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 3.36 | 3.52 | 0.16 | 3.58 | 0.22 | 3.94 | 0.58 | 3.07 | 3.4 | 0.33 | 3.6 | 0.53 | 4.58 | 1.51 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.12 | 3.44 | 0.32 | 3.28 | 0.16 | 3.22 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 3.08 | -2.52 | 2.69 | -2.91 | 1.83 | -3.77 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.55 | 4.01 | 0.46 | 3.9 | 0.35 | 3.96 | 0.41 | 4.82 | 4.78 | -0.04 | 4.59 | -0.23 | 7.27 | 2.45 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 5.14 | 4.18 | -0.96 | 4 | -1.14 | 4.56 | -0.58 | 7.14 | 4.7 | -2.44 | 4.54 | -2.6 | 5.21 | -1.93 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 3.89 | 3.94 | 0.05 | 3.96 | 0.07 | 3.72 | -0.17 | 2.43 | 3.57 | 1.14 | 3.5 | 1.07 | 3.26 | 0.83 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 9.11 | 5.46 | -3.65 | 5.38 | -3.73 | 5.69 | -3.42 | 10.8 | 6.99 | -3.81 | 8.07 | -2.73 | 10.64 | -0.16 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 3.13 | 3.57 | 0.44 | 3.67 | 0.54 | 4.19 | 1.06 | 2.97 | 3.51 | 0.54 | 3.61 | 0.64 | 3.86 | 0.89 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 3.49 | 3.28 | -0.21 | 3.24 | -0.25 | 3.52 | 0.03 | 5.29 | 3.36 | -1.93 | 3.49 | -1.8 | 4.54 | -0.75 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 3.87 | 3.96 | 0.09 | 3.84 | -0.03 | 3.61 | -0.26 | 0.88 | 3.05 | 2.17 | 3.08 | 2.2 | 2.07 | 1.19 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.4 | 3.09 | 0.69 | 3.02 | 0.62 | 2.88 | 0.48 | 4.3 | 3.23 | -1.07 | 2.98 | -1.32 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.21 | 3.76 | 0.55 | 3.84 | 0.63 | 3.31 | 0.1 | 3.68 | 3.29 | -0.39 | 3.53 | -0.15 | 3.01 | -0.67 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 4.89 | 4.15 | -0.74 | 4.25 | -0.64 | 4.22 | -0.67 | 5.46 | 4.17 | -1.29 | 4.48 | -0.98 | 5.09 | -0.37 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 2.7 | 3.63 | 0.93 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 4.12 | 1.42 | 2.7 | 3.64 | 0.94 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 4.12 | 1.42 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 4.7 | 4.26 | -0.44 | 4.11 | -0.59 | 4.14 | -0.56 | 1.67 | 4.35 | 2.68 | 4.08 | 2.41 | 3.58 | 1.91 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 5.18 | 3.6 | -1.58 | 3.79 | -1.39 | 3.63 | -1.55 | 4.67 | 3.62 | -1.05 | 3.79 | -0.88 | 3.55 | -1.12 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.5 | 3.27 | -0.23 | 3.15 | -0.35 | 3.01 | -0.49 | 4.91 | 3.55 | -1.36 | 3.43 | -1.48 | 3.55 | -1.36 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 2.85 | 3.16 | 0.31 | 3.44 | 0.59 | 4.68 | 1.83 | 2.85 | 3.16 | 0.31 | 3.44 | 0.59 | 4.68 | 1.83 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.38 | 4.26 | -0.12 | 4.22 | -0.16 | 4.56 | 0.18 | 4.11 | 4.47 | 0.36 | 4.62 | 0.51 | 5.72 | 1.61 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 4.58 | 3.66 | -0.92 | 3.8 | -0.78 | 4.24 | -0.34 | 5 | 3.58 | -1.42 | 3.69 | -1.31 | 4.37 | -0.63 |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 3.72 | 4.62 | 0.9 | 4.33 | 0.61 | 4.16 | 0.44 | 6.98 | 5.11 | -1.87 | 4.48 | -2.5 | 4.9 | -2.08 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 5.66 | 4 | -1.66 | 4 | -1.66 | 2.08 | -3.58 | 9.35 | 4.01 | -5.34 | 3.85 | -5.5 | 1.99 | -7.36 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.49 | 4.48 | -0.01 | 4.37 | -0.12 | 4.82 | 0.33 | |||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 4.3 | 3.13 | -1.17 | 3.13 | -1.17 | 3.37 | -0.93 | 3.33 | 2.54 | -0.79 | 2.9 | -0.43 | 3.76 | 0.43 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.99 | 4.54 | 0.55 | 4.49 | 0.5 | 4.46 | 0.47 | 5.34 | 4.54 | -0.8 | 4.72 | -0.62 | 5.12 | -0.22 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.24 | 3.43 | 0.19 | 3.24 | 0 | 3.07 | -0.17 | 2.51 | 3.43 | 0.92 | 3.54 | 1.03 | 3.61 | 1.1 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 4.22 | 3.87 | -0.35 | 3.73 | -0.49 | 4.06 | -0.16 | 5.59 | 4.46 | -1.13 | 4.26 | -1.33 | 4.83 | -0.76 |
Adam Warren has somehow gotten away with an 8.9 HR/FB in Yankee Stadium, which explains the FIP. He has managed contact well, as mentioned above. The BABIP isn’t low in as much it’s lower than what the Yankees generally allow, most of his indicators are fine, so I don’t have too much of a problem with this. It would all seem to paint an about average picture, but you have to remember a lot of that comes from the bullpen.
Carlos Martinez has increased his K-BB to 18.6% over the last month in which he has not allowed a single HR, but has a .407 BABIP and 58.1 LOB%. His 28.4 LD% and 12.8 Hard-Soft% are both too high, but he also has a 51.9 GB%. Obviously, he’s going to have to make adjustments to refrain from allowing such hard contact, but these are things that should normalize as velocity charts give us no indication of tiring.
Collin McHugh – I’ve expected some favorable regression to the BABIP for most the season, due to solid, but not spectacular indicators (IFFB%, Z-Contact%, LD%) and though his season rate may still be a bit high, that’s what’s happened over the last month with a .264 BABIP. That’s accompanies by a 16.4 K-BB% that’s definitely better than his season rate, but also and 84.9 LOB% that he won’t be able to sustain.
Felix Hernandez got smashed in his first of five starts over the last 30 days and wasn’t that great in his next one either, but has improved significantly over his last three (24 IP – 5 ER – 24 K).
J.A. Happ – In addition to the likely K% drop we talked about above, he’s stranding 95.4% of his runners with a .237 BABIP and just a 5.6 HR/FB over the last month. Still, if his ERA and estimators run at anything below three and a half, that’s a major improvement and a good pitcher.
Jacob deGrom actually has a normal 10.1 HR/FB overall this season, but the reason for his discrepancy between ERA and non-FIP estimators is more due a .260 BABIP, which seems to be borderline sustainable when measured by BABIP chart indicators and team defense with an 80.2 LOB% that’s just a bit too high.
Jake Odorizzi has a 7.7 HR/FB with a home park that makes this number pretty close to being sustainable or at least nothing to be too concerned about.
John Lamb has an ERA about a run and a half above his estimators due to a .398 BABIP. His chart indicators below are incredible (IFFB, Zone Contact), but a 25.6 LD% is a bit high, though we did mention already that he generates more weak contact than hard. This number would seem in line for at least 100 points of regression.
John Lester has been inconsistent over his last five starts (some good, some bad), but has ERA estimators similar not much higher than his season rates.
Stephen Strasburg has been a little bit HR prone (13.1 HR/FB), but also seems to suffer some of the ineptitude of his defense in a .320 BABIP. I have more faith in the 67.1 LOB% improving though.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 0.286 | 0.367 | 0.081 | 9.3% | 89.5% |
| Adam Warren | NYY | 0.300 | 0.271 | -0.029 | 10.7% | 86.3% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.304 | 0.286 | -0.018 | 11.8% | 89.5% |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 0.302 | 0.227 | -0.075 | 10.0% | 95.5% |
| Brett Anderson | LOS | 0.298 | 0.303 | 0.005 | 2.1% | 92.4% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.296 | 0.326 | 0.03 | 6.2% | 87.5% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.283 | 0.292 | 0.009 | 10.3% | 87.4% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.316 | 0.342 | 0.026 | 10.0% | 87.9% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.280 | 0.306 | 0.026 | 11.1% | 86.2% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 0.318 | 0.389 | 0.071 | 13.3% | 92.4% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.293 | 0.255 | -0.038 | 10.0% | 91.8% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.294 | 0.292 | -0.002 | 8.2% | 88.2% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.302 | 0.311 | 0.009 | 13.5% | 87.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.285 | 0.260 | -0.025 | 9.5% | 84.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.284 | 0.276 | -0.008 | 10.1% | 85.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.311 | 0.305 | -0.006 | 9.8% | 87.6% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ARI | 0.295 | 0.237 | -0.058 | 0.0% | 95.5% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.307 | 0.316 | 0.009 | 5.8% | 91.7% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 0.289 | 0.398 | 0.109 | 17.9% | 81.4% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.294 | 0.312 | 0.018 | 7.9% | 86.9% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.292 | 0.167 | -0.125 | 7.4% | 90.3% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.309 | 0.290 | -0.019 | 9.9% | 85.4% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 0.286 | 0.275 | -0.011 | 6.1% | 91.5% |
| Mark Buehrle | TOR | 0.281 | 0.281 | 0 | 8.0% | 92.1% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0.286 | 0.394 | 0.108 | 7.4% | 83.5% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.300 | 0.301 | 0.001 | 10.8% | 92.2% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.305 | 0.320 | 0.015 | 13.1% | 85.2% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.293 | 0.274 | -0.019 | 7.7% | 90.6% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.300 | 0.318 | 0.018 | 8.7% | 85.8% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.294 | 0.309 | 0.015 | 12.1% | 88.9% |
Carlos Martinez – We just mentioned above that his BABIP has gone through the roof over the past month and the reasons for that.
Josh Tomlin somehow has just a 16.1 LD% that has played a great part in an incredibly unsustainable BABIP. His other chart indicators are well below average, though we should note how much the Cleveland defense seems to have improved in recent months due to personnel decisions. The low LD rate is stunning due to the great amount of hard contact he’s allowed, but that’s shown up more in the 10 balls that have left the yard in 41 innings than in his BABIP.
Kris Medlen has allowed a HR in each of his four starts for a 19.0 HR/FB, which should decrease over time as his 61.5 LOB% over that span should increase as well.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
John Lamb (9t) hasn’t really had control issues outside his last start and does face a tough offense, but it’s in a great park and they are better vs RHP than lefties. I’ll take a 26.9 K% at a low price, except where it’s climbed to average on DraftKings.
Stephen Strasburg (1t) has pitched well when healthy. Lots of strikeouts and the Phillies at a much more reasonable price than expected? Yes please.
Value Tier Two
Adam Warren is in a good spot at a very low price in most places. He’s capable of at least going out there and not embarrassing himself in a starting role.
Brett Anderson (9t) is not going to generate strikeouts, but still gives you tons of weak ground balls for a below average price in a matchup as favorable as you’re ever going to see as a lefty against the Rockies tonight.
J.A. Happ (5) is not nearly as good as portrayed by his ERA in Pittsburgh, but he has been good and his price hasn’t changed much. He faces a Cubs lineup that has a tendency to strike out in a good home park.
Jacob deGrom (1t) is your most expensive pitcher in most places tonight, but the cost is not too outrageous and its well deserves for a great home matchup against the lowly Marlins.
Felix Hernandez (3) competes with deGrom for top price tag in some places and while he’s had a down year for him, he has pitched better and gone deeper into games in recent starts. He’s in a great spot at home against the Angels tonight.
Value Tier Three
Kris Medlen hasn’t been great as a starter, but probably hasn’t been as bad as his ERA and even in a tough matchup in Cleveland, he’s worth more than a near minimum price tag on DraftKings.
Carlos Martinez (6t) is a risk at a fairly high price as he has struggled lately, which is backed up by some hard contact rates and pitches in a tough park in Milwaukee, but it’s against a bad offense and his K-BB has actually increased over the last month. There may be some upside to a guy who may be more lightly owned tonight.
Chris Heston hasn’t been what he was the first few months of the season by any measure, but has a very favorable matchup in a great park for a below average cost.
Jon Lester (4) has been inconsistent and is one of the higher priced pitchers tonight, but you basically know what he is and gets an OK matchup in a great park for LHPs.
Jake Odorizzi (6t) is priced possibly a little too high on DraftKings, but for other sites, he generally pitches well at home with an ability to suppress HRs in a favorable park. His strikeout rate is up over the last month and the Yankees are scuffling a little bit.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Josh Tomlin (6t) – I’m not crazy about the higher DraftKings price and you’re concerned about the hard contact and fact that he’s facing the low strikeout Royals, but they are a below average road offense and also the low walk Royals, while he has an elite K-BB above 20%.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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